土地政策传导机制与路径的分析与仿真
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摘要
土地是人类生产和生活所必须的物质基础,任何形态的产业发展最终都要落到土地上,对于处在工业化和城市化进程中的中国来说,人地矛盾尤为尖锐,出现了许多与土地有关的突出矛盾和问题,如耕地的不断被侵吞对国家粮食安全的威胁,地方违法违规用地情况严重,地方政府为招商引资低成本供地,并造成部分行业产业投资过热和产能过剩,房地产价格上涨过快导致的重要民生问题,等等。为调节宏观经济行为、促使土地可持续利用和诱导人们集约用地,从2003年起土地政策开始参与宏观调控,随后土地政策正式成为除货币政策和财政政策之外的中国第三个宏观调控手段,且温家宝总理也多次指出：“关键是管理好土地和信贷,这是宏观调控最为关键的环节。一个土地,一个信贷,非常重要。”
而完善的土地政策传导机制和畅通的传导路径,是宏观调控中管理好土地并充分发挥调控效应的基本保证。但当前对于土地政策调控的传导机制如何有效设计、土地政策经过什么路径传导、传导过程会遭遇哪些阻滞以及如何应对、加强土地与产业和货币等政策的一致性和协调性以形成调控合力等问题,无论是理论界还是政府部门均未达成共识,亟待进一步的研究,也成为本文研究的出发点。尤其随着国家新一轮土地调控的启动和当前复杂的经济背景下,对这些问题的探索更显必要和急迫。
本文以宏观调控中土地政策的传导问题为主线,综合运用土地经济学、土地管理学、协整理论、系统论等理论知识分析了土地宏观调控的科学性,构建了土地政策传导机制框架和理论命题；对土地调控中的阻滞和协调问题,采用信息经济学的委托代理理论设计了在土地政策执行博弈中对地方政府的线性问责机制,并从TU和NTU合作博弈视角研究了土地与其他政策的协调搭配；最后运用系统动力学理论和本文所提出的关联数字矩阵反馈环计算方法,分析了土地政策传导路径及其反馈复杂性,进而使用系统动力学建模技术对江西省土地政策传导系统和路径进行仿真,通过灵敏度分析得出调控方案,最后提出相应对策建议。
本文主要研究结论和成果如下：
1、实证检验了土地政策参与宏观调控的科学性,并运用协整理论的弹性分析和冲击函数时滞分析方法研究了社会经济系统变化对耕地保护的影响。
检验结果表明,耕地保护、控制投资、稳定房价等方面都需要土地参与宏观调控；通过耕地保护来保障国家粮食安全的长期效率较高,但其影响具有时滞；产业结构、农业生产成本、固定投资规模对于耕地保护影响显著；土地整理开发可以有效补充耕地。
2、建立了政策传导机制的概念模型,设计了土地政策传导机制框架,发现了土地政策传导过程中的三大矛盾。
研究发现,土地政策传导过程中存在基于主客体分布的土地政策空间传导路径和基于媒介体运动的土地政策时间传导路径,指出了单一土地政策传导时可能陷入成长上限、饮鸩止渴和舍本逐末三大矛盾,并给出两大破解理论命题。
3、从非合作博弈和合作博弈两大博弈视角,分别对土地调控中地方政府失责行为设计了线性问责机制,对土地等宏观政策的协调搭配进行TU(可转移效用)和NTU(不可转移效用)博弈分析。
从土地政策空间传导层面上,“政策执行难”及地方政府对宏观调控政策的响应乏力,使土地政策在宏观调控中也常遭遇执行环节地方政府失责的困境,存在一些地方和中央两级政府主体的博弈行为。通过分析中央政府和地方政府在土地政策传导过程的委托代理关系,引入失责补偿转移变量,对Holmstrom & Milgrom简化模型进行局部改进,建立地方政府线性问责机制,为地方政府土地考核问责体系提供一种理论分析和定量绩效考评的思路。土地、信贷、产业等宏观政策的协调搭配又是一个新时期的新课题,根据宏观政策调控收益可否任意转移,各项宏观政策的协调搭配可分别看作TU合作博弈和NTU合作博弈,通过对调控政策和效应的区分及对调控收益的分配分析,给出了确定土地等宏观政策组合中各项政策调控力度的简易算法。
4、建立了解决系统反馈复杂性问题的关联数字矩阵反馈环及基模计算方法,并应用于土地政策传导路径和系统的反馈复杂性分析中。
通过矩阵描述因果关系图中的普通变量、流位变量、因果链、极性,构造出与因果关系图一一对应的关联数字矩阵,然后对数字矩阵采用逐步缩小法和稀疏矩阵优化计算法,建立一种直接从因果关系图(流图)出发的反馈环计算法,得出因果关系图中包含所有反馈环及其特征的反馈环矩阵。并结合三类常用系统基模的简单数学定义和反馈环矩阵,得出因果关系图中所隐含的系统基模。在分析土地政策传导系统的因果关系图和对调控因子与流位变量归类基础上,应用上述关联数字矩阵反馈环计算方法研究土地政策主导反馈子系统的反馈复杂性,取得了良好效果。
5、构建了江西省土地政策传导系统SD仿真模型,有效使用了系统动力学单因素灵敏度方法分析了该模型中政策调控方案的敏感性,并在此基础上提出符合江西省土地利用总体规划(2006—2010)要求的政策调控方案。
在上述研究基础上,选择了四个政策调控因子,并结合系统动力学的流率基本入树模型建模技术,构造了八棵流率基本入树,得出江西省土地政策传导系统流图,并在调查研究的基础上建立了相应的仿真方程。通过运行仿真,测试了系统行为的灵敏性,并对各政策因子进行了单因素灵敏度分析,得出各政策在系统中的角色地位,再结合江西土地利用总体规划(2006—2020)中的调控要求提出政策调控标准,对政策因子按灵敏度大小顺序对递归方案进行调控,得到了一套满足调控目标设定标准的理想方案,调控后的理想方案仿真结果能够达到江西省未来10年土地利用总体规划和经济发展规划要求。
综上表明,本文对土地政策传导机制和路径的深入研究和剖析,找出土地调控中的运行矛盾和解决思路,模拟土地政策传导走势,预测土地调控结果,符合我国当前经济形势和宏观调控要求,具有显著的理论和应用价值,同时,也显示出系统动力学方法在政策仿真领域中的强大生命力和广阔应用前景。
Land is the material basis of the production and life of mankind and any industry has to depend on land. In China where industrialization and urbanization is growing at an amazing speed, the conflict between man and land gets increasingly intense, which has led to a band of problems. For example, the shrinking farm land has become threat to the national food security; local governments misuse land and supply low cost land for the sake of introducing investment. Consequently, it gives rise to the over-hot investment in some industries, over-capacity in production and the livelihood-concerning issue of soaring property price. With an eye to adapt macro-economic behavior and to use land in a sustainable way, land policy has been involved in macro-control since 2003 and it has now become the third macro-control means following monetary policy and financial policy. Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out over and again, "The key to macro-control is the management of land and credit. Both are substantial."
However, improved transmission mechanism and unblocked pathway of land policy is fundamental to the administration of land and full play of macro-control. However, no consensus has been made among the academic world and governments about how to design an effective transmission mechanism of land policy, how to make joint efforts in integrating and coordinating land, industry and monetary policy. With the nation's launching of a new round of land macro-control and the complicated economic background, these issues call for immediate research and they become the focus of the dissertation.
Concentrated on the transmission of land policy and with the guidance of land economics, the theory of co-integration and system and an analysis of the scientific land macro-control, the dissertation first formulates the frame and theoretical assumption of the transmission mechanism in land policy; and next, with the help of principal-agent theory in information economics, the dissertation puts forward the linear accountability system against the government's defaulting when game is played in land policy and investigates into the coordination of land and other policies from the point view of the cooperative game between TU and NTU. Finally, based on the theory of system dynamics and the calculation method of related digital matrix feedback loop proposed in the dissertation, the pathway of land policy transmission and the complicated feedback is analyzed and then with resort to the modeling technique of the theory of system dynamics, the land policy transmission system and pathway is simulated whose sensitivity is analyzed to figure out control schemes and subsequently related suggestion is made.
The major findings are listed as below:
Firstly, experiments demonstrate that it is scientific for land policy to get involved in macro-control and the effect of the change in farmland and food system on the farmland conservation is analyzed with the application of flexibility analysis in co-integration theory and retardation of impact function.
The findings indicate that it is urgent for land to participate in the macro-control of land conservation, investment and property price; that the effect of land protection on the nation's food security is long-term but may delay from time to time; that land conservation is significantly influenced by industrial structure, agricultural production cost and the scope of fixed asset investment; that integrated development of land is beneficial to replenish arable land.
Secondly, a conception model of the policy transmission mechanism is established; a corresponding frame is designed.
It is discovered the spatial transmission pathway of land policy based on the distribution of subjects and objects as well as the temporal transmission pathway of land policy based on the movement of conductors. The dissertation goes further to point out that single land policy will probably lead to three problems. Land will meet its growth top limit; its remedy may be worse than the evil and the shadow may be grasped while the substance may be let go. To combat this, two assumptions are proposed.
Thirdly, the dissertation proposed linear accountability system against the local government's default in policy control with the theory of non-and cooperative game, and analyzes the coordination of the macro-control of land with TU and NTU.
As to the spatial transmission of land policy, difficulty in execution and the local government's reluctant response to macro-control policy contribute to the local government's default in the enforcement of land policy as part of macro-control and the game between the local and central government. When analyzing the principal-agent relation between the central and local government in the process of land policy transmission, the variable of mobile default compensation is introduced to partially modify the simplified Holmstrom & Milgrom Model. In this way, a linear accountability system is established as evaluation criteria to local governments' performance in the implementation of land policy. In addition, the coordination among land, credit and industry is new subject in the new era. According to whether the macro-control profit is arbitrarily mobile, coordination in different macro-control policies can be regarded respectively as TU and NTU cooperative game. By differentiating macro-control policy and its effectiveness and analyzing the distribution of macro-control profit, a simple method is defined in calculating the manipulating force of each in the combination of a wide range of policies with land included.
Fourthly, the calculation method of related digital matrix feedback loop and base module is raised and applied to the analysis of complicated feedback in the transmission pathway of land policy.
The ordinary variables, level variables, the cause-and-effect chain and polarity in the causality graph are described by the matrix. Thus, a related digital matrix is built with one-to-one correspondence to the graph. With the application of gradual reduction and sparse matrix optimization computation, a feedback loop matrix is obtained containing all of the feedback loops and their characteristics in the graph. And then with the combination of simple mathematical definition in three commonly used base models and the feedback loop matrix, a hidden systematical base model is achieved from the causality graph. With the approach discussed above and the analysis of the causality graph of the transmission system of land policy and categorizing the regulatory factors and level variables, the research is very fruitful in the complicated feedback of the sub-system controlled by land policy.
Fifthly, a SD simulation model is built for the transmission system of land policy in Jiangxi Province. The effective use of the system dynamics method of single factor analysis of the sensitivity of the model, the sensitivity of policy control solutions, and on this basis that meet An Overall Plan for the Land Utility in Jiangxi Province (2006-2020) to require policy control programs.
Based on the research mentioned above, four policy regulatory factors are selected and the modeling technique of rate variable fundamental in-tree model in system dynamics is used to create 8 rate variable fundamental in-tree model before a flow graph is drawn of the land policy transmission system in Jiangxi Province and corresponding simulation equations are built. In the process of simulation, the sensitivity of the system behavior is tested and the sensitivity of each policy factor is analyzed as well. Thus, the role of each policy in the system is defined. Next, the standard of policy control is put forward according to the demands in An Overall Plan for the Land Utility in Jiangxi Province (2006-2020).In accordance with the standard, policy factors regulate the recursive scheme in the order of sensitivity as a result of witch a set of effective plans that satisfy the intended goals are obtained. The simulation result of the controlled effective schemes will meet the demand of the overall plan of land utility and economic development in Jiangxi Province in the coming decade.
To sum up, in the dissertation, a thorough research is made into the transmission mechanism and pathway of land policy; the operation conflicts are found out in land control and solution is figured out; the trend of land policy transmission is imitated and the effect of land control is predicted and it goes well with the current economic situations and meets the demand of macro-control. Therefore, the dissertation is significantly valuable both in theory and practice and it also displays the amazing vitality and broad application prospect of system dynamics approach in policy simulation.
而完善的土地政策传导机制和畅通的传导路径,是宏观调控中管理好土地并充分发挥调控效应的基本保证。但当前对于土地政策调控的传导机制如何有效设计、土地政策经过什么路径传导、传导过程会遭遇哪些阻滞以及如何应对、加强土地与产业和货币等政策的一致性和协调性以形成调控合力等问题,无论是理论界还是政府部门均未达成共识,亟待进一步的研究,也成为本文研究的出发点。尤其随着国家新一轮土地调控的启动和当前复杂的经济背景下,对这些问题的探索更显必要和急迫。
本文以宏观调控中土地政策的传导问题为主线,综合运用土地经济学、土地管理学、协整理论、系统论等理论知识分析了土地宏观调控的科学性,构建了土地政策传导机制框架和理论命题；对土地调控中的阻滞和协调问题,采用信息经济学的委托代理理论设计了在土地政策执行博弈中对地方政府的线性问责机制,并从TU和NTU合作博弈视角研究了土地与其他政策的协调搭配；最后运用系统动力学理论和本文所提出的关联数字矩阵反馈环计算方法,分析了土地政策传导路径及其反馈复杂性,进而使用系统动力学建模技术对江西省土地政策传导系统和路径进行仿真,通过灵敏度分析得出调控方案,最后提出相应对策建议。
本文主要研究结论和成果如下：
1、实证检验了土地政策参与宏观调控的科学性,并运用协整理论的弹性分析和冲击函数时滞分析方法研究了社会经济系统变化对耕地保护的影响。
检验结果表明,耕地保护、控制投资、稳定房价等方面都需要土地参与宏观调控；通过耕地保护来保障国家粮食安全的长期效率较高,但其影响具有时滞；产业结构、农业生产成本、固定投资规模对于耕地保护影响显著；土地整理开发可以有效补充耕地。
2、建立了政策传导机制的概念模型,设计了土地政策传导机制框架,发现了土地政策传导过程中的三大矛盾。
研究发现,土地政策传导过程中存在基于主客体分布的土地政策空间传导路径和基于媒介体运动的土地政策时间传导路径,指出了单一土地政策传导时可能陷入成长上限、饮鸩止渴和舍本逐末三大矛盾,并给出两大破解理论命题。
3、从非合作博弈和合作博弈两大博弈视角,分别对土地调控中地方政府失责行为设计了线性问责机制,对土地等宏观政策的协调搭配进行TU(可转移效用)和NTU(不可转移效用)博弈分析。
从土地政策空间传导层面上,“政策执行难”及地方政府对宏观调控政策的响应乏力,使土地政策在宏观调控中也常遭遇执行环节地方政府失责的困境,存在一些地方和中央两级政府主体的博弈行为。通过分析中央政府和地方政府在土地政策传导过程的委托代理关系,引入失责补偿转移变量,对Holmstrom & Milgrom简化模型进行局部改进,建立地方政府线性问责机制,为地方政府土地考核问责体系提供一种理论分析和定量绩效考评的思路。土地、信贷、产业等宏观政策的协调搭配又是一个新时期的新课题,根据宏观政策调控收益可否任意转移,各项宏观政策的协调搭配可分别看作TU合作博弈和NTU合作博弈,通过对调控政策和效应的区分及对调控收益的分配分析,给出了确定土地等宏观政策组合中各项政策调控力度的简易算法。
4、建立了解决系统反馈复杂性问题的关联数字矩阵反馈环及基模计算方法,并应用于土地政策传导路径和系统的反馈复杂性分析中。
通过矩阵描述因果关系图中的普通变量、流位变量、因果链、极性,构造出与因果关系图一一对应的关联数字矩阵,然后对数字矩阵采用逐步缩小法和稀疏矩阵优化计算法,建立一种直接从因果关系图(流图)出发的反馈环计算法,得出因果关系图中包含所有反馈环及其特征的反馈环矩阵。并结合三类常用系统基模的简单数学定义和反馈环矩阵,得出因果关系图中所隐含的系统基模。在分析土地政策传导系统的因果关系图和对调控因子与流位变量归类基础上,应用上述关联数字矩阵反馈环计算方法研究土地政策主导反馈子系统的反馈复杂性,取得了良好效果。
5、构建了江西省土地政策传导系统SD仿真模型,有效使用了系统动力学单因素灵敏度方法分析了该模型中政策调控方案的敏感性,并在此基础上提出符合江西省土地利用总体规划(2006—2010)要求的政策调控方案。
在上述研究基础上,选择了四个政策调控因子,并结合系统动力学的流率基本入树模型建模技术,构造了八棵流率基本入树,得出江西省土地政策传导系统流图,并在调查研究的基础上建立了相应的仿真方程。通过运行仿真,测试了系统行为的灵敏性,并对各政策因子进行了单因素灵敏度分析,得出各政策在系统中的角色地位,再结合江西土地利用总体规划(2006—2020)中的调控要求提出政策调控标准,对政策因子按灵敏度大小顺序对递归方案进行调控,得到了一套满足调控目标设定标准的理想方案,调控后的理想方案仿真结果能够达到江西省未来10年土地利用总体规划和经济发展规划要求。
综上表明,本文对土地政策传导机制和路径的深入研究和剖析,找出土地调控中的运行矛盾和解决思路,模拟土地政策传导走势,预测土地调控结果,符合我国当前经济形势和宏观调控要求,具有显著的理论和应用价值,同时,也显示出系统动力学方法在政策仿真领域中的强大生命力和广阔应用前景。
Land is the material basis of the production and life of mankind and any industry has to depend on land. In China where industrialization and urbanization is growing at an amazing speed, the conflict between man and land gets increasingly intense, which has led to a band of problems. For example, the shrinking farm land has become threat to the national food security; local governments misuse land and supply low cost land for the sake of introducing investment. Consequently, it gives rise to the over-hot investment in some industries, over-capacity in production and the livelihood-concerning issue of soaring property price. With an eye to adapt macro-economic behavior and to use land in a sustainable way, land policy has been involved in macro-control since 2003 and it has now become the third macro-control means following monetary policy and financial policy. Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out over and again, "The key to macro-control is the management of land and credit. Both are substantial."
However, improved transmission mechanism and unblocked pathway of land policy is fundamental to the administration of land and full play of macro-control. However, no consensus has been made among the academic world and governments about how to design an effective transmission mechanism of land policy, how to make joint efforts in integrating and coordinating land, industry and monetary policy. With the nation's launching of a new round of land macro-control and the complicated economic background, these issues call for immediate research and they become the focus of the dissertation.
Concentrated on the transmission of land policy and with the guidance of land economics, the theory of co-integration and system and an analysis of the scientific land macro-control, the dissertation first formulates the frame and theoretical assumption of the transmission mechanism in land policy; and next, with the help of principal-agent theory in information economics, the dissertation puts forward the linear accountability system against the government's defaulting when game is played in land policy and investigates into the coordination of land and other policies from the point view of the cooperative game between TU and NTU. Finally, based on the theory of system dynamics and the calculation method of related digital matrix feedback loop proposed in the dissertation, the pathway of land policy transmission and the complicated feedback is analyzed and then with resort to the modeling technique of the theory of system dynamics, the land policy transmission system and pathway is simulated whose sensitivity is analyzed to figure out control schemes and subsequently related suggestion is made.
The major findings are listed as below:
Firstly, experiments demonstrate that it is scientific for land policy to get involved in macro-control and the effect of the change in farmland and food system on the farmland conservation is analyzed with the application of flexibility analysis in co-integration theory and retardation of impact function.
The findings indicate that it is urgent for land to participate in the macro-control of land conservation, investment and property price; that the effect of land protection on the nation's food security is long-term but may delay from time to time; that land conservation is significantly influenced by industrial structure, agricultural production cost and the scope of fixed asset investment; that integrated development of land is beneficial to replenish arable land.
Secondly, a conception model of the policy transmission mechanism is established; a corresponding frame is designed.
It is discovered the spatial transmission pathway of land policy based on the distribution of subjects and objects as well as the temporal transmission pathway of land policy based on the movement of conductors. The dissertation goes further to point out that single land policy will probably lead to three problems. Land will meet its growth top limit; its remedy may be worse than the evil and the shadow may be grasped while the substance may be let go. To combat this, two assumptions are proposed.
Thirdly, the dissertation proposed linear accountability system against the local government's default in policy control with the theory of non-and cooperative game, and analyzes the coordination of the macro-control of land with TU and NTU.
As to the spatial transmission of land policy, difficulty in execution and the local government's reluctant response to macro-control policy contribute to the local government's default in the enforcement of land policy as part of macro-control and the game between the local and central government. When analyzing the principal-agent relation between the central and local government in the process of land policy transmission, the variable of mobile default compensation is introduced to partially modify the simplified Holmstrom & Milgrom Model. In this way, a linear accountability system is established as evaluation criteria to local governments' performance in the implementation of land policy. In addition, the coordination among land, credit and industry is new subject in the new era. According to whether the macro-control profit is arbitrarily mobile, coordination in different macro-control policies can be regarded respectively as TU and NTU cooperative game. By differentiating macro-control policy and its effectiveness and analyzing the distribution of macro-control profit, a simple method is defined in calculating the manipulating force of each in the combination of a wide range of policies with land included.
Fourthly, the calculation method of related digital matrix feedback loop and base module is raised and applied to the analysis of complicated feedback in the transmission pathway of land policy.
The ordinary variables, level variables, the cause-and-effect chain and polarity in the causality graph are described by the matrix. Thus, a related digital matrix is built with one-to-one correspondence to the graph. With the application of gradual reduction and sparse matrix optimization computation, a feedback loop matrix is obtained containing all of the feedback loops and their characteristics in the graph. And then with the combination of simple mathematical definition in three commonly used base models and the feedback loop matrix, a hidden systematical base model is achieved from the causality graph. With the approach discussed above and the analysis of the causality graph of the transmission system of land policy and categorizing the regulatory factors and level variables, the research is very fruitful in the complicated feedback of the sub-system controlled by land policy.
Fifthly, a SD simulation model is built for the transmission system of land policy in Jiangxi Province. The effective use of the system dynamics method of single factor analysis of the sensitivity of the model, the sensitivity of policy control solutions, and on this basis that meet An Overall Plan for the Land Utility in Jiangxi Province (2006-2020) to require policy control programs.
Based on the research mentioned above, four policy regulatory factors are selected and the modeling technique of rate variable fundamental in-tree model in system dynamics is used to create 8 rate variable fundamental in-tree model before a flow graph is drawn of the land policy transmission system in Jiangxi Province and corresponding simulation equations are built. In the process of simulation, the sensitivity of the system behavior is tested and the sensitivity of each policy factor is analyzed as well. Thus, the role of each policy in the system is defined. Next, the standard of policy control is put forward according to the demands in An Overall Plan for the Land Utility in Jiangxi Province (2006-2020).In accordance with the standard, policy factors regulate the recursive scheme in the order of sensitivity as a result of witch a set of effective plans that satisfy the intended goals are obtained. The simulation result of the controlled effective schemes will meet the demand of the overall plan of land utility and economic development in Jiangxi Province in the coming decade.
To sum up, in the dissertation, a thorough research is made into the transmission mechanism and pathway of land policy; the operation conflicts are found out in land control and solution is figured out; the trend of land policy transmission is imitated and the effect of land control is predicted and it goes well with the current economic situations and meets the demand of macro-control. Therefore, the dissertation is significantly valuable both in theory and practice and it also displays the amazing vitality and broad application prospect of system dynamics approach in policy simulation.
引文
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