基于多指标体系的呼和浩特平原地下水可持续性研究
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摘要
呼和浩特市是内蒙古自治区的经济文化、政治中心,近年来社会经济发展迅猛,与此同时,该地区水资源问题越来越严重,呼和浩特平原已经出现地下水降落漏斗、浅层含水层局部疏干等严重环境地质问题,城市的可持续发展面临地下水资源的严峻挑战。
本文以可持续性评?为切入点,在DPSIR (驱动—压力—状态—影响—响应)指标理论框架下,从自然条件、社会经济发展、环境地质制约三个方面考虑指标的构建,通过理论分析、数值规律统计等方法建立了面向呼和浩特地区地下水可持续性评价的指标体系。联合运用层次分析法、信息熵法等确定指标的评价权重,选择指标综合分析方法,对呼和浩特平原地下水现状、不同开采方案条件下的地下水可持续水平、趋势做了研究。
通过评价研究,取得如下进展：
(1)引入了地下水可持续性评价指标体系,并应用于呼和浩特平原区的地下水资源可持续利用评价中。根据呼和浩特存在的地下水资源问题,构建了DPSIR框架下的适用于呼和浩特实际情况的评价指标体系,利用理论分析和数理统计方法,筛选了适用于呼和浩特平原的评价指标。
(2)创建了联合层次分析法和信息熵法的指标权重计算方法。地下水可持续性评价指标的权重是评价过程的核心,是决定评价结果的最主要因素,通过联合层次分析法和信息熵方法确定权重的方法,相比单纯一种方法要更为合理,减少了人为判定权重的误差和数据量化脱离实际的矛盾。
(3)解析了呼和浩特平原现状条件下可持续性水平的空间分布规律及原因。评价结果显示,呼和浩特平原地下水可持续性程度空间分布差异很大,城区、西部经济开发区是可持续水平最差的地区：而山前补给区、大黑河流中上游地区,地下水的可持续性水平最好。从环境地质问题的空间分布趋势分析,东南部地区含水层厚度大,地面沉降易发性大,超采导致的问题更为严重：该地区又处于大小黑河的下游,易于受上游的污染,水质相对更差,资源可利用水平更低,因此该地区是区域发展中资源环境问题突出的地区。
(4)结合研究区十二五规划和地下水开发利用方案,预测分析了区内地下水可持续性变化趋势和规律。针对研究区超采的现实问题和开采方案,分析了2015年2020年两个时期的评价结果,显示一半以上地区地下水的可持续利用趋势有良性趋势,方案中的面状压缩开采量措施相对集中压缩开采量措施达到的效果更好：从趋势分析结果看,双层含水层结构区可持续性水平比单层结构区差,这为地区的地下水资源规划提供了方向。(5)丰富了地下水资源评价结果的区划方法,使不同研究区地下水可持续性的横向对比更为合理。在可持续评价的基础上,创新利用评价结果数据的累计分布函数,对现状年地下水可持续性评价结果做了区划,并针对每种区划提出了合理化的开采利用建议。
In recent years, with the rapid social and economic development, an increasingly serious problem of water resources occurred in Hohhot, the capital city of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. In Hohhot plain, intensive abstractions of groundwater lead to depletion of shallow aquifer and a water depression cone in confined aquifer. Such serious environmental geological problems presented severe challenges to groundwater resources on urban sustainable development.
This thesis selected sustainability assessment as the starting point by the DPSIR (Driver Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework of indicators assessment theory, the indicators system of groundwater sustainable evaluation was built through theoretical analysis, numerical laws of statistics and other methods in Hohhot. Considering the respects of natural conditions, socio-economic development and environmental and geological constraints for indicator frame, indicator evaluation weight was determined by utilizing analytic hierarchy process and information entropy method. Then through indicators integrated analysis methods, it assessed groundwater state and groundwater sustainable levels and trend under different mining plans.
Through evaluation and analysis, it obtained following conclusions:
(1) It introduced the indicators system of sustainability evaluation of groundwater, and applied for assessment of groundwater resources sustainable utilization in Hohhot plain. According to the existing problems of groundwater resources in Hohhot, the system was established under the DPSIR framework to address the practical problems and by analysis and mathematical statistics methods, these indicators were filtrated for evaluation.
(2) It created a method to calculate indicators weight by jointing analytic hierarchy process and information entropy method. The weight of groundwater sustainability assessment indicators was the core process and mostly determined the evaluation results. Compared with single method, it was a more reasonable method to determine weight, reducing man-made error and quantization error from actual condition.
(3) It analyzed the spatial distribution of groundwater sustainable level and its reason under present state in Hohhot plain. Assessment results showed that, there was a big difference on spatial distribution of groundwater sustainability. In urban area and western economic development zone, the level was the worst, and the contrary in the Piedmont recharge area, Big Black River upstream region. From the spatial distribution trend analysis of environmental geological problems, overexploitation led to more severe problem in south-east because of big aquifer thickness and easy surface subsidence; located at Heihe downstream, water quality was relatively poor due to easily be polluted by upstream, and resource utilization level was lower, so this area is prominent in resources and environment problems during regional development.
(4) Groundwater sustainable variety and rule were predicted and analyzed, combining the "twelfth-five" plan and groundwater utilization scheme of the study area.. In view of the overdraft problem and mining scheme, it analyzed the assessment results of2015and2020two periods, which demonstrated the trend was benign in more than half area of the research region. It could achieve better effect by scheme of planar compression comparing to by scheme of concentration compression. From the trend analysis result, the sustainable level was poor in double aquifer structure zone than in monolayer structure area, providing direction for groundwater resources planning.
(5) Zoning method of groundwater resources sustainability assessment was developed, and made it more reasonable in lateral correlation of groundwater sustainability in different study region. Based on sustainability assessment, by cumulative distribution function of data from evaluation, the division was made depending on groundwater sustainable assessment result in current year, and reasonable exploitation and utilization suggestions were proposed about each division.
本文以可持续性评?为切入点,在DPSIR (驱动—压力—状态—影响—响应)指标理论框架下,从自然条件、社会经济发展、环境地质制约三个方面考虑指标的构建,通过理论分析、数值规律统计等方法建立了面向呼和浩特地区地下水可持续性评价的指标体系。联合运用层次分析法、信息熵法等确定指标的评价权重,选择指标综合分析方法,对呼和浩特平原地下水现状、不同开采方案条件下的地下水可持续水平、趋势做了研究。
通过评价研究,取得如下进展：
(1)引入了地下水可持续性评价指标体系,并应用于呼和浩特平原区的地下水资源可持续利用评价中。根据呼和浩特存在的地下水资源问题,构建了DPSIR框架下的适用于呼和浩特实际情况的评价指标体系,利用理论分析和数理统计方法,筛选了适用于呼和浩特平原的评价指标。
(2)创建了联合层次分析法和信息熵法的指标权重计算方法。地下水可持续性评价指标的权重是评价过程的核心,是决定评价结果的最主要因素,通过联合层次分析法和信息熵方法确定权重的方法,相比单纯一种方法要更为合理,减少了人为判定权重的误差和数据量化脱离实际的矛盾。
(3)解析了呼和浩特平原现状条件下可持续性水平的空间分布规律及原因。评价结果显示,呼和浩特平原地下水可持续性程度空间分布差异很大,城区、西部经济开发区是可持续水平最差的地区：而山前补给区、大黑河流中上游地区,地下水的可持续性水平最好。从环境地质问题的空间分布趋势分析,东南部地区含水层厚度大,地面沉降易发性大,超采导致的问题更为严重：该地区又处于大小黑河的下游,易于受上游的污染,水质相对更差,资源可利用水平更低,因此该地区是区域发展中资源环境问题突出的地区。
(4)结合研究区十二五规划和地下水开发利用方案,预测分析了区内地下水可持续性变化趋势和规律。针对研究区超采的现实问题和开采方案,分析了2015年2020年两个时期的评价结果,显示一半以上地区地下水的可持续利用趋势有良性趋势,方案中的面状压缩开采量措施相对集中压缩开采量措施达到的效果更好：从趋势分析结果看,双层含水层结构区可持续性水平比单层结构区差,这为地区的地下水资源规划提供了方向。(5)丰富了地下水资源评价结果的区划方法,使不同研究区地下水可持续性的横向对比更为合理。在可持续评价的基础上,创新利用评价结果数据的累计分布函数,对现状年地下水可持续性评价结果做了区划,并针对每种区划提出了合理化的开采利用建议。
In recent years, with the rapid social and economic development, an increasingly serious problem of water resources occurred in Hohhot, the capital city of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. In Hohhot plain, intensive abstractions of groundwater lead to depletion of shallow aquifer and a water depression cone in confined aquifer. Such serious environmental geological problems presented severe challenges to groundwater resources on urban sustainable development.
This thesis selected sustainability assessment as the starting point by the DPSIR (Driver Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework of indicators assessment theory, the indicators system of groundwater sustainable evaluation was built through theoretical analysis, numerical laws of statistics and other methods in Hohhot. Considering the respects of natural conditions, socio-economic development and environmental and geological constraints for indicator frame, indicator evaluation weight was determined by utilizing analytic hierarchy process and information entropy method. Then through indicators integrated analysis methods, it assessed groundwater state and groundwater sustainable levels and trend under different mining plans.
Through evaluation and analysis, it obtained following conclusions:
(1) It introduced the indicators system of sustainability evaluation of groundwater, and applied for assessment of groundwater resources sustainable utilization in Hohhot plain. According to the existing problems of groundwater resources in Hohhot, the system was established under the DPSIR framework to address the practical problems and by analysis and mathematical statistics methods, these indicators were filtrated for evaluation.
(2) It created a method to calculate indicators weight by jointing analytic hierarchy process and information entropy method. The weight of groundwater sustainability assessment indicators was the core process and mostly determined the evaluation results. Compared with single method, it was a more reasonable method to determine weight, reducing man-made error and quantization error from actual condition.
(3) It analyzed the spatial distribution of groundwater sustainable level and its reason under present state in Hohhot plain. Assessment results showed that, there was a big difference on spatial distribution of groundwater sustainability. In urban area and western economic development zone, the level was the worst, and the contrary in the Piedmont recharge area, Big Black River upstream region. From the spatial distribution trend analysis of environmental geological problems, overexploitation led to more severe problem in south-east because of big aquifer thickness and easy surface subsidence; located at Heihe downstream, water quality was relatively poor due to easily be polluted by upstream, and resource utilization level was lower, so this area is prominent in resources and environment problems during regional development.
(4) Groundwater sustainable variety and rule were predicted and analyzed, combining the "twelfth-five" plan and groundwater utilization scheme of the study area.. In view of the overdraft problem and mining scheme, it analyzed the assessment results of2015and2020two periods, which demonstrated the trend was benign in more than half area of the research region. It could achieve better effect by scheme of planar compression comparing to by scheme of concentration compression. From the trend analysis result, the sustainable level was poor in double aquifer structure zone than in monolayer structure area, providing direction for groundwater resources planning.
(5) Zoning method of groundwater resources sustainability assessment was developed, and made it more reasonable in lateral correlation of groundwater sustainability in different study region. Based on sustainability assessment, by cumulative distribution function of data from evaluation, the division was made depending on groundwater sustainable assessment result in current year, and reasonable exploitation and utilization suggestions were proposed about each division.
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