中国对外直接投资的地区差异、影响因素及溢出效应研究
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摘要
自2003年起,我国对外直接投资开始进入迅猛发展的时期。到2011年,我国已成为全球对外直接投资第六大经济体,初步奠定了对外直接投资大国的国际地位。在对外直接投资迅猛发展的同时,我国地区间对外直接投资的差异性特征非常显著,地区间对外直接投资的非均衡性现象非常突出。因此,本文以我国地区间对外直接投资差异为研究对象,利用理论阐释与实证检验相结合的研究方法,对我国地区间对外直接投资差异的演变趋势、影响因素及溢出效应进行研究,具有比较重要的理论和实践价值。
本文基于国际地位、产业选择、区位分布、主体构成、地区差异特征等角度对我国对外直接投资的发展进行了分析。结果发现,与世界投资强国美国、日本、英国、法国及中国香港地区相比,我国的对外直接投资依然存在不小的差距。我国的对外直接投资主要集中于传统行业,在高科技行业的比重非常小。近年来,我国对外直接投资区位选择的多元化趋势在增强,但仍高度集中于我国香港地区、英属维尔京群岛及开曼群岛等少数国家或地区。国有企业是我国对外直接投资最主要的投资主体,而以私营企业为代表的非公企业的对外直接投资份额非常少,这反映出我国对外直接投资的政府主导特征显著。同时,我国地区间对外直接投资的差异性特征非常显著。
本文通过构建统计指标体系,对我国地区间对外直接投资的差异性进行了测度。基于地区份额、赫希曼一赫芬达尔指数、多样性指数、均匀度指数、极商指数、基尼系数的测度显示,我国地区间对外直接投资的差异性近年来虽有所降低,但地区不均衡现象依然非常突出。基于总体差异指标的研究发现,我国地区间对外直接投资的相对差异虽然逐步缩小,但绝对差异依然进一步扩大。基于Theil系数的分析发现,自2003年以来,我国东部地区和中部地区对外直接投资的内部差异呈现出逐渐减小的趋势,但中部地区降低的幅度较小。基于区位熵的研究发现,2003年以来我国对外直接投资进入绩效较高的省市逐渐增多。
我国地区间对外直接投资差异性的动态演变趋势如何,值得我们深入研究。本文利用省际面板数据模型对我国地区间对外直接投资差异的动态演变趋势进行了实证研究。研究结果显示：全国及三大俱乐部的对外直接投资整体上表现出了“总体收敛、局部分散”的动态演变规律。从σ收敛来看,除个别年份外,全国层面、东部俱乐部及中部俱乐部均出现了σ收敛,而西部俱乐部趋向发散。从β绝对收敛来看,全国层面及东部俱乐部、中部俱乐部的对外直接投资出现了β绝对收敛的发展态势,而西部地区没有出现β绝对收敛。加入控制变量经济发展水平、工业化程度及人均外商直接投资后,全国及三大俱乐部均出现了β条件收敛。
根据新制度经济学的相关理论,制度与我国地区间对外直接投资之间存在一定的相关性。本文结合现有文献,利用新制度经济学的分析框架,基于母国经济制度和法律制度的视角,实证研究了我国地区间对外直接投资差异的影响因素。研究结果显示,从全国层面来看,市场化水平、政府治理对对外直接投资起到了促进作用,知识产权保护起到了抑制作用。从东部地区来看,市场化水平和知识产权保护分别对其对外直接投资起到了促进和抑制作用。从中部地区来看,市场化水平对中部地区的对外直接投资起到了促进作用。从西部地区来看,市场化水平和对外开放度均对西部地区的对外直接投资起到了促进作用。控制变量人力资本对全国和中部地区的对外直接投资起到了促进作用。
发展中国家对外直接投资的一个重要目的就是充分利用对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应,进而推动本国的技术创新。本文借鉴国际上研究溢出效应最流行的CH模型和LP模型,构建国际R&D技术溢出模型,将主要国际技术溢出渠道纳入同一个分析框架,比较研究对外直接投资与其他主要国际技术溢出渠道对我国技术创新的影响。总体来看,对外直接投资对我国技术创新的逆向技术溢出效应低于对外贸易的促进作用。外商直接投资对我国的技术溢出效应不仅存在地区差异,还与技术本身所属的创新层次有关。但总体来看,外商直接投资对我国多数地区的技术溢出效应不显著,这说明近年来我国实施的“市场换技术”战略没有达到预期目标。
本文利用空问计量经济学的相关理论,综合运用模型驱动和数据驱动的研究方法,将空间相关性纳入分析体系,通过构建面板数据空间计量模型,实证检验了我国地区间对外直接投资的空间溢出效应。结果显示：利用Moran I指数的检测发现我国地区间对外直接投资存在显著的正向空间相关性。通过对空间滞后模型和空间误差模型的选择发现,我国地区间对外直接投资的空间效应表现为空间溢出效应。在面板空间滞后模型的双固定模型中,经济发展水平、工业化水平、人均对外贸易、人均外商直接投资及人力资本对我国地区间对外直接投资起到了显著的促进作用。
最后,针对我国地区间对外直接投资的客观现状及存在的主要问题,提出了促进我国对外直接投资区域均衡发展的政策建议。
In2003, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) began to enter a period of rapid development. In2011, China became the sixth largest economy of OFDI in the world, and initially established its international standing of OFDI in power. With the rapid development of OFDI, the difference of OFDI among regions in China is very significant and the regional imbalance of OFDI is very prominent. Therefore, in this article, based on the difference of OFDI among regions in China as research object, with theoretical and empirical research method, it has important theoretical and practical value studying the convergence, influencing factors and spillover effect on difference of OFDI among regions in China.
Based on the international standing, industry selection, geographical distribution, regional difference, this article analyzed the development of OFDI. Results showed that, compared with the United States, Japan, France and Hongkong, there was still not a small gap of OFDI between China and international investment powers. OFDI in China mainly concentrates on the traditional industry, and the proportion of high-tech industry is very small. In recent years, the location selection diversification trend of China's OFDI has been growing, but still highly concentrated in a few other countries and regions, such as Hongkong, Channel Islands and Cayman Islands. The state-owned enterprises are the main investment subjects of China's OFDI, and the private enterprises as the representative of the non-public enterprises have a small investment share. It reflects the feature that government leads China's OFDI is significant. At the same time, the different feature of China's regional OFDI is very significant.
In this article, by building the system of statistical indicators, the difference of China's OFDI among regions in China was measured. Based on measure of the regional share, HHI Index, diversity index, evenness index, Maximum-minimum Ratio Index and Gini Index, in recent years the regional difference of OFDI in China is decreased, but the regional imbalance has been still very prominent. Study on overall difference index showed the relative difference among regions in China's OFDI gradually reduced, but the absolute gap was still widening. Based on the Theil coefficient analysis, the internal difference in eastern and middle areas of China's OFDI has been showing a gradually decreasing trend since2003, but smaller in central area. Based on the research of entropy, since2003, the cities with higher performance of China's OFDI have gradually increased.
It is worthy of our further study on the dynamic evolution law of the difference of OFDI among regions in China. In this article, by using the provincial panel data model, it was empirically studied on the dynamic evolution laws and development trends of difference of OFDI among regions in China. The results showed OFDI in China and three big clubs presented the dynamic evolution laws of general convergence and local scattered. From the convergence, except for a few years, the national level, the East club and Middle club had convergence, while the Western Club trended to be divergent. Regarding the absolute convergence, OFDI of national level, Middle club and East club appeared the development trend of absolute convergence, while the western region did not appear absolute convergence. With control industrialization variables, economic development level and per capita FDI, there was conditional convergence in national and three big clubs.
According to some theories of new institutional economics, system and OFDI among different regions in China have a certain correlation. Based on the existing literature and the economic system and legal system of the home country, the influential factors of OFDI difference among regions in China were empirically studied in this article. Research results showed that, from a national sample, the level of the market and the government management played a role in the promotion on OFDI and had an inhibitory effect on intellectual property protection. In the eastern region in China, the level of the market and the intellectual property protection on OFDI respectively played a promoting and inhibition role. In the central region, the level of the market played a promoting role on OFDI. In the western region, the level of market and the degree of opening to the outside world played a promoting role on OFDI. The control variables of human capital promoted OFDI in China and in the central region.
One of important purposes of OFDI from developing countries is to make full use of reverse technology spillover effect to promote technological innovation. Based on the most popular CH Model and LP Model among international spillover effect research, by building international technology spillover model of R&D, this article contained major international technology spillover channels in the same analysis framework and comparatively studied OFDI and other major international technology spillover channel effects on technology innovation in china. Overall, the reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI on technology innovation in China was lower than the promotion OFDI on the international trade. Regional difference existed in the technology spillover effect of FDI in China, and also related to the innovation level of technology itself. However overall, the technology spillover effect of OFDI was not significant in most regions in China, which showed that in recent years the strategy of the market for technology executed in China had not achieved the desired goal.
With some theories of spatial econometrics and the research methods of model driven and data driven, this article adopted the spatial correlation into the analysis system and built the provincial panel spatial econometrics data panel to empirically tested spatial spillover effects of OFDI among regions in China. The results showed that OFDI in regions in China had a significant positive spatial correlation by detecting Moran Index and there was a phenomenon of spatial concentration. With the selection of the Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Spatial Error Model (SEM), the spatial effect of OFDI among regions in China showed up as the spatial spillover effects. In the double fixed model of panel SLM, the level of economic development, the level of industrialization, per capita foreign trade, per capita FDI and human capital had a significant role in promoting OFDI among regions in China.
Finally, with the objective situation and existing main problems of OFDI among regions in China, policy suggestions were put forward to promote regional balanced development of China's OFDI.
本文基于国际地位、产业选择、区位分布、主体构成、地区差异特征等角度对我国对外直接投资的发展进行了分析。结果发现,与世界投资强国美国、日本、英国、法国及中国香港地区相比,我国的对外直接投资依然存在不小的差距。我国的对外直接投资主要集中于传统行业,在高科技行业的比重非常小。近年来,我国对外直接投资区位选择的多元化趋势在增强,但仍高度集中于我国香港地区、英属维尔京群岛及开曼群岛等少数国家或地区。国有企业是我国对外直接投资最主要的投资主体,而以私营企业为代表的非公企业的对外直接投资份额非常少,这反映出我国对外直接投资的政府主导特征显著。同时,我国地区间对外直接投资的差异性特征非常显著。
本文通过构建统计指标体系,对我国地区间对外直接投资的差异性进行了测度。基于地区份额、赫希曼一赫芬达尔指数、多样性指数、均匀度指数、极商指数、基尼系数的测度显示,我国地区间对外直接投资的差异性近年来虽有所降低,但地区不均衡现象依然非常突出。基于总体差异指标的研究发现,我国地区间对外直接投资的相对差异虽然逐步缩小,但绝对差异依然进一步扩大。基于Theil系数的分析发现,自2003年以来,我国东部地区和中部地区对外直接投资的内部差异呈现出逐渐减小的趋势,但中部地区降低的幅度较小。基于区位熵的研究发现,2003年以来我国对外直接投资进入绩效较高的省市逐渐增多。
我国地区间对外直接投资差异性的动态演变趋势如何,值得我们深入研究。本文利用省际面板数据模型对我国地区间对外直接投资差异的动态演变趋势进行了实证研究。研究结果显示：全国及三大俱乐部的对外直接投资整体上表现出了“总体收敛、局部分散”的动态演变规律。从σ收敛来看,除个别年份外,全国层面、东部俱乐部及中部俱乐部均出现了σ收敛,而西部俱乐部趋向发散。从β绝对收敛来看,全国层面及东部俱乐部、中部俱乐部的对外直接投资出现了β绝对收敛的发展态势,而西部地区没有出现β绝对收敛。加入控制变量经济发展水平、工业化程度及人均外商直接投资后,全国及三大俱乐部均出现了β条件收敛。
根据新制度经济学的相关理论,制度与我国地区间对外直接投资之间存在一定的相关性。本文结合现有文献,利用新制度经济学的分析框架,基于母国经济制度和法律制度的视角,实证研究了我国地区间对外直接投资差异的影响因素。研究结果显示,从全国层面来看,市场化水平、政府治理对对外直接投资起到了促进作用,知识产权保护起到了抑制作用。从东部地区来看,市场化水平和知识产权保护分别对其对外直接投资起到了促进和抑制作用。从中部地区来看,市场化水平对中部地区的对外直接投资起到了促进作用。从西部地区来看,市场化水平和对外开放度均对西部地区的对外直接投资起到了促进作用。控制变量人力资本对全国和中部地区的对外直接投资起到了促进作用。
发展中国家对外直接投资的一个重要目的就是充分利用对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应,进而推动本国的技术创新。本文借鉴国际上研究溢出效应最流行的CH模型和LP模型,构建国际R&D技术溢出模型,将主要国际技术溢出渠道纳入同一个分析框架,比较研究对外直接投资与其他主要国际技术溢出渠道对我国技术创新的影响。总体来看,对外直接投资对我国技术创新的逆向技术溢出效应低于对外贸易的促进作用。外商直接投资对我国的技术溢出效应不仅存在地区差异,还与技术本身所属的创新层次有关。但总体来看,外商直接投资对我国多数地区的技术溢出效应不显著,这说明近年来我国实施的“市场换技术”战略没有达到预期目标。
本文利用空问计量经济学的相关理论,综合运用模型驱动和数据驱动的研究方法,将空间相关性纳入分析体系,通过构建面板数据空间计量模型,实证检验了我国地区间对外直接投资的空间溢出效应。结果显示：利用Moran I指数的检测发现我国地区间对外直接投资存在显著的正向空间相关性。通过对空间滞后模型和空间误差模型的选择发现,我国地区间对外直接投资的空间效应表现为空间溢出效应。在面板空间滞后模型的双固定模型中,经济发展水平、工业化水平、人均对外贸易、人均外商直接投资及人力资本对我国地区间对外直接投资起到了显著的促进作用。
最后,针对我国地区间对外直接投资的客观现状及存在的主要问题,提出了促进我国对外直接投资区域均衡发展的政策建议。
In2003, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) began to enter a period of rapid development. In2011, China became the sixth largest economy of OFDI in the world, and initially established its international standing of OFDI in power. With the rapid development of OFDI, the difference of OFDI among regions in China is very significant and the regional imbalance of OFDI is very prominent. Therefore, in this article, based on the difference of OFDI among regions in China as research object, with theoretical and empirical research method, it has important theoretical and practical value studying the convergence, influencing factors and spillover effect on difference of OFDI among regions in China.
Based on the international standing, industry selection, geographical distribution, regional difference, this article analyzed the development of OFDI. Results showed that, compared with the United States, Japan, France and Hongkong, there was still not a small gap of OFDI between China and international investment powers. OFDI in China mainly concentrates on the traditional industry, and the proportion of high-tech industry is very small. In recent years, the location selection diversification trend of China's OFDI has been growing, but still highly concentrated in a few other countries and regions, such as Hongkong, Channel Islands and Cayman Islands. The state-owned enterprises are the main investment subjects of China's OFDI, and the private enterprises as the representative of the non-public enterprises have a small investment share. It reflects the feature that government leads China's OFDI is significant. At the same time, the different feature of China's regional OFDI is very significant.
In this article, by building the system of statistical indicators, the difference of China's OFDI among regions in China was measured. Based on measure of the regional share, HHI Index, diversity index, evenness index, Maximum-minimum Ratio Index and Gini Index, in recent years the regional difference of OFDI in China is decreased, but the regional imbalance has been still very prominent. Study on overall difference index showed the relative difference among regions in China's OFDI gradually reduced, but the absolute gap was still widening. Based on the Theil coefficient analysis, the internal difference in eastern and middle areas of China's OFDI has been showing a gradually decreasing trend since2003, but smaller in central area. Based on the research of entropy, since2003, the cities with higher performance of China's OFDI have gradually increased.
It is worthy of our further study on the dynamic evolution law of the difference of OFDI among regions in China. In this article, by using the provincial panel data model, it was empirically studied on the dynamic evolution laws and development trends of difference of OFDI among regions in China. The results showed OFDI in China and three big clubs presented the dynamic evolution laws of general convergence and local scattered. From the convergence, except for a few years, the national level, the East club and Middle club had convergence, while the Western Club trended to be divergent. Regarding the absolute convergence, OFDI of national level, Middle club and East club appeared the development trend of absolute convergence, while the western region did not appear absolute convergence. With control industrialization variables, economic development level and per capita FDI, there was conditional convergence in national and three big clubs.
According to some theories of new institutional economics, system and OFDI among different regions in China have a certain correlation. Based on the existing literature and the economic system and legal system of the home country, the influential factors of OFDI difference among regions in China were empirically studied in this article. Research results showed that, from a national sample, the level of the market and the government management played a role in the promotion on OFDI and had an inhibitory effect on intellectual property protection. In the eastern region in China, the level of the market and the intellectual property protection on OFDI respectively played a promoting and inhibition role. In the central region, the level of the market played a promoting role on OFDI. In the western region, the level of market and the degree of opening to the outside world played a promoting role on OFDI. The control variables of human capital promoted OFDI in China and in the central region.
One of important purposes of OFDI from developing countries is to make full use of reverse technology spillover effect to promote technological innovation. Based on the most popular CH Model and LP Model among international spillover effect research, by building international technology spillover model of R&D, this article contained major international technology spillover channels in the same analysis framework and comparatively studied OFDI and other major international technology spillover channel effects on technology innovation in china. Overall, the reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI on technology innovation in China was lower than the promotion OFDI on the international trade. Regional difference existed in the technology spillover effect of FDI in China, and also related to the innovation level of technology itself. However overall, the technology spillover effect of OFDI was not significant in most regions in China, which showed that in recent years the strategy of the market for technology executed in China had not achieved the desired goal.
With some theories of spatial econometrics and the research methods of model driven and data driven, this article adopted the spatial correlation into the analysis system and built the provincial panel spatial econometrics data panel to empirically tested spatial spillover effects of OFDI among regions in China. The results showed that OFDI in regions in China had a significant positive spatial correlation by detecting Moran Index and there was a phenomenon of spatial concentration. With the selection of the Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Spatial Error Model (SEM), the spatial effect of OFDI among regions in China showed up as the spatial spillover effects. In the double fixed model of panel SLM, the level of economic development, the level of industrialization, per capita foreign trade, per capita FDI and human capital had a significant role in promoting OFDI among regions in China.
Finally, with the objective situation and existing main problems of OFDI among regions in China, policy suggestions were put forward to promote regional balanced development of China's OFDI.
引文
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