东北亚边境地区人民币跨境流动研究
摘要
近年来,人民币现金在我国周边国家跨境流动逐渐形成相当规模,且人民币跨境流动的动机日趋复杂,从简单的交易需求扩大到了交易、投机、价值储备等多重动机,人民币跨境流动的途径也呈现出多样性的特点。从整体上看,大量的人民币现金跨境流动利大于弊,它在一定程度上缓解了双边交往中结算手段的不足,有利于推动和扩大双边经贸往来。但是,随着跨境流动规模的不断扩大,人民币现金跨境流动对我国金融监管乃至宏观调控带来了巨大的挑战。本文以东北亚边境地区为视角,介绍了人民币在中朝、中俄、中蒙跨境流动的现状和发展趋势,分析了人民币跨境流动的主要途径、规模估算和基本特点,总结了人民币境外流通发展的主要原因,讨论了人民币跨境流动与使用对我国经济的影响,提出了必须高度重视人民币跨境流动的风险因素,切实加强人民币跨境流动管理的对策建议,对积极推动人民币区域化问题进行了有益的探索。
Although the Renminbi convertibility under capital accounts is not yet implemented, RMB has been circulating in Chinese neighboring countries for many years, and the quantity is continuously increasing, especially in some countries or areas where there is a tendency that RMB partially substitutes for the local currency .This article illustrates the conditions and the development of the RMB's cross-border circulation in Northeast Asia; analyses where, how and how much it circulates; and summarizes the main causes leading to such currency flow. The author also discussed the advantages and disadvantages it gave to Chinese economy, and brought forward some advice to strengthen the management on the RMB cross-border flow.
There are eight parts in this article. Part 1 shows the distribution of RMB's circulation in Korea, Russia and Mongolia. In Part 2, the author tells us three main channels of this cross-border circulation: border trade, travel and under the demand of money exchange. The author also estimated the circulation amount of RMB in Part 3: the inflow and outflow of RMB in 2006 was nearly 19.7 billion, and the net outflow was about 1.9 billion. And the characters of the movement are outlined in Part 4; we can see that the micro-settlement of border trade accounts for the largest part of the circulation. In the fifth part of this article the author believes that China's comprehensive national strength, RMB's stability and the development of cross-border trade between China and Chinese neighboring countries promote the RMB cross-border flow. In the next two parts, the positive effects and the existent problems of the RMB's circulation to China are also pointed out, and finally the author provides some suggestions to strengthen the monitoring on RMB's inflow and outflow.
Fresh progress made in this article is the usage of comparative analysis method. The author not only summaries the common things happened in the three countries, but also points out the differences. Under this background, the author also suggests that various policies and measures should be carried out steadily by stages according to the corresponding countries.
According to our research, issues aroused from the cross-border circulation of RMB in Northeast Asia are quite representative: lacking the prevention system, the large amount of cash inflow and outflow in short term would reduce the borders' financial stability, and international speculators will take advantage of it where there is any speculative opportunity. The growing cross-border circulation also increases the difficulties in the money monitoring and management, because of its separation from banking system and the complicated cash flowing channels. For the same reason, Account management combating money laundering and counterfeit notes crime becomes another impossible mission. On the other hand, the current government policy that exports settled in domestic currency (RMB) can't claim for the export tax rebate undesignedly holds back the RMB's inflow, and unintendedly helps the illegal foreign exchange transactions. In summery, the frequently inflow and outflow of RMB will eventually affect the Chinese monetary policy's independence and validity.
Therefore, some institutional arrangements are proposed to carry on as soon as possible. Department of foreign exchange management should realize that RMB has been recognized as the key settlement currency in the cross-border trade between Chinese neighboring countries, and policies should be formulated to support it under the foreign exchange management system. On the tax policy, exports settled in RMB should be treated as the same as those settled in the foreign exchange and have the opportunity to claim the tax rebate or subsidies. The article reflects the views that RMB's flow monitoring system should be designed scientifically to respond to the lack in liquidity in time, and the prefigured frame include such elements as consistent indicators, report uniform system and work criterion. On the state level, the author suggests that co-operation of neighboring countries' central bank should be strengthened in order to establish inter-bank settlement system in RMB,and such governments' co-operation should be further expended to another aspects for the development of cross-border trade and the economic co-operation. In the same time, China should make efforts on the RMB's regionalization progress and promote regional co-operation and economic development.
Although the Renminbi convertibility under capital accounts is not yet implemented, RMB has been circulating in Chinese neighboring countries for many years, and the quantity is continuously increasing, especially in some countries or areas where there is a tendency that RMB partially substitutes for the local currency .This article illustrates the conditions and the development of the RMB's cross-border circulation in Northeast Asia; analyses where, how and how much it circulates; and summarizes the main causes leading to such currency flow. The author also discussed the advantages and disadvantages it gave to Chinese economy, and brought forward some advice to strengthen the management on the RMB cross-border flow.
There are eight parts in this article. Part 1 shows the distribution of RMB's circulation in Korea, Russia and Mongolia. In Part 2, the author tells us three main channels of this cross-border circulation: border trade, travel and under the demand of money exchange. The author also estimated the circulation amount of RMB in Part 3: the inflow and outflow of RMB in 2006 was nearly 19.7 billion, and the net outflow was about 1.9 billion. And the characters of the movement are outlined in Part 4; we can see that the micro-settlement of border trade accounts for the largest part of the circulation. In the fifth part of this article the author believes that China's comprehensive national strength, RMB's stability and the development of cross-border trade between China and Chinese neighboring countries promote the RMB cross-border flow. In the next two parts, the positive effects and the existent problems of the RMB's circulation to China are also pointed out, and finally the author provides some suggestions to strengthen the monitoring on RMB's inflow and outflow.
Fresh progress made in this article is the usage of comparative analysis method. The author not only summaries the common things happened in the three countries, but also points out the differences. Under this background, the author also suggests that various policies and measures should be carried out steadily by stages according to the corresponding countries.
According to our research, issues aroused from the cross-border circulation of RMB in Northeast Asia are quite representative: lacking the prevention system, the large amount of cash inflow and outflow in short term would reduce the borders' financial stability, and international speculators will take advantage of it where there is any speculative opportunity. The growing cross-border circulation also increases the difficulties in the money monitoring and management, because of its separation from banking system and the complicated cash flowing channels. For the same reason, Account management combating money laundering and counterfeit notes crime becomes another impossible mission. On the other hand, the current government policy that exports settled in domestic currency (RMB) can't claim for the export tax rebate undesignedly holds back the RMB's inflow, and unintendedly helps the illegal foreign exchange transactions. In summery, the frequently inflow and outflow of RMB will eventually affect the Chinese monetary policy's independence and validity.
Therefore, some institutional arrangements are proposed to carry on as soon as possible. Department of foreign exchange management should realize that RMB has been recognized as the key settlement currency in the cross-border trade between Chinese neighboring countries, and policies should be formulated to support it under the foreign exchange management system. On the tax policy, exports settled in RMB should be treated as the same as those settled in the foreign exchange and have the opportunity to claim the tax rebate or subsidies. The article reflects the views that RMB's flow monitoring system should be designed scientifically to respond to the lack in liquidity in time, and the prefigured frame include such elements as consistent indicators, report uniform system and work criterion. On the state level, the author suggests that co-operation of neighboring countries' central bank should be strengthened in order to establish inter-bank settlement system in RMB,and such governments' co-operation should be further expended to another aspects for the development of cross-border trade and the economic co-operation. In the same time, China should make efforts on the RMB's regionalization progress and promote regional co-operation and economic development.
引文
[1]人民币国际化研究课题组.人民币国际化的时机、途径及其策略[J].中国人民银行每两年一次对全国的人民币跨境流动情况进行调查,调查报告在系统内部先行讨论、通报,可公开部分则在后期于指定刊物上发表.
[2]王超、李昌宇.中俄边境出入境旅游发展推进对策[J].科技成果纵横,2007年01期.
[3]刘力臻、徐奇渊.人民币国际化探讨[M].北京:人民出版社,2006:138.
[4]什么是边境贸易.广西日报,2008年2月28日.
[5]王超、李昌宇.中俄边境出入境旅游发展推进对策[J].科技成果纵横, 2007年 01期.
[6]徐友仁.中越边境探访“地摊银行”[J].金融经济,2007年 05期.
[7]李婧、管涛、何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J]. 管理世界,2004年09期.
[8]刘建华、许艳杰.改进中朝边贸人民币跨境流通管理方式.中国金融,2006年07期.
[9]梅迪、陈立兴.人民币对朝跨境流动的特点、问题及对策[J].辽东学院学报,2006年02期.
[10]资料来源于新华网内蒙古频道.“俄罗斯商务日”资料:中俄边境贸易(中俄经贸合作网专稿2007-06-21)
[11]杨铭.黑河口岸货币流通问题研究[J].黑河学刊,2003 年 03 期;黑河出入境旅客首破百万大关.黑龙江日报,2006 年 12 月 26 日.
[12]刘田军.人民币对朝跨境流动现状、问题和建议[J].辽宁行政学院学报,2007年08期.
[13]朝鲜中国网
[14]国家外汇管理局网站
[15]人民币国际化研究课题组,课题组成员:蒋万进、阮健弘、张文红.人民币国际化的时机、途径及其策略[J].中国金融,2006年05期.
[16]徐国才.中俄边境口岸人民币区域化调查[J].黑龙江金融,2007 年 04期.
[1]郭锐、徐文吉.中朝韩经贸关系纵深发展的战略进路[J].国际经贸探索,2006 年第 4 期.
[2]宋德玲、李光辉.加强东亚区域合作促进中国经济发展[J].国际经济合作,2002 年第 5 期.
[3]赵传军、孙勇.加强中朝经贸合作的战略思考[J].求是学刊,2006 年第 2期.
[4]刘铁明、李俊久.东亚区域的货币金融合作与中国的制度选择[J].当代经济研究,2002 年第 5 期.
[5]张宝仁.近期中朝经贸合作现状及其发展趋势剖析[J].东北亚论坛,2005年第 5 期.
[6]人民币国际化研究课题组.人民币国际化的时机、途径及其策略[J].中国金融,2006 年第 5 期.
[7]孙立、王东东.人民币国际化的约束条件分析[J].当代经济研究,2005年第 8 期.
[8]马宇.人民币国际化还有多远.南方周末,2002 年 7 月 18 日.
[9]马荣华、饶晓辉.人民币的境外需求估计[J].国际金融研究,2007 年第 2期.
[10]刘力臻、徐奇渊.人民币国际化探索[M].北京:人民出版社,2006 年 10月.
[11]陈雨露等.作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化:美元的经验证据[J].经济研究,2005 年第 2 期.
[12]孙健、魏修华、唐爱朋.从三大货币发展历程看人民币国际化战略的路径选择[J].亚太经济,2005 年第 2 期.
[13]范爱军、肖丹丹.人民币国际化观点评述及其走向分析[J].改革,2005年第 1 期.
[14]巴曙松.人民币国际化从哪里切入[J].金融经济,2003 年第 8 期.
[15]纬恩.人民币如何走向国际化[J].中国改革,2002 年第 3 期.
[16]韦建新.人民币在蒙古国跨境投资探析[J].西安金融,2005 年第 12 期.
[17]谢冰、邹伟.铸币税与金融风险相关性的理论与实证分析[J].金融与保险,2003 年第 11 期.
[18]神玉飞、许一.我国铸币税、财政赤字与资本外逃的实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2005 年第 1 期.
[19]李稻葵.人民币国际化:势在必行,宜于速行[J].新财富,2006 年第 6期.
[20]商务部.2005 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报(非金融部分),2006 年 9月.
[21]亚洲开发银行.东亚货币与金融一体化——发展前景[M].经济科学出版社,2005 年 3 月版.
[22]万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究[M].中国商务出版社,2004 年 11月版.
[23]李婧、管涛、何帆. 人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004 年第 9 期.
[24]刘曙光. 东亚货币合作的前景与中国的作用[J].国际经济合作,2002 年第 2 期.
[25]何慧刚.最优货币区理论与东亚货币合作问题研究[M].中国财政经济出版社,2005 年版.
[26]李晓、丁一兵.亚洲的超越[M]. 当代中国出版社,2006 年版.
[27]赵庆明. 人民币资本项目可兑换及国际化研究[M].中国金融出版社,2005 年版.
[28]戴相龙、黄达.中华金融辞库[M].中国金融出版社,1998 年 10 月第 1 版.
[29]胡智.金融开放与人民币国际化研究[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2003年版.
[30]李华民.人民币国际威望大大提高.深圳商报,2002 年 11 月 4 日.
[31]唐东宁.对人民币在周边国家和地区流通的建议[J].中国外汇管理 ,2002 年第 3 期.
[32]胡海鸥.货币理论与货币政策[M].上海人民出版社,2004 年 3 月第 1 版.
[33]外汇局云南省分局课题组.人民币周边流通分析[J].中国外汇管理,2001 年第 12 期.
[34]李勇慧.“疏远”的邻居[J].俄罗斯中亚东欧研究,2005 年第 2 期.
[35]米君.俄罗斯与日本经贸合作缓慢发展之探析[J].俄罗斯中亚东欧市场, 2005 年第 3 期.
[36]李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M].中国金融出版社,2004 年.
[37]李平、刘沛志、余茂荣. 东亚地区货币合作与协调[M].中国财政经济出版社,2004 年.
[38]梅新育.稳步推行人民币计价结算[J].中国金融,2006 年第 5 期.
[39]曹红辉.国际化战略中的人民币区域化[J].中国金融,2006 年第 5 期.
[40]蒋万进、阮健弘、张文红.人民币国际化的基础[J].中国金融,2006 年第 5 期.
[2]王超、李昌宇.中俄边境出入境旅游发展推进对策[J].科技成果纵横,2007年01期.
[3]刘力臻、徐奇渊.人民币国际化探讨[M].北京:人民出版社,2006:138.
[4]什么是边境贸易.广西日报,2008年2月28日.
[5]王超、李昌宇.中俄边境出入境旅游发展推进对策[J].科技成果纵横, 2007年 01期.
[6]徐友仁.中越边境探访“地摊银行”[J].金融经济,2007年 05期.
[7]李婧、管涛、何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J]. 管理世界,2004年09期.
[8]刘建华、许艳杰.改进中朝边贸人民币跨境流通管理方式.中国金融,2006年07期.
[9]梅迪、陈立兴.人民币对朝跨境流动的特点、问题及对策[J].辽东学院学报,2006年02期.
[10]资料来源于新华网内蒙古频道.“俄罗斯商务日”资料:中俄边境贸易(中俄经贸合作网专稿2007-06-21)
[11]杨铭.黑河口岸货币流通问题研究[J].黑河学刊,2003 年 03 期;黑河出入境旅客首破百万大关.黑龙江日报,2006 年 12 月 26 日.
[12]刘田军.人民币对朝跨境流动现状、问题和建议[J].辽宁行政学院学报,2007年08期.
[13]朝鲜中国网
[14]国家外汇管理局网站
[15]人民币国际化研究课题组,课题组成员:蒋万进、阮健弘、张文红.人民币国际化的时机、途径及其策略[J].中国金融,2006年05期.
[16]徐国才.中俄边境口岸人民币区域化调查[J].黑龙江金融,2007 年 04期.
[1]郭锐、徐文吉.中朝韩经贸关系纵深发展的战略进路[J].国际经贸探索,2006 年第 4 期.
[2]宋德玲、李光辉.加强东亚区域合作促进中国经济发展[J].国际经济合作,2002 年第 5 期.
[3]赵传军、孙勇.加强中朝经贸合作的战略思考[J].求是学刊,2006 年第 2期.
[4]刘铁明、李俊久.东亚区域的货币金融合作与中国的制度选择[J].当代经济研究,2002 年第 5 期.
[5]张宝仁.近期中朝经贸合作现状及其发展趋势剖析[J].东北亚论坛,2005年第 5 期.
[6]人民币国际化研究课题组.人民币国际化的时机、途径及其策略[J].中国金融,2006 年第 5 期.
[7]孙立、王东东.人民币国际化的约束条件分析[J].当代经济研究,2005年第 8 期.
[8]马宇.人民币国际化还有多远.南方周末,2002 年 7 月 18 日.
[9]马荣华、饶晓辉.人民币的境外需求估计[J].国际金融研究,2007 年第 2期.
[10]刘力臻、徐奇渊.人民币国际化探索[M].北京:人民出版社,2006 年 10月.
[11]陈雨露等.作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化:美元的经验证据[J].经济研究,2005 年第 2 期.
[12]孙健、魏修华、唐爱朋.从三大货币发展历程看人民币国际化战略的路径选择[J].亚太经济,2005 年第 2 期.
[13]范爱军、肖丹丹.人民币国际化观点评述及其走向分析[J].改革,2005年第 1 期.
[14]巴曙松.人民币国际化从哪里切入[J].金融经济,2003 年第 8 期.
[15]纬恩.人民币如何走向国际化[J].中国改革,2002 年第 3 期.
[16]韦建新.人民币在蒙古国跨境投资探析[J].西安金融,2005 年第 12 期.
[17]谢冰、邹伟.铸币税与金融风险相关性的理论与实证分析[J].金融与保险,2003 年第 11 期.
[18]神玉飞、许一.我国铸币税、财政赤字与资本外逃的实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2005 年第 1 期.
[19]李稻葵.人民币国际化:势在必行,宜于速行[J].新财富,2006 年第 6期.
[20]商务部.2005 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报(非金融部分),2006 年 9月.
[21]亚洲开发银行.东亚货币与金融一体化——发展前景[M].经济科学出版社,2005 年 3 月版.
[22]万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究[M].中国商务出版社,2004 年 11月版.
[23]李婧、管涛、何帆. 人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004 年第 9 期.
[24]刘曙光. 东亚货币合作的前景与中国的作用[J].国际经济合作,2002 年第 2 期.
[25]何慧刚.最优货币区理论与东亚货币合作问题研究[M].中国财政经济出版社,2005 年版.
[26]李晓、丁一兵.亚洲的超越[M]. 当代中国出版社,2006 年版.
[27]赵庆明. 人民币资本项目可兑换及国际化研究[M].中国金融出版社,2005 年版.
[28]戴相龙、黄达.中华金融辞库[M].中国金融出版社,1998 年 10 月第 1 版.
[29]胡智.金融开放与人民币国际化研究[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2003年版.
[30]李华民.人民币国际威望大大提高.深圳商报,2002 年 11 月 4 日.
[31]唐东宁.对人民币在周边国家和地区流通的建议[J].中国外汇管理 ,2002 年第 3 期.
[32]胡海鸥.货币理论与货币政策[M].上海人民出版社,2004 年 3 月第 1 版.
[33]外汇局云南省分局课题组.人民币周边流通分析[J].中国外汇管理,2001 年第 12 期.
[34]李勇慧.“疏远”的邻居[J].俄罗斯中亚东欧研究,2005 年第 2 期.
[35]米君.俄罗斯与日本经贸合作缓慢发展之探析[J].俄罗斯中亚东欧市场, 2005 年第 3 期.
[36]李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M].中国金融出版社,2004 年.
[37]李平、刘沛志、余茂荣. 东亚地区货币合作与协调[M].中国财政经济出版社,2004 年.
[38]梅新育.稳步推行人民币计价结算[J].中国金融,2006 年第 5 期.
[39]曹红辉.国际化战略中的人民币区域化[J].中国金融,2006 年第 5 期.
[40]蒋万进、阮健弘、张文红.人民币国际化的基础[J].中国金融,2006 年第 5 期.