作物生产系统水分和氮素管理的DSSAT模型模拟与评价
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摘要
氮素是作物生产的主要养分限制因子,不合理的灌溉和施肥造成资源浪费、产量和品质下降,同时还引起环境污染。因此,探讨不同水分管理和不同施氮水平对作物生长的影响,实现合理施肥,对于提高作物产量和保护生态环境具有重要理论意义和应用价值。本研究基于田间试验数据,应用农业技术转移决策支持系统(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer,简称DSSAT模型)对不同田间试验进行模拟,评估了该模型的性能和地区适用性,主要研究结果如下:
1. 1959～2008年,在加拿大安大略省南部进行50年肥料效应长期定位试验,包括春玉米连作施肥处理(CC-F)和不施肥处理(CC-NF)。通过对模型需要输入的玉米遗传特性参数的校验研究,引入了不同玉米品种的光能利用效率(RUE)作为模型中玉米的遗传参数,以适应不同试验、不同地区的模拟状况。本研究在模拟50年的玉米产量时,把50年的玉米品种遗传参数划分为了4个阶段,每个阶段都有相应的一套玉米遗传特性参数代表不同时期的玉米遗传特性。结果表明,相比50年用一套玉米参数,用4套参数能够更好地模拟CC-F和CC-NF处理的玉米产量。
DSSAT模型模拟的CC-F处理的产量比模拟CC-NF处理的产量更精确,CC-F处理模拟产量与实测产量之间的标准化均方根误差(n-RMSE)是39%,决定系数(R~2)为0.36;CC-NF处理的n-RMSE值为82%,R~2为0.40。虽然DSSAT模型不能精确地模拟玉米的逐年产量,但是该模型可以较好地模拟产量变化趋势。模型模拟的2008年土壤表层(0～15 cm和15～30 cm)矿质氮(NH_4-N和NO3-N)的含量与实测值也有较大差异,CC-F处理相应分析的n-RMSE值的范围是58～60%,CC-NF处理为64～89%。模型模拟的CC-F处理的1998～2000年的累计硝态氮淋失量与测量值比较一致,相应统计值n-RMSE为29%,预测效率(EF)为0.63;而对于CC-NF处理,DSSAT模型过高地估计了累计硝态氮淋失,相应的n-RMSE统计值为160%,EF为0.04。表明模型不能很好模拟长期不施肥导致土壤退化条件下氮素的状态。
2.在加拿大安大略省西南部实施了5年(2000～2004)的玉米-大豆轮作田间试验,处理包括自由地下暗管排水(TD)和控制的地下暗管排水-地下灌溉(CDS)。模拟结果显示,DSSAT模型可以很好地模拟CDS和TD条件下玉米和大豆的产量(n-RMSE:4.3%～14.0%,d:0.985～0.998),较好地模拟0～30 cm根域土壤水含量(n-RMSE:9.9%～14.8%,d: 0.724～0.831),模拟地下暗管排水的硝态氮淋失(n-RMSE: 17.8%～25.2%,d: 0.529～0.979)效果尚可。因此,DSSAT可以作为一个很好的工具来模拟在试验所在地区或相同条件下CDS和TD处理对环境质量、作物生产力和土壤氮循环过程的短期影响(5-8年)。
3. 2006年和2007年在中国吉林省进行了不同氮素对玉米生长、氮素吸收和产量影响的田间试验。模拟结果表明,在中国东北的黑土区雨养条件下,通过校验DSSAT模型中的玉米品种参数、RUE和土壤肥料参数(SLPF),该模型可以很好地模拟地上部生物量(如校验年份d = 0.95～0.98)和籽粒产量(n-RMSE = 4.6%～9.0%;d = 0.68～0.95),但不能精确地模拟玉米氮素吸收。通过对模型中氮胁迫参数相关的氮含量参数b的敏感性分析表明,调节b值大小可以提高玉米氮素吸收的模拟精度。校验后的DSSAT模型可以作为一个很好的决策支持工具,有助于协助决策者、研究人员和生产者优化玉米的生产管理。
Nitrogen is a major limiting factor for crop production under normal field condition. Irrational irrigation and fertilization usually lead to resources waste, yield reduction, product quality decrease, and environment pollution. Therefore, it is important to develop best management practice to improve nutrient and water managements for sustained crop production and healthy environment. In this study, based on field experiment data, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Crop System Models were used to simulate different field experiments, and then the DSSAT models simulation performance and the model adaptability to the experiment condition were evaluated. The main findings are as following:
1. From 1959 to 2008, A 50 year long-term experiment was carried out in southern Canada with continuous maize with, with fertilization (CC-F) and without fertilization (CC-NF) treatments. Study on maize cultivar coefficients calibration in the simulation indicated that radiation use efficiency (RUE) should considered in maize cultivar coefficient calibration to be done for different cultivars, experiments and areas. In this study, 50 years experiments were divided into 4 periods. Based on the 4 periods, 4 set of maize cultivars were defined, and the cultivar coefficients were calibrated. Using these calibrated coefficients, the maize yields of CC-F and CC-NF could be better simulated, compared with that using only one set of cultivar coefficient in 50 year.
From the simulation results, DSSAT could simulated the yields of CC-F (with n-RMSE = 39%, R~2 = 0.36) more precisely than that for CC-NF (with n-RMSE = 82%, R~2 = 0.40). The model did not provide accurate predictions for annual maize yields. However, the model can simulate the yield change trend well. For the CC-F and CC-NF treatments, there were marked differences between simulated soil mineral nitrogen content(0-15 cm and 15-30 cm)of and the actual measured data, with the n-RMSE for CC-F ranged from 58% to 60%, and that for CC-NF ranged from 64% to 89%.
The simulated cumulative nitrate loss from CC-F treatment from 1998 to 2000 by DSSAT model was consistent with the actual measured values, with n-RMSE为29%,EF为0.63. However, For the CC-NF treatment, the DSSAT model overestimated the cumulative nitrate loss, relative to the actual measured values, with n-RMSE of 160%,EF of 0.04. This indicates that the DSSAT model could not well simulate soil nitrogen situation in the nitrogen depleted soil after long term nitrogen depletion without nitrogen fertilizer application.
2. From 2000 to 2004, in southwestern Ontario, Canada, a 5-year field experiment was carried out to investigate the effect of regular free tile drainage (TD) and controlled tile drainage with optional subsurface irrigation (CDS) on crop yield, soil water content and nitrate loss. The simulation results showed that DSSAT model could simulate the maize and soybean yield excellently (n-RMSE:4.3%～14.0%,d:0.985～0.998); well simulate soil water content (0-30cm) in root zone (n-RMSE:9.9%～14.8%,d: 0.724～0.831);reasonably good to simulate nitrate loss from tile drainage (n-RMSE: 17.8%～25.2%,d: 0.529～0.979). Thereby, DSSAT can be a useful tool for simulating the effects of TD and CDS on environmental quality, crop productivity, and soil profile processes (5-8 years).
3. Maize experiments were conducted on a black soil in Gongzhuling, Jilin, Northeast China during 2006 and 2007 to study the effect of different fertilizer application on maize growth, nitrogen uptake and yield. After calibrating maize cultivar coefficients, radiation use efficiency(RUE)and soil fertility factors (SLPF), the DSSAT model could simulate aboveground biomass (such as d = 0.95～0.98 in the calibrated year), yield(n-RMSE = 4.6%～9.0%;d = 0.68～0.95)very good, but it could not well simulate maize nitrogen uptake. By doing sensitive analysis on nitrogen content change coefficient, b, it showed that DSSAT model could simulate maize nitrogen uptake more precisely after b value adjustment. Therefore, The DSSAT 4.5 model is a useful decision support tool to help decision makers, scientists and farmers to optimize maize management using different fertilizer N application strategies.
1. 1959～2008年,在加拿大安大略省南部进行50年肥料效应长期定位试验,包括春玉米连作施肥处理(CC-F)和不施肥处理(CC-NF)。通过对模型需要输入的玉米遗传特性参数的校验研究,引入了不同玉米品种的光能利用效率(RUE)作为模型中玉米的遗传参数,以适应不同试验、不同地区的模拟状况。本研究在模拟50年的玉米产量时,把50年的玉米品种遗传参数划分为了4个阶段,每个阶段都有相应的一套玉米遗传特性参数代表不同时期的玉米遗传特性。结果表明,相比50年用一套玉米参数,用4套参数能够更好地模拟CC-F和CC-NF处理的玉米产量。
DSSAT模型模拟的CC-F处理的产量比模拟CC-NF处理的产量更精确,CC-F处理模拟产量与实测产量之间的标准化均方根误差(n-RMSE)是39%,决定系数(R~2)为0.36;CC-NF处理的n-RMSE值为82%,R~2为0.40。虽然DSSAT模型不能精确地模拟玉米的逐年产量,但是该模型可以较好地模拟产量变化趋势。模型模拟的2008年土壤表层(0～15 cm和15～30 cm)矿质氮(NH_4-N和NO3-N)的含量与实测值也有较大差异,CC-F处理相应分析的n-RMSE值的范围是58～60%,CC-NF处理为64～89%。模型模拟的CC-F处理的1998～2000年的累计硝态氮淋失量与测量值比较一致,相应统计值n-RMSE为29%,预测效率(EF)为0.63;而对于CC-NF处理,DSSAT模型过高地估计了累计硝态氮淋失,相应的n-RMSE统计值为160%,EF为0.04。表明模型不能很好模拟长期不施肥导致土壤退化条件下氮素的状态。
2.在加拿大安大略省西南部实施了5年(2000～2004)的玉米-大豆轮作田间试验,处理包括自由地下暗管排水(TD)和控制的地下暗管排水-地下灌溉(CDS)。模拟结果显示,DSSAT模型可以很好地模拟CDS和TD条件下玉米和大豆的产量(n-RMSE:4.3%～14.0%,d:0.985～0.998),较好地模拟0～30 cm根域土壤水含量(n-RMSE:9.9%～14.8%,d: 0.724～0.831),模拟地下暗管排水的硝态氮淋失(n-RMSE: 17.8%～25.2%,d: 0.529～0.979)效果尚可。因此,DSSAT可以作为一个很好的工具来模拟在试验所在地区或相同条件下CDS和TD处理对环境质量、作物生产力和土壤氮循环过程的短期影响(5-8年)。
3. 2006年和2007年在中国吉林省进行了不同氮素对玉米生长、氮素吸收和产量影响的田间试验。模拟结果表明,在中国东北的黑土区雨养条件下,通过校验DSSAT模型中的玉米品种参数、RUE和土壤肥料参数(SLPF),该模型可以很好地模拟地上部生物量(如校验年份d = 0.95～0.98)和籽粒产量(n-RMSE = 4.6%～9.0%;d = 0.68～0.95),但不能精确地模拟玉米氮素吸收。通过对模型中氮胁迫参数相关的氮含量参数b的敏感性分析表明,调节b值大小可以提高玉米氮素吸收的模拟精度。校验后的DSSAT模型可以作为一个很好的决策支持工具,有助于协助决策者、研究人员和生产者优化玉米的生产管理。
Nitrogen is a major limiting factor for crop production under normal field condition. Irrational irrigation and fertilization usually lead to resources waste, yield reduction, product quality decrease, and environment pollution. Therefore, it is important to develop best management practice to improve nutrient and water managements for sustained crop production and healthy environment. In this study, based on field experiment data, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Crop System Models were used to simulate different field experiments, and then the DSSAT models simulation performance and the model adaptability to the experiment condition were evaluated. The main findings are as following:
1. From 1959 to 2008, A 50 year long-term experiment was carried out in southern Canada with continuous maize with, with fertilization (CC-F) and without fertilization (CC-NF) treatments. Study on maize cultivar coefficients calibration in the simulation indicated that radiation use efficiency (RUE) should considered in maize cultivar coefficient calibration to be done for different cultivars, experiments and areas. In this study, 50 years experiments were divided into 4 periods. Based on the 4 periods, 4 set of maize cultivars were defined, and the cultivar coefficients were calibrated. Using these calibrated coefficients, the maize yields of CC-F and CC-NF could be better simulated, compared with that using only one set of cultivar coefficient in 50 year.
From the simulation results, DSSAT could simulated the yields of CC-F (with n-RMSE = 39%, R~2 = 0.36) more precisely than that for CC-NF (with n-RMSE = 82%, R~2 = 0.40). The model did not provide accurate predictions for annual maize yields. However, the model can simulate the yield change trend well. For the CC-F and CC-NF treatments, there were marked differences between simulated soil mineral nitrogen content(0-15 cm and 15-30 cm)of and the actual measured data, with the n-RMSE for CC-F ranged from 58% to 60%, and that for CC-NF ranged from 64% to 89%.
The simulated cumulative nitrate loss from CC-F treatment from 1998 to 2000 by DSSAT model was consistent with the actual measured values, with n-RMSE为29%,EF为0.63. However, For the CC-NF treatment, the DSSAT model overestimated the cumulative nitrate loss, relative to the actual measured values, with n-RMSE of 160%,EF of 0.04. This indicates that the DSSAT model could not well simulate soil nitrogen situation in the nitrogen depleted soil after long term nitrogen depletion without nitrogen fertilizer application.
2. From 2000 to 2004, in southwestern Ontario, Canada, a 5-year field experiment was carried out to investigate the effect of regular free tile drainage (TD) and controlled tile drainage with optional subsurface irrigation (CDS) on crop yield, soil water content and nitrate loss. The simulation results showed that DSSAT model could simulate the maize and soybean yield excellently (n-RMSE:4.3%～14.0%,d:0.985～0.998); well simulate soil water content (0-30cm) in root zone (n-RMSE:9.9%～14.8%,d: 0.724～0.831);reasonably good to simulate nitrate loss from tile drainage (n-RMSE: 17.8%～25.2%,d: 0.529～0.979). Thereby, DSSAT can be a useful tool for simulating the effects of TD and CDS on environmental quality, crop productivity, and soil profile processes (5-8 years).
3. Maize experiments were conducted on a black soil in Gongzhuling, Jilin, Northeast China during 2006 and 2007 to study the effect of different fertilizer application on maize growth, nitrogen uptake and yield. After calibrating maize cultivar coefficients, radiation use efficiency(RUE)and soil fertility factors (SLPF), the DSSAT model could simulate aboveground biomass (such as d = 0.95～0.98 in the calibrated year), yield(n-RMSE = 4.6%～9.0%;d = 0.68～0.95)very good, but it could not well simulate maize nitrogen uptake. By doing sensitive analysis on nitrogen content change coefficient, b, it showed that DSSAT model could simulate maize nitrogen uptake more precisely after b value adjustment. Therefore, The DSSAT 4.5 model is a useful decision support tool to help decision makers, scientists and farmers to optimize maize management using different fertilizer N application strategies.
引文
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