货币危机与人民币汇率制度选择研究
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摘要
近20年来，货币危机的频繁发生对世界经济的不利影响也越发严重起来，这就使得人们不得不面对这一严峻的现实，思索如何有效地遏制和防范货币危机的发生。因此，探索货币危机的发生和发展机理，危机的传导过程，研究货币危机对经济造成的影响，设计防范货币危机发生的政策措施和制度安排，显得具有重要的理论与现实意义。
当前，我国正处于经济转轨时期，经济体制与市场结构都存存许多不完善的地方，在经济运行的过程中会存在较多的结构性和制度性风险。在这样的情况下，危机四伏的国际金融市场给我国的货币当局提出了严峻的挑战。人民币汇率制度作为一项重要的金融制度也正不断地被改革以迎接挑战。
本文从货币危机的发生机理出发，从理论分析到现实分析两个层面深入研究货币危机的背景、成因、传导过程。然后着眼于货币危机的制度成因，通过对货币危机与汇率制度的关系研究发现：不能武断地说哪种汇率制度好与不好，一国经济处于何种状态，并根据本国经济的内外均衡状况选择相适应的汇率制度，这点对于抑制货币危机发生以及促进本国经济的增长至关重要。因此，只能相机选择，而不能墨守陈规。那么，在国际投机性资本日益猖獗的形势下，人民币汇率应该选择怎样的汇率制度才能有效地抑制货币危机的发生?本文认为，人民币汇率制度的现实选择应该是介于固定汇率与浮动汇率制度之间中间汇率制度。最后，本文对人民币汇率目标区制度提出了设计思路。本文正是围绕货币危机成因分析→货币危机与汇率制度关系研究→应选择怎样的人民币汇率制度这根主线把全文五大部分连成一个有机的整体。
全文五大章概述如下：论文第一章货币危机的理论分析，在这一章中首先对货币危机的概念进行了界定，并对货币危机的第一代模型与第二代模型进行了研究，同时对发展中国家货币危机进行了分析，结果发现第一代货币危机模型能够较好的解释发展中国家爆发货币危机的原因。第二章是货币危机的现实分析，在这一章中针对1992～993年欧洲货币危机和1997～1998年的亚洲金融危机中的东南亚货币危机进行了案例式的探讨。欧洲货币危机是货币联盟国家外部联合浮动汇率制与欧盟内部发展不均衡引发危机的经典案例，而东南亚货币危机是研究发展中国家货币危机的较好代表。现实分析的结果也映证了钉住美元的固定汇率制度与经济周期的不匹配是爆发货币危机的制度成因。论文的第三章开始分析汇率制度与货币危机的关系。本文的观点是在抑制货币危机的发生方面，浮动汇率制度的确比固定汇率制度显得更有优势，但是最重要的还是根据经济的不同发展阶
段，以及才、【r、}纤济的l勺今卜均衡状态来选择护I率{}j‘」度。亡仑交的第口L!，二今夕:‘.合夕l率;!』lj夏
选择理论对人民(n丫}_率制度进布rJ’分析，从长期来石，人民币刘率制J夏应该选择
、’J动;l宁制反这于‘}‘赶了J一平IJJ一于印制货币危机的发‘1:，f日在’，，!」、1”，j}i勺一所处的11刁F/J、余例{
人州沙竟}、一，以及}ltl内经济处J‘一转轨时期的前提卜，中间7【率制度是人民币汇率制
，廷的」见实选择，!红体i兑就是选择人民币之率卜}标区伟l!度。交章第11_部分结介克鲁
格曼的份!_率日标区理沦对人民币汇率}!标区制度提出厂自己的设乙十思路，井为构
建人民币2!率日标1、的预警体系提出了政策建议。最后J}}实证分析的方法对人民
币均衡汇率的影响1引素进行了协整分析，为汇率目标区中心、汇率的确定提供了分
析依据，并对我国实施汇率目标区汇率制度的时机提出了建议。
In the past 20 years, the adverse effect on the international economy has become more serious because of erupting frequently in currency crisis, This make people face this severe reality, think how contain and take precautions against the emergences of currency crisis effectively. So, probe the emergence of the currency crisis and develop mechanism, the course of conducting of the crisis, Studied the effect of currency crisis on economy and design precautions against currency crisis and system arrange for policies and measures who currency crisis take place, Seeming has important theory and realistic meaning.
At present, our country is being in economic transition period , all there are a lot of places not perfect in economic system and market structure, Have more structural and system quality risk among the courses of economical operation. In case of this, crisis-ridden international financial markets have put forward the severe challenge for the currency authorities of our country. System at one a item of important monetary systems too constantly at the reform in order to meet a challenge exchange rate RMB.
This paper proceed from mechanism of the currency crisis, analyzed from theory and realistic. Then focus on the system origin cause of formation of the currency crisis, discover through the relation to the currency crisis and exchange rate system: we can not say any kind of bad exchange rate regimes are bad or not, it is very important to a country of economies in any states, And whether inside and outside national economies balanced state choose the system of exchange rate meeting, This point for suppressing monetary crisis take place and promote national economies essential growth, we can only choice when opportunity is well and can not stick to outmoded practice. Then, under international speculative capital rampant situation day by days, should choose what kind of 's exchange rate regime? This paper think choose intermediate exchange rale regime in which lie fixed exchange rate and floating rate regime. At last, this paper propose train of thought of designing to RMB target zones exchange rate regime. Th
is text is exactly around the analysis of origin cause of formation of monetary crisis currency crisis and exchange rate system relation are studied and Choose what kind of's RMB exchange rate regime the thread link an organic whole full text including 5parts.
Five chapters of full text are summed up as follows: The theory of the monetary crisis of chapter one of the thesis analysis, the concept to the monetary crisis at first has been defined in this chapter, And has studied the first generation of model and the second generation of model of the monetary crisis, Analysis developing country's monetary crisis at the same time, Result find better explanation the reasons of erupting monetary crisis in developing countries by a generation of monetary crisis model. It is
the realistic analysis of the currency crisis in Chapter two, Among this chapter Southeast Asia monetary crisis and Europe monetary crisis and the Asian financial crisis carry on case the discussions of type. The Ivuropean monetary crisis is that the national outside of alliance of currency unites the system of floating rate with the halanced classical case which cause the crisis of development inside European Union, The Southeast Asian monetary crisis is betters representative who studies developing country's monetary crisis. Result who reality analysis reflect card nail and live and the mismatches of economic cycle to break out the systems origin cause of formation of monetary crisis the fixed exchange rate systems of U.S. dollar too. Chapter three of the thesis begins to analysis the system of exchange rate and relation of the monetary crisis. The views of this text at the emergence respects of monetary crisis of suppressing, floating rate seem and have advantages than fixed exchange rate system really by
system, But most a important one still at a economic one at developing stage, and inside and outside national economies balanced stat
当前，我国正处于经济转轨时期，经济体制与市场结构都存存许多不完善的地方，在经济运行的过程中会存在较多的结构性和制度性风险。在这样的情况下，危机四伏的国际金融市场给我国的货币当局提出了严峻的挑战。人民币汇率制度作为一项重要的金融制度也正不断地被改革以迎接挑战。
本文从货币危机的发生机理出发，从理论分析到现实分析两个层面深入研究货币危机的背景、成因、传导过程。然后着眼于货币危机的制度成因，通过对货币危机与汇率制度的关系研究发现：不能武断地说哪种汇率制度好与不好，一国经济处于何种状态，并根据本国经济的内外均衡状况选择相适应的汇率制度，这点对于抑制货币危机发生以及促进本国经济的增长至关重要。因此，只能相机选择，而不能墨守陈规。那么，在国际投机性资本日益猖獗的形势下，人民币汇率应该选择怎样的汇率制度才能有效地抑制货币危机的发生?本文认为，人民币汇率制度的现实选择应该是介于固定汇率与浮动汇率制度之间中间汇率制度。最后，本文对人民币汇率目标区制度提出了设计思路。本文正是围绕货币危机成因分析→货币危机与汇率制度关系研究→应选择怎样的人民币汇率制度这根主线把全文五大部分连成一个有机的整体。
全文五大章概述如下：论文第一章货币危机的理论分析，在这一章中首先对货币危机的概念进行了界定，并对货币危机的第一代模型与第二代模型进行了研究，同时对发展中国家货币危机进行了分析，结果发现第一代货币危机模型能够较好的解释发展中国家爆发货币危机的原因。第二章是货币危机的现实分析，在这一章中针对1992～993年欧洲货币危机和1997～1998年的亚洲金融危机中的东南亚货币危机进行了案例式的探讨。欧洲货币危机是货币联盟国家外部联合浮动汇率制与欧盟内部发展不均衡引发危机的经典案例，而东南亚货币危机是研究发展中国家货币危机的较好代表。现实分析的结果也映证了钉住美元的固定汇率制度与经济周期的不匹配是爆发货币危机的制度成因。论文的第三章开始分析汇率制度与货币危机的关系。本文的观点是在抑制货币危机的发生方面，浮动汇率制度的确比固定汇率制度显得更有优势，但是最重要的还是根据经济的不同发展阶
段，以及才、【r、}纤济的l勺今卜均衡状态来选择护I率{}j‘」度。亡仑交的第口L!，二今夕:‘.合夕l率;!』lj夏
选择理论对人民(n丫}_率制度进布rJ’分析，从长期来石，人民币刘率制J夏应该选择
、’J动;l宁制反这于‘}‘赶了J一平IJJ一于印制货币危机的发‘1:，f日在’，，!」、1”，j}i勺一所处的11刁F/J、余例{
人州沙竟}、一，以及}ltl内经济处J‘一转轨时期的前提卜，中间7【率制度是人民币汇率制
，廷的」见实选择，!红体i兑就是选择人民币之率卜}标区伟l!度。交章第11_部分结介克鲁
格曼的份!_率日标区理沦对人民币汇率}!标区制度提出厂自己的设乙十思路，井为构
建人民币2!率日标1、的预警体系提出了政策建议。最后J}}实证分析的方法对人民
币均衡汇率的影响1引素进行了协整分析，为汇率目标区中心、汇率的确定提供了分
析依据，并对我国实施汇率目标区汇率制度的时机提出了建议。
In the past 20 years, the adverse effect on the international economy has become more serious because of erupting frequently in currency crisis, This make people face this severe reality, think how contain and take precautions against the emergences of currency crisis effectively. So, probe the emergence of the currency crisis and develop mechanism, the course of conducting of the crisis, Studied the effect of currency crisis on economy and design precautions against currency crisis and system arrange for policies and measures who currency crisis take place, Seeming has important theory and realistic meaning.
At present, our country is being in economic transition period , all there are a lot of places not perfect in economic system and market structure, Have more structural and system quality risk among the courses of economical operation. In case of this, crisis-ridden international financial markets have put forward the severe challenge for the currency authorities of our country. System at one a item of important monetary systems too constantly at the reform in order to meet a challenge exchange rate RMB.
This paper proceed from mechanism of the currency crisis, analyzed from theory and realistic. Then focus on the system origin cause of formation of the currency crisis, discover through the relation to the currency crisis and exchange rate system: we can not say any kind of bad exchange rate regimes are bad or not, it is very important to a country of economies in any states, And whether inside and outside national economies balanced state choose the system of exchange rate meeting, This point for suppressing monetary crisis take place and promote national economies essential growth, we can only choice when opportunity is well and can not stick to outmoded practice. Then, under international speculative capital rampant situation day by days, should choose what kind of 's exchange rate regime? This paper think choose intermediate exchange rale regime in which lie fixed exchange rate and floating rate regime. At last, this paper propose train of thought of designing to RMB target zones exchange rate regime. Th
is text is exactly around the analysis of origin cause of formation of monetary crisis currency crisis and exchange rate system relation are studied and Choose what kind of's RMB exchange rate regime the thread link an organic whole full text including 5parts.
Five chapters of full text are summed up as follows: The theory of the monetary crisis of chapter one of the thesis analysis, the concept to the monetary crisis at first has been defined in this chapter, And has studied the first generation of model and the second generation of model of the monetary crisis, Analysis developing country's monetary crisis at the same time, Result find better explanation the reasons of erupting monetary crisis in developing countries by a generation of monetary crisis model. It is
the realistic analysis of the currency crisis in Chapter two, Among this chapter Southeast Asia monetary crisis and Europe monetary crisis and the Asian financial crisis carry on case the discussions of type. The Ivuropean monetary crisis is that the national outside of alliance of currency unites the system of floating rate with the halanced classical case which cause the crisis of development inside European Union, The Southeast Asian monetary crisis is betters representative who studies developing country's monetary crisis. Result who reality analysis reflect card nail and live and the mismatches of economic cycle to break out the systems origin cause of formation of monetary crisis the fixed exchange rate systems of U.S. dollar too. Chapter three of the thesis begins to analysis the system of exchange rate and relation of the monetary crisis. The views of this text at the emergence respects of monetary crisis of suppressing, floating rate seem and have advantages than fixed exchange rate system really by
system, But most a important one still at a economic one at developing stage, and inside and outside national economies balanced stat
引文
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[2] 白钦先 论金融的可持续发展[J] 国际金融研究 1998．5 P15-17
[3] 黄达 货币银行学[M] 北京 中国人民大学出版社 1999．P102-103
[4] 理查德 国际金融市场价格与政策[M] 北京 机械工业出版社2002．P111-119
[5] 胡援成 中国资本账户开放[M]南昌 江两人民出版社 2002．P44-48、P87-88、P113-122、P129-141
[6] 姜波克 人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M] 上海 复旦大学出版社 1999．P210-218
[7] 姜波克 货币替代研究[M]上海 复日大学出版社 1999．P153-160
[8] 姜波克 开放经济下的货币市场调控[M]上海 复旦大学出版社1999．P144-146、P301
[9] 姜波克 开放经济下的政策搭配[M] 上海 复旦大学出版社 1999．P186-188
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[2] 白钦先 论金融的可持续发展[J] 国际金融研究 1998．5 P15-17
[3] 黄达 货币银行学[M] 北京 中国人民大学出版社 1999．P102-103
[4] 理查德 国际金融市场价格与政策[M] 北京 机械工业出版社2002．P111-119
[5] 胡援成 中国资本账户开放[M]南昌 江两人民出版社 2002．P44-48、P87-88、P113-122、P129-141
[6] 姜波克 人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M] 上海 复旦大学出版社 1999．P210-218
[7] 姜波克 货币替代研究[M]上海 复日大学出版社 1999．P153-160
[8] 姜波克 开放经济下的货币市场调控[M]上海 复旦大学出版社1999．P144-146、P301
[9] 姜波克 开放经济下的政策搭配[M] 上海 复旦大学出版社 1999．P186-188
[10] 俞乔 亚州金融危机与我国汇率政策[J] 经济研究 1997．10 P8-9
[11] 龚关 国际金融理论[M]武汉 武汉大学出版社 2000．P177-196
[12] 于方林 肖林 金融贸易全球化战略协同[M]上海 上海财经大学出版社 2002 P212-215
[13] 陈全庚 中国外汇管理体制改革和建设[M]南京 江苏人民出版社 2001
[14] 安德列等 新兴市场国家实行通胀目标所面临的问题 中国金融出版社 2002
[15] 陆前进 杨槐 开放经济下宏观金融风险管理[M] 上海财经大学出版社 2002 P1635、P172-180
[16] 李扬 中国对外经济开放过程中的资金流动[J]经济研究1998．2 P14-24
[17] 刘明康 国际金融报告[R]北京 经济科学出版社 2002 P20-25
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