中国跨境资金流动监管有效性研究
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摘要
在经济金融日益全球化的今天，跨境资金流动已成为国际经济金融界关注的焦点之一。国际经验表明，跨境资金的正常流动是推动一国经济发展的重要力量，但在内外各种因素影响下，跨境资金非正常流动尤其是大进大出，容易对一国经济产生影响甚至较大冲击，一定条件下还有可能触发货币、银行、债务等金融危机。20世纪70-80年代的拉美金融危机，90年代的亚洲金融危机、俄罗斯和巴西的货币危机，以及本轮2008年的国际金融危机无不与跨境资金短期集中大规模流动密切相关。
伴随着日益融入全球经济一体化进程，我国跨境资金流动规模迅速增长，在对我国经济增长发挥了显著推动作用的同时，也给我国经济金融安全带来挑战。如何建立适应我国经济金融发展的跨境资金流动监管框架，既能充分利用跨境资金流动对我国经济金融发展的推动作用，又能有效防范跨境资金大进大出带来的风险，成为我国在未来较长一段时间内必须面对的重大现实课题。
本文以跨境资金流动监管有效性为题，对我国跨境资金流动监管的发展历程和特殊性做一介绍，从宏观和微观两个层面对我国跨境资金流动监管有效性进行总体评估，从国内和国外两个角度对影响我国跨境资金流动监管有效性因素进行分析。从国内看，监管目标定位不够合理、监管体系相对滞后、宏观审慎监管框架尚未建立、我国经济发展的特殊阶段、人民币跨境业务发展等是影响的主要因素。从国际看，当前不合理的国际货币体系增加了我国跨境资金流动的脆弱性，是影响监管有效性的主要因素。
本文系统总结具有代表性的部分发达国家、国际货币基金组织和发展中国家跨境资金流动监管实践经验。在此基础上，结合我国实际和未来形势发展，提出了完善我国跨境资金流动监管思路和框架。就监管思路而言，就是以风险管理为导向，厘清政府和市场的边界，发挥市场在配置资源中的决定性作用，并更好地发挥政府的作用，由事前监管转为事中和事后监管，以行政法规规制为主转为宏观审慎监管，与经济金融开放水平相适应，兼顾短期、中期和长期，坚持均衡管理，防范由跨境资金流动所引致的金融危机。
在此思路指导下，相应的跨境资金流动监管框架包括三个层面：第一层面，市场在配置资源中起决定性作用，即汇率、利率等价格手段在调节跨境资金流动中起决定性作用。第二层面，更好地发挥政府的作用，即转变监管理念和方式，兼顾便利化和防风险，建立与市场主体经营模式相适应的监管框架，包括完善微观审慎监管框架、建立健全宏观审慎监管框架、保留资本管制权利、引入预期管理和建立危机预警体系。第三层面，建立部门合作和国际合作，即完善跨境资金流动监管的国内部门间合作和国际间合作，实现信息共享，形成监管合力。
In the current times of economic and financial globalization,cross-border capital flow has become one of the focuses of attention ofthe international economic and financial circles. International experienceshows that, the normal flow of cross-border capital is an important forceto promote the economic development of a country, but affected by thevarious internal and external factors, abnormal cross-border capital flow,especially largely flowing in and out, will be a great bad impact on acountry’s economy. Under certain conditions, there may trigger currency、banking and debt crisis. Financial crisis in Latin America in twentiethcentury70-80years, the Asian financial crisis, Russia and Brazil currencycrisis in twentieth century90years, as well as global financial crisis in2008, is closely related to large-scale cross-border capital flow.
With the integration into the global economy, China's cross-bordercapital flow has grown rapidly, which has played a significant role inChina’s economic growth, and brought challenges to the safety of China’seconomy and finance at the same time. How to adapt to establishcross-border capital flow regulation framework, which can promote fulluse of cross-border capital flow to China’s economic and financialdevelopment, and can effectively prevent the risks of large-scalecross-border capital flow, has become a great realistic subject for a longperiod of the future.
The paper entitles effective supervision of cross-border capital flows,introduces the development process and speciality of China's cross-bordercapital flow regulation, make the overall evaluation of effectiveness ofChina’s cross-border capital flow regulation from two aspects of macroand micro, carries on the analysis to the impact of China's cross-bordercapital flow regulation effectiveness factors from two angles at home andabroad. From a domestic perspective, not reasonable regulatory targetpositioning, relatively backward supervision system, no macro-prudentialsupervision framework, special economy development stage, RMBcross-border business development, are the main affecting factors. From ainternational perspective, the current unreasonable international monetary system increasing the vulnerability of cross-border capital flow in ourcountry, is the main factor affecting the effectiveness of supervision.
The paper summarizes the practical experiences of supervision ofcross-border capital flows from some representative developed anddeveloping countries and IMF. On this basis, combined with theactual situation and the future development of our country, the paper putsforward to perfect China's cross-border capital flow regulation framework.On the regulation ideas, it is the guidance of risk management, clarifiesthe boundary of government and the market, makes the market playing adecisive role in allocating resources and the government playing a betterrole, transfers from exante regulation to afterwards regulation, fromadministrative regulation to macro-prudential supervision, adapts to theeconomic and financial openness level, takes into account both short-termand immediate and long-term interests, insists the balanced management,prevent the the financial crisis arising from cross-border capital flow.
Under this guideline, the corresponding cross-border capital flowsregulatory framework includes three levels: The first level, themarket plays a decisive role in allocating resources, namely the exchangerate、interest rate and other price measures playing a decisive role in theregulation of cross-border capital flows. The second level, governmentplays a better role, that is to transform the ideas and ways of supervision,to take into account both facilitation and anti-risk, to set up regulationframewok suitable to business pattern of business takers, including theimprovement of micro-prudential supervision framework, establishing asound framework for macro prudential regulation, reserving capitalcontrol rights, introducing expectation management and establishing thecrisis early warning system. The third level, it is to establish the domesticand international cooperation correlation, which is to improve thesupervision cooperation of cross-border capital flows at home and abroad,to realize information sharing and form a resultant force.
伴随着日益融入全球经济一体化进程，我国跨境资金流动规模迅速增长，在对我国经济增长发挥了显著推动作用的同时，也给我国经济金融安全带来挑战。如何建立适应我国经济金融发展的跨境资金流动监管框架，既能充分利用跨境资金流动对我国经济金融发展的推动作用，又能有效防范跨境资金大进大出带来的风险，成为我国在未来较长一段时间内必须面对的重大现实课题。
本文以跨境资金流动监管有效性为题，对我国跨境资金流动监管的发展历程和特殊性做一介绍，从宏观和微观两个层面对我国跨境资金流动监管有效性进行总体评估，从国内和国外两个角度对影响我国跨境资金流动监管有效性因素进行分析。从国内看，监管目标定位不够合理、监管体系相对滞后、宏观审慎监管框架尚未建立、我国经济发展的特殊阶段、人民币跨境业务发展等是影响的主要因素。从国际看，当前不合理的国际货币体系增加了我国跨境资金流动的脆弱性，是影响监管有效性的主要因素。
本文系统总结具有代表性的部分发达国家、国际货币基金组织和发展中国家跨境资金流动监管实践经验。在此基础上，结合我国实际和未来形势发展，提出了完善我国跨境资金流动监管思路和框架。就监管思路而言，就是以风险管理为导向，厘清政府和市场的边界，发挥市场在配置资源中的决定性作用，并更好地发挥政府的作用，由事前监管转为事中和事后监管，以行政法规规制为主转为宏观审慎监管，与经济金融开放水平相适应，兼顾短期、中期和长期，坚持均衡管理，防范由跨境资金流动所引致的金融危机。
在此思路指导下，相应的跨境资金流动监管框架包括三个层面：第一层面，市场在配置资源中起决定性作用，即汇率、利率等价格手段在调节跨境资金流动中起决定性作用。第二层面，更好地发挥政府的作用，即转变监管理念和方式，兼顾便利化和防风险，建立与市场主体经营模式相适应的监管框架，包括完善微观审慎监管框架、建立健全宏观审慎监管框架、保留资本管制权利、引入预期管理和建立危机预警体系。第三层面，建立部门合作和国际合作，即完善跨境资金流动监管的国内部门间合作和国际间合作，实现信息共享，形成监管合力。
In the current times of economic and financial globalization,cross-border capital flow has become one of the focuses of attention ofthe international economic and financial circles. International experienceshows that, the normal flow of cross-border capital is an important forceto promote the economic development of a country, but affected by thevarious internal and external factors, abnormal cross-border capital flow,especially largely flowing in and out, will be a great bad impact on acountry’s economy. Under certain conditions, there may trigger currency、banking and debt crisis. Financial crisis in Latin America in twentiethcentury70-80years, the Asian financial crisis, Russia and Brazil currencycrisis in twentieth century90years, as well as global financial crisis in2008, is closely related to large-scale cross-border capital flow.
With the integration into the global economy, China's cross-bordercapital flow has grown rapidly, which has played a significant role inChina’s economic growth, and brought challenges to the safety of China’seconomy and finance at the same time. How to adapt to establishcross-border capital flow regulation framework, which can promote fulluse of cross-border capital flow to China’s economic and financialdevelopment, and can effectively prevent the risks of large-scalecross-border capital flow, has become a great realistic subject for a longperiod of the future.
The paper entitles effective supervision of cross-border capital flows,introduces the development process and speciality of China's cross-bordercapital flow regulation, make the overall evaluation of effectiveness ofChina’s cross-border capital flow regulation from two aspects of macroand micro, carries on the analysis to the impact of China's cross-bordercapital flow regulation effectiveness factors from two angles at home andabroad. From a domestic perspective, not reasonable regulatory targetpositioning, relatively backward supervision system, no macro-prudentialsupervision framework, special economy development stage, RMBcross-border business development, are the main affecting factors. From ainternational perspective, the current unreasonable international monetary system increasing the vulnerability of cross-border capital flow in ourcountry, is the main factor affecting the effectiveness of supervision.
The paper summarizes the practical experiences of supervision ofcross-border capital flows from some representative developed anddeveloping countries and IMF. On this basis, combined with theactual situation and the future development of our country, the paper putsforward to perfect China's cross-border capital flow regulation framework.On the regulation ideas, it is the guidance of risk management, clarifiesthe boundary of government and the market, makes the market playing adecisive role in allocating resources and the government playing a betterrole, transfers from exante regulation to afterwards regulation, fromadministrative regulation to macro-prudential supervision, adapts to theeconomic and financial openness level, takes into account both short-termand immediate and long-term interests, insists the balanced management,prevent the the financial crisis arising from cross-border capital flow.
Under this guideline, the corresponding cross-border capital flowsregulatory framework includes three levels: The first level, themarket plays a decisive role in allocating resources, namely the exchangerate、interest rate and other price measures playing a decisive role in theregulation of cross-border capital flows. The second level, governmentplays a better role, that is to transform the ideas and ways of supervision,to take into account both facilitation and anti-risk, to set up regulationframewok suitable to business pattern of business takers, including theimprovement of micro-prudential supervision framework, establishing asound framework for macro prudential regulation, reserving capitalcontrol rights, introducing expectation management and establishing thecrisis early warning system. The third level, it is to establish the domesticand international cooperation correlation, which is to improve thesupervision cooperation of cross-border capital flows at home and abroad,to realize information sharing and form a resultant force.
引文
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