居民家庭交通碳排放模型研究
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摘要
目前,世界各国正在为实现可持续发展不懈努力,我国也在大力倡导并积极推进资源节约、环境友好型社会的建设。家庭交通碳排放的研究有助于人们定性认识到家庭作为社会的基本组成单位,由交通出行给社会带来的环境负担。
本文以《空间规划与低碳西安》问卷调查为主要数据来源,在参考国内外关于家庭交通碳排放研究的基础上,分析出行方式、出行距离、文化程度、家庭收入等对家庭交通碳排放的影响,并建立影响模型。
本文主要做了以下工作：
(1)在检索国内外文献关于家庭交通碳排放理论的基础上,总结得到确定碳排放系数是计算家庭交通碳排放的一个重要环节,并且交通碳排放系数的确定有两种途径,一是根据交通方式确定,一是根据燃料类型确定。
(2)根据调查问卷中的数据,分析出行方式、出行距离、成员的文化程度与年龄、家庭收入、单位性质,是否使用小汽车等因素对家庭交通碳排放的影响。分析得到,出行方式、出行距离、文化程度、家庭收入等因素与家庭交通碳排放呈较强的线性相关性。
(3)以家庭交通碳排放量作为因变量,以上述影响因素作为自变量,分别采用含虚拟变量的多元回归模型、含定序变量的多元回归模型、基于主成分分析的多元回归模型建立家庭交通碳排放影响模型。采用上述三种模型,结果均表明,影响家庭交通碳排放的因素主要有：出行距离、出行方式、家庭收入,文化程度对家庭交通碳排放的影响不是特别显著。
This paper used the "Spatial Planning and low-carbon Xi'an" survey as the main data source. On the basis of referencing to domestic and international research on family transport carbon emissions, this paper analyzed the effect of trip purpose, trip distance, education, family income on the family transport carbon emissions, and establish models for it.
This article has done the following work: (i) On the basis of reviewing literatures, I found that defining the factor of carbon emissions is an important part of computing family transport carbon emissions. There are two ways of defining the factors, one is based on the travelling mode, the other is based on fuel type.
(ii) On the basis of the survey data, I analyzed the effect of travelling mode, distance, education, age, income, job, whether or not using the car to the family transport carbon emissions. I found that travelling mode, distance, education and income have linear correlation with family transport carbon emissions.
(iii) This paper established the regression model, taking family transport carbon emissions as dependant variable and the above-mentioned factors as independent variables. There are many fixed class variables, I used dummy variables and ordinal variables to quantify them. Principle Component Analysis(PCA) was used to establish the regression model. As a result of the model, travel distance, trip mode, household income are the main factors influencing the family traffic carbon emissions, while education has little impact on it.
本文以《空间规划与低碳西安》问卷调查为主要数据来源,在参考国内外关于家庭交通碳排放研究的基础上,分析出行方式、出行距离、文化程度、家庭收入等对家庭交通碳排放的影响,并建立影响模型。
本文主要做了以下工作：
(1)在检索国内外文献关于家庭交通碳排放理论的基础上,总结得到确定碳排放系数是计算家庭交通碳排放的一个重要环节,并且交通碳排放系数的确定有两种途径,一是根据交通方式确定,一是根据燃料类型确定。
(2)根据调查问卷中的数据,分析出行方式、出行距离、成员的文化程度与年龄、家庭收入、单位性质,是否使用小汽车等因素对家庭交通碳排放的影响。分析得到,出行方式、出行距离、文化程度、家庭收入等因素与家庭交通碳排放呈较强的线性相关性。
(3)以家庭交通碳排放量作为因变量,以上述影响因素作为自变量,分别采用含虚拟变量的多元回归模型、含定序变量的多元回归模型、基于主成分分析的多元回归模型建立家庭交通碳排放影响模型。采用上述三种模型,结果均表明,影响家庭交通碳排放的因素主要有：出行距离、出行方式、家庭收入,文化程度对家庭交通碳排放的影响不是特别显著。
This paper used the "Spatial Planning and low-carbon Xi'an" survey as the main data source. On the basis of referencing to domestic and international research on family transport carbon emissions, this paper analyzed the effect of trip purpose, trip distance, education, family income on the family transport carbon emissions, and establish models for it.
This article has done the following work: (i) On the basis of reviewing literatures, I found that defining the factor of carbon emissions is an important part of computing family transport carbon emissions. There are two ways of defining the factors, one is based on the travelling mode, the other is based on fuel type.
(ii) On the basis of the survey data, I analyzed the effect of travelling mode, distance, education, age, income, job, whether or not using the car to the family transport carbon emissions. I found that travelling mode, distance, education and income have linear correlation with family transport carbon emissions.
(iii) This paper established the regression model, taking family transport carbon emissions as dependant variable and the above-mentioned factors as independent variables. There are many fixed class variables, I used dummy variables and ordinal variables to quantify them. Principle Component Analysis(PCA) was used to establish the regression model. As a result of the model, travel distance, trip mode, household income are the main factors influencing the family traffic carbon emissions, while education has little impact on it.
引文
[1]David A. Poyer, Lenneal Henderson, Arvind P.S. Teotia, Residential energy consumption across different population groups:comparative analysis for Latino and non-Latino households in USA[J]. Energy Economics.1997:449-450.
[2]Yutaka Tonooka, Jiaping Liu, Yasuhiko Kondou, Yadong Ning, Oki Fukasawa, A survey on energy consumption in rural households in the fringes of Xian city[J]. Energy and Buildings.2006:1336-1341.
[3]Reid Ewing, Fang Rong, The Impact of Urban Form on U.S. Residential Energy Use[J]. Housing and Debate.2008:19(1):9-19.
[4]A. Druckman, T. Jackson, Household energy consumption in the UK:A highly geographically and socio-economically disaggregated model[J]. Energy Policy.2008: 3180-3183.
[5]Tricia Kenny, N.F. Gray, A preliminary survey of household and personal carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland[J]. Environment International.2009:262-263.
[6]Phu Nguyen-Van, Energy consumption and income:A semiparametric panel data analysis[J]. Energy Economics.2010:557.
[7]Kobe Boussauw, Frank Witlox, Introducing a commute-energy performance index for Flanders[J]. Transportation Research Part A.2009:581-588.
[8]I. Meyer, M. Leimbach, C.C. Jaeger, International passenger transport and climate change:A sector analysis in car demand and associated CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2050[J]. Energy Policy 35 (2007):6341-6342.
[9]Chun-Hsiung Liao, Chin-Shan Lu, Po-Hsing Tseng, Carbon dioxide emissions and inland container transport in Taiwan[J]. Transport Geography. (2010), doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2010.08.013:3-4.
[10]Conor Walsh, Phil Jakeman, Richard Moles, Bernadette O'Regan, A comparison of carbon dioxide emissions associated with motorized transport modes and cycling in Ireland[J]. Transportation Research Part D 13 (2008):394-396.
[11]Annemarie C. Kerkhof, Rene M.J. Benders, Henri C. Moll, Determinants of variation in household CO2 emissions between and within countries[J]. Energy Policy 37 (2009): 1511-1512.
[12]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析：1995-2004[J].中 国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6)：159.
[13]赵敏,张卫国,俞立中.上海市居民出行方式与城市交通C02排放及减排对策[J].环境科学研究,2009.6：748-749.
[14]杜婷婷,毛峰,罗锐.中国经济增长与C02排放演化探析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,17(2)：94-97.
[15]叶祖达,碳排放量评估方法在低碳城市规划之应用[J].现代城市研究,2009(11)：21.
[16]David Banister, Chris Banister, Energy consumption in transport in Great Britain: Macro level estimates [J]. Transportation Research Part A.1995,29(1).
[17]D.Stead, Relationships between transport emissions and travel patterns in Britain[J]. Transport Policy.6(4).
[18]Anil Singh, S. Gangopadhyay, P.K. Nanda, S. Bhattacharya, C. Sharma, C. Bhan, Trends of greenhouse gas emissions from the road transport sector in India[J]. Science of the Total Environment 390 (2008):126.
[19]陈立泰,张军委,万丽娟,重庆市碳排放量测度及影响因素分析：1998～2008[J].探索,2010,3：106：107.
[20]陈彦玲,王琛,影响中国人均碳排放的因素分析[J].北京石油化工学院学报,2009.17(2)：55.
[21]杨选梅,葛幼松,曾红鹰,基于个体消费行为的家庭碳排放研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20,(5)：35-39.
[22]黄成,陈长虹,王冰妍,戴懿,赵静,王海鲲,城市交通出行方式对能源与环境的影响[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(11)：164.
[23]姚胜永,潘海啸,基于交通能耗的城市空间和交通模式宏观分析及对我国城市发展的启示[J].城市规划学刊,2009,3：47-49.
[24]王琴,曲建升,曾静静,生存碳排放评估方法与指标体系研究[J].开发研究,2010,1：18-20.
[25]丁哲.交通方式对城市可持续发展的影响分析[D].南京林业大学,2008.
[26]岑乐陶主编.城市道路交通规划设计[M].机械工业出版社,2006.8.
[27]陈飞,诸大建,许琨.城市低碳发展模型、现状问题及目标策略[J].城市规划学刊,2009.6：40-41.
[28]冯蕊,朱坦,陈胜男,张墨.天津市居民生活消费C02排放估算分析[J].中国环境 科学,2011,31(1)：163-164.
[29]科学技术部社会发展科技司,中国21世纪议程管理中心.全民节能减排实用手册[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007.
[30]齐宝平.中国节能影响因素分析研究[D].大连理工大学,2010.
[31]黄树森,宋瑞,陶媛.大城市居民出行方式选择行为及影响因素研究[J].交通与安全,2008,9.
[32]胡予红,煤炭消费预测与温室气体减排途径和对策研究[D].中国矿业大学(北京),2009：37-40.
[33]董西明,对两个定类变量间相关系数计算方法之分析[J].江苏统计,1997.5.
[34]姜扬.聚类和主成分回归在经济指标数据中的应用研究[D].吉林大学,2010.
[35]李小胜,陈珍珍.如何正确应用SPSS软件做主成分分析[J].统计研究,2010.8.
[36]石京.低碳交通是一种效用选择[J].绿叶,2010.8.
[37]李怀组.管理研究方法论[M].西安：西安交通大学出版社,2004.
[38]赖国毅,陈超.SPSS17中文版统计分析典型实例精粹[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2010.
[39]胡昌铸.应用计量经济学[M].西安：陕西人民出版社,1991.
[40]米红,张文璋.实用统计分析与SPSS应用[M].当代中国出版社,2004.
[41]Shui Bin, Hadi Dowlatabadi. Consumer Lifestyle to US energy use and the related CO2 emissions. [J]. Energy Policy.2005.
[42]Yi-Ming Wei, Lan-Cui Liu, Ying Fan, Gang Wu. The impact of lifestyle on energy use and CO2 emission:An empirical analysis of China's residents. [J]. Energy Policy.2007.
[43]刘文宇.北京市发展低碳交通的前景分析[J].综合运输,2010.9.
[44]Christian Brand, Brenda Boardman. Taming of the few—The unequal distribution of greenhouse gas emissions from personal travel in the UK[J]. Energy Policy.2008(36): 225-230.
[45]富振英,logistic回归模型数据的预处理(二)——离散变量数量化方法[J].中国卫生统计,1999.
[46]于宏义等,定性排序与定量转换研究[J].模糊数学,1987(3)
[2]Yutaka Tonooka, Jiaping Liu, Yasuhiko Kondou, Yadong Ning, Oki Fukasawa, A survey on energy consumption in rural households in the fringes of Xian city[J]. Energy and Buildings.2006:1336-1341.
[3]Reid Ewing, Fang Rong, The Impact of Urban Form on U.S. Residential Energy Use[J]. Housing and Debate.2008:19(1):9-19.
[4]A. Druckman, T. Jackson, Household energy consumption in the UK:A highly geographically and socio-economically disaggregated model[J]. Energy Policy.2008: 3180-3183.
[5]Tricia Kenny, N.F. Gray, A preliminary survey of household and personal carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland[J]. Environment International.2009:262-263.
[6]Phu Nguyen-Van, Energy consumption and income:A semiparametric panel data analysis[J]. Energy Economics.2010:557.
[7]Kobe Boussauw, Frank Witlox, Introducing a commute-energy performance index for Flanders[J]. Transportation Research Part A.2009:581-588.
[8]I. Meyer, M. Leimbach, C.C. Jaeger, International passenger transport and climate change:A sector analysis in car demand and associated CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2050[J]. Energy Policy 35 (2007):6341-6342.
[9]Chun-Hsiung Liao, Chin-Shan Lu, Po-Hsing Tseng, Carbon dioxide emissions and inland container transport in Taiwan[J]. Transport Geography. (2010), doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2010.08.013:3-4.
[10]Conor Walsh, Phil Jakeman, Richard Moles, Bernadette O'Regan, A comparison of carbon dioxide emissions associated with motorized transport modes and cycling in Ireland[J]. Transportation Research Part D 13 (2008):394-396.
[11]Annemarie C. Kerkhof, Rene M.J. Benders, Henri C. Moll, Determinants of variation in household CO2 emissions between and within countries[J]. Energy Policy 37 (2009): 1511-1512.
[12]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析：1995-2004[J].中 国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6)：159.
[13]赵敏,张卫国,俞立中.上海市居民出行方式与城市交通C02排放及减排对策[J].环境科学研究,2009.6：748-749.
[14]杜婷婷,毛峰,罗锐.中国经济增长与C02排放演化探析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,17(2)：94-97.
[15]叶祖达,碳排放量评估方法在低碳城市规划之应用[J].现代城市研究,2009(11)：21.
[16]David Banister, Chris Banister, Energy consumption in transport in Great Britain: Macro level estimates [J]. Transportation Research Part A.1995,29(1).
[17]D.Stead, Relationships between transport emissions and travel patterns in Britain[J]. Transport Policy.6(4).
[18]Anil Singh, S. Gangopadhyay, P.K. Nanda, S. Bhattacharya, C. Sharma, C. Bhan, Trends of greenhouse gas emissions from the road transport sector in India[J]. Science of the Total Environment 390 (2008):126.
[19]陈立泰,张军委,万丽娟,重庆市碳排放量测度及影响因素分析：1998～2008[J].探索,2010,3：106：107.
[20]陈彦玲,王琛,影响中国人均碳排放的因素分析[J].北京石油化工学院学报,2009.17(2)：55.
[21]杨选梅,葛幼松,曾红鹰,基于个体消费行为的家庭碳排放研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20,(5)：35-39.
[22]黄成,陈长虹,王冰妍,戴懿,赵静,王海鲲,城市交通出行方式对能源与环境的影响[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(11)：164.
[23]姚胜永,潘海啸,基于交通能耗的城市空间和交通模式宏观分析及对我国城市发展的启示[J].城市规划学刊,2009,3：47-49.
[24]王琴,曲建升,曾静静,生存碳排放评估方法与指标体系研究[J].开发研究,2010,1：18-20.
[25]丁哲.交通方式对城市可持续发展的影响分析[D].南京林业大学,2008.
[26]岑乐陶主编.城市道路交通规划设计[M].机械工业出版社,2006.8.
[27]陈飞,诸大建,许琨.城市低碳发展模型、现状问题及目标策略[J].城市规划学刊,2009.6：40-41.
[28]冯蕊,朱坦,陈胜男,张墨.天津市居民生活消费C02排放估算分析[J].中国环境 科学,2011,31(1)：163-164.
[29]科学技术部社会发展科技司,中国21世纪议程管理中心.全民节能减排实用手册[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007.
[30]齐宝平.中国节能影响因素分析研究[D].大连理工大学,2010.
[31]黄树森,宋瑞,陶媛.大城市居民出行方式选择行为及影响因素研究[J].交通与安全,2008,9.
[32]胡予红,煤炭消费预测与温室气体减排途径和对策研究[D].中国矿业大学(北京),2009：37-40.
[33]董西明,对两个定类变量间相关系数计算方法之分析[J].江苏统计,1997.5.
[34]姜扬.聚类和主成分回归在经济指标数据中的应用研究[D].吉林大学,2010.
[35]李小胜,陈珍珍.如何正确应用SPSS软件做主成分分析[J].统计研究,2010.8.
[36]石京.低碳交通是一种效用选择[J].绿叶,2010.8.
[37]李怀组.管理研究方法论[M].西安：西安交通大学出版社,2004.
[38]赖国毅,陈超.SPSS17中文版统计分析典型实例精粹[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2010.
[39]胡昌铸.应用计量经济学[M].西安：陕西人民出版社,1991.
[40]米红,张文璋.实用统计分析与SPSS应用[M].当代中国出版社,2004.
[41]Shui Bin, Hadi Dowlatabadi. Consumer Lifestyle to US energy use and the related CO2 emissions. [J]. Energy Policy.2005.
[42]Yi-Ming Wei, Lan-Cui Liu, Ying Fan, Gang Wu. The impact of lifestyle on energy use and CO2 emission:An empirical analysis of China's residents. [J]. Energy Policy.2007.
[43]刘文宇.北京市发展低碳交通的前景分析[J].综合运输,2010.9.
[44]Christian Brand, Brenda Boardman. Taming of the few—The unequal distribution of greenhouse gas emissions from personal travel in the UK[J]. Energy Policy.2008(36): 225-230.
[45]富振英,logistic回归模型数据的预处理(二)——离散变量数量化方法[J].中国卫生统计,1999.
[46]于宏义等,定性排序与定量转换研究[J].模糊数学,1987(3)