基于小额保险的小额信贷风险防控研究
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摘要
小额信贷是我国金融业中不断成长壮大起来的一种新型金融模式,因其数额较小、期限较短、利率较高、分期偿还等特点,被国际社会视为一种减贫救助的有效手段,广泛应用在许多发展中国家。
我国自90年代初期引进小额信贷模式以来,在解决农村金融资金短缺、贫困农户融资难问题上发挥了重要作用。但随着小额信贷业务不断拓展,信贷资金逐渐增多,规模逐步扩大,民间团体和国际非政府组织多形式渗入,小额信贷出现了业务管理混乱,信贷监管不利,信贷程序不规范,风险防控手段落后等现象,进而导致小额信贷风险随之加大。为防范和分散信贷风险,确保小额信贷能够可持续发展,本文在借鉴和总结国内外小额信贷发展的成功经验上,结合宁夏实地调研,以经济学、风险管理学为理论依据,以计量经济学为分析手段,以理论推演和实证分析为研究方法,针对小额信贷风险防控中存在的问题,深入分析了小额信贷风险产生的原因,提出了在完善现有信贷风险管理体制基础上,将小额保险纳入信贷风险防控中的思路,希望能对我国小额信贷风险防控体系有所启发,对农村金融改革有所帮助。
本文从金融风险理论回顾、信贷风险生成机理、评价模型建立和实证分析四个层面上对小额信贷风险防控机制进行了研究,其主要观点和结论概况如下：
首先,信贷风险是伴随着小额信贷发展共生的。经济学理论观点清楚的阐明,金融主体的有限理性和市场经济下人的私立性决定了信贷风险是不可避免的。正因如此,迄今为止人们还没有找到一个十分有效的能够降低信贷风险发生频率,减少其损失程度的防控措施。所以,认识风险、研究风险和控制风险一直是国内外专家、学者们关注和研究的热点。
其次,小额信贷风险成因具有特殊性。小额信贷内部治理的缺失和外部监管的失控是造成信贷风险的两大因素。从内部管理来看,产权主体缺位、内部治理机制、激励机制、约束机制不健全构成了小额信贷风险的特殊性。从外部管理看,宏观经济调控不当、借款人风险认知度低、行政干预过多等增加了信贷风险程度。
再次,运用计量经济学方法能够准确评估小额信贷风险防控效果。本文采用多层次模糊综合判别模型和数据包络模型,从贷款农户和小额信贷机构不同角度,分别对小额信贷风险防控效果进行了评价。实证分析结果,将小额保险引入小额信贷无疑是防范和分散信贷风险最为有效的一项措施。
最后,基于小额信贷风险成因,从政策、技术和管理二个方面提出了小额信贷风险管理策略和建议,通过完善法律法规、扩大搞活融资渠道、健全监管机制、引入保险机制等手段达到分散、转移信贷风险的目的。
Micro-credit, as a new financial model, is developing and growing up in China's financial system. Because of its small account, short duration, higher interest rates, amortization and other characteristics, it has been widely recognized and followed by developing counties as an effective poverty relief method in the international community. Since the micro-credit model was introduced in China in the early 90's, it has played an important role in solving the problem of the shortage of rural financial resources and the loan for poor farmers.
However, with the development of the micro-credit in China, the credit funds and the scale are increasing gradually, many civil societies and international non-governmental organizations join in the market and make it becomes poor in management. Many problems, such as the weak management of credit monitoring, non-standard credit procedures and the backward of avoiding risk method, leading to the risk of micro-credit was increasing.
In order to prevent and reduce the risk of credit, ensure the sustainable development of micro-credit, the article summarized the successful experience in the world and combined with the surveys in Ningxia on the theory basis of economics and risk management, econometric analysis, use the research method of theory and empirical analysis to classify and evaluate risk factor faced in micro-credit While improving the existing credit risk management system based on the proposed micro-insurance into the credit risk. I expect the paper could give some advises or guidance for micro-credit agencies in risk prevention and help to the rural financial reform.
This thesis presented an analysis on micro-credit risk control and risk precaution in the four aspects: review of financial risk theory, causes of credit risk, establishment of assessment and evaluation model as well as sample analysis in Ningxia, the main points and conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, the micro-credit risk is the inevitable outcome of development of micro-credit. From the viewpoint of economic theory, it can be seen that the credit risk is inevitable because of the limited rationality of financial main body's and personal selfish in the market economy system. This is the reason why people had not been found out a very effectively methods of micro-credit risk management to reduce the frequency of credit risk and the capital loss until now, therefore, the cognition risk, research risk and control risk have long been a focus for the domestic and foreign experts to study.
Secondly, the faultiness of internal administrative system and legal system and the out-of-control in external supervision are two factors that created the credit risk. Judging from the internal management, by reason of the property right vacancy, the internal management mechanism, the promoting system and the restraint mechanism in practice were not perfect that caused the micro-credit risk particularity. In the eyes of external management, the inappropriate macroeconomic regulation and control, the lower cognition identity risk of borrower, the government administrative intervention excessively and so on, which increased the credit risk.
Third, on the basis of the micro-credit risk factors, a model of evaluation of micro-credit risk was established with multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method and Data Envelopment Analysis Method, which evaluate the effect of micro-credit risk management from the different point in farmers and micro-credit agencies. As the result, it is the most useful method to control and reduce the risk of credit.
Finally, to solve the problem and issues in micro-credit risk, the paper provided the strategy and suggestion of micro-credit risk precaution in terms of the policy, technique and management in the point of risk factor. Through improving the laws and regulations of micro-credit operation, developing financing channel and improving the supervision system, introducing micro-insurance mechanisms, etc. to achieve the purposes of dispersion of credit risk transfer.
我国自90年代初期引进小额信贷模式以来,在解决农村金融资金短缺、贫困农户融资难问题上发挥了重要作用。但随着小额信贷业务不断拓展,信贷资金逐渐增多,规模逐步扩大,民间团体和国际非政府组织多形式渗入,小额信贷出现了业务管理混乱,信贷监管不利,信贷程序不规范,风险防控手段落后等现象,进而导致小额信贷风险随之加大。为防范和分散信贷风险,确保小额信贷能够可持续发展,本文在借鉴和总结国内外小额信贷发展的成功经验上,结合宁夏实地调研,以经济学、风险管理学为理论依据,以计量经济学为分析手段,以理论推演和实证分析为研究方法,针对小额信贷风险防控中存在的问题,深入分析了小额信贷风险产生的原因,提出了在完善现有信贷风险管理体制基础上,将小额保险纳入信贷风险防控中的思路,希望能对我国小额信贷风险防控体系有所启发,对农村金融改革有所帮助。
本文从金融风险理论回顾、信贷风险生成机理、评价模型建立和实证分析四个层面上对小额信贷风险防控机制进行了研究,其主要观点和结论概况如下：
首先,信贷风险是伴随着小额信贷发展共生的。经济学理论观点清楚的阐明,金融主体的有限理性和市场经济下人的私立性决定了信贷风险是不可避免的。正因如此,迄今为止人们还没有找到一个十分有效的能够降低信贷风险发生频率,减少其损失程度的防控措施。所以,认识风险、研究风险和控制风险一直是国内外专家、学者们关注和研究的热点。
其次,小额信贷风险成因具有特殊性。小额信贷内部治理的缺失和外部监管的失控是造成信贷风险的两大因素。从内部管理来看,产权主体缺位、内部治理机制、激励机制、约束机制不健全构成了小额信贷风险的特殊性。从外部管理看,宏观经济调控不当、借款人风险认知度低、行政干预过多等增加了信贷风险程度。
再次,运用计量经济学方法能够准确评估小额信贷风险防控效果。本文采用多层次模糊综合判别模型和数据包络模型,从贷款农户和小额信贷机构不同角度,分别对小额信贷风险防控效果进行了评价。实证分析结果,将小额保险引入小额信贷无疑是防范和分散信贷风险最为有效的一项措施。
最后,基于小额信贷风险成因,从政策、技术和管理二个方面提出了小额信贷风险管理策略和建议,通过完善法律法规、扩大搞活融资渠道、健全监管机制、引入保险机制等手段达到分散、转移信贷风险的目的。
Micro-credit, as a new financial model, is developing and growing up in China's financial system. Because of its small account, short duration, higher interest rates, amortization and other characteristics, it has been widely recognized and followed by developing counties as an effective poverty relief method in the international community. Since the micro-credit model was introduced in China in the early 90's, it has played an important role in solving the problem of the shortage of rural financial resources and the loan for poor farmers.
However, with the development of the micro-credit in China, the credit funds and the scale are increasing gradually, many civil societies and international non-governmental organizations join in the market and make it becomes poor in management. Many problems, such as the weak management of credit monitoring, non-standard credit procedures and the backward of avoiding risk method, leading to the risk of micro-credit was increasing.
In order to prevent and reduce the risk of credit, ensure the sustainable development of micro-credit, the article summarized the successful experience in the world and combined with the surveys in Ningxia on the theory basis of economics and risk management, econometric analysis, use the research method of theory and empirical analysis to classify and evaluate risk factor faced in micro-credit While improving the existing credit risk management system based on the proposed micro-insurance into the credit risk. I expect the paper could give some advises or guidance for micro-credit agencies in risk prevention and help to the rural financial reform.
This thesis presented an analysis on micro-credit risk control and risk precaution in the four aspects: review of financial risk theory, causes of credit risk, establishment of assessment and evaluation model as well as sample analysis in Ningxia, the main points and conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, the micro-credit risk is the inevitable outcome of development of micro-credit. From the viewpoint of economic theory, it can be seen that the credit risk is inevitable because of the limited rationality of financial main body's and personal selfish in the market economy system. This is the reason why people had not been found out a very effectively methods of micro-credit risk management to reduce the frequency of credit risk and the capital loss until now, therefore, the cognition risk, research risk and control risk have long been a focus for the domestic and foreign experts to study.
Secondly, the faultiness of internal administrative system and legal system and the out-of-control in external supervision are two factors that created the credit risk. Judging from the internal management, by reason of the property right vacancy, the internal management mechanism, the promoting system and the restraint mechanism in practice were not perfect that caused the micro-credit risk particularity. In the eyes of external management, the inappropriate macroeconomic regulation and control, the lower cognition identity risk of borrower, the government administrative intervention excessively and so on, which increased the credit risk.
Third, on the basis of the micro-credit risk factors, a model of evaluation of micro-credit risk was established with multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method and Data Envelopment Analysis Method, which evaluate the effect of micro-credit risk management from the different point in farmers and micro-credit agencies. As the result, it is the most useful method to control and reduce the risk of credit.
Finally, to solve the problem and issues in micro-credit risk, the paper provided the strategy and suggestion of micro-credit risk precaution in terms of the policy, technique and management in the point of risk factor. Through improving the laws and regulations of micro-credit operation, developing financing channel and improving the supervision system, introducing micro-insurance mechanisms, etc. to achieve the purposes of dispersion of credit risk transfer.
引文
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