开发区生命周期的研究
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摘要
中国经济在近二十多年来取得了引人注目的成就,经济保持了高速增长,改革开放释放出来制度创新力量是中国经济增长的原动力,特别是在经济特区政策示范效应下而诞生的开发区模式对于区域经济发展具有重要意义。
     开发区是人为构建的一种制度安排,开发区模式到底有着怎样的生命力呢?有人认为随着开发区制度普遍化开发区必死,是不是这样呢?
     本文借用了生命周期的概念并以生命周期相关理论为基础,从制度演变的视角探讨开发区发展模式。本文的内容是沿着以下思路展开的:
     首先,开发区是否具有生命周期?开发区生命周期的内涵和阶段性特征如何?
     本文开发区的生命周期是指开发区制度生命周期的演变过程,开发区初期依靠政策优惠和政策落差所产生的制度创新收益推动地区经济发展,随着开发区制度的普遍化和时间的累积,这种政策落差效应逐渐平缓,开发区的制度创新因素逐渐内化为区内企业集群的发展能力,即由集群而产生的企业间的学习能力、技术创新能力、市场创新能力,成为社会经济发展制度安排中的内生的稳定的自我发展的能力,这是制度蛹化,凤凰涅磐的艰辛历程。
     开发区尽管从名称或者形式淡化,但是开发区并没有因此而衰落。开发区的生命不同于自然界生物生老病死,它是一个经济组织演化的过程,是其不断自我更新和成长的过程,它是在全球经济分工、地区经济竞争中逐步演化而成的,不同的地区会逐渐形成具有地方特色的产业群落。
     尽管中国开发区的发展历史还不常,但是人们已经可以看到:
     在开发区发展的第一阶段,是通过政策落差推进区域经济的发展,促进某些区域企业聚集、产业群落产生。政策落差在短时间内所创造的经济增长在广泛的范围内产生了强烈的冲击和示范效应。开发区的各项制度在空间上扩散,这种扩散既有自上而下的政府推动,也有自下而上对制度创新的需求,各地方政府间对制度创新收益的竞争,各利益主体围绕着开发区所产生的利益而进行博弈,这种博弈也必然引起开发区制度的调整。
     随着经济体制的改革深入,政策落差所产生的示范效应和聚集效应逐渐扩散开来,从局部到全国,开发区逐步进入了“弱制度化阶段”。
     开发区生命周期的第二阶段是“弱制度化阶段”,外在的区域空间上的制度差异和政策落差伴随着整个经济体制改革的深化和市场的发展逐渐平淡,但是开发区的制度创新并没有停顿,区域间依然存在着一定的制度差异,或者说制度壁垒。
     由于初期积累的自我发展能力的差异,开发区发展路径分化,部分开发区获得一定的产业发展基础,自我增强的特征显著;部分开发区并没有从制度创新中获得自我发展的能力。这主要从进入各开发区的企业数量来判断,在一定时间内(如一个财政年度内)当开发区内入驻企业远远大于迁出企业,证明该开发区的聚集能力增强,反之当开发区内的企业陆续不断地迁到其他区域,说明该开发区在区域竞争能力下降,因此在“弱制度化阶段”从企业的迁入和迁出能够直观地反映出开发区发展能力的差异。
     开发区生命周期的第三阶段是“后制度化阶段”,即纯粹由技术进步和市场需求等所引致的产业升级所带动的区域经济发展,原先的通过人为的特殊政策赋予区域空间落差的制度因素逐渐弥散开去,成为社会化普遍采用的政策。但是,开发区制度创新所形成的对社会经济发展的推动力量并不会因为特殊制度安排的弥散而消散,开发区生命周期中的制度创新因素逐渐内化为区内企业的集群自我发展的能力。
     第二层面的问题是:开发区从一个阶段到另一个阶段,这种制度是如何演变的?这种制度演变反过来又是如何影响开发区的发展轨迹的?
     本文将开发区制度演变的机制分为利益博弈机制和成本收益均衡机制。尽管所有的博弈都是围绕着“利益”而展开的,但是本文中将利益具体化、细化、量化,当利益的总量变动到怎样的水平时,新的制度安排才会出现呢?
     把开发区整体视为一个可以通过投入—产出模型来分析的经济组织,开发区有其自身的“收益”来源,这种收益在不同主体之间进行分配,中央政府、地方政府、开发区内的企业,当然还有开发区的居民。不同主体之间的目标是不一致的,存在着明显的利益博弈,这种博弈将导致开发区制度重新安排,从而实现制度创新。开发区的核心制度是财税制度、土地制度、劳动力流动制度,因此开发区的利益就是来源于财税制度、土地制度、劳动力流动制度创新而带来的收益。
     开发区制度演进的另一个机制是成本收益机制,不同主体之间利益分配的对象是开发区的净收益。本文将开发区的成本和收益因素一一分解,尤其是开发区的隐性成本部分,隐性成本逐渐显性化,制约着开发区未来的发展,成本和收益的均衡点总是在变动中的。
     第三,开发区生命周期理论对未来中国开发区发展有怎样的启示呢?
     尽管在全国范围内地区之间的制度壁垒已经逐渐缩小,开发区之间所表现出来的区域竞争能力差距更为显著,一些区域在开发区及周边地区人才聚集、技术进步、本土中小企业的衍生,地区产业基础已经建立,开发区成为地区经济增长点。但是,我们也不无忧虑地看到,开发区发展存在的种种弊端,如盲目占用土地、资源利用率低下等等,并由此而给地方经济和社会发展造成隐患。在文章最后作者归纳了制约中国开发区发展的三个主要约束因素:制度约束、资源约束、成本约束,要通过创新突破这些制约因素,推动开发区自我更新。中国开发区应该立足于培育地区主导性产业的发展,孵化本土中小企业,培育地区一体化的要素市场,通过自生的制度、技术、市场的创新而不断发展。
In recent 20years ,China has keeping surprising growth rate, the reform and
    open policy bring great power which push economic growth, especially the
    development-zone model become regional development strategy under the special
    district model effecting. As designed institution, how long wills this model can be
    live?Some one said that this zone will die in the future when special arrangement
    become homogeneity. Does this model die sooner?
    Thus the first task is to answer whether development-zone has life cycle and what is
    the feature of them in different stage.
    This article use the term "life cycle "and apply relative theory to research
    development-zone model with the tool of institution analysis.
    In this paper development-zone's life means that a evolution process which
    experience institution designation, institution adjusting and arrangement ,from
    inform institution to form, from part area to all area ,from special arrangement to
    homogeneity institution. When the policy gap become smooth the development-zone
    accumulates continues internal self-develop power.
    Thus, development-zone life cycle is different the cycle of nature things .It is
    evolution process of an organization and a process of self-renew and growth, it live in
    the global working divide and regional competition. Different district come to being
    division industry cluster.
    From China experience, people have seen that different stage although it has short
    history.
    The first stage is strong institution stage .In this stage institution innovation create
    institution barrier and gap which push development zone growth rapidly .Because
    of geographic connection, investors mostly come from Hongkang , Macao and
    Taiwan ,and lots of money was invested in the eastern and southtern area.These
    area become growth plot. Institution innovation began to expand and be copied in
    bigger area for these strong effecting appeared in short time .This expand trend come
    from government and bottom demand. Interest competition between them and this
    competition bring new institution arrangement .Therefore; the model effecting and
    accumulation acquired from institution gap expand from part to all country. The
    development-zone model enters into weak institution stage.
    In this stage, extra area institution gap become smooth as the deepening of economic
    reform and marketing reform, but institution creation do not stop, institution
    difference and institution barrier still exist. Due to self-development capacity is
    different, development zones appear distinguish. Part of them have accumulated
    industry base and can self develop ,but part of them do not .This can be observed by
    enterprise go out-in-rate in these zones .If in certain stage such as a fiscal
    year, companies which entered in development -zone are more than go out
    ones ,it is said that development zone have great attraction ,on the contrary, it means
    that this area economic competition come down. So, in this stage go out-in -rate can
    tell us regional constant development capacity.
    The third stage is after institution stage. Special institution arrangement has
    expanded in all area; technology improvement and market demand boost regional
    industry growth. But development-zone institution
    Strength will not die away when it be expand .Institution innovation strength come
    to being industry cluster development strength which include learning ability and
    technology creation ability and marketing innovation ability.
    The second problem is how the special institution evaluated and how the evolution
    effect the development zone locus .In this article the author distinguishes
    evolution path to interest game and balance of cost - gains .We take the development
    zone as an economic organize which can be revalued by putting-earning model. The
    gain from development zone will be shared by the center government, local
    government, internal enterprise and also include local residents. Because everyone has
    its own aim, they begin to compete gains from development zone. On the contrary, the
    competition will change some special institution, such as financial institution, land
    usage institution and labor flow institution which are key institution.
    As to the balance mechanism of cost-gain, the author split cost items and gain items, it
    looks that the invisible cost is very huge and it will baffle the zone future
    development.
    Thirdly, Apply the life theory to analyze China development zone .It testify that
    institution is vital factor to those special development zones which has double effect.
    The author consider that China development zone have grown from the first stage to
    the second stage .Local government should cultivate regional industry ,incubate small scale enterprise and unify the factor market .At the end the author summarize three vital factor which baffle these region development. Those factors are resources restriction, cost restriction and institution restriction. The development zone must conquer that restriction and fulfill self renovation.
引文
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    1、费农在1966年《产品周期中的国际投资与国际贸易》一文中首次提出产品生命周期理论,核心是解释国际贸易和直接对外投资是为什么会发生,又是如何发生的,随着产品生命周期的演变,技术在发达国家之间专业,从而国际贸易和直接对外投资在发达国家之间发生。
    2、参见 薛求知 徐钟伟 企业生命周期:一个系统的解析浙江社会科学2005.5第192—197
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    4、彼得·圣吉:《第五项修炼—学习型组织的艺术与实务》,三联书店1997年版。
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    9、Kaldor, N., "The case for regional policies", In Further essays on economic theory, 139-54. London: Duckworth. 1978 "The role of increasing returns, technical progress and cumulative causation in the theory of international trade and economic growth" , Economic Appliquee 34 (4). Reprinted in The essential Kaldor (1989), ed. F., Targetti and A., Thirlwall, 327-50. London: Duckworth.,1981 "Interregional trade and cumulative causation", In Economics without equilibrium, 57-79. New York: Sharpe. 1985
    10、Koopmans T.C., 1957, Three Essays on the State of Economic Science, New York, McGraw-Hill.
    11、UNCTAD, 1998, "Promoting and Sustaining SMEs Clusters and Networks for Development", Commission on Enterprise Business
    12、Ahokangas, P., Hyry, M. and Rasanen, P., 1999, "Small technology-based firms in fast-growing regional cluster", New England Journal of Entrepreneurship: vol. 2, pp. 19-26.
    13、Fotopoulos, Georgios, and Spence, Nigel, 2001, "Regional variations of firm births, deaths and growth patterns in the UK, 1980-1991", Growth and Change vol. 32, spring.
    14、Thomson, R. (ed.), 1993, Learning and Technological Change, New York: St Mation's Press.
    15、Jeff Saperstein Dr.Daniel Rouach区域财富-世界九大高科技园区的经验清华大学出版社2003,这九大高科技园区分别在美国、爱尔兰、瑞典斯德哥尔摩、德国、英国、法国、台湾地区、以色列、印度。
    16、参见科斯 诺思 威廉姆森 克劳德.梅纳尔编 制度、契约与组织—从新制度经济学角度的透视 经济科学出版社 2003。
    17、Warr, P Export Processing .Zones :the economics of Enclave Manufacturing ,The World Bank Research Observer ,4(1),65-87
    18、Jayanthakumaran .K An Overview of Export Processing Zones Selected Asian Countries [In] Department of Economics University of Wolongong. 2002
    19、Carden. Enclave cost and profit analyse:in development country. Econnomy Eview ,1986.9, pp426-438
    20、Devereux Johu , Review article free zones ,development and the new international division of labour. Oxford Economic papers. Oct. 1995.
    21、Facchini. Giovanni ,Willmann ,Gerald ,the gains from duty free zones , [J]Journal of international economics Dec. vol. 49 issue 2 pp 403-12,1999.
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    24、Chen, Social Cost-benefit Analysis of China' s Shenzhen Special Economic Zone [J]Development Policy Review, 1993. 11(3), 261-71.
    25、参见桑百川 中国为什么还要利用外资 对外经济贸易 2005,1:67.
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    1. Krugman, 1980, "Scale economies, product differentiation and the pattern of trade", Amercan Economic Review 70, pp, 950-959. 1991 "Increasing returns and economic geography", Journal of Political Economy 99, pp, 483-99.
    2. Kaldor, N. , "The case for regional policies", In Further essays on economic theory, 139-54. London: Duckworth. 1978 "The role of increasing returns, technical progress and cumulative causation in the theory of international trade and economic growth", Economic Appliquee 34 (4). Reprinted in The essential Kaldor (1989), ed. F., Targetti and A., Thirlwall, 327-50. London: Duckworth.,1981 "Interregional trade and cumulative causation", In Economics without equilibrium, 57-79. New York: Sharpe. 1985
    3.参见 鲍克 中国开发区研究 2002,新加坡政府构建了庞大的开发区园区,在政府主导下的开发区有着十分长远的完整的规划设计。这种设计成为我国开发区设计开发区的参考样本之一。
    4.参见 解放日报 2001年5月24日 第一二版
    5.安纳利·萨克森宁,《地区优势:硅谷和128公路地区的文化与竞争》,上海远东出版社,1999
    6. Annalee Saxenian ,Jinn-Yuh, Paper for International Symposium on East Asian Economy and Japanese Industry at a Turning Point . 1999
    7.参见:鄢烈山 2006年4月13日,东方早报评论版。“事实也正是这样。对于当时的普通老百姓来说,他们吃不饱、穿不暖,连肥皂、火柴、灯油都要凭票限量供应,所谓“国民经济到了崩溃的边缘”不是丑化和恫吓,而是一种无日无之的生存体验和沉重压力;而对于具有国际视野的邓小平等中央领导人,更有与周边国家发展速度相比较而产生的紧迫感。正是这种种内外因素,促成了真理标准大讨论,达成了“不改革开放,只能是死路一条”的基本共识,最终促使我们在实现现代化的路径上选择了市场取。”
    8.详见:陆幸生 往前走 别回头 新民周刊2006年1月26日这 篇袁庚的访谈记录了蛇口工业区诞生的历史。1978年,已经61岁的袁庚被交通部党组委派赴港参与招商局的领导工作。1979年1月26日,叶飞给李先念副主席去信,请他抽空听取袁庚汇报并给予指示。1月31日,大年初四,袁庚接到通知,让他进中南海汇报。袁庚表示:要把香港有利条件,如资金、技术和国内土地、劳动力结合起来。李先念连连点头:“现在就是要把香港外汇和国内结合起来用,不仅要结合广东,而且要和福建、上海等连起来 考虑。”袁庚想请中央大力支持,在宝安县的蛇口划出一块地段,作为招商局工业区用地。这个地方就是后来的蛇口工业园区。
    9.资料来源于商务部外资司网站,2004年的研究专题,我国国家级开发区发展历程。
    10.英属(The British Virgin Islands)维尔京群岛是一个面积只有153平方公里,有1.95万人人口的小岛,位于大西洋和加勒比海之间,背风群岛的北端。原始土著居民为加勒比地区的印第安人。1493年哥伦布发现该岛。1672年被英国兼并。1872年成为英国殖民地背风群岛的一部分,受背风群岛总督管辖至1960年。此后该岛由被任命的首席部长负责管理。正是这样一个小岛因为其宽松的注册制度,税收和严格的保密制度,这个地方已经成为国际上离岸资本最主要的注册地。离岸公司具有高度的信息保密性,没有外汇管制,更不用承担沉重的税务负担。所有的离岸开发区均不同程度地规定了离岸公司所取得的营业收入和利润免交当地税,有的甚至免交遗产税。如果企业通过设立离岸公司妥善安排税务,就能取得合理避税的结果。离岸金融中心因此被称为“避税天堂”。成立离岸公司还是企业避开关税壁垒的有效途径。企业,尤其是发展中国家的企业向美国等发达国家出口产品,通常需要申请配额及一系列的相关手续,为此需要多花费一两倍的成本。如果该企业拥有一家海外离岸公司,由企业向离岸公司出口产品,再由离岸公司向发达国家出口,就有可能规避关税壁垒和出口配额限制等。此外,部分企业开展跨国经营可能会受到母国政府的种种限制,而这点在发展中国家特别突出。在这种情况下,离岸公司便捷的申请过程和优惠的税收政策就显得相当具有吸引力,注册一家海外离岸公司是企业走向世界、开展跨国业务的捷径,也成为企业避税的天堂。
    1.参见:林尚立、朱德米 经济特区的政治发展 山西人民出版社2004,第101—105页。
    2.参见:蔡叻制度、趋同与人文发展 中国人民大学出版社 2004
    3.参见:鲍克 中国开发区研究 人民出版社2002,第49页。
    4.保罗.史牟科罗兰.怀特东亚地区的分权化 世界银行报告2005,11月
    5.参见:林毅夫 关于制度变迁的理论 盛洪 中国的过渡经济学 经济科学出版社 2003
    6.转引自钟伟 覃东海 外商投资与政府间激励 管理世界 2003年10期
    7.钟伟 覃东海 外商投资与政府间激励 管理世界 2003年10期
    8. Mei Wen Relocation and Agglomeration of Chinese Industry, [R]Working paper, Australian National University. 2002
    9.参见:杨瑞龙 我国制度变迁方式转换的三阶段论 经济研究 1998,第1期
    10.陆幸生 袁庚:往前走 别回头 新民周刊2006年1月26日刊出,蛇口工业开发区有着比较独特的历史背景,其创始人袁庚的访谈对于了解这段历史很有帮助,对于理解改革开发初期开发区建设的艰难也很多启发。
    11.皮黔生 王恺 走出孤岛 上海 三联书店出版 2004
    12. Tiebout ,J, 1956 ,h pure theory of local expenditures ,Joural of Political Economy ,64,416-424.
    13.国土资源调查组报告,主要由蒋省三、刘守英撰写《财经》杂志记者常晓红改编发表于2006年3月12日的《财经》。地方政府之所以采用土地征用和土地储备等方式垄断土地供应市场,又与财税制度相关。在地方所得税一减再减的情况下,地方财政收入已经变成了“土地财政”。在东部一些发达县、市,由建筑业和房地产业创造的税收,是地方税收中增幅最大的两大产业,增幅高达50%至100%。这两项税收占到地方税收的37%以上。西部地区政府也选择了城市扩张,从建筑业和房地产业的发展中开辟税源,增加政府收入。2003年,西安市某区地方税收贡献最大的分别为:建筑业61%、房地产业11%、交通运输业7%。2003年建筑业创造的税收将近1999年基数的6倍,房地产业创造的税收更是1999年的20倍。”并且在发达地区,土地出让金数额巨大,成为地方政府财政预算外收入的最主要来源。土地价格一般随着经济增长而更快速度上涨,这一方面缘于土地作为商品的供给垄断性,另一方面由于土地的资产属性而导致的价格资本化。
    14.周维颖 新产业区演进的经济分析 上海:复旦大学出版社 2004年附录部分。
    15.参见:施昌奎 京、津、沪、穗、渝的制造业成本比较 见中国区域经济发展报告2003—2004 社会科学文献出版社 2005:第259—274页。
    16 王小鲁 樊纲 中国经济增长的可持续性 经济科学出版社 2000
    17.参见:马九杰 孟凡友 农民公迁移非持久型的影响因素分析 改革 2003年第4期71-75页.
    18 高路易 王涛 全国产品和要素市场的分割:经济成本和政策建议 世界银行中国研究论文之二,2005年10 世界银行的工作报告中利用了一个综合调查数据库和一个省级数据库,分析我国市场分割的程度和变化趋势,发现在三个主要的市场(产品市场,劳动力市场和资本市场)方面,市场分割的情况差别较大:从20世纪90年底初以来,产品市场越来越一体化,全国各地的价格在逐步趋同,区域经济的专业化程度提高。调查数据明显地显示出在过去10年里,地方保护主义显著减少。报告认为新形式的地方保护主义深藏在司法和地方政府采购方面的地方关联之中,继续对产品市场的一体化形成严重的挑战。
    1.参见:Warr,P. G, The potential for Free Zones : lessons from East Asia Pacific Economic Bulletin ,1993:8 ,1: 19-26.
    2.对双缺口模型的开创性研究是由钱纳里和他的合作者做的,在他所研究的国家经济起飞阶段,一般都有一个投资——储蓄缺口,然后再有一个进口——出口缺口,但是这两个缺口很难分清楚。这一理论也是暗含假定:国内资源和国外资源缺乏替代性,如果是外汇稀缺,在短时期内去换取外汇,减少进口来节约外汇都是相对困难的。如果缺少国内储蓄利用外汇来代替储蓄和提高国内储蓄率,资本生产率可能是比较容易的。因此基于我国的改革开放初期的现状,我们国家对于外汇的需求是很迫切的。
    3.2005年7月21起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,形成更富弹性的人民币汇率机制。由中国人民银行于每个工作日闭市后公布当日银行间外汇市场美元等交易货币对人民币汇率的收盘价,作为下一个工作日该货币对人民币交易的中间价格。外汇指定银行可自此时起调整对客户的挂牌汇价。每日银行间外汇市场美元对人民币的交易价仍在人民银行公布的美元交易中间价上下千分之三的幅度内浮动,非美元货币对人民币的交易价在人民银行公布的该货币交易中间价上下一定幅度内浮动。中国人民银行将根据市场发育状况和经济金融形势,适时调整汇率浮动区间。同时,中国人民银行负责根据国内外经济金融形势,以市场供求为基础,参考篮子货币汇率变动,对人民币汇率进行管理和调节,维护人民币汇率的正常浮动,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定,促进国际收支基本平衡,维护宏观经济和金融市场的稳定。这是我国外汇体制改革上的一次大事。在汇率体制改革后,在市场机制作用下,人民币对美元不断升值。
    4.见Hymer ,S,H, The international operations of national firms : a study of direct foreign investment [In] Phd dissertation published by MIT Press ,1976:vol2 pp23-4.
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    10.世界银行工作组在我国23个城市展开调查,根据非正式支付比例将城市分为A~+、A、B~+、B等四类,统计显示A~+级城市是杭州,该地区企业只向政府官员付出其销售额的0.007%作为非正式的支付。A级城市有南宁、上海、大连、郑州和江门,非正式支付占销售额的比例为0.01%—0.02%左右。B~+级城市有昆明、贵阳、广州、长春、北京和武汉,非正式支付比例为0.021%—0.043%。B级城市包括本溪、天津、成都、南昌和重庆。这些城市企业非正式支付比例达到0.07%—0.12%。B-级城市长沙、哈尔滨、深圳和兰州比例为0.32%—0.50%。抽样发现温州和西安,比例为0.32%—0.50%,比例最高。这是令人惊讶的,一般认为在经济发达地区,通常市场机制和法律制度更完善,规则被遵守的更好,改革的先行城市温州和深圳非正式支付也很高。其实这一点与在反思温州模式的有关讨论不谋而合(如史晋川认为温州因为基于地缘、血缘的社会网络所带来的所谓“人格化交易”使得进入新的行业更难,因此创新的动力减弱。地方政府的制度创新同时,也造成了“公共权力和私营经济两者不断相互渗透,形成了一张区域性的不可触摸的忘,阻碍了温州经济的对外开放。”).该报告建立了一个测度指标,即地方司法系统解决最近的商业纠纷所花的时间。A~+级城市包括大连和深圳(5.8个月)。A级城市包括江门(6.2)、南昌(6.6)、重庆(5.7)和本溪(6.9)。B~+类只有一个城市,长春(7.2)。B级城市有郑州(8.3)、长沙(8.4)、西安(8.4)、昆明(8.5)、温州(8.6)、南宁(8.7)、兰州(8.8)和杭州(9.4)。时间最长的C级城市有武汉(11)、贵阳(12)和哈尔滨(13.5)。
    11.参见:成思危 从保税区到自由贸易区 经济科学出版社 2003
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    2.参见:2006年9月30日 参考消息报 天津滨海新区改革将决定中国经济未来前景
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