经济增长质量：一种理论解释及中国的实证分析
|
摘要
在经济增长理论发展的200多年历史里,一直把经济增长的数量问题当作是经济增长的全部内容,所有理论探讨的中心问题都是如何实现经济数量上的扩张,但是却很少讨论经济增长质量的提高。中国经济改革与经济转型30年以来,经济增长的数量扩张迅速,但与此同时,经济增长质量问题也渐渐凸显出来。本文采用国际规范的逻辑实证主义分析方法,以经济转型为背景,在对经济增长质量进行清晰界定与准确度量的基础上,构建一个系统的分析框架对中国的经济增长质量问题进行理论解释与实证分析。
经济增长质量是指经济增长内在的性质与规律,具体包括经济增长的结构、经济增长的稳定性、福利变化与成果分配以及资源利用和生态环境代价四个维度。本文从经济增长质量的外延与内涵出发构建出由28个基础指标构成的测度经济增长质量的指数,采用主成分分析法(PCA)确定各指标的权重,通过均值化方法对各指标数值进行无量纲化处理并以基础指标的协方差矩阵作为输入,来避免使用标准化方法和相关系数矩阵所造成的对不同指标相对离散程度的低估或夸大。对中国及各地区1978-2007年经济增长质量的测度结果表明,经济转型30年以来我国总体层面和区域层面的经济增长质量水平都获得了一定程度的提高,但是各地区之间的经济增长质量水平却存在很大差异。
当经济增长的结构趋向于均衡时,当经济增长的稳定性逐渐增强时,当经济增长带来居民整体福利水平上升或成果分配改善时,当资源利用效率不断提高和生态环境代价逐渐降低时,经济增长质量都将会得到提高。通过对1978-2007年中国的省际面板数据进行实证分析,发现模型的估计结果与理论研究的结论是一致的,中国经济转型期经济增长的结构、经济增长的稳定性、福利变化与成果分配以及资源利用和生态环境代价都与经济增长质量之间存在显著的正向关系。因此,在中国经济发展进入新阶段的背景下,在经济增长数量不断扩张的同时,还需要不断调整经济增长的结构,保持经济增长的稳定性,改善经济增长的福利水平和成果分配,改进经济增长的资源利用效率和生态环境代价,要实现经济增长的数量与质量的统一,追求中国经济发展的长期可持续性。
During the development of economic growth theory, most studies have put the quantity of growth as the full content of economic growth, but never consider the quality of economic growth. In the 30 years of China's economic reform, as quantity of economic growth increased rapidly, many problems of quality of economic growth have gradually come out. Based on the logical empiricism, this paper clearly defines quality of economic growth from its extension and intension, then measures it accurately, builds a unified framework of the quality of economic growth.
The quality of economic growth refers to the inherent nature and the law of economic growth, including the structure of economic growth, stability of economic growth, welfare distribution, and the cost of resources and the environments. Based on the extension and intension of quality of economic growth, this paper builds the index of quality of economic growth, which constitutes 28 basic indicators. Principal Component Analysis is used here to determine the weight of the target, Additionally, mean value treatment is also used to eliminate the index dimension and covariance matrix of basic indices acts as input variables, as a result ,we can avoid the deviation caused by standardized methods and the correlation coefficient matrix. Measuring results from our study shows that the quality of China's economic growth has been improved to a certain extent in overall level and regional level from 1978 to 2007, but it is very different among the provinces and municipalities.
Optimization in the structure of economic growth, enhance the stability of economic growth, improvement in welfare, improvement in efficiency of resource use and ecological environments will contribute to the quality of economic growth. By empirically analyzing Chinese provincial panel data from 1978 to 2007,we find the estimation results of our model is well consistent with the conclusions from theoretical study: the quality index variables of economic growth are significantly positive, furthermore, our results also find the economic growth structure in China's transition period, the economic growth stability, distributions of welfare change achievements, resource utilization and cost of the ecological environment have significantly positive relationships with the quality of economic growth. Though China's economic development has entered a new stage and the quantity of economic growth is in the ever-expanding period, it is still necessary to continuously adjust the structure of economic growth, maintain the stability of economic growth, improve welfare level of economic growth as well as its achievements distributions, and improve the efficiency of utilizing resources and reduce the costs of eco-environments. In short, our final target is to achieve simultaneous progress in the quantity and quality of economic growth, and keep a long-term sustainability of economic development.
经济增长质量是指经济增长内在的性质与规律,具体包括经济增长的结构、经济增长的稳定性、福利变化与成果分配以及资源利用和生态环境代价四个维度。本文从经济增长质量的外延与内涵出发构建出由28个基础指标构成的测度经济增长质量的指数,采用主成分分析法(PCA)确定各指标的权重,通过均值化方法对各指标数值进行无量纲化处理并以基础指标的协方差矩阵作为输入,来避免使用标准化方法和相关系数矩阵所造成的对不同指标相对离散程度的低估或夸大。对中国及各地区1978-2007年经济增长质量的测度结果表明,经济转型30年以来我国总体层面和区域层面的经济增长质量水平都获得了一定程度的提高,但是各地区之间的经济增长质量水平却存在很大差异。
当经济增长的结构趋向于均衡时,当经济增长的稳定性逐渐增强时,当经济增长带来居民整体福利水平上升或成果分配改善时,当资源利用效率不断提高和生态环境代价逐渐降低时,经济增长质量都将会得到提高。通过对1978-2007年中国的省际面板数据进行实证分析,发现模型的估计结果与理论研究的结论是一致的,中国经济转型期经济增长的结构、经济增长的稳定性、福利变化与成果分配以及资源利用和生态环境代价都与经济增长质量之间存在显著的正向关系。因此,在中国经济发展进入新阶段的背景下,在经济增长数量不断扩张的同时,还需要不断调整经济增长的结构,保持经济增长的稳定性,改善经济增长的福利水平和成果分配,改进经济增长的资源利用效率和生态环境代价,要实现经济增长的数量与质量的统一,追求中国经济发展的长期可持续性。
During the development of economic growth theory, most studies have put the quantity of growth as the full content of economic growth, but never consider the quality of economic growth. In the 30 years of China's economic reform, as quantity of economic growth increased rapidly, many problems of quality of economic growth have gradually come out. Based on the logical empiricism, this paper clearly defines quality of economic growth from its extension and intension, then measures it accurately, builds a unified framework of the quality of economic growth.
The quality of economic growth refers to the inherent nature and the law of economic growth, including the structure of economic growth, stability of economic growth, welfare distribution, and the cost of resources and the environments. Based on the extension and intension of quality of economic growth, this paper builds the index of quality of economic growth, which constitutes 28 basic indicators. Principal Component Analysis is used here to determine the weight of the target, Additionally, mean value treatment is also used to eliminate the index dimension and covariance matrix of basic indices acts as input variables, as a result ,we can avoid the deviation caused by standardized methods and the correlation coefficient matrix. Measuring results from our study shows that the quality of China's economic growth has been improved to a certain extent in overall level and regional level from 1978 to 2007, but it is very different among the provinces and municipalities.
Optimization in the structure of economic growth, enhance the stability of economic growth, improvement in welfare, improvement in efficiency of resource use and ecological environments will contribute to the quality of economic growth. By empirically analyzing Chinese provincial panel data from 1978 to 2007,we find the estimation results of our model is well consistent with the conclusions from theoretical study: the quality index variables of economic growth are significantly positive, furthermore, our results also find the economic growth structure in China's transition period, the economic growth stability, distributions of welfare change achievements, resource utilization and cost of the ecological environment have significantly positive relationships with the quality of economic growth. Though China's economic development has entered a new stage and the quantity of economic growth is in the ever-expanding period, it is still necessary to continuously adjust the structure of economic growth, maintain the stability of economic growth, improve welfare level of economic growth as well as its achievements distributions, and improve the efficiency of utilizing resources and reduce the costs of eco-environments. In short, our final target is to achieve simultaneous progress in the quantity and quality of economic growth, and keep a long-term sustainability of economic development.
引文
[1]B·D·卡马耶夫.经济增长的速度和质量[M].陈华山,左东官,何剑等.武汉:湖北人民出版社,1983:19-32
[2]王积业.关于提高经济增长质量的宏观思考[J].宏观经济研究,2000,1:11-17
[3]刘亚建.我国经济增长效率分析[J].思想战线,2002,28(4):30-33
[4]温诺·托马斯等.增长的质量[M].增长的质量翻译组.北京:中国财经出版社,2001:157-164
[5]Robert J.Barro,Quantity and Quality of Economic Growth[A].Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile,2002:1-39
[6]彭德芬.经济增长质量研究[M].武汉:华中师范大学出版社,2002:8-22
[7]刘树成.论又好又快发展[J].经济研究,2007,6:4-13
[8]沈坤荣.中国经济增长绩效分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,1998,1:28-33
[9]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国全要素生产率的估算:1979-2004[J].经济研究,2005,6:51-60
[10]刘亚军,倪树高.基于全要素生产率的浙江省经济增长质量分析[J].浙江社会科学,2006,6:48-53
[11]俞安军,韩士专,张顺超.利用C-D函数测算中国经济增长的质量及方式[J].统计与决策,2007,24:48-49
[12]郑玉歆.全要素生产率的再认识—用TFP分析经济增长质量存在的若干局限[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,9:3-11
[13]康梅.投资增长模式下经济增长因素分解与经济增长质量[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,2:153-160
[14]杨长友.测评经济增长质量的六大向度[J].福建论坛,2000,1:33-35
[15]李周为,钟文余.经济增长方式与增长质量测度评价指标体系研究[J].中国软科学,1999,6:37-42
[16]钟学义等.增长方式转变与增长质量提高[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001
[17]樊元,杨立勋.关于经济增长质量统计的若干理论问题[J].西北师大学报,2002,39(2):111-114
[18]李变花.经济增长质量指标体系的设置[J].理论新探,2004,1:25-27
[19]单晓娅,陈森良.经济增长质量综合评价指标体系设计[J].贵州财经学院学报,2001,6:39-41
[20]李岳平.经济增长质量评估体系及实证分析[J].江苏统计,2001,5:19-22
[21]肖红叶,李腊生.我国经济增长质量的实证分析[J].统计研究,1998,4:8-14
[22]单薇.基于熵的经济增长质量综合评价[J].数学的实践与认识,2003,33(10):49-54
[23]徐辉,杨志辉.密切值模型在经济增长质量综合评价计算中的应用[J].理论新探,2005,12:22-23
[24]赵英才,张纯洪,刘海英.转轨以来中国经济增长质量的综合评价研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006,46(3):27-35
[25]刘海英,张纯洪.中国经济增长质量提高和规模扩张的非一致性实证研究[J].经济科学,2006,2:13-22
[26]马建新,申世军.中国经济增长质量问题的初步研究[J].财经问题研究,2007,3:18-23
[27]李延军,金浩.经济增长质量与效益评价研究[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(2):73-76
[28]申世军,邬凯生.广东省山东省经济增长质量研究[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(3):64-68
[29]Holli B.Chenery.Patterns of Industrial Growth[J].American Economic Review,1960,50:624-654
[30]Denison,Edward F.Accounting for United States Economic Growth1929-1969[M].Brookings Institution,1974
[31]Kuznets,S.Economic Growth of Nations:Total Output and Production Structure [M].Harvard,Cambridge,Mass,1971
[32]夏明.转轨以来中国经济结构转变的实证分析[J].统计研究,2002,2:16-18
[33]高帆.中国各省区二元经济结构转化的同步性:一个实证研究——兼论地区经济结构转变与经济增长差距的关联性[J].管理世界,2007,9:27-36
[34]项俊波.中国经济结构失衡的测度与分析[J].管理世界,2008,9:1-11
[35]李京文,D·乔根森等.生产率与中美日经济增长研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1993
[36]周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海:上海三联书店、上海人民出版社, 1995
[37]郭克莎.中国:改革中的经济增长与结构变动[M].上海:上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1996
[38]邵宜航,刘雅南.二元经济的结构转变与增长分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,10:3-13
[39]吕铁,周叔莲.中国的产业结构升级与经济增长方式转变[J].管理世界,1999,1:113-125
[40]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002,5:14-21
[41]石磊,高帆.地区经济差距:一个基于经济结构转变的实证研究[J].管理世界,2006,5:35-44
[42]雷钦礼.中国经济结构的演化及其增长效益的测度分析[J].统计研究,2007,24(11):9-14
[43]李斌.投资、消费与中国经济的内生增长:古典角度的实证分析[J].管理世界,2004,9:13-23
[44]周华林.投资、消费协调发展与经济增长[J].经济前沿,2005,1:12-15
[45]贺铿.中国投资、消费比例与经济发展政策[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,5:3-10
[46]葛新元,王大辉,袁强,方福康.中国经济结构变化对经济增长的贡献的计量分析[J].北京师范大学学报,2000,36(1):43-48
[47]刘伟,李绍荣.所有制变化与经济增长和要素效率提升[J].经济研究,2001,1:3-9
[48]刘伟等.北京市经济结构分析[J].中国工业经济,2003,1:23-30
[49]赵农华.上海经济结构调整的实证分析:1990-2003[J].经济理论与经济管理,2004,7:65-69
[50]杨天宇,袁江.中国经济结构变迁影响经济增长的实证研究[J].探索,2005,5:71-74
[51]刘伟,李绍荣.转轨中的经济增长与经济结构[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2005
[52]谢健.经济结构的变动与区域经济的差异分析[J].中国工业经济,2003,11:78-84
[53]Black F.Business cycles and equilibrium[M].New York:Basil Blackwell,1987
[54]Kormendi.R,Meguire P.Macroeconomic determinants of growth:Cross-country evidence[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1985,16(4):141-163
[55]Grier K,and Tullock G.An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth 1951-1980[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,24(2):259-276
[56]Caporale T,McKiernan B.The relationship between output variability and growth:Evidence from post-war UK data[J].Scottish Journal of Political Economy,1996,43(2):175-184
[57]Ben S.Bernanke.Irreversibility,Uncertainty,and Cyclical lnvestment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1983,98(1):85-106
[58]Ramey G,V A Ramey.Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth[J].American Economic Review,1995,85(5):1138-1151
[59]Barro,R.J.Inflation and Growth[J].Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review,1996,78
[60]Forbes,Kristin J.A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(4):869-887
[61]Turnovsky,S.J.and P.Chattopadhyay.Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies:Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,2003,59(2):267-295
[62]刘树成.论中国经济增长与波动的新态势[J].中国社会科学,2000,1:114-122
[63]刘金全,范剑青.中国经济周期的非对称性和相关性研究[J].经济研究,2001,5:28-37
[64]刘金全,张海燕.经济周期态势与条件波动性的非对称性关联分析[J].管理世界,2003,9:18-26
[65]刘金全,付一婷,王勇.我国经济增长趋势与经济周期波动性之间的作用机制检验[J].管理世界,2005,4:5-11
[66]Alexander,R.J.Inflation and Economic Growth:Evidence from a Growth Equation[J].Applied Economics,1997,29
[67]Stanners,W.Inflation and Growth[J].Cambridge Journal of Economics,1996,20
[68]刘金全,谢卫东.中国经济增长与通货膨胀的动态相关性[J].世界经济,2003,6:48-57
[69]Murphy,K.,A.Shleifer,and R.Vishny,Income Distribution,Market Size and Industrialization[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1989,104,537-64
[70]Galor,Oded and Joseph Zeira.Income Distribution and Macroeconomics[J].Review of Economic Studies,1993,60:35-52
[71]Patridge,Mark D.Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Comment[J].American Economic Review,1997,87:1019-1032
[72]Barro,R.J.Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2000,5(1):5-32
[73]Panizza,U.Income Inequality and Economic Growth:Evidence from American data[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2002,7:25-41
[74]权衡,徐王争.收入分配差距的增长效应分析:转型期中国经验[J].管理世界,2002,5:47-54
[75]杨俊,张宗益,李晓羽.收入分配、人力资本与经济增长:来自中国的经验(1995-2003)[J].经济科学,2005,5:5-15
[76]陆铭,陈钊,万广华.因患寡,而患不均——中国的收入差距、投资、教育和增长的相互影响[J].经济研究,2005,12:4-14
[77]杨汝岱,朱诗娥.公平与效率不可兼得吗?—基于居民边际消费倾向的研究[J].经济研究,2007,12:46-58
[78]德内拉·梅多斯等.增长的极限——罗马俱乐部关于人类困境的报告[M].李宝恒.长春:吉林人民出版社,1997:19-56
[79]德内拉·梅多斯等.增长的极限[M].李涛,王智勇.北京:机械工业出版社,2006:121-162
[80]理查德·杜思韦特.增长的困惑[M].李斌,姜峰,宫庆彬.北京:中国社会科学出版社,2008:1-17
[81]梁言顺.低代价经济增长论[M].北京:人民出版社,2004
[82]焦必方.环保型经济增长模式:21世纪中国的必然选择[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001
[83]戴武堂.论经济增长质量及其改善[J].中国财经政法大学学报,2003,1:35-39
[84]李依凭.1978年-2003年我国农民实际收入增长率变动对经济增长质量影响的动 态分析[J].技术经济,2004,11
[85]洪英芳.新时期人力资源开发与提高经济增长质量和效益研究[J].人口学刊,2002,6:27-31
[86]刘海英,赵英才,张纯洪.人力资本“均化”与中国经济增长质量关系研究[J].管理世界,2004,11:15-21
[87]刘海英,张纯洪.非国有经济发展对中国经济增长质量影响机理研究—来自VEC 模型的新证据[J].经济学家,2007,6:63-69
[88]亚诺什·科尔奈.突进与和谐的增长[M].张晓光等.北京:经济科学出版社,1988:2
[89]王春雷,黄素心.基尼系数与样本信息含量[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,2:136-144
[90]程永宏.改革以来全国总体基尼系数的演变及其城乡分解[J].中国社会科学,2007,4:45-60
[91]王少平,欧阳志刚.中国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应[J].中国社会科学,2008,2:54-66
[92]Holz,C.The Quantity and Quality of Labor in China 1978-2000-2025[A].Working Paper,2005:1-81
[93]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004,10:35-43
[94]Galor,O.Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models[J].The Economic Journal,1996,106:1056-1069
[95]Baumol,W.J.Productivity Growth,Convergence and Welfare:What the Long-run Data Show[J],American Economic Review,1986,76,1072-1085
[96]Mankiw,N.G.,D.Romer and D.N.Weil.A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107:407-438
[97]Islam,N.Growth Empirics:A panel Data Approach[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110:1127-1170
[98]Bernard,Andrew,Steven N.Durlauf.Convergence in International Output[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,1995,10:97-108
[99]Quah,D.Twin Peaks:Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics[J].The Economic Journal,1996,106:1045-1055
[100]姚树洁,Chun Kwok Lei,冯根福.中国大陆、香港和澳门地区的收入收敛性[J].经济研究,2008,10:80-91
[101]何一峰.转型经济下的中国经济趋同研究——基于非线性时变因子模型的实证分析[J].经济研究,2008,7:39-51
[102]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛性分析[J].经济研究,2005,9:19-28
[103]刘夏明,魏英琪,李国平.收敛还是发散?——中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述[J].经济研究,2004,7:70-81
[104]蔡昉,都阳.中国地区经济增长的趋同与差异——对西部开发战略的启示[J].经济研究,2000,10:30-37
[105]沈坤荣,马俊.中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究[J].经济研究,2002,1:33-39
[106]刘伟,蔡志洲.技术进步、结构变动与改善国民经济中间消耗[J].经济研究,2008,4:4-14
[107]Lucas.,Robert.Model of Business Cycles[M].Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1987
[108]陈彦斌.中国经济增长与经济稳定:何者更为重要[J].管理世界,2005,7:16-21
[109]陈彦斌,马莉莉.中国通货膨胀的福利成本研究[J].经济研究,2007,4:30-42
[110]钞小静,任保平.中国的经济转型与经济增长质量:基于TFP贡献的考察[J].当代经济科学,2008,4:23-29
[111]Thomas,Mike.Climate Change and the Stern Review:An Overview and Comment from Future in Our Hands Network[EB/OL].http://www.climatecooperation.orgindex.php?title=Stern Review/Mike Thomas 2.
[112]章祥荪,贵斌威.中国全要素生产率分析:Malmquist指数法评述与应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,6:111-122
[113]Aghion,Philippe,Caroli,Eve and Garcia-Penalosa,Cecilia.Inequality and Economic Growth:the Perspective of the New Growth Theories[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1999,37,4:1615-1660
[114]Alesina, Alberto, and Dani Rodrik. Distributive Politics and Economic Growth[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109,2:465-490
[115]Alesina , A. and Perotti , R. Income Distribution , Political Instability, and Economic Growth[J]. European Economic Review,1996,40:1203-1228
[116]Banerjee , A. and Newman, A. Occupational Choice and the Process of Development[J]. JPE, 1993,101:274-299
[117]Bailey , M.The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance[J]. Journal of Political Economy ,1956, 64 : 93 -110
[118]Barro,R.J., Sala-i-Martin, X.Economic Growth[M], McGraw Hill,New York, 1995
[119]Barro,R.J.,M. McCleary. Religion and Economic Growth[A].Harvard University Working Paper,2003
[120]Bernard, A. and C. Jones.Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries[J] .American Economic Review,1996,86(5): 1216-1238
[121]Binder,Michael, M. Hashem Pesaran. Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications[J]. Journal of Economic Growth,1999,4:139-183
[122]Caporale T, McKiernan B. The Fischer Black hypothesis: Some time - series evidence [J]. Southern Economic Journal, 1998,64 (3) :765 - 771
[123]Chenery, H. B. and Clark, P. G. Interindustry Economics[M]. New York:John Wiley and Sons, 1959
[124]Chenery, H. B. and Syrquin, M. Patterns of Development:1950-1970[M].Oxford,U.K. Oxford University Press,1975
[125]Cho,Dongchul ,Stephen Graham. The Other Side of Conditional Convergence[J].Economics Letters,1996, 50:285-290
[126]Caselli, F., G. Esquivel and F. Lefort. Reopening the Convergence Debate :A New Look at Cross Country Growth Empirics[J]. Journal of Economic Growth,1996,1:363-389
[127]De La Croix, David and Matthias Doepke. Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters[J]. American Economic Review,2004, 93 ,4 :1091-1113
[128]Dolmas,Jim. Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,1998,1(3):646-676
[129]Epaulard,Anne and Aude Pommeret. Recursive Utility, Growth,and the Welfare Cost of Volatility[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2003, 6(2):672-684
[130]Gadi Barlevy. The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization [J].Economic Perspectives, 2005,10
[131]Green, J. and E. Sheshinski. Budget Displacement Effects of Inflationary Finance[J]. American Economic Review ,1977, 67:671 -682
[132]Imrohoroglu,Ayse and Selahattin Imrohoroglu. On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and Reduced Growth in Turkey [A]. Working paper, 1997
[133]Islam, N. Productivity Dynamics in a Large Sample of Countries:A panel Study[J]. Review of Income and Wealth, 2003,49,247-272.
[134]Joseph A. Schumpeter. The theory of economic development[M], Harvard University Press, USA.,1934
[135]Kaldor, N. A Model of Economic Growth[J]. Economic Journal,1957, 57:591-624
[136]Lewis, W. A. Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor[A]. The Manchester School ,1955,22:139-91
[137]Lee Kevin ,M. Hashem Pesaran ,Ron Smith. Growth and Convergence: A multi-country Empirical Analysis of the Solow Growth Model[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,1997,12,357-392
[138]Mirman L. Uncertainty and optimal consumption decisions[J]. Econometrica, 1971, 39(1):179-185
[139]Persson , Torsten, and Guido Tabellini.Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Theory and Evidence[J]. American Economic Review,1994,84:600-621
[140]Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt t. A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction [J]. Econometrica, 1992, 60(2):323-351
[141]Quah, D.Galtons's Fallacy and Test of the Convergence Hypothesis[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1993,95:427-442
[142]Robert J r. Lucas. Models of business cycles[M]. BasilBlackwell, Oxford, 1987
[143]Robert S.Pindyck.Investment and the persistence of price uncertainty[J].Research in Economics,2001,55(2):189-217
[144]Sandmo A.The effect of uncertainty on saving[J].Review of Economic Studies,1970,37:353-360
[145]Sack,Stephen R.Changing in Industrial Structure in Yugoslavia,1959-1968[J].The Journal of Political Economy,1972,80:561-574
[146]Temple,J.The New Growth Evidence[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1999,ⅩⅩⅩⅦ:112-156
[147]Ueno,Hyiroya.A Long-term Model of Economic Growth of Japan 1906-1968[J].International Economic Review,1972,13:619-643
[148]Van Wincoop,Eric.Welfare Gains from International Risk Sharing[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994,34:175-200
[149]Zhang,Z.,Y.Liu,A.,Yao,S.J.Convergence of China's Regional Incomes[J].China Economic Review,2001,12:243-258
[150]袁志刚.中国经济增长:制度、结构、福祉[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006
[151]林海明,林敏子.主成分分析法与因子分析法应用辨析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,9:155-160
[152]袁钢明.地区经济差异与宏观经济波动[J].经济研究,1996,10:49-56
[153]魏后凯.中国地区经济增长及其收敛性[J].中国工业经济,1997,3:31-37
[154]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国经济转型期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998,6:3-10
[155]刘强.中国经济增长的收敛性分析[J].经济研究,2001,6:70-77
[156]王铮,葛昭攀.中国区域经济发展的多重均衡态与转变前兆[J].中国社会科学,2002,4:31-39
[157]王小鲁,樊纲.中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素[J].经济研究,2004,1:33-44
[158]董先安.浅释中国地区收入差距:1952-2002[J].经济研究,2004,9:48-59
[159]王志刚.质疑中国经济增长的条件收敛性[J].管理世界,2004,3:25-30
[160]许召元,李善同.近年来中国地区差距的变化趋势[J].经济研究,2006,7:106-116
[161]陈安平,李国平.中国地区经济增长的收敛性:时间序列的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,11:31-35
[162]滕建州,梁琪.中国区域经济增长收敛吗?——基于时序列的随机收敛和收敛研究[J].管理世界,2006,12:32-41
[163]张鸿武.我国地区经济增长的随机性趋同研究——基于综列数据单位根检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,8:31-38
[164]彭国华.我国地区经济的长期收敛性——一个新方法的应用[J].管理世界,2006,9:53-58
[165]邹薇,周浩.中国省际增长差异的源泉的测算与分析(1978-2002)——基于“反事实”收入法的经验研究[J].管理世界,2007,7:37-45
[166]张茹.中国经济增长地区差异的动态演进:1978-2005[J].世界经济文汇,2008,2:69-83
[167]陈晓玲,李国平.地区经济收敛实证研究方法评述[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,8:151-160
[168]贺灿飞,梁进社.中国区域经济差异的时空变化:市场化、全球化与城市化[J].管理世界,2004,8:8-17
[169]郭克莎.总量问题还是结构问题?——产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约与调整思路[J].经济研究,1999,9:15-21
[170].胡振华,周永文.产业结构变动对经济增长的影响及其测算[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1997,4:18-20
[171]蒋成林.经济结构与经济发展关系分析[J].当代经济研究,2004,2:56-58
[172]周光友,罗素梅.经济增长方式对经济结构变化的影响[J].当代财经,2004,5:8-11
[173]郭金龙,张许颖.结构变动对经济增长方式转变的作用分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998,9:38-40
[174]周英章,蒋振声.我国产业结构变动与实际经济增长关系实证研究[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2002,3:146-152
[175]经济增长前沿课题组.经济增长、结构调整的累积效应与资本形成——当前经济增长态势分析[J].经济研究,2003,8:3-12
[176]林毅夫,刘明兴.经济发展战略与中国的工业化[J].经济研究,2004,7:48-58
[177]钱纳里等.工业化与经济增长比较研究[M].吴奇等.上海:上海三联书店,1989
[178]高帆.论二元经济结构的转化趋向[J].经济研究,2005,9:91-102
[179]刘伟.经济发展和改革的历史性变化与增长方式的根本转变[J].经济研究,2006,1:4-10
[180]高帆.分工差异与二元经济结构的形成[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,7:3-14
[181]林毅夫,任若恩.东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨[J].经济研究,2007,8:4-12
[182]钱士春.经济增长与经济波动关系研究综述[J].经济学动态,2004,4:86-89
[183]钟春平,徐长生.经济增长与经济周期内在关联研究前沿[J].经济学动态,2004,10:65-69
[184]陈浪南,刘宏伟.我国经济周期波动的非对称性和持续性研究[J].经济研究,2007,4:43-52
[185]刘恒,陈述云.中国经济周期波动的新态势[J].管理世界,2003,3:5-16
[186]李建伟.当前我国经济运行的周期性波动特征[J].经济研究,2003,7:10-17
[187]刘树成,张平,张晓晶.中国的经济增长与周期波动[J].宏观经济研究,2005,12:15-20
[188]刘树成.繁荣与稳定:中国经济波动研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2000
[189]刘金全,张海燕.经济增长在险水平、条件波动性与经济增长态势研究[J].中国工业经济,2003,1:31-39
[190]刘金全,王大勇.我国经济周期波动态势与经济增长趋势分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003,6:9-12
[191]刘金全,张鹤.宏观经济风险的冲击传导和经济周期波动的溢出效应[J].经济研究,2004,10
[192]陈彦彬,周业安.中国商业周期的福利成本[J].世界经济,2006,2:11-19
[193]陈太明.中国经济周期的福利成本:1978-2004[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,1:22-30
[194]陈利平.通货膨胀福利成本与消费攀比[J].经济学(季刊),2003,2(3):573-590
[195]万广华,陆铭,陈钊.全球化与地区间收入差距:来自中国的证据[J].中国社会科学,2005,3:17-26
[196]尹恒,龚六堂,邹恒甫.收入分配不平等与经济增长:回到库兹涅茨假说[J].经济研究,2005,4:17-22
[197]E.赫尔普曼.经济增长的秘密[M].王世华,吴筱.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2007:77-100
[198]蔡昉,都阳,王美艳.经济发展方式转变与节能减排内在动力[J].经济研究,2008,6,4-11
[2]王积业.关于提高经济增长质量的宏观思考[J].宏观经济研究,2000,1:11-17
[3]刘亚建.我国经济增长效率分析[J].思想战线,2002,28(4):30-33
[4]温诺·托马斯等.增长的质量[M].增长的质量翻译组.北京:中国财经出版社,2001:157-164
[5]Robert J.Barro,Quantity and Quality of Economic Growth[A].Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile,2002:1-39
[6]彭德芬.经济增长质量研究[M].武汉:华中师范大学出版社,2002:8-22
[7]刘树成.论又好又快发展[J].经济研究,2007,6:4-13
[8]沈坤荣.中国经济增长绩效分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,1998,1:28-33
[9]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国全要素生产率的估算:1979-2004[J].经济研究,2005,6:51-60
[10]刘亚军,倪树高.基于全要素生产率的浙江省经济增长质量分析[J].浙江社会科学,2006,6:48-53
[11]俞安军,韩士专,张顺超.利用C-D函数测算中国经济增长的质量及方式[J].统计与决策,2007,24:48-49
[12]郑玉歆.全要素生产率的再认识—用TFP分析经济增长质量存在的若干局限[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,9:3-11
[13]康梅.投资增长模式下经济增长因素分解与经济增长质量[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,2:153-160
[14]杨长友.测评经济增长质量的六大向度[J].福建论坛,2000,1:33-35
[15]李周为,钟文余.经济增长方式与增长质量测度评价指标体系研究[J].中国软科学,1999,6:37-42
[16]钟学义等.增长方式转变与增长质量提高[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001
[17]樊元,杨立勋.关于经济增长质量统计的若干理论问题[J].西北师大学报,2002,39(2):111-114
[18]李变花.经济增长质量指标体系的设置[J].理论新探,2004,1:25-27
[19]单晓娅,陈森良.经济增长质量综合评价指标体系设计[J].贵州财经学院学报,2001,6:39-41
[20]李岳平.经济增长质量评估体系及实证分析[J].江苏统计,2001,5:19-22
[21]肖红叶,李腊生.我国经济增长质量的实证分析[J].统计研究,1998,4:8-14
[22]单薇.基于熵的经济增长质量综合评价[J].数学的实践与认识,2003,33(10):49-54
[23]徐辉,杨志辉.密切值模型在经济增长质量综合评价计算中的应用[J].理论新探,2005,12:22-23
[24]赵英才,张纯洪,刘海英.转轨以来中国经济增长质量的综合评价研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006,46(3):27-35
[25]刘海英,张纯洪.中国经济增长质量提高和规模扩张的非一致性实证研究[J].经济科学,2006,2:13-22
[26]马建新,申世军.中国经济增长质量问题的初步研究[J].财经问题研究,2007,3:18-23
[27]李延军,金浩.经济增长质量与效益评价研究[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(2):73-76
[28]申世军,邬凯生.广东省山东省经济增长质量研究[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(3):64-68
[29]Holli B.Chenery.Patterns of Industrial Growth[J].American Economic Review,1960,50:624-654
[30]Denison,Edward F.Accounting for United States Economic Growth1929-1969[M].Brookings Institution,1974
[31]Kuznets,S.Economic Growth of Nations:Total Output and Production Structure [M].Harvard,Cambridge,Mass,1971
[32]夏明.转轨以来中国经济结构转变的实证分析[J].统计研究,2002,2:16-18
[33]高帆.中国各省区二元经济结构转化的同步性:一个实证研究——兼论地区经济结构转变与经济增长差距的关联性[J].管理世界,2007,9:27-36
[34]项俊波.中国经济结构失衡的测度与分析[J].管理世界,2008,9:1-11
[35]李京文,D·乔根森等.生产率与中美日经济增长研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1993
[36]周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海:上海三联书店、上海人民出版社, 1995
[37]郭克莎.中国:改革中的经济增长与结构变动[M].上海:上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1996
[38]邵宜航,刘雅南.二元经济的结构转变与增长分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,10:3-13
[39]吕铁,周叔莲.中国的产业结构升级与经济增长方式转变[J].管理世界,1999,1:113-125
[40]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002,5:14-21
[41]石磊,高帆.地区经济差距:一个基于经济结构转变的实证研究[J].管理世界,2006,5:35-44
[42]雷钦礼.中国经济结构的演化及其增长效益的测度分析[J].统计研究,2007,24(11):9-14
[43]李斌.投资、消费与中国经济的内生增长:古典角度的实证分析[J].管理世界,2004,9:13-23
[44]周华林.投资、消费协调发展与经济增长[J].经济前沿,2005,1:12-15
[45]贺铿.中国投资、消费比例与经济发展政策[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,5:3-10
[46]葛新元,王大辉,袁强,方福康.中国经济结构变化对经济增长的贡献的计量分析[J].北京师范大学学报,2000,36(1):43-48
[47]刘伟,李绍荣.所有制变化与经济增长和要素效率提升[J].经济研究,2001,1:3-9
[48]刘伟等.北京市经济结构分析[J].中国工业经济,2003,1:23-30
[49]赵农华.上海经济结构调整的实证分析:1990-2003[J].经济理论与经济管理,2004,7:65-69
[50]杨天宇,袁江.中国经济结构变迁影响经济增长的实证研究[J].探索,2005,5:71-74
[51]刘伟,李绍荣.转轨中的经济增长与经济结构[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2005
[52]谢健.经济结构的变动与区域经济的差异分析[J].中国工业经济,2003,11:78-84
[53]Black F.Business cycles and equilibrium[M].New York:Basil Blackwell,1987
[54]Kormendi.R,Meguire P.Macroeconomic determinants of growth:Cross-country evidence[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1985,16(4):141-163
[55]Grier K,and Tullock G.An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth 1951-1980[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,24(2):259-276
[56]Caporale T,McKiernan B.The relationship between output variability and growth:Evidence from post-war UK data[J].Scottish Journal of Political Economy,1996,43(2):175-184
[57]Ben S.Bernanke.Irreversibility,Uncertainty,and Cyclical lnvestment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1983,98(1):85-106
[58]Ramey G,V A Ramey.Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth[J].American Economic Review,1995,85(5):1138-1151
[59]Barro,R.J.Inflation and Growth[J].Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review,1996,78
[60]Forbes,Kristin J.A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(4):869-887
[61]Turnovsky,S.J.and P.Chattopadhyay.Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies:Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,2003,59(2):267-295
[62]刘树成.论中国经济增长与波动的新态势[J].中国社会科学,2000,1:114-122
[63]刘金全,范剑青.中国经济周期的非对称性和相关性研究[J].经济研究,2001,5:28-37
[64]刘金全,张海燕.经济周期态势与条件波动性的非对称性关联分析[J].管理世界,2003,9:18-26
[65]刘金全,付一婷,王勇.我国经济增长趋势与经济周期波动性之间的作用机制检验[J].管理世界,2005,4:5-11
[66]Alexander,R.J.Inflation and Economic Growth:Evidence from a Growth Equation[J].Applied Economics,1997,29
[67]Stanners,W.Inflation and Growth[J].Cambridge Journal of Economics,1996,20
[68]刘金全,谢卫东.中国经济增长与通货膨胀的动态相关性[J].世界经济,2003,6:48-57
[69]Murphy,K.,A.Shleifer,and R.Vishny,Income Distribution,Market Size and Industrialization[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1989,104,537-64
[70]Galor,Oded and Joseph Zeira.Income Distribution and Macroeconomics[J].Review of Economic Studies,1993,60:35-52
[71]Patridge,Mark D.Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Comment[J].American Economic Review,1997,87:1019-1032
[72]Barro,R.J.Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2000,5(1):5-32
[73]Panizza,U.Income Inequality and Economic Growth:Evidence from American data[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2002,7:25-41
[74]权衡,徐王争.收入分配差距的增长效应分析:转型期中国经验[J].管理世界,2002,5:47-54
[75]杨俊,张宗益,李晓羽.收入分配、人力资本与经济增长:来自中国的经验(1995-2003)[J].经济科学,2005,5:5-15
[76]陆铭,陈钊,万广华.因患寡,而患不均——中国的收入差距、投资、教育和增长的相互影响[J].经济研究,2005,12:4-14
[77]杨汝岱,朱诗娥.公平与效率不可兼得吗?—基于居民边际消费倾向的研究[J].经济研究,2007,12:46-58
[78]德内拉·梅多斯等.增长的极限——罗马俱乐部关于人类困境的报告[M].李宝恒.长春:吉林人民出版社,1997:19-56
[79]德内拉·梅多斯等.增长的极限[M].李涛,王智勇.北京:机械工业出版社,2006:121-162
[80]理查德·杜思韦特.增长的困惑[M].李斌,姜峰,宫庆彬.北京:中国社会科学出版社,2008:1-17
[81]梁言顺.低代价经济增长论[M].北京:人民出版社,2004
[82]焦必方.环保型经济增长模式:21世纪中国的必然选择[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001
[83]戴武堂.论经济增长质量及其改善[J].中国财经政法大学学报,2003,1:35-39
[84]李依凭.1978年-2003年我国农民实际收入增长率变动对经济增长质量影响的动 态分析[J].技术经济,2004,11
[85]洪英芳.新时期人力资源开发与提高经济增长质量和效益研究[J].人口学刊,2002,6:27-31
[86]刘海英,赵英才,张纯洪.人力资本“均化”与中国经济增长质量关系研究[J].管理世界,2004,11:15-21
[87]刘海英,张纯洪.非国有经济发展对中国经济增长质量影响机理研究—来自VEC 模型的新证据[J].经济学家,2007,6:63-69
[88]亚诺什·科尔奈.突进与和谐的增长[M].张晓光等.北京:经济科学出版社,1988:2
[89]王春雷,黄素心.基尼系数与样本信息含量[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,2:136-144
[90]程永宏.改革以来全国总体基尼系数的演变及其城乡分解[J].中国社会科学,2007,4:45-60
[91]王少平,欧阳志刚.中国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应[J].中国社会科学,2008,2:54-66
[92]Holz,C.The Quantity and Quality of Labor in China 1978-2000-2025[A].Working Paper,2005:1-81
[93]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004,10:35-43
[94]Galor,O.Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models[J].The Economic Journal,1996,106:1056-1069
[95]Baumol,W.J.Productivity Growth,Convergence and Welfare:What the Long-run Data Show[J],American Economic Review,1986,76,1072-1085
[96]Mankiw,N.G.,D.Romer and D.N.Weil.A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107:407-438
[97]Islam,N.Growth Empirics:A panel Data Approach[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110:1127-1170
[98]Bernard,Andrew,Steven N.Durlauf.Convergence in International Output[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,1995,10:97-108
[99]Quah,D.Twin Peaks:Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics[J].The Economic Journal,1996,106:1045-1055
[100]姚树洁,Chun Kwok Lei,冯根福.中国大陆、香港和澳门地区的收入收敛性[J].经济研究,2008,10:80-91
[101]何一峰.转型经济下的中国经济趋同研究——基于非线性时变因子模型的实证分析[J].经济研究,2008,7:39-51
[102]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛性分析[J].经济研究,2005,9:19-28
[103]刘夏明,魏英琪,李国平.收敛还是发散?——中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述[J].经济研究,2004,7:70-81
[104]蔡昉,都阳.中国地区经济增长的趋同与差异——对西部开发战略的启示[J].经济研究,2000,10:30-37
[105]沈坤荣,马俊.中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究[J].经济研究,2002,1:33-39
[106]刘伟,蔡志洲.技术进步、结构变动与改善国民经济中间消耗[J].经济研究,2008,4:4-14
[107]Lucas.,Robert.Model of Business Cycles[M].Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1987
[108]陈彦斌.中国经济增长与经济稳定:何者更为重要[J].管理世界,2005,7:16-21
[109]陈彦斌,马莉莉.中国通货膨胀的福利成本研究[J].经济研究,2007,4:30-42
[110]钞小静,任保平.中国的经济转型与经济增长质量:基于TFP贡献的考察[J].当代经济科学,2008,4:23-29
[111]Thomas,Mike.Climate Change and the Stern Review:An Overview and Comment from Future in Our Hands Network[EB/OL].http://www.climatecooperation.orgindex.php?title=Stern Review/Mike Thomas 2.
[112]章祥荪,贵斌威.中国全要素生产率分析:Malmquist指数法评述与应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,6:111-122
[113]Aghion,Philippe,Caroli,Eve and Garcia-Penalosa,Cecilia.Inequality and Economic Growth:the Perspective of the New Growth Theories[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1999,37,4:1615-1660
[114]Alesina, Alberto, and Dani Rodrik. Distributive Politics and Economic Growth[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109,2:465-490
[115]Alesina , A. and Perotti , R. Income Distribution , Political Instability, and Economic Growth[J]. European Economic Review,1996,40:1203-1228
[116]Banerjee , A. and Newman, A. Occupational Choice and the Process of Development[J]. JPE, 1993,101:274-299
[117]Bailey , M.The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance[J]. Journal of Political Economy ,1956, 64 : 93 -110
[118]Barro,R.J., Sala-i-Martin, X.Economic Growth[M], McGraw Hill,New York, 1995
[119]Barro,R.J.,M. McCleary. Religion and Economic Growth[A].Harvard University Working Paper,2003
[120]Bernard, A. and C. Jones.Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries[J] .American Economic Review,1996,86(5): 1216-1238
[121]Binder,Michael, M. Hashem Pesaran. Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications[J]. Journal of Economic Growth,1999,4:139-183
[122]Caporale T, McKiernan B. The Fischer Black hypothesis: Some time - series evidence [J]. Southern Economic Journal, 1998,64 (3) :765 - 771
[123]Chenery, H. B. and Clark, P. G. Interindustry Economics[M]. New York:John Wiley and Sons, 1959
[124]Chenery, H. B. and Syrquin, M. Patterns of Development:1950-1970[M].Oxford,U.K. Oxford University Press,1975
[125]Cho,Dongchul ,Stephen Graham. The Other Side of Conditional Convergence[J].Economics Letters,1996, 50:285-290
[126]Caselli, F., G. Esquivel and F. Lefort. Reopening the Convergence Debate :A New Look at Cross Country Growth Empirics[J]. Journal of Economic Growth,1996,1:363-389
[127]De La Croix, David and Matthias Doepke. Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters[J]. American Economic Review,2004, 93 ,4 :1091-1113
[128]Dolmas,Jim. Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,1998,1(3):646-676
[129]Epaulard,Anne and Aude Pommeret. Recursive Utility, Growth,and the Welfare Cost of Volatility[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2003, 6(2):672-684
[130]Gadi Barlevy. The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization [J].Economic Perspectives, 2005,10
[131]Green, J. and E. Sheshinski. Budget Displacement Effects of Inflationary Finance[J]. American Economic Review ,1977, 67:671 -682
[132]Imrohoroglu,Ayse and Selahattin Imrohoroglu. On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and Reduced Growth in Turkey [A]. Working paper, 1997
[133]Islam, N. Productivity Dynamics in a Large Sample of Countries:A panel Study[J]. Review of Income and Wealth, 2003,49,247-272.
[134]Joseph A. Schumpeter. The theory of economic development[M], Harvard University Press, USA.,1934
[135]Kaldor, N. A Model of Economic Growth[J]. Economic Journal,1957, 57:591-624
[136]Lewis, W. A. Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor[A]. The Manchester School ,1955,22:139-91
[137]Lee Kevin ,M. Hashem Pesaran ,Ron Smith. Growth and Convergence: A multi-country Empirical Analysis of the Solow Growth Model[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,1997,12,357-392
[138]Mirman L. Uncertainty and optimal consumption decisions[J]. Econometrica, 1971, 39(1):179-185
[139]Persson , Torsten, and Guido Tabellini.Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Theory and Evidence[J]. American Economic Review,1994,84:600-621
[140]Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt t. A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction [J]. Econometrica, 1992, 60(2):323-351
[141]Quah, D.Galtons's Fallacy and Test of the Convergence Hypothesis[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1993,95:427-442
[142]Robert J r. Lucas. Models of business cycles[M]. BasilBlackwell, Oxford, 1987
[143]Robert S.Pindyck.Investment and the persistence of price uncertainty[J].Research in Economics,2001,55(2):189-217
[144]Sandmo A.The effect of uncertainty on saving[J].Review of Economic Studies,1970,37:353-360
[145]Sack,Stephen R.Changing in Industrial Structure in Yugoslavia,1959-1968[J].The Journal of Political Economy,1972,80:561-574
[146]Temple,J.The New Growth Evidence[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1999,ⅩⅩⅩⅦ:112-156
[147]Ueno,Hyiroya.A Long-term Model of Economic Growth of Japan 1906-1968[J].International Economic Review,1972,13:619-643
[148]Van Wincoop,Eric.Welfare Gains from International Risk Sharing[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994,34:175-200
[149]Zhang,Z.,Y.Liu,A.,Yao,S.J.Convergence of China's Regional Incomes[J].China Economic Review,2001,12:243-258
[150]袁志刚.中国经济增长:制度、结构、福祉[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006
[151]林海明,林敏子.主成分分析法与因子分析法应用辨析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,9:155-160
[152]袁钢明.地区经济差异与宏观经济波动[J].经济研究,1996,10:49-56
[153]魏后凯.中国地区经济增长及其收敛性[J].中国工业经济,1997,3:31-37
[154]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国经济转型期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998,6:3-10
[155]刘强.中国经济增长的收敛性分析[J].经济研究,2001,6:70-77
[156]王铮,葛昭攀.中国区域经济发展的多重均衡态与转变前兆[J].中国社会科学,2002,4:31-39
[157]王小鲁,樊纲.中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素[J].经济研究,2004,1:33-44
[158]董先安.浅释中国地区收入差距:1952-2002[J].经济研究,2004,9:48-59
[159]王志刚.质疑中国经济增长的条件收敛性[J].管理世界,2004,3:25-30
[160]许召元,李善同.近年来中国地区差距的变化趋势[J].经济研究,2006,7:106-116
[161]陈安平,李国平.中国地区经济增长的收敛性:时间序列的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,11:31-35
[162]滕建州,梁琪.中国区域经济增长收敛吗?——基于时序列的随机收敛和收敛研究[J].管理世界,2006,12:32-41
[163]张鸿武.我国地区经济增长的随机性趋同研究——基于综列数据单位根检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,8:31-38
[164]彭国华.我国地区经济的长期收敛性——一个新方法的应用[J].管理世界,2006,9:53-58
[165]邹薇,周浩.中国省际增长差异的源泉的测算与分析(1978-2002)——基于“反事实”收入法的经验研究[J].管理世界,2007,7:37-45
[166]张茹.中国经济增长地区差异的动态演进:1978-2005[J].世界经济文汇,2008,2:69-83
[167]陈晓玲,李国平.地区经济收敛实证研究方法评述[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,8:151-160
[168]贺灿飞,梁进社.中国区域经济差异的时空变化:市场化、全球化与城市化[J].管理世界,2004,8:8-17
[169]郭克莎.总量问题还是结构问题?——产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约与调整思路[J].经济研究,1999,9:15-21
[170].胡振华,周永文.产业结构变动对经济增长的影响及其测算[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1997,4:18-20
[171]蒋成林.经济结构与经济发展关系分析[J].当代经济研究,2004,2:56-58
[172]周光友,罗素梅.经济增长方式对经济结构变化的影响[J].当代财经,2004,5:8-11
[173]郭金龙,张许颖.结构变动对经济增长方式转变的作用分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998,9:38-40
[174]周英章,蒋振声.我国产业结构变动与实际经济增长关系实证研究[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2002,3:146-152
[175]经济增长前沿课题组.经济增长、结构调整的累积效应与资本形成——当前经济增长态势分析[J].经济研究,2003,8:3-12
[176]林毅夫,刘明兴.经济发展战略与中国的工业化[J].经济研究,2004,7:48-58
[177]钱纳里等.工业化与经济增长比较研究[M].吴奇等.上海:上海三联书店,1989
[178]高帆.论二元经济结构的转化趋向[J].经济研究,2005,9:91-102
[179]刘伟.经济发展和改革的历史性变化与增长方式的根本转变[J].经济研究,2006,1:4-10
[180]高帆.分工差异与二元经济结构的形成[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,7:3-14
[181]林毅夫,任若恩.东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨[J].经济研究,2007,8:4-12
[182]钱士春.经济增长与经济波动关系研究综述[J].经济学动态,2004,4:86-89
[183]钟春平,徐长生.经济增长与经济周期内在关联研究前沿[J].经济学动态,2004,10:65-69
[184]陈浪南,刘宏伟.我国经济周期波动的非对称性和持续性研究[J].经济研究,2007,4:43-52
[185]刘恒,陈述云.中国经济周期波动的新态势[J].管理世界,2003,3:5-16
[186]李建伟.当前我国经济运行的周期性波动特征[J].经济研究,2003,7:10-17
[187]刘树成,张平,张晓晶.中国的经济增长与周期波动[J].宏观经济研究,2005,12:15-20
[188]刘树成.繁荣与稳定:中国经济波动研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2000
[189]刘金全,张海燕.经济增长在险水平、条件波动性与经济增长态势研究[J].中国工业经济,2003,1:31-39
[190]刘金全,王大勇.我国经济周期波动态势与经济增长趋势分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003,6:9-12
[191]刘金全,张鹤.宏观经济风险的冲击传导和经济周期波动的溢出效应[J].经济研究,2004,10
[192]陈彦彬,周业安.中国商业周期的福利成本[J].世界经济,2006,2:11-19
[193]陈太明.中国经济周期的福利成本:1978-2004[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,1:22-30
[194]陈利平.通货膨胀福利成本与消费攀比[J].经济学(季刊),2003,2(3):573-590
[195]万广华,陆铭,陈钊.全球化与地区间收入差距:来自中国的证据[J].中国社会科学,2005,3:17-26
[196]尹恒,龚六堂,邹恒甫.收入分配不平等与经济增长:回到库兹涅茨假说[J].经济研究,2005,4:17-22
[197]E.赫尔普曼.经济增长的秘密[M].王世华,吴筱.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2007:77-100
[198]蔡昉,都阳,王美艳.经济发展方式转变与节能减排内在动力[J].经济研究,2008,6,4-11