基于Earthworm的地震报警软件框架研究
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摘要
地震预警技术因其能在地震后的极短时间内发出地震警报，以此达到减灾的目的，因而其越来越受重视。美国、日本、墨西哥、土耳其等国家在地震预警方面的研究、开发、使用等都已相对成熟，已经建设相应的地震预警系统并成功得到应用，在以往的强地震中发挥了重要作用。中国大陆的地震预警研究刚刚起步，与国际先进水平相比还有很大的差距。中国的高铁、水坝、核电站等重大工程的地震报警系统是地震预警的重要环节，是迫切需要解决的课题。一般地，地震报警系统软件的框架研究是地震报警系统建设的核心技术。本文基于Earthworm平台，研究了适用于重大工程的地震报警系统软件的框架。具体的研究内容如下：
1.通过大量阅读地震预警系统国内外研究现状及动态，分析了适合于我国重大工程的地震报警系统的需求。
2.本文选取了5.12汶川地震的强震记录，采用长短平均比值法（STA/LTA方法）、线性最小二乘回归法、AIC准则方法（Akaike'sInformation Criterion）对P波到时的自动捡拾进行了研究。正常情况下，捡拾到P波精确到时后，如果加速度峰值>40gal时立即向潜在震源区报警（但还取决于网络传输的延迟）；非正常情况下，不能完全排除噪声误报，需要进一步完善。
3.分析研究了Earthworm平台的系统框架及其重要模块功能，在此基础上给出了地震报警系统软件框架。
4.利用强震动记录和干扰事件，对京石武高铁地震防灾报警系统进行模拟实验测试和验证。结果表明，本系统能在地震波到达时发出有效报警；同时，能有效剔除一部分非地震事件的干扰。
The technology of earthquake early warning which can give an alert in avery short time after the earthquake happened is taken more and moreseriously because it can achieve the goal of disaster reduction. Research,development, use of the earthquake early warning is already relatively maturein the United States, Japan, Mexico, Turkey and other countries, andcorresponding earthquake early warning system has been built and issuccessfully applied in the real life, which played an important role in the paststrong earthquake. The reseach of earthquake early warning in the Chinesemainland has just started, and it still lags behind the international advancedlevel. The alarm system of Chinses high-speed rail, dams, nuclear plants andother major projects is an improtant part of earthquake early warning, and it isa problem which is urgent need to solve. In general, the research of frameworkof the earthquake alarm software is the core technology of the construction ofthe earthquake alarm system. Based on the open source of Earthworm, theframework of the earthquake alarm software which is suited for significantprojects is studied in this paper. The research mainly includes the followingaspects:
1. The needs of the earthquake warning system which is suited for Chinesesignificant projects is analysed by reading the status and development trend ofthe worldwide earthquake early warning system.
2. In this paper, using the length of the average ratio method (STA/LTAmethod), linear least squares regression method and the AIC(Akaike'sInformation Criterion) methods, the5.12Wenchuan earthquake strong motionrecords are selected to study on automatic picker of the P wave. Under normalcircumstances, when the accurate arrival time of P wave is picked, an alarmwill be given to the potentially dangerous source region if the peakacceleration is greater than40gal (but also depends on the network transmission delay); under abnormal circumstances, the noise of falsepositives can not be completely ruled out, and further improvement is needed.
3. In this paper, the architecture of the Earthworm system and its importantmodules are studied. On this basis, the framework of the earthquake alarmsoftware is proposed.
4. Using strong motion records and disturbance events, testing and validationof earthquake disaster prevention and alarm systems is made using theexample of the Beijing-Shijiazhuang-Wuhan High Speed Rail. The resultsshow that this system can give an effective alarm when the seismic wavesarrive, and part of the interference of non-seismic events can also beeffectively removed.
1.通过大量阅读地震预警系统国内外研究现状及动态，分析了适合于我国重大工程的地震报警系统的需求。
2.本文选取了5.12汶川地震的强震记录，采用长短平均比值法（STA/LTA方法）、线性最小二乘回归法、AIC准则方法（Akaike'sInformation Criterion）对P波到时的自动捡拾进行了研究。正常情况下，捡拾到P波精确到时后，如果加速度峰值>40gal时立即向潜在震源区报警（但还取决于网络传输的延迟）；非正常情况下，不能完全排除噪声误报，需要进一步完善。
3.分析研究了Earthworm平台的系统框架及其重要模块功能，在此基础上给出了地震报警系统软件框架。
4.利用强震动记录和干扰事件，对京石武高铁地震防灾报警系统进行模拟实验测试和验证。结果表明，本系统能在地震波到达时发出有效报警；同时，能有效剔除一部分非地震事件的干扰。
The technology of earthquake early warning which can give an alert in avery short time after the earthquake happened is taken more and moreseriously because it can achieve the goal of disaster reduction. Research,development, use of the earthquake early warning is already relatively maturein the United States, Japan, Mexico, Turkey and other countries, andcorresponding earthquake early warning system has been built and issuccessfully applied in the real life, which played an important role in the paststrong earthquake. The reseach of earthquake early warning in the Chinesemainland has just started, and it still lags behind the international advancedlevel. The alarm system of Chinses high-speed rail, dams, nuclear plants andother major projects is an improtant part of earthquake early warning, and it isa problem which is urgent need to solve. In general, the research of frameworkof the earthquake alarm software is the core technology of the construction ofthe earthquake alarm system. Based on the open source of Earthworm, theframework of the earthquake alarm software which is suited for significantprojects is studied in this paper. The research mainly includes the followingaspects:
1. The needs of the earthquake warning system which is suited for Chinesesignificant projects is analysed by reading the status and development trend ofthe worldwide earthquake early warning system.
2. In this paper, using the length of the average ratio method (STA/LTAmethod), linear least squares regression method and the AIC(Akaike'sInformation Criterion) methods, the5.12Wenchuan earthquake strong motionrecords are selected to study on automatic picker of the P wave. Under normalcircumstances, when the accurate arrival time of P wave is picked, an alarmwill be given to the potentially dangerous source region if the peakacceleration is greater than40gal (but also depends on the network transmission delay); under abnormal circumstances, the noise of falsepositives can not be completely ruled out, and further improvement is needed.
3. In this paper, the architecture of the Earthworm system and its importantmodules are studied. On this basis, the framework of the earthquake alarmsoftware is proposed.
4. Using strong motion records and disturbance events, testing and validationof earthquake disaster prevention and alarm systems is made using theexample of the Beijing-Shijiazhuang-Wuhan High Speed Rail. The resultsshow that this system can give an effective alarm when the seismic wavesarrive, and part of the interference of non-seismic events can also beeffectively removed.
引文
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[16]王喆.高速铁路地震预警及快速反应系统研究[J].世界轨道交通,2006,6:44-46.
[17]徐玉毫.5.12地震引发对地震预警系统的思考[J].科技情报开发与经济，2008,18(22):76-77.
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[19]许洋,吴忠良,蒋长胜,等.用前3秒P波估计地震大小的早期预警方法是否适用于短周期记录？[J].地震学报,2008,30(2):135-143.
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[21]朱元清,佟玉霞,于海英,等.数字化台网的近震震相自动识别[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(1):5-12.
[22]赵纪东,张志强.地震预警系统的发展、应用及启示[J].地质通报，2009,28(4):456-462.
[23]朱福祥,郭迅,李山有,等.重大工程地震预警初步研究[J].世界地震工程，2002,18(3):32-36.
[24]周彦文,刘希强,胡旭辉,等.早期地震预警方法研究现状及展望[J].国际地震动态,2008,05.
[25] Akaike.H. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihoodprinciple[M].Second International Symposium on Information Theory,1973,1:267-281.
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[27] Allen R E. Automatic earthquake recognition and timing from single traces[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.1978,68(5):1521-1532.
[28] Allen R E.Automatic phase pickers: Their present use and future prospects[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.1982,72(6B):225-242.
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[32] Claudio Satriano, Anthony Lomax, and Aldo Zollo. Real-Time EvolutionaryEarthquake Location for Seismic Early Warning [J]. Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,2008,98(3):1482–1494.
[33] Chung,J.K., W.H.K.Lee, T.C. Shin（1995）.A prototype earthquake warning systemin Taiwan:operation and results[C], IUGG XXI General Assembly,Week A:A406.
[34] Dr. Amadej Trnkoczy.Understanding&Setting STA/LTA Trigger AlgorithmParameters for the K2, Application Note,1998,#41(Revision A/97).
[35] http://www.elarms.org/.
[36] J.M. Espinosa-Aranda, A. Jiménez, G. Ibarrola, F. Alcantar, A. Aguilar,M. Inostroza and S. Maldonado. Mexico City seismic alert system[J].Seismlogical Research Letters,1995,66:42-53.
[37]J.M. Espinosa-Aranda, F.H. Rodríquez. The seismic alert system of MexicoCity[M]. International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,2003,81:1253-1259.
[38] J.M. Espinosa-Aranda, A.Jiménez, G. Ibarrola, F.et al. The seismic alert system inMexico City [J]. Natural Disaster Reduction,2003,441-446.
[39] Jun Saita, Tsutomu, Yutaka Nakamura.New Field of Earthquake Early Warning andits Examples[C]. The2nd International Workshop on Earthquake Early Warning,2009.
[40] Heaton TH. A model for a Seismic Computerized Alert Network [J]. Science,1985,228(4702):987-990.
[41] Hiroo Kanamori. REAL-TIME SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE DAMAGEMITIGATION [J]. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.2005.33:195–214.
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[2]高淑芳,李山有,武东坡,等.一种改进的STA/LTA震相自动识别方法[D].世界地震工程,2008,24(2).
[3]胡聿贤.地震工程学[M].地震出版社,1988.
[4]黄媛,杨建思.用于地震预警系统中的快速地震定位方法综述[J].国际地震动态，2006,12(336):1-5.
[5]李山有,金星,马强,等.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究[J].世界地震工程，2004,20(4):21-26.
[6]吕睿.谈城市地震预警系统的建立[J].山西地震-防震减灾.2008,1(133):37-39.
[7]刘希强.基于单台P波记录的早期地震预警方法研究[D].中国地震局兰州地震研究所硕士学位论文，2008.5.
[8]马强.强震观测数据实时处理方法的研究[D].中国地震局工程力学研究所硕士学位论文，2002.12.
[9]马强.地震预警技术研究及应用[D].中国地震局工程力学研究所博士学位论文,2008.5.
[10]宋治平,等.全球地震灾害信息目录[M].地震出版社,2011.9.
[11]宋晋东.地震预警中地震波到时自动识别和震级快速估算研究[D].中国地震局工程力学研究所硕士学位论文,2007.6.
[12]田启文,工程地震学基础（征求意见稿）[M].地震出版社,2009.8.
[13]武东坡.震相识别的实时方法研究[D].中国地震局工程力学研究所硕士学位论文,2004.5.
[14]吴逸民.如何利用地震初达波从事地震预警[J].自然科学简讯2006,18(1):8-11
[15]吴忠良，蒋长胜.预警的概念及相关物理问题[J].物理，2007,36(6):472-475.
[16]王喆.高速铁路地震预警及快速反应系统研究[J].世界轨道交通,2006,6:44-46.
[17]徐玉毫.5.12地震引发对地震预警系统的思考[J].科技情报开发与经济，2008,18(22):76-77.
[18]萧乃祺.台湾实时强地动观测于地震预警之应用[D].国立中央大学地球物理研究所博士论文，1996.5.
[19]许洋,吴忠良,蒋长胜,等.用前3秒P波估计地震大小的早期预警方法是否适用于短周期记录？[J].地震学报,2008,30(2):135-143.
[20]赵荣国.震相分析是地震科学的心脏[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1999,05.
[21]朱元清,佟玉霞,于海英,等.数字化台网的近震震相自动识别[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(1):5-12.
[22]赵纪东,张志强.地震预警系统的发展、应用及启示[J].地质通报，2009,28(4):456-462.
[23]朱福祥,郭迅,李山有,等.重大工程地震预警初步研究[J].世界地震工程，2002,18(3):32-36.
[24]周彦文,刘希强,胡旭辉,等.早期地震预警方法研究现状及展望[J].国际地震动态,2008,05.
[25] Akaike.H. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihoodprinciple[M].Second International Symposium on Information Theory,1973,1:267-281.
[26] Allen R M, Kanamori H.. The potential for earthquake early warning in SouthernCalifornia [J]. Science,2003,300:786-789.
[27] Allen R E. Automatic earthquake recognition and timing from single traces[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.1978,68(5):1521-1532.
[28] Allen R E.Automatic phase pickers: Their present use and future prospects[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.1982,72(6B):225-242.
[29] Bakun WH, Fischer FG, Jensen EG,VanSchaack J. Early warning system foraftershocks[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.1994,84(2):359-365.
[30] B se,M., Wenzel.F..PreSEIS: A Neural Network-Based Approach to EarthquakeEarly Warning for Finite Faults [J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,2008,98(1):366-382.
[31] B se, M., C. Ionescu, and F. Wenzel.Earthquake early warning for Bucharest,Romania: Novel and revised scaling relations[J]. Geophys. GEOPHYSICALRESEARCH LETTERS,2007,34.L07302.
[32] Claudio Satriano, Anthony Lomax, and Aldo Zollo. Real-Time EvolutionaryEarthquake Location for Seismic Early Warning [J]. Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,2008,98(3):1482–1494.
[33] Chung,J.K., W.H.K.Lee, T.C. Shin（1995）.A prototype earthquake warning systemin Taiwan:operation and results[C], IUGG XXI General Assembly,Week A:A406.
[34] Dr. Amadej Trnkoczy.Understanding&Setting STA/LTA Trigger AlgorithmParameters for the K2, Application Note,1998,#41(Revision A/97).
[35] http://www.elarms.org/.
[36] J.M. Espinosa-Aranda, A. Jiménez, G. Ibarrola, F. Alcantar, A. Aguilar,M. Inostroza and S. Maldonado. Mexico City seismic alert system[J].Seismlogical Research Letters,1995,66:42-53.
[37]J.M. Espinosa-Aranda, F.H. Rodríquez. The seismic alert system of MexicoCity[M]. International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,2003,81:1253-1259.
[38] J.M. Espinosa-Aranda, A.Jiménez, G. Ibarrola, F.et al. The seismic alert system inMexico City [J]. Natural Disaster Reduction,2003,441-446.
[39] Jun Saita, Tsutomu, Yutaka Nakamura.New Field of Earthquake Early Warning andits Examples[C]. The2nd International Workshop on Earthquake Early Warning,2009.
[40] Heaton TH. A model for a Seismic Computerized Alert Network [J]. Science,1985,228(4702):987-990.
[41] Hiroo Kanamori. REAL-TIME SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE DAMAGEMITIGATION [J]. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.2005.33:195–214.
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