退出成本、经济相互依赖与双边军事冲突
摘要
近几十年的国际关系形势有两大特征:经贸合作关系的深化及发展与军事冲突的减少。那么,经贸合作的深化是否能带来军事冲突的减少呢?国际关系理论界对此问题一直争论不休。本文认为克里森兹的以门槛成本为核心概念的退出理论对该问题做了很好的回答。退出成本即退出国家间经济联系的机会成本,而门槛成本则为冲突双方所能承担经济损失的上限。克里森兹认为,当两国之间的退出成本小于门槛成本时,爆发军事战争的可能性较大;而当两国之间的退出成本大于门槛成本时,爆发军事战争的可能性较小。那么是否存在门槛成本这种经贸关系的极值呢?如果存在又是多少呢?本文以美国为考察对象,将美国历次战争前对目标国的退出成本进行计算、总结与整理,认为门槛成本确实存在,体现为太平洋战争爆发之前美国对日本经济的退出成本。本文通过分析太平洋战争前美日两国的经济相互依赖情况和走向战争的历史情况,验证了退出成本理论,并得出美国门槛成本的具体数值。本文不仅完善了退出理论,从而使之能更好地弥合“贸易和平论”的争议;而且本文提出的美国的门槛成本也对外交决策有较大的参考意义。
There are mainly two features of international relations in recent decades: the reinforcement of economic cooperation and the decrease of military conflict. So, are there any correlations between these two features? The debate on this issue has last for hundreds of years and never come to a conclusion. This paper argues that the exit theory whose core concept is the threshold and exit cost given by Crescenzi can answer this question properly. The exit cost is the opportunity cost a country has to pay when it cut its economic relationship off with another country; while the threshold is the upper limit of economic loss born by a country in a bilateral conflict. Crescenzi assumes that a military war would be more likely to happen if the challenging country’s exit cost is lower than its threshold, and vice versa. Thus does there exist such a threshold? What on earth is this threshold if it practically exists? This paper holds the idea that the threshold practically exist, take the USA as an example, its threshold is the exit cost when America cut off its economic relationship with Japan before the Pacific War. This conclusion is drew by calculating, rearranging and summarizing America’s exit costs before every wars it undertook as a challenging country, and by analysis the case before the Pacific War that the USA and Japan were economically interdependent but ended with war. This paper has testified the exit theory and come up with an approximation of America’s threshold. Thus in this paper, exit theory will be improved, the debate on whether economic interdependence can promote peace will be better answered. Moreover, the approximation of America’s threshold derived by this paper has a significant meaning to our country’s diplomatic policies.
There are mainly two features of international relations in recent decades: the reinforcement of economic cooperation and the decrease of military conflict. So, are there any correlations between these two features? The debate on this issue has last for hundreds of years and never come to a conclusion. This paper argues that the exit theory whose core concept is the threshold and exit cost given by Crescenzi can answer this question properly. The exit cost is the opportunity cost a country has to pay when it cut its economic relationship off with another country; while the threshold is the upper limit of economic loss born by a country in a bilateral conflict. Crescenzi assumes that a military war would be more likely to happen if the challenging country’s exit cost is lower than its threshold, and vice versa. Thus does there exist such a threshold? What on earth is this threshold if it practically exists? This paper holds the idea that the threshold practically exist, take the USA as an example, its threshold is the exit cost when America cut off its economic relationship with Japan before the Pacific War. This conclusion is drew by calculating, rearranging and summarizing America’s exit costs before every wars it undertook as a challenging country, and by analysis the case before the Pacific War that the USA and Japan were economically interdependent but ended with war. This paper has testified the exit theory and come up with an approximation of America’s threshold. Thus in this paper, exit theory will be improved, the debate on whether economic interdependence can promote peace will be better answered. Moreover, the approximation of America’s threshold derived by this paper has a significant meaning to our country’s diplomatic policies.
引文
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②颜剑英,罗锦秀:《冷战结束后美国对外经济制裁的新发展》,《世界经济与政治》,2005年第2期,第81页。
①邵亚楼:《国际经济制裁:历史演进与理论探析》,2008年上海社会科学院博士论文,第128页。
②同上,第11页。
③Joseph M. Grieco & G. John Ikenberry, State Power and World Market: the International Political Economic, (New York and London: W. Wonton & Company, 2003), p. 164.
①贺文萍:《中国对非援助:发展特点、作用及面临的挑战》,《改革开放论坛》,2010年第5期,第10页。
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Barbieri, Katherine & Keshk, Oman & Pollins, Brian,“Trading Data: Evaluating our Assumptions and Coding Rules.”Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2009, http://correlatesofwar.org.
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Gasiorowski, Mark J.,“Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: Some Cross-National Evidence,”International Studies Quarterly, (March 1, 1986)
Gowa, Joanne, Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade, (Princeton & NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994)
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②Torbjorn L. Knutsen, A History of International Relations Theory , (Manchester and New York: Manchester University Press, 1997), p. 5.
①参见樊勇明:《西方国际政治经济学》,上海人民出版社,2000年版,第58页。
②参见Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World, (New York: Basics books, 1987).
③参见Solomon Polachek,“Why Democracies Cooperate More and Fight Less: The Relationship Between International Trade and Cooperation”, Review of International Economics, (March 5, 1997), pp. 295-309
④余万里:《相互依赖研究评述》,《欧洲研究》,2003年第4期,第52页
⑤王帆:《美日经贸关系与美日同盟》,《国际关系学院院报》,2001年第2期,第33页。
①肯尼思·沃尔兹:《国际政治理论》(胡少华等译),北京:中国公安大学出版社,1992年版,第167页。
②参见Katherine Barbieri,“Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict,”Journal of Peace Research, (Feb. 1, 1996), pp.29-49.
③Katherine Barbieri, The liberal illusion: does trade promote peace? (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002), p. 122
④Katherine Barbieri & Jack S. Levy,“Sleeping with the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade,”Journal of Peace Research, (July. 4, 1999), pp.463-479.
⑤参见Katherine Barbieri & Rafael Reuveny,“Economic Globalization and Civil War,”The Journal of Politics, (Nov. 4, 2005), pp.1228–1247.
⑥Solomon Polachek,“Multilateral Interactions in the Trade-Conflict Model”, in Gerald Schneider, Katherine Barbieri & Nils Petter Gleditsch ed., Globalization and Armed Conflict, (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2003), p. 33
⑦Joanne Gowa, Allies, adversaries, and international trade, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), p. 6.
⑧Theotonio dos Santos,“The Structure of Dependence”, American Economic Review, (May 2, 1970), p. 235
①参见Albert O. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1980), pp. 76-78.
②参见Barry Buzan,“Economic Structure and International Security: The Limits of the Liberal Case,”International Organization, (Autumn 1984), pp.597-624.
③参见约翰·米尔斯海默:《大国政治的悲剧》(王义桅,唐小松译),上海人民出版社,2008年,第398页。
①邝艳湘,向洪金:《贸易与国际冲突的因果检验》,《国际政治科学》,2009年第2期,第2页
②参见Mark J. Gasiorowski,“Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: Some Cross-National Evidence,”International Studies Quarterly, (Mar. 1, 1986), pp.23-38.
③参见Edward D. Mansfield & Brian M. Pollins, Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate, (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003), p.3
①参见Erik Gartzke & Quan Li,“Measure for Measure: Concept Operationalization and the Trade Interdependence-Conflict Debate,”Journal of Peace Research, (Sep. 5, 2003), pp.553-571.
②参见Jon C. Pevehouse,“Interdependence Theory and the Measurement of International Conflict,”The Journal of Politics, (Feb. 1, 2004), p.250.
③余万里:《相互依赖研究评述》,《欧洲研究》,2003年第4期,第54页。
④参见Katherine Barbieri,“Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?”Journal of Peace Research, (Feb. 1, 1996). pp. 29-49.
⑤参见常欣欣:《试论不对称的经济相互依赖与和平的关系》,《中共中央党校学报》,2001年第2期,第65-69页。
⑥Edward D. Mansfield & Jon C. Pevehouse,“Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict,”International Organization, (Autumn, 2000), pp.775-808.
①参见Havard Hegre,“Development and the Liberal Peace: What Does It Take to Be a Trading State?”Journal of Peace Research, (Jan. 1, 2000), pp.5-30.
②参见Christopher Gelpi & Joseph M. Grieco,“Economic Interdependence, the Democratic State, and the Liberal Peace”. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict, eds. Edward D.Mansfield & Brian M. Pollins, (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003) pp.44-59.
③参见John R. Oneal & Bruce M. Russett,“The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985,”International Studies Quarterly, (June 2, 1997), pp.267-293.
④John R. Oneal & Bruce M. Russett,“The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict,1950-1985,”International Studies Quarterly, (June 2, 1997), pp.267-293.
⑤Jaap de Wilde, Saved from Oblivion: Interdependence Theory in the First Half of the 20th Century: A Study on the Causality Between War and Complex Interdependence, (Dartmouth: Aldershot, 1991), chapter 1.转引自:邝艳湘:《全球化条件下的经济相互依赖和世界和平》,外交学院2008年4月博士论文,第11页
⑥Charles H. Anderton & John R. Carter,“The Impact of War on Trade: An Interrupted Times-Series Study”, Journal of Peace Research, (July 4, 2001), p. 445.
⑦参见Dale C. Copeland,“Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations,”International Security, (Spring, 1996), pp.5-41.
①郎平:《贸易何以促成和平——以中美关系为例》,《世界经济与政治》,2006年第11期,第26页
②邝艳湘:《全球化条件下的经济相互依赖和世界和平》,外交学院2008年4月博士论文,第30页
③Zeev Maoz,“The Effects of Strategic and Economic Interdependence on International Conflict”, American Journal of Political Science, (Jan. 1, 2009), p. 233.
①罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈:《权力与相互依赖》(林茂辉等译),北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,1992年3月版,第8页。
②同上,第8-9页。
③同上,第10页。
④吴伟平:《相互依赖关系中的敏感性与脆弱性辨析》,《社会科学》,2010年第4期,第22页。
⑤王毛平:《中日经济“非对称性”相互依赖与权力分析》,《国际论坛》,2010年第1期,第40页。
①罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈:《权力与相互依赖》(林茂辉等译),北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,1992年3月版,第20页。
②同上,第11页。
③小约瑟夫·奈:《理解国际冲突:理论与历史》(张晓明译),上海世纪出版集团,2002年版,第283页。
④Zeev Maoz,“The Effects of Strategic and Economic Interdependence on International Conflict across Levels of Analysis”, American Journal of Political Science, (Jan. 1, 2009), p.224
⑤Solomon W. Polachek,“Conflict and Trade: An Economics Approach to Political International Interactions”, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, (Summer. 2, 1999), pp. 57-78.
⑥John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett,“Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict”, Journal of Peace Research, (July. 4, 1999), pp. 423-442.
⑦Katherine Barbieri,“Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?”, Journal of Peace Research, (Feb. 1, 1996), pp.29-49.
⑧罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈:《权力与相互依赖》(林茂辉等译),北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,1992年3月版,第9页。
①Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 812
②Gowa Joanne, Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade, (Princeton& NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994), p.118
③Williamson Oliver, The Mechanisms of Governance, (New York & Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996), p.59
①Hirschman Albert, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, (Berkeley& Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1945), p.28
②Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 814
③James D. Morrow,“How Could Trade Affect Conflict”, Journal of Peace Research, (July. 4, 1999), p. 481.
④William Reed,“A Unified Statistical Model of Conflict Onset and Escalation,”American Journal of Political Science, (Jan. 1, 2000), p. 85.
⑤Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 818.
①Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 816
②邝艳湘:《经济相互依赖、退出成本与国家间冲突升级——基于动态博弈模型的理论分析》,《世界经济政治》,2010年第4期,第131页。
③Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 816.
①Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 812.
①由Mark J. C. Crescenzi, Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics,(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2005), p.130整理而得
①Rafael Reuveny & Heejoon Kang,“International Trade, Political Conflict/Cooperation, and Granger Causality,”American Journal of Political Science, (Aug. 3, 1999), pp. 943-970
②Meredith Reid Sarkees & Frank Wayman, Resort to War: 1816– 2007,.( Washington: CQ Press, 2010).
③Singer. J. David, & Melvin Small, COW Wars v. 4.0, 1816-2007.
④Singer. J. David, & Melvin Small, COW Wars v. 4.0, 1816-2007.
⑤Meredith Reid Sarkees & Frank Wayman, Resort to War: 1816– 2007,.( Washington: CQ Press, 2010).
①Barbieri Katherine, Oman M. G. Keshk, & Brian Pollins,“Trading Data: Evaluating our Assumptions and Coding Rules.”Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2009, http://correlatesofwar.org.
②Zeev Maoz,“The Effects of Strategic and Economic Interdependence on International Conflict”, American Journal of Political Science, (Jan. 1, 2009), p. 233.
③Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 823.
④Marquez Jaime,“Bilateral Trade Elasticities”, Review of Economics and Statistics, (Feb.1, 1990), pp. 70-77.
⑤Landsburg Steven, Price Theory and Applications, (Minneapolis& St.Paul: West Publishing Co. 1995).
⑥Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 822.
①Mark J. C. Crescenzi,“Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, (Aug. 3, 2003), p. 822.
②Zeev Maoz,“The Effects of Strategic and Economic Interdependence on International Conflict”, American Journal of Political Science, (Jan. 1, 2009), p. 233.
③Chang, Tse Chun,“International Comparison of Demand for Imports,”Review of Economic Studies, ( Apr. 2, 1946), pp. 53-67.
④Hiau Looi Kee, Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga,“Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions”, Review of Economics and Statistics, (Nov. 4, 2008), pp. 666-682
①Edward D. Mansfield & Brian M. Pollins, ed. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate, (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003), p.7.
②中国社会科学院近代史研究所:《顾维钧回忆录第二分册》,北京:中华书局,1983年,第658页
③科德尔·赫尔:《赫尔回忆录》(申报编译室译),南京中央日报社,1948年,第551页,转引自李京原:《从美国对日本的经济制裁看太平洋战争爆发前美国的对日政策(1937-1941)》2003年首都师范大学硕士论文,第6页。
①弗雷德里克·W·马克斯:《风掠过沙:罗斯福外交政策》,雅典城:美国乔治亚大学出版社,1988年,第78页,转引自李京原:《从美国对日本的经济制裁看太平洋战争爆发前美国的对日政策(1937-1941)》2003年首都师范大学硕士论文,第6页。
②阿诺德·汤因比主编:《第二次世界大战史大战前夕1939年》(劳景素译),上海译文出版社,1995年,第1023页。
③黄虎清:《二战结束前的日本南进》,《科技信息(学术研究)》,2007年第23期,第121页。
④. W. N. Medlicott, British Foreign Policy Since Versailles, 1919-1963, (London: Methuen, 1968), p.217,转引自信夫清三郎:《日本外交史下册》(天津社会科学院日本问题研究所译),北京:商务印书馆,1980年,第643页
①齐世荣:《中国抗日战争与国际关系》,载《绥靖政策研究》(齐世荣主编),北京:首都师范大学出版社,1998年,第413页。
②李京原:《从美国对日本的经济制裁看太平洋战争爆发前美国的对日政策(1937-1941)》2003年首都师范大学硕士论文,第4页。
③赫伯特·菲斯:《通向珍珠港之路——美日战争的来临》(周颖如李家善译),北京:商务印书馆,1983年版,第257页。
④Waldo Heinrichs, Threshold of War: Frankin D. Roosevelt and American Entry into World War, (London: Oxford University Press, 1990), p.136.
⑤赫伯特·菲斯:《通向珍珠港之路——美日战争的来临》(周颖如李家善译),北京:商务印书馆,1983年版,第257页。
⑥Jonathan G. Utley, Going to War with Japan 1937-1941, (Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press, 1985), p.156
①Waldo Heinrichs, Threshold of War: Frankin D. Roosevelt and American Entry into World War, (London: Oxford University Press, 1990), p.136.
②Akira Iriye, The Origins of the Second World War in Asia and the Pacific, (New York: Longman, 1987), p. 150
③Borg Dorothy & Shrimps Okamoto, Pearl Harbor as History: Japanese-American relations 1931–1941, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1973), p. 320.
④齐世荣:《中国抗日战争与国际关系》,载《绥靖政策研究》(齐世荣主编),北京:首都师范大学出版社,1998年,第413页。
⑤Margaret Lamb & Nicholas Tarling, From Versailles to Pearl Harbor: The Origins of the Second World War in Europe and Asia, (New York: Palgrave, 2001), pp. 174-175.
⑥李京原:《从美国对日本的经济制裁看太平洋战争爆发前美国的对日政策(1937-1941)》,2003年首都师范大学硕士论文,第26页。
⑦信夫清三郎:《日本外交史下册》(天津社会科学院日本问题研究所译),北京:商务印书馆,1980年,第670页。
①美国国务院:《美国外交文件:日本,1931-1941第二卷》(张玮瑛译),北京:中国社会科学出版社,1998年,第747页。
②科德尔·赫尔:《赫尔回忆录》,第一卷,纽约:麦克米伦公司,1948年,第551页,转引自李京原:《从美国对日本的经济制裁看太平洋战争爆发前美国的对日政策(1937-1941)》2003年首都师范大学硕士论文,第6页。
③阿诺德·汤因比主编:《第二次世界大战史大战前夕1939年》(劳景素译),上海译文出版社,1995年,第1023页。
④王斯德,李巨廉:《论太平洋战前美国远东战略及其演变》,《历史研究》,1982年第6期,第171页。
①王绳祖:《国际关系史第六卷(1939-1945)》,世界知识出版社,1995年,第174页。
②Ian Nish, Japanese Foreign Policy, 1869-1942: Kasumigaseki to Miyakezaka (London: Routledge, 1977), p. 244
③王绳祖:《国际关系史第六卷(1939-1945)》,世界知识出版社,1995年,第174页。
④罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈:《权力与相互依赖》(林茂辉等译),北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,1992年3月版,第26页。
①王绳祖:《国际关系史第四卷(1918-1929)》,世界知识出版社,1995年,第54页。
②同上,第55页。
③同上,第52页。
①布厄尔:《国际问题概观》(徐百齐译),北京:商务印书馆,1933年,第485页。
②王绳祖:《国际关系史第四卷(1918-1929)》,世界知识出版社,1995年,第175页。
③王绳祖:《国际关系史第四卷(1918-1929)》,世界知识出版社,1995年,第173页。
①Barry Buzan,“Economic Structure and International Security: The Limits of the Liberal Case”, International Organization, (Fall, 1984), p. 598
②Edward D. Mansfield & Brian M. Pollins, ed. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate, (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003), p.20.
①A. O. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, (Berkeley & Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1945), p. 13.
②参见Mark J. C. Crescenzi, Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics, (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2005), p. 50
①邵亚楼:《国际经济制裁:历史演进与理论探析》,2008年上海社会科学院博士论文,第50页。
②Mark J. C. Crescenzi, Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics, (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2005), p. 144.
①Mark J. C. Crescenzi, Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics, (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2005), p. 145.
②Edward D. Mansfield & Brian M. Pollins, ed. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate, (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003), p.5.
③Edward D. Mansfield & Brian M. Pollins, ed. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate, (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003), p.5.
④Mark J. C. Crescenzi, Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics, (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2005), pp. 248-249.
①亚历山大·温特:《国际政治的社会理论》(秦亚青译),上海人民出版社,2008年1月版,第263页。
①Kimberly Ann Elliott & Gary Clyde,“Herbier Ineffectiveness of Economic Sanctions: Same Song, Same Refrain Economic Sanctions in the 1990’s”, The American Economic Review, (May. 2, 1999), p. 403.
①邵亚楼:《国际经济制裁:历史演进与理论探析》,2008年上海社会科学院博士论文,第52页。
②颜剑英,罗锦秀:《冷战结束后美国对外经济制裁的新发展》,《世界经济与政治》,2005年第2期,第81页。
①邵亚楼:《国际经济制裁:历史演进与理论探析》,2008年上海社会科学院博士论文,第128页。
②同上,第11页。
③Joseph M. Grieco & G. John Ikenberry, State Power and World Market: the International Political Economic, (New York and London: W. Wonton & Company, 2003), p. 164.
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