模糊神经网络模型及其在水土资源中的应用
详细信息    本馆镜像全文|  推荐本文 |  |   获取CNKI官网全文
摘要
水土资源领域中的时间序列总是受天文、地理、人为活动等众多因素的影响,因而存在高维、非线性、实测数据信息不完整等特征,但同时也具有多年变化的周期性和趋势性。常规的线性模型很难解决这些问题,因此,为解决水土资源中的复杂问题,本文建立了几种模糊神经网络模型,还通过MATLAB7.0软件进行编程,建立数学模型,并应用于实践中,结果都取得了良好的效果。
     本文取得了以下三方面的成果:
     1、构建了三江平原别拉洪河站多年降雨量预测和三江平原富锦市永富乡耕作土壤评价的模糊BP网络模型。
     (1)三江平原降雨量的多少不但直接影响当地水资源的开发和利用,而且与干旱、洪涝等自然灾害的发生、发展及其强度密切相关,因此,准确地预测降水量,既可为三江平原制定水资源开发利用策略提供科学依据,又可为防灾、抗灾、救灾提供有效的指导。
     (2)土壤质量的变化直接影响着粮食的增产。三江平原大面积开荒后,随着开垦年限的增长,土壤质量一股都呈现下降趋势,所以三江平原土壤的下降应当引起有关部门的高度重视。
     2、建立了三江平原创业农场的地下水预测的自适应模糊神经网络模型。
     三江平原地下水位的下降主要是因为以井灌水稻为主的农业仍将是该地区的主导产业,单纯追求粮食产量,盲目无序地开发利用地下水所造成的。如果仍按目前的发展模式,井灌水稻面积仍逐年加大,地下水资源开采量仍会增加,势必造成地下水供需动态平衡被进一步破坏,降雨及周围河水的侧向渗漏来不及补给,导致该地区地下水水位下降。因此,提醒该地区有关部门采取有效措施,如对机井进行合理布局、充分利用好地表水资源、采用新的节水灌溉措施等,以控制地下水资源的开采量,同时也应适当缩减井灌水稻的种植面积,退耕还林,使地下水动态平衡得以逐渐恢复,实现水资源的可持续利用。
     3、建立基于减法聚类的自适应模糊神经网络的三江平原富锦市农业水资源利用状况评价模型。
     三江平原农业水资源的供需矛盾日益加剧,从对三江平原富锦市2000年农业水资源供需状况看,富锦市水资源利用不合理,所以相关管理部门要大力采取节水措施,加强水资源管理,做到科学用水,计划用水,要根据本地的实际情况加强立法,制定切实有效的水法。从未来发展看,由于松花江水系水量的逐年减少,三江平原灌区的用水危机极大,必须狠抓节水和水资源管理尤,其是农作物布局结构的调整,使有限的水资源合理分配和利用以达到水资源永续利用的目的。
     基于以上几种的模型的建立,本论文实现了理论与实践的有机结合。同时本文将所建立的模型用于水土资源的多元复杂性、非线性研究,取得满意结果,为解决当前某些实际问题提供新技术,为水土资源系统研究提供了新思路。
Time series of water and soil resources is always effected by the astronomy, the geography and the artificial activity,so there are characteristics such as high dimensional ,nonlinear and measured data with incomplete information and so on,but there is periodicity and trendy simultaneously of multi-annual variation. It is very difficult to solve these problems by the conventional linear model, therefore, to solve the complex problems in the water and soil resources, several kinds of fuzzy neural network model (FNN)is established in this paper and carried on the programming through the MATLAB7.0 software, established the mathematical model, and used in the practice, the results are good.
     The following results of three aspects are made in this paper:
     1.Fuzzy BP network model is established which is used in the multi-annual rainfall forecast of Bielahong River and cultivated soil appraisal of Yongfu town Fujin city in Sanjiang Plain.
     (1) The local water resources development and use is effected by the rainfall of Sanjiang Plain, and the drought and flood and other natural disaster's occurrence, the development and the intensity is also closely related to the rainfall of Sanjiang Plain.So, accurate rainfall forecasts is the scientific basis of water resources development of Sanjiang Plain,and the effective instruction is provided for the disaster prevention, resist natural calamities and the disaster relief.
     (2) The grain production increase is effected by soil quality change. The soil quality is growing worse, after Sanjiang Plain was opened up with big area, therefore the deterioration soil quality of Sanjiang Plain must be taken seriously by the related government.
     2. Establishment the model of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS) of prediction groundwater in the Chuang Ye farm in San Jiang plain.
     The reason the level of groundwater in San Jiang plain is that well irrigation rice is the leading industry in this area, simply the pursuit of food production, blind and disorder in development and utilization of the groundwater. If the current mode of development will continue, the area of well irrigation rice will increase year by year, the exploitation of groundwater resources will continue to increase, thus the dynamic balance of groundwater supply and demand is bound to be further damaged, for the lateral leakage of rainfall and rivers around there was no time to recharge the groundwater, and cause the decline in the level of groundwater. Therefore, remind the relevant department to take effective measures, such as distribute wells in a rational way, make full use of surface water resources, and introduce the new water-saving irrigation measures and so on, to control the exploitation of groundwater resources, at the same time the plant area of well-irrigation rice should also be appropriately reduced, and returning farmland to forest, so the dynamic balance of groundwater can gradually restore, finally achieve sustainable use of water resources.
     3. Based on the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, the agricultural utilization of water resources evaluation model in Sanjiang Plain Fujin city was established.
     The conflict between supply and demand of water resources in agriculture is growing in Sanjiang Plain. From agricultural water supply and demand situation in Sanjiang Plain Fujin city in 2000 to see, the use of water resources is irrational, so the relevant administrative departments should vigorously adopt water-saving measures to strengthen the management of water resources, to use water science and planned, according to the local conditions to strengthen legislation, speeding up the development of effective water law. From future development, because of the progressive decline of the Songhua River water, the Sanjiang Plain Irrigation District water crisis is great. We must pay close attention to water-saving and water resources management, in particular the restructuring of the distribution of crops to ensure that the limited rational allocation and use of water resources to meet the purpose of sustainable use of water resources. Based on the above several model, in the paper, the theory and practice are organically combined. At the same time, this will be the model for the multiple complex, nonlinear study on soil and water resources and obtain satisfactory results, in order to solve some practical problems currently provide new technologies for soil and water resources system provides a new idea.
引文
蔡甲冰,刘钰,雷廷武,等.2003.应用自适应模糊推理系统(ANFIS)的ET_0的预测.农业工程学报,20(4):13-16..
    曹安照,田丽.2005.自适应模糊神经网络在工业用水量预测中的应用.安徽工程科技学院学报,20(3):1-3.
    长江流域规划办公室.1979.中长期水文气象预报文集.北京:水利电力出版社.
    陈红中.2006.偏最小二乘回归法建立地下水量模拟预测模型.水利科技,3:30-31.
    陈守煜.郭瑜.2005.模糊可变集合及其在防洪工程体系综合风险评价中的应用.水利水电科技进展,25(6):4-8.
    陈守煜,胡吉敏.2006.可变模糊评价法及在水资源承载能力评价中的应用.水利学报,37(3):364-371.
    陈守煜,李亚伟.2005.基于模糊人工神经网络识别的水质评价模型.水科学进展,16(1):88-91.
    程冰.2005.模糊神经网络研究.广东工业大学.
    达飞鹏,宋文忠.2000.基于输入输出模型的模糊神经网络滑模控制.自动化学报,26(1):136-139.
    佟守正,吕宪国,杨青,等.2005.三江平原湿地研究发展与展望.资源科学,27(6):180-187.
    董海峰,吴启勋.2006.自适应模糊神经网络预测金属-HEDTA配合物稳定常数的研究.计算机与应用化学,23(9):909-912.
    高峰,雷声隆,庞鸿宾.2003.节水灌溉工程模糊神经网络综合评价模型研究.农业工程学报,19(4):84-87.
    高文华,张志敏,朱建群.2006.基于模糊BP神经网络的深基坑支护方案优选.中国安全科学学报,16(7):4-8.
    高艳霞,李禹生.2006.基于粒子群优化算法的BP神经网络在图像识别中的应用.武汉工业学院学报,25(4):35-38.
    范迎南.2005.模糊神经网络在建筑工程投标报价中的应用.大连理工大学.
    方浩,李蓓,石娜,等.2003.基于模糊神经网络的区域需水预测计算模型.西北水资源与水工程,14(4):1-3.
    方红,郑文瑞.2004.径流预报的模糊神经网络方法.吉林大学学报(地球科学版),34:80-82.
    付强.2006.数据处理方法及其农业应用.北京:科学出版社.
    付强,刘建禹,王立坤.2002.基于人工神经网络的井灌水稻区地下水位预测.东北农业大学学报,33(2):152-159.
    付强,门宝辉,王志良,等.2003.非平稳时序模型在三江平原井灌水稻区地下水动态变化中的应用.系统工程理论与实践,1:132-138.
    付强,宋艳芬,肖建民等.2002.基于人工神经网络模型的井灌水稻需水量预测.东北水利水电.20(214):38-42.
    付强,王立坤,王兆菌.2002.井灌水稻需水量预测的人工神经网络模型研究.灌溉排水,21(1):29-32.
    付强,王志良,梁川.2002.基于RAGA的PPC模型在土壤质量变化评价中的应用研究.水土保持学报,16(5):108-112.
    冯平江,葛临东.2003.基于自适应模糊C均值算法信号调制的识别.通信技术,12:29-32.
    冯艳,付强,李国良,等.2007.水稻需水量预测的小波BP网络模型.农业工程学报,23(4):66-69.
    冯志鹏,杜金莲,宋希庚.2003.粗糙集与神经网络集成在故障诊断中应用研究.大连理工大学学报,43(1):70-73.
    韩敏,范迎南,孙燕楠.2005.改进的模糊神经网络应用于投标报价.系统工程理论方法应用,14(5):443-448.
    郝庆菊,王起超,王跃思.2004.三江平原典型湿地土壤中硫的分布特征.土壤通报,35(3):331-335.
    何勇,鲍一丹.2001.基于神经网络的发动机故障多媒体诊断专家系统.内燃机学报,19(3):245-248.
    洪露,穆志纯.2006.免疫遗传算法在BP神经网络中的应用.北京科技大学学报,28(10):997-1000.
    侯伟,张树文,卜坤,等.2005.三江平原浓江、别拉洪河地区湿地退缩过程及其成因.地理研究,24(4):507-513.
    胡和平,曹永强,侯召成.2005.短期降雨预报精度的模糊风险评价方法研究.哈尔滨工业大学学报,37(5):577-580.
    胡焱弟,赵玉杰,白志鹏,等.2006.土壤环境质量评价的径向基函数神经网络的模型设计与应用.农业环境科学学报,25(增刊):5-12.
    黎湘,庄钊文,郭桂蓉.1997.模糊自组织神经网络及其在信息融合目标识别中的应用.国防科技大学学报,19(3):12-14.
    李爱玲,孔金生,沈宪章.2005.降水量的自适应神经网络模糊推理预报.电脑开发与应用,18(2):33-36.
    李东风.2003.模糊神经网络在交流伺服系统中的应用研究.南京理工大学.
    李国良,付强,冯艳,等.2007.基于混沌的三江平原月降水时间序列分析.数学的实践与认识,6(37):76-81.
    吕海波,赵艳林,孔令伟,等.2006.自适应模糊神经网络在膨胀土胀缩等级分类中的应用.岩土力学,27(6):908-912.
    李旭.2004.圆弧滑动边坡稳定性分析神经网络方法和自适应神经模糊推理方法的比较研究.南华大学.
    李晓东,曾光明,黄国和.2006.城市污水量短时预测的混沌神经网络模型.环境科学学报,26(3):416-419.
    林亚萍,金继红.2006.模拟退火-BP神经网络法测定无机铬的形态.分析科学学报,22(1):62-64.
    刘炳春.2005.基于模糊神经网络的故障诊断方法与应用研究.河北工业大学.
    刘进涛.2006.模糊神经网络在水质评价中的应用.首都师范大学.
    刘梦云,安韶山,常庆瑞,等.2005.宁南山区不同土地利用方式土壤质量评价方法研究.水土保持研究,12(3):41-43.
    刘念聪.2004.模糊神经网络控制技术在粉末冶金电炉控制系统中的应用研究.成都理工大学.
    刘普寅.2002.一种新的模糊神经网络及其逼近性能.中国科学,32(1):76-86.
    刘树博.2006.直流无刷电动机模糊神经网络控制系统的研究.兰州理工大学.
    刘树文,王庆伟,何东健,等.2006.基于模糊神经网络的葡萄病害诊断系统研究.农业工程学报.22(9):144-147.
    潘峰,梁川,王志良,等.2003.模糊物元模型在区域水资源可持续利用综合评价中的应用.水科学进展,14(3):271-275.
    潘俊,骆阳,唐英杰,等.2004.基于模糊动态AHP的水资源优化调配研究.水资源保护,2:15-18.
    齐爱琴.2005.基于模糊神经网络的刀具数据库系统的研究与开发.哈尔滨理工大学.
    尚正祥.2006.自适应神经模糊推理方法用于边坡稳定性分析的研究.西安建筑科技大学.
    孙发东.2005.基于模糊神经网络的自适应控制研究.西安理工大学.
    孙增折.1997.智能控制理论与技术[M].北京:清华大学出版社.
    汤皓,陈国兴.2006.基于GIS和BP神经网络耦合模型的建筑物震害预测.西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),38(4):523-527.
    田民乐,刘少民.1998.一种新型的模糊神经网络及其应用.模糊系统与数学,12(4):56-61.
    王德次,陈大雕.1997.用模糊综合评判法选择最优节水灌溉方法.中国农村水利水,12:21-24.
    王刚,张志禹.2006.粗糙集结合BP神经网络的数据融合方法研究.西安理工大学学报,22(3):311-314.
    王国利,陈守煜,李成林.1997.模糊模式识别模型在碧流河水库水质评价中的应用.大连理工大学学报,37(6):699-703.
    王粉花,孙一康,王新平.2004.基于免疫算法的模糊神经网络在板厚板形控制中的应用.信息与控制,33(4):504-507.
    王海霞.2002.模糊神经网络在水质评价中的应用.重庆大学.
    王玲玲,申东日,陈义俊,等.2006.基于粗糙集理论的模糊神经网络建模方法.桂林电子科技大学学报,26(5):366-369.
    王培良.2005.自适应模糊神经网络及其在旋转位置伺服系统中的应用.浙江大学.
    王宪全,陈李刚.2006.基于遗传算法和BP神经网络的信用风险测量模型.哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),8(5):87-92.
    王晓东,柳再生.2003.模糊神经网络系统在黄河防洪决策中的应用.华北水利水电学院学报,24(2):65-66.
    王听.模糊神经网络在机械设计中的应用.西北工业大学.
    王志良,邱林,梁川,等.2001.作物需水量与气温关系的模糊回归分析.华北水利水电学院学报,22(4):4-6.
    魏德宾,邹开其.2001.用神经网络方法对高速公路交通流控制模型中的参数进行辨识.大连大学学报,22(4):21-25.
    魏文秋,孙春鹏.1996.模糊神经网络水质评价模型.武汉水利电力大学学报,29(4):21-25.
    吴利斌,尚士友,云塔娜,等.2002,湖泊富营养化综合评价模糊神经网络专家系统的研究.内蒙古农业大学学报,23(3):80-84.
    吴晓莉,林哲辉,李军,等.2002.MATLAB辅助模糊系统设计.西安:西安电子科技大学出版社.
    谢季坚,刘承平.2000.模糊数学方法应用.武汉:华中科技大学出版社.
    邢美凤,冯斌.2005.基于模糊神经网络的核桃病虫害诊断专家系统的设计.雁北师范学院学报,21(2):28-30.
    徐海量,陈亚宁.2000.洪水灾害等级划分的模糊聚类分析.干旱区地理,23(4):350-352.
    杨道辉,马光文,刘起方等.2006.基于粒子群优化算法的BP网络模型在径流预测中的应用.水利发电学报,25(2):65-68.
    杨海东,胡月明,邓飞其.2005.基于DNA编码的人工免疫模型在土壤质量评价中的应用.农业工程学报,21(6):40-44.
    杨吉华.1993.水土保持原理与综合治理[M].山东:山东科学技术出版社.
    杨建强,罗先香.2001.地下水动态预测的径向基函数法.水文,4(21):1-4.
    杨昆,欧阳光耀.2006.燃油系统模糊神经网络故障诊断专家系统研究.内燃机学报,(2):25-27.
    杨明祥.2005.基于模糊神经网络的数据挖掘模型研究.大连海事大学.
    易继凯,候媛彬.2002.智能控制技术.北京:北京工业大学出版社.
    于雪峰,陈守煜.2005.模糊聚类迭代模型在洪水灾害度划分中应用.大连理工大学学报,45(1):128-131.
    张兵,袁寿其,成立.2004.作物需水量自适应神经网络模糊系统的设计研究.中国农村水利水电,8:1-3.
    张春美.2005.基于粗糙集的自适应神经模糊推理系统的研究和应用.太原理工大学.
    张国平,阮怀宁.2007.ANFIS模型在围岩稳定性分类中的应用.黄金,2(28):27-30.
    张海亮,何东健,吴建华.2005.用模糊神经网络提高洪峰预报精度的研究.中国农学通报,21(9):397-399.
    张健.2002.模糊神经网络模型算法研究与应用.大庆石油学院.
    赵小勇,付强,刑贞相.2007.投影寻踪等级评价模型在土壤质量变化综合评价中的应用.土壤学报,44(1):164-168.
    赵新宇,费良军,程东娟.2006.应用LM算法的神经网络模型研究灌区退水问题.农业工程学报,22(8):250-252.
    赵玉庆.2002.模糊神经网络及遗传算法在实时洪水预报中的应用研究.大连理工大学.
    郑文瑞,张国良,高彦伟.1999.地下水位预测的模糊推理.吉林地质,18(3):75-78.
    宗群童,童玲,牙淑红,等.2003.基于遗传算法模糊神经网络的电梯群控调度.天津大学学报,36(5):585-589.
    朱长军,都振纯,周继红,等.2005.组合灰色神经网络法在地下水动态预测中应用.辽宁工程技术大学学报,24(增刊):260-262.
    朱承山,潘英杰.2000.欧阳海水库径流量预报的模糊神经网络方法.水电能源科学,18(3):16-18.
    朱春江,唐德善.2006.基于灰色神经网络和证据理论预测地下水位的研究.安徽农业科学,34(5):831-832.
    http://www.jgchina.com/ednns/ednns.htm,EDNNS-企业信息化,第二篇,数字神经网络系统.
    Berit Mattson,Christel Cederbeng,Lisa Blix.2000.Agricultu rallal and use in life cycle assessnebt(LCA):case studies of three vegetable oil crops.Jou rnal of Cleaner P roduction,8:283-292.
    GOLOB R.1998.Neural-network-based water inflow forecasting.Control Engineering Practice,6:593-600.
    Hsu,Kou-Lin,et al.1995.artificial neural networks modeling of the rain-runoffprocess,Water Resources Research,31(10):2517-2530.
    Hussaim l,olson K R,Wander M M,Karlen D L.1999.Adaptation of soil quality indices and appliciation to thtee tillage systems in sou them llinoid.Soil and Tillage Research,50,237-249.
    Jimenez.Luis.A qualitative model of the indebtedness ofr the Spsnish autonomous regions.ICEIS 2004-Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems,2004:275-280.
    J.M.Keller,R.R.Yager,Tahani.H.Neural Network Implementation of Fuzzy Logic.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1992,45:1-12.
    Kosko B.Fuzzy associative memories.In:Kondel A(ed).Fuzzy Expert System Reading.MA:Addison Weley,1987.Special Issue on Fuzzy logic and Neural Networks.IEEE Transcations on Neural networks,1992,3(5).
    Kwansoo Kim,Bmdford L Barham,lan.2001.Coxhead Measurindg soil qualitu dynamicg.A role for econom ists,25,13-26.
    R.R.Yager.Implementing Fuzzy Logic Controller Using a Neural Network Framework.Fuzzy Set and Systems,1992,48:53-64.
    S.C.Lee,E.T.Lee.Fuzzy Sets and Neural Network.Cybernetics,1974,4:83-103.
    Seref Naci Engin,Janset Kuvulmaz,Vasfi Emre Omurlu.2004.Modeling of a coupled industrial Tank System with ANFIS.Lecture Notes in ComputerScience,2972:804-812.
    S.R Zhang,et al.1993.Prediction of daily water demands by neural networks,In:international conference on stochastic and statistical methods in Hydrology and Environment engineering,Ontario,Canada,217-227.
    Takagi.Fusion technology of fuzzy theory and neural networks survey and future direction[A].Pro.Int.Conf.On Fuzzy ogic and Neural Networks1990,3-26.
    Pedrycz W.A.Rueda.A.1995.Distributed fuzzy system modeling.IEEE Trans on SMC,25(5):769-780.
    Pedrycz W.A F Rocha.1994.Logic-based neurons:Exten-sions, uncertainty representation and developm ent of fuzzy controllers.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,66:251-266.
    VASSOLO R,KINZELBACH W,SCHAFER W.1998.Determination of a well head protection zone by stochastic inverse modeling.Journal of Hydrlogy,206:268-280.
    Zhu M. L, et al. 1993. Application of neural networks of runoff prediction, in: international conference on stochastic and statistical methods in Hydrology and Environment engineering, Ontario, Canada, 205-216.

© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号

地址:北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编:100083

电话:办公室:(+86 10)66554848;文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新:66554700