城市化对南京市土壤资源、人口承载力和生态足迹的影响
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摘要
随着我国经济的快速发展，城市化的进程加快，城市化对我国社会、经济、资源、环境、人口承载力、资源承载力都具有强烈的影响。这些问题的研究不仅是当今的学术研究热点，而且是社会可持续发展的需要，探索它们的发生发展规律和演化机制，提供可行性对策和宏观决策系统，使社会-经济-环境系统实现良性循环。利用多学科知识和依靠信息化等先进技术和手段研究这些问题，使所需的信息具有及时性、准确性和可靠性，使理论研究具有充实的基础。本文研究1985年到2002年的近20年间城市化对南京市的土壤资源的数量、质量及人口承载力和生态足迹的影响。
在第二次土壤普查资料和野外采样分析基础上建立土壤属性数据库，用主成分分析法和多元回归法对南京不同类型土壤进行生产潜力评价，建立南京土壤质量评价体系。利用RS、GIS和GPS技术，对南京市1985年和2000年遥感图像解译，得到南京市城市扩展图，把扩展图和南京市土壤图叠加；充分发挥GIS技术在管理空间、属性数据和空间分析与输出成果图等强大功能，计算出南京市由于城市扩展而使人口承载力减少的数量及其空间分布。
引用生态学原理，研究城市化对南京土壤多样性影响。利用GIS统计分析和遥感解译相结合，得到原始状态和1985年、2000年的各种土壤面积；计算三个时期的土壤多样性指数和丰富度指数，计算结果，土壤多样性和均匀性都变小。说明城市化使南京市土壤稳定性降低，使南京土壤资源质量降低。
根据1992-2002年《南京统计年鉴》，计算南京市近11年来的人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力和生态赤字的变化。计算结果，南京市的人均生态足迹和生态赤字都比较大，而且呈现变大趋势。说明南京市的可持续发展已超出生态承载力范围，城市化使这一情况更加严重。根据近5年南京市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力情况，用灰色模型和灰色分析方法分别预测了南京市2003、2004、2005年三年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力，从而得出这三年的生态赤字情况。
在分析的同时，对南京市的土壤资源的利用和保护，提高人口承载力，减小人均生态足迹和生态赤字，减轻城市发展对自然资源的压力提出具体的策略，为南京市自然资源管理、经济和社会生态可持续发展宏观政策的制定提供参考。
With the great speed of economic development, the acceleration progress of urbanization, the urbanization has great impact on the society, economy, environment and the carrying capacity of population of our society. The study of the problem is not only the hot subject, but also the need of the sustainable development of society, and the exploring of the laws of their development and evolution mechanism can provide feasible countermeasures and macro decision-making to make the system of society-economy-environment a benign circulation. Using the knowledge of different disciplines and depending on the advanced technology and measures can make the information needed fresh, accurate and reliable and make the theory a sound foundation. This paper studies the impact of Nanjing urbanization on the quality and quantity of soil resource, population carrying capacity and ecological footprint from 1985 to 2000, nearly 20 years.
The soil attribute data are built based on the second soil general investigation and samples got outside and analyzed inside. The assessment system of Nanjing soil quality is built by taking advantage of principal component analysis and multiple linear regression equation. With the help of RS, GIS, GPS, the interpreted maps of 1985 and 2000 remote sensing images overlay the digitized soil map to get the area of very kind of soil that the city covered during its progress of urbanization. The function of GIS are elaborated , such as managing spatial data and attribute data, spatial analyzing and outputting ultimate maps to get the reduced number of Nanjing population carrying capacity and its spatial distribution because of the expansion of city.
The ecological principles are quoted to study the impact of urbanization on the soil diversity of Nanjing city. With the help of the statistical function of GIS and remote sensing interpretation, the areas of very kind of soil of original state, 1985 and 2000 are got. Then the evenness indices and diversity indices of soil three times are calculated and the results show that the evenness indices and diversity indices are
becoming smaller. It means that the urbanization makes the stability and the quality of Nanjing soil decline.
Based on the Nanjing yearbook of 1992-2002,the average ecological footprint, average ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit are calculated, and the results show that the average ecological footprint and average ecological deficit are big, furthermore there is a trend of becoming bigger and bigger. The sustainable development of Nanjing city is beyond the ecological carrying capacity, and the urbanization has aggravated this situation. The grey model grey analysis are used to predict the average ecological footprint and average ecological carrying capacity of 2003,2004 and 2005 based on the situation of the ecological footprint of newly five years, getting the ecological deficit of the three years simultaneously.
At the same time, the paper gives countermeasures on the utilization and preservation of the soil resource, the average ecological footprint, the ecological deficit to alleviate the pressure of urbanization on the nature resource, gives the references for the management of nature resource and the decision-making of macro strategy on sustainable development of society, economy and ecology for Nanjing city.
在第二次土壤普查资料和野外采样分析基础上建立土壤属性数据库，用主成分分析法和多元回归法对南京不同类型土壤进行生产潜力评价，建立南京土壤质量评价体系。利用RS、GIS和GPS技术，对南京市1985年和2000年遥感图像解译，得到南京市城市扩展图，把扩展图和南京市土壤图叠加；充分发挥GIS技术在管理空间、属性数据和空间分析与输出成果图等强大功能，计算出南京市由于城市扩展而使人口承载力减少的数量及其空间分布。
引用生态学原理，研究城市化对南京土壤多样性影响。利用GIS统计分析和遥感解译相结合，得到原始状态和1985年、2000年的各种土壤面积；计算三个时期的土壤多样性指数和丰富度指数，计算结果，土壤多样性和均匀性都变小。说明城市化使南京市土壤稳定性降低，使南京土壤资源质量降低。
根据1992-2002年《南京统计年鉴》，计算南京市近11年来的人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力和生态赤字的变化。计算结果，南京市的人均生态足迹和生态赤字都比较大，而且呈现变大趋势。说明南京市的可持续发展已超出生态承载力范围，城市化使这一情况更加严重。根据近5年南京市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力情况，用灰色模型和灰色分析方法分别预测了南京市2003、2004、2005年三年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力，从而得出这三年的生态赤字情况。
在分析的同时，对南京市的土壤资源的利用和保护，提高人口承载力，减小人均生态足迹和生态赤字，减轻城市发展对自然资源的压力提出具体的策略，为南京市自然资源管理、经济和社会生态可持续发展宏观政策的制定提供参考。
With the great speed of economic development, the acceleration progress of urbanization, the urbanization has great impact on the society, economy, environment and the carrying capacity of population of our society. The study of the problem is not only the hot subject, but also the need of the sustainable development of society, and the exploring of the laws of their development and evolution mechanism can provide feasible countermeasures and macro decision-making to make the system of society-economy-environment a benign circulation. Using the knowledge of different disciplines and depending on the advanced technology and measures can make the information needed fresh, accurate and reliable and make the theory a sound foundation. This paper studies the impact of Nanjing urbanization on the quality and quantity of soil resource, population carrying capacity and ecological footprint from 1985 to 2000, nearly 20 years.
The soil attribute data are built based on the second soil general investigation and samples got outside and analyzed inside. The assessment system of Nanjing soil quality is built by taking advantage of principal component analysis and multiple linear regression equation. With the help of RS, GIS, GPS, the interpreted maps of 1985 and 2000 remote sensing images overlay the digitized soil map to get the area of very kind of soil that the city covered during its progress of urbanization. The function of GIS are elaborated , such as managing spatial data and attribute data, spatial analyzing and outputting ultimate maps to get the reduced number of Nanjing population carrying capacity and its spatial distribution because of the expansion of city.
The ecological principles are quoted to study the impact of urbanization on the soil diversity of Nanjing city. With the help of the statistical function of GIS and remote sensing interpretation, the areas of very kind of soil of original state, 1985 and 2000 are got. Then the evenness indices and diversity indices of soil three times are calculated and the results show that the evenness indices and diversity indices are
becoming smaller. It means that the urbanization makes the stability and the quality of Nanjing soil decline.
Based on the Nanjing yearbook of 1992-2002,the average ecological footprint, average ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit are calculated, and the results show that the average ecological footprint and average ecological deficit are big, furthermore there is a trend of becoming bigger and bigger. The sustainable development of Nanjing city is beyond the ecological carrying capacity, and the urbanization has aggravated this situation. The grey model grey analysis are used to predict the average ecological footprint and average ecological carrying capacity of 2003,2004 and 2005 based on the situation of the ecological footprint of newly five years, getting the ecological deficit of the three years simultaneously.
At the same time, the paper gives countermeasures on the utilization and preservation of the soil resource, the average ecological footprint, the ecological deficit to alleviate the pressure of urbanization on the nature resource, gives the references for the management of nature resource and the decision-making of macro strategy on sustainable development of society, economy and ecology for Nanjing city.
引文
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