金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策体系研究
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摘要
始于2008年的全球金融危机给企业带来了巨大的冲击,这种冲击的目标不仅仅是企业的正常经营活动,更重要的是改变了企业决策者对自身、对环境和未来经济发展的预期,因此,当企业面临是否通过并购投资来实现规模的扩大或者危机的应对时,企业并购投资决策体系的运行机理就成为决定并购决策成败的重要因素。基于上述逻辑,本文对金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策体系进行了较为深入的研究。
通过对已经出现的全球并购五大浪潮进行分析可以看出,企业并购投资通常出于扩大企业生产规模、提高企业管理和经营协同效应、实现企业多元化经营以及满足经理阶层扩张动机等不同考虑,因此,并购中目标企业的选择战略、有关目标企业的信息搜集、目标企业的搜寻和筛选、目标企业本身如何决策、目标企业的选择路径等都成为并购决策的重要内容。但从决策理论的相关研究可以发现,金融危机环境下的不确定条件已经成为影响决策制定的重要因素,因此,从投资决策的性质、原则、影响因素、流程等方面来看,特定环境下的决策更符合有限理性决策等行为决策方法所适用的范围。
企业并购通常是指一个公司吞并一个或多个公司,或者两个或多个公司合并成为一个公司的行为,并购投资决策是为了达到并购目标,在信息和经验的基础上,根据客观条件,采用一定方法,从若干个备选并购方案中,选择一个满意而科学的并购方案所进行的分析、判断和抉择的过程。金融危机一方面会抑制企业的并购需求,另一方面,随着金融危机加深,企业扩张的成本也在逐渐降低,反过来又会刺激企业的并购需求。金融危机背景下并购投资决策的特征表现为,金融危机环境本身造成并购投资决策的复杂性、并购投资决策过程的长期性、并购投资决策时机的敏感性、并购投资决策的风险性。应根据这些特征构建金融危机背景下企业的并购投资决策体系。
从建立金融危机背景下的企业并购投资决策体系视角来看,并购投资决策受多种因素的影响。在企业外部环境因素中,一部分是宏观环境因素,包含硬环境和软环境两类,软环境主要是经济环境、政治和法律环境、社会环境;外部环境因素的另一部分是微观环境因素,包括产业发展、技术和市场状况的影响。在企业内部因素中,企业组织结构、资源状况、企业文化等几个方面对并购投资决策都会产生影响。
基于系统理论视角,从主体、客体、方法、制度等方面可以更好地对金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策体系进行较为深入的分析。从决策主体来看,并购投资决策的做出需要企业高层决策者来完成,但在决策制定以及实施过程离不开企业中层管理人员的支持,因此,高层决策者和中层管理人员都应作为决策的主体。决策客体主要是指目标企业选择、并购与新建比较、融资与支付等内容。决策方法是指企业在进行决策时所使用的决策技术。决策制度是指企业内部要求所有决策主体共同遵守的、按统一程序办事的规程。
基于上述分析内容,可以对金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策体系的运行机制进行论述。从动力机制上看,企业并购决策的做出及执行将会影响企业内部的产权关系,因而对不同利益主体将会产生不同的影响,因此,企业并购决策的做出是企业内部不同利益主体在各自目标导向前提下行动博弈的结果。从信息保障机制上看,企业在进行并购决策的过程中,应当在明确并购目标的基础上,对并购对象以及自身进行客观有效的评估,避免并购超出自己能力范围,因此需要建立起有效的外部信息保障机制和内部信息保障机制。从协调机制上看,在金融危机背景下不同主体之间的利益诉求将表现出相当大的差异,投资决策体系内不同主体之间的有效协调机制就成为决定体系运行的非常重要的组成部分。从实施机制上看,决策目标、决策内容、决策执行与决策评价是并购投资决策体系的过程,是决策体系的主体构成部分。
为了实现对金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策进行量化评价,通过邀请相关专家对备选评价指标进行筛选,可以建立评价指标体系,并选用层次分析法作为权重的确定方法,运用该方法确定了每个指标的权重,进而运用模糊数学方法作为企业并购投资决策体系的评价方法,可以构建出金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策体系的评价模型。
针对C公司并购重组的实际操作过程,结合对该公司所处行业背景及发展情况的分析,通过对该公司的发展历程、资金实力、竞争风险以及企业发展存在的主要问题进行分析,从优势劣势对比和发展机遇的角度对该公司的并购动机进行了论述,总结归纳了该公司并购战略和预期目标,并有针对性地对备选企业以及新建投资方式进行了比较判断,进而分析了该公司并购重组过程的技术体系、制度体系和组织体系等内容,并对其进行了量化评价。
通过分析,可以得出如下结论:
一是构成企业并购投资决策体系主体的高层决策者和中层管理人员的行为、判断、预期以及其受金融危机因素影响,都将使系统功能发生改变,进而影响着决策制定的科学水平。
二是决策主体对决策客体的作用、决策主体对决策方法的选择、决策制度对决策主体行为的制约以及决策客体对决策方法的限定等内容,构成了并购投资决策体系的内在结构。
三是基于各自完全不同的价值判断,在同一并购决策中,不同利益主体可能会做出完全不同的预期,这种预期的差异又会影响主体的动机和目的,最终在其行为中得到体现。
四是企业高层决策者与中层管理人员之间的有效沟通和综合协调可以帮助不同的决策主体不断调整自身对决策问题的看法,从而在一定限度内保证各个决策主体的利益诉求,从而最终实现决策的制定。只有充分保障不同决策主体之间的协调和信息沟通渠道的顺畅,才能保证决策制定的科学性和合理性。
The global financial crisis beginning in 2008 has brought about the great impacts on the enterprises. Such impacts have changed not only the normal operating activities of the enterprises but also the anticipation of themselves, environment and economic development in the future of the decision-makers of the enterprises; therefore, when the enterprises face whether to realize the scale expansion or deal with the crisis via the merger and investment, the operating mechanism of the merger and investment decision-making system of the enterprise has become the important factor of determining whether the merger decision-making is successful or not. Based on the above logics, the deep-going research on the merger and investment decision-making system of the enterprise on the background of financial crisis is made in the paper.
It can be seen from the analysis of the five major merger waves having occurred in the world, the merger and investment of the enterprises is usually taken into account from some different perspectives such as improving the production scales of the enterprises, improving the coordinative effects of management and operation of the enterprises, realizing the multiple operation of the enterprises and meeting the motive of expansion of the manager’s level. Therefore, the choice strategy of the target enterprises, relevant information collection of the target enterprises, searching and sifting of the target enterprises, how the target enterprises make decision by themselves and the choice paths of the target enterprises, etc. in the merger have become the important components of the merger decision making. However, it can be found from the relevant research on the decision-making theory, the uncertain conditions in the environment of financial crisis have become the important factors of influencing the decision-making. Therefore, the decision-making in the special environment more conform to the applicable scope of some decision-making methods such as rational decision-making, etc. viewed from some aspects such as property, principle, influencing factors and flow, etc. of the investment decision-making.
The merger of an enterprise usually refers to the action that a company mergers an or more companies or two or more companies are combined into a company. The merger investment decision-making is to achieve the purpose of merger, and it is the process of analysis, judgment and decision in which, based on information and experience, some methods are taken according to the objective conditions and a satisfactory and scientific merger plan will be chosen from some alternative plans. The financial crisis will restrain the merger demand of the enterprises on the one hand; the cost of the enterprise expansion will also be gradually reduced with the deepening of the financial crisis, which will stimulate the merger demand of the enterprises. The characteristics of the merger investment decision-making on the background of financial crisis are represented that the environment of financial crisis causes the complexity of the merger investment decision-making by itself, long term of the merger investment decision-making process, sensitivity of the merger investment decision-making opportunity and risk of the merger investment decision-making. The merger investment decision-making system on the background of financial crisis shall be built according to the characteristics.
Viewed from the perspective of building the merger investment decision-making system of the enterprises on the background of financial crisis, the merger investment decision-making is influenced by many factors. In the external environmental factors of the enterprises, some are macro-environmental factors, including hard environment and soft environment. The soft environment mainly refers to the economic environment, political and legal environment, social environment; the others of the external environmental factors are micro-environmental factors, including the impacts of industrial development, technical and market conditions. In the internal factors of the enterprises, the organizational structures of the enterprises, resource conditions and enterprise culture, etc. will influence the merger investment decision-making.
Based on the theoretical perspective of the system, the deep-going analysis of the merger investment decision-making system of the enterprises on the background of financial crisis can be better made from some aspects such as subject, object, method and system, etc. Viewed from the decision-making subject, the merger investment decision-making shall b e completed by the high-level decision-makers of the enterprise, but the support of the middle-level administrators is needed in the decision-making and implementation; therefore, both the high-level decision-makers and the middle-level administrators shall be taken as the decision-making subjects. The decision-making objects mainly refer to some contents such as choice of target enterprises, merger and new comparison, financing and payment, etc. The decision-making method refers to the decision-making technique used by the enterprise in the decision-making. The decision-making system refers to the specification that all the decision-making subjects shall abide by and deal with activities according to the uniform procedure in the enterprise.
Based on the above analysis contents, the operating mechanism of the merger investment decision-making system of the enterprise on the background of financial crisis can be dealt with. Viewed from the power mechanism, the merger decision-making and implementation of the enterprise will influence the property right relations in the enterprise, so the different impacts on the different interest subjects will be produced; therefore, the merger decision-making of the enterprise is the result of the action game of the different interest subjects in the enterprise guided by their own targets. Viewed from the information support mechanism, the enterprise shall base itself on determining the merger targets in the merger decision-making and carry out the objective and effective evaluation of the merger objects and itself and avoid the range beyond its own capacity; therefore, the effective external information support mechanism and internal information support mechanism shall be built. Viewed from the coordinating mechanism, the interest requests between the different subjects on the background of financial crisis will be quite different. The effective coordinating mechanism between the different subjects in the investment decision-making system will become the very important component of the operation of the decision-making system. Viewed from the implementation mechanism, the decision-making target, decision-making contents, decision-making implementation and decision-making evaluation are the process of the merger decision-making system and the components of the subject of the decision-making system.
In order to realize the quantitative evaluation of the merger investment decision-making of the enterprises on the background of financial crisis, some relevant experts are invited to sift the alternative evaluation indexes to build the evaluation index system, choose the hierarchical analysis method as the determination method of weighing, use the method to determine the weighing of each index and further use the fuzzy mathematic method as the evaluation method of the merger decision-making system of the enterprise and build the merger investment evaluation model of the enterprise on the background of financial crisis.
According to the actual operating process of merger and grouping of AP, in combination with the analysis of the industrial background and development of the company, with the analysis of some main problems existing in the development history, fund strength, competitive risks and enterprise development of the company, the merger motives of the company are dealt with from the perspectives of comparison of advantages and disadvantages and development opportunity, the merger strategy and anticipated targets of the company are concluded, the alternative enterprises and new investment modes are pertinently compared and judged to further analyze the technical system, regime system and organizational system, etc. in the merger and grouping of the company and carry out the quantitative evaluation.
With the analysis, the following conclusion is made:
First, the behavior, judgment, anticipation and impacts of the financial crisis factors of the high-level decision-makers and middle-level administrators constituting the subjects of the merger investment decision-making system of the enterprise will make the functions of the system changed and further influence the scientific level of decision-making.
Second, the roles of the decision-making subjects in the decision-making objects, choice of the decision-making methods by the decision-making subjects, restriction of the decision-making system on the behavior of the decision-making subjects and limits of the decision-making objects on the decision-making methods, etc. constitute the internal structure of the merger investment decision-making system.
Third, based on the completely different value judgment, in the same merger decision-making, the different interest subjects may make the completely different anticipations whose differences will influence the motives and purposes of the subjects and finally be represented in their behavior.
Fourth, the effective communication and integrated coordination between the high-level decision-makers and middle-level administrators of the enterprise can help the different decision-making subjects continuously adjust their own opinions on the decision-making problems so as to assure the interests requests of all the decision-making subjects, to some extent and finally realize the decision-making. Only when the coordination between the different decision-making subjects and the smooth information communication channels are fully assured can the scientific and rational decision-making be assured.
通过对已经出现的全球并购五大浪潮进行分析可以看出,企业并购投资通常出于扩大企业生产规模、提高企业管理和经营协同效应、实现企业多元化经营以及满足经理阶层扩张动机等不同考虑,因此,并购中目标企业的选择战略、有关目标企业的信息搜集、目标企业的搜寻和筛选、目标企业本身如何决策、目标企业的选择路径等都成为并购决策的重要内容。但从决策理论的相关研究可以发现,金融危机环境下的不确定条件已经成为影响决策制定的重要因素,因此,从投资决策的性质、原则、影响因素、流程等方面来看,特定环境下的决策更符合有限理性决策等行为决策方法所适用的范围。
企业并购通常是指一个公司吞并一个或多个公司,或者两个或多个公司合并成为一个公司的行为,并购投资决策是为了达到并购目标,在信息和经验的基础上,根据客观条件,采用一定方法,从若干个备选并购方案中,选择一个满意而科学的并购方案所进行的分析、判断和抉择的过程。金融危机一方面会抑制企业的并购需求,另一方面,随着金融危机加深,企业扩张的成本也在逐渐降低,反过来又会刺激企业的并购需求。金融危机背景下并购投资决策的特征表现为,金融危机环境本身造成并购投资决策的复杂性、并购投资决策过程的长期性、并购投资决策时机的敏感性、并购投资决策的风险性。应根据这些特征构建金融危机背景下企业的并购投资决策体系。
从建立金融危机背景下的企业并购投资决策体系视角来看,并购投资决策受多种因素的影响。在企业外部环境因素中,一部分是宏观环境因素,包含硬环境和软环境两类,软环境主要是经济环境、政治和法律环境、社会环境;外部环境因素的另一部分是微观环境因素,包括产业发展、技术和市场状况的影响。在企业内部因素中,企业组织结构、资源状况、企业文化等几个方面对并购投资决策都会产生影响。
基于系统理论视角,从主体、客体、方法、制度等方面可以更好地对金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策体系进行较为深入的分析。从决策主体来看,并购投资决策的做出需要企业高层决策者来完成,但在决策制定以及实施过程离不开企业中层管理人员的支持,因此,高层决策者和中层管理人员都应作为决策的主体。决策客体主要是指目标企业选择、并购与新建比较、融资与支付等内容。决策方法是指企业在进行决策时所使用的决策技术。决策制度是指企业内部要求所有决策主体共同遵守的、按统一程序办事的规程。
基于上述分析内容,可以对金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策体系的运行机制进行论述。从动力机制上看,企业并购决策的做出及执行将会影响企业内部的产权关系,因而对不同利益主体将会产生不同的影响,因此,企业并购决策的做出是企业内部不同利益主体在各自目标导向前提下行动博弈的结果。从信息保障机制上看,企业在进行并购决策的过程中,应当在明确并购目标的基础上,对并购对象以及自身进行客观有效的评估,避免并购超出自己能力范围,因此需要建立起有效的外部信息保障机制和内部信息保障机制。从协调机制上看,在金融危机背景下不同主体之间的利益诉求将表现出相当大的差异,投资决策体系内不同主体之间的有效协调机制就成为决定体系运行的非常重要的组成部分。从实施机制上看,决策目标、决策内容、决策执行与决策评价是并购投资决策体系的过程,是决策体系的主体构成部分。
为了实现对金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策进行量化评价,通过邀请相关专家对备选评价指标进行筛选,可以建立评价指标体系,并选用层次分析法作为权重的确定方法,运用该方法确定了每个指标的权重,进而运用模糊数学方法作为企业并购投资决策体系的评价方法,可以构建出金融危机背景下企业并购投资决策体系的评价模型。
针对C公司并购重组的实际操作过程,结合对该公司所处行业背景及发展情况的分析,通过对该公司的发展历程、资金实力、竞争风险以及企业发展存在的主要问题进行分析,从优势劣势对比和发展机遇的角度对该公司的并购动机进行了论述,总结归纳了该公司并购战略和预期目标,并有针对性地对备选企业以及新建投资方式进行了比较判断,进而分析了该公司并购重组过程的技术体系、制度体系和组织体系等内容,并对其进行了量化评价。
通过分析,可以得出如下结论:
一是构成企业并购投资决策体系主体的高层决策者和中层管理人员的行为、判断、预期以及其受金融危机因素影响,都将使系统功能发生改变,进而影响着决策制定的科学水平。
二是决策主体对决策客体的作用、决策主体对决策方法的选择、决策制度对决策主体行为的制约以及决策客体对决策方法的限定等内容,构成了并购投资决策体系的内在结构。
三是基于各自完全不同的价值判断,在同一并购决策中,不同利益主体可能会做出完全不同的预期,这种预期的差异又会影响主体的动机和目的,最终在其行为中得到体现。
四是企业高层决策者与中层管理人员之间的有效沟通和综合协调可以帮助不同的决策主体不断调整自身对决策问题的看法,从而在一定限度内保证各个决策主体的利益诉求,从而最终实现决策的制定。只有充分保障不同决策主体之间的协调和信息沟通渠道的顺畅,才能保证决策制定的科学性和合理性。
The global financial crisis beginning in 2008 has brought about the great impacts on the enterprises. Such impacts have changed not only the normal operating activities of the enterprises but also the anticipation of themselves, environment and economic development in the future of the decision-makers of the enterprises; therefore, when the enterprises face whether to realize the scale expansion or deal with the crisis via the merger and investment, the operating mechanism of the merger and investment decision-making system of the enterprise has become the important factor of determining whether the merger decision-making is successful or not. Based on the above logics, the deep-going research on the merger and investment decision-making system of the enterprise on the background of financial crisis is made in the paper.
It can be seen from the analysis of the five major merger waves having occurred in the world, the merger and investment of the enterprises is usually taken into account from some different perspectives such as improving the production scales of the enterprises, improving the coordinative effects of management and operation of the enterprises, realizing the multiple operation of the enterprises and meeting the motive of expansion of the manager’s level. Therefore, the choice strategy of the target enterprises, relevant information collection of the target enterprises, searching and sifting of the target enterprises, how the target enterprises make decision by themselves and the choice paths of the target enterprises, etc. in the merger have become the important components of the merger decision making. However, it can be found from the relevant research on the decision-making theory, the uncertain conditions in the environment of financial crisis have become the important factors of influencing the decision-making. Therefore, the decision-making in the special environment more conform to the applicable scope of some decision-making methods such as rational decision-making, etc. viewed from some aspects such as property, principle, influencing factors and flow, etc. of the investment decision-making.
The merger of an enterprise usually refers to the action that a company mergers an or more companies or two or more companies are combined into a company. The merger investment decision-making is to achieve the purpose of merger, and it is the process of analysis, judgment and decision in which, based on information and experience, some methods are taken according to the objective conditions and a satisfactory and scientific merger plan will be chosen from some alternative plans. The financial crisis will restrain the merger demand of the enterprises on the one hand; the cost of the enterprise expansion will also be gradually reduced with the deepening of the financial crisis, which will stimulate the merger demand of the enterprises. The characteristics of the merger investment decision-making on the background of financial crisis are represented that the environment of financial crisis causes the complexity of the merger investment decision-making by itself, long term of the merger investment decision-making process, sensitivity of the merger investment decision-making opportunity and risk of the merger investment decision-making. The merger investment decision-making system on the background of financial crisis shall be built according to the characteristics.
Viewed from the perspective of building the merger investment decision-making system of the enterprises on the background of financial crisis, the merger investment decision-making is influenced by many factors. In the external environmental factors of the enterprises, some are macro-environmental factors, including hard environment and soft environment. The soft environment mainly refers to the economic environment, political and legal environment, social environment; the others of the external environmental factors are micro-environmental factors, including the impacts of industrial development, technical and market conditions. In the internal factors of the enterprises, the organizational structures of the enterprises, resource conditions and enterprise culture, etc. will influence the merger investment decision-making.
Based on the theoretical perspective of the system, the deep-going analysis of the merger investment decision-making system of the enterprises on the background of financial crisis can be better made from some aspects such as subject, object, method and system, etc. Viewed from the decision-making subject, the merger investment decision-making shall b e completed by the high-level decision-makers of the enterprise, but the support of the middle-level administrators is needed in the decision-making and implementation; therefore, both the high-level decision-makers and the middle-level administrators shall be taken as the decision-making subjects. The decision-making objects mainly refer to some contents such as choice of target enterprises, merger and new comparison, financing and payment, etc. The decision-making method refers to the decision-making technique used by the enterprise in the decision-making. The decision-making system refers to the specification that all the decision-making subjects shall abide by and deal with activities according to the uniform procedure in the enterprise.
Based on the above analysis contents, the operating mechanism of the merger investment decision-making system of the enterprise on the background of financial crisis can be dealt with. Viewed from the power mechanism, the merger decision-making and implementation of the enterprise will influence the property right relations in the enterprise, so the different impacts on the different interest subjects will be produced; therefore, the merger decision-making of the enterprise is the result of the action game of the different interest subjects in the enterprise guided by their own targets. Viewed from the information support mechanism, the enterprise shall base itself on determining the merger targets in the merger decision-making and carry out the objective and effective evaluation of the merger objects and itself and avoid the range beyond its own capacity; therefore, the effective external information support mechanism and internal information support mechanism shall be built. Viewed from the coordinating mechanism, the interest requests between the different subjects on the background of financial crisis will be quite different. The effective coordinating mechanism between the different subjects in the investment decision-making system will become the very important component of the operation of the decision-making system. Viewed from the implementation mechanism, the decision-making target, decision-making contents, decision-making implementation and decision-making evaluation are the process of the merger decision-making system and the components of the subject of the decision-making system.
In order to realize the quantitative evaluation of the merger investment decision-making of the enterprises on the background of financial crisis, some relevant experts are invited to sift the alternative evaluation indexes to build the evaluation index system, choose the hierarchical analysis method as the determination method of weighing, use the method to determine the weighing of each index and further use the fuzzy mathematic method as the evaluation method of the merger decision-making system of the enterprise and build the merger investment evaluation model of the enterprise on the background of financial crisis.
According to the actual operating process of merger and grouping of AP, in combination with the analysis of the industrial background and development of the company, with the analysis of some main problems existing in the development history, fund strength, competitive risks and enterprise development of the company, the merger motives of the company are dealt with from the perspectives of comparison of advantages and disadvantages and development opportunity, the merger strategy and anticipated targets of the company are concluded, the alternative enterprises and new investment modes are pertinently compared and judged to further analyze the technical system, regime system and organizational system, etc. in the merger and grouping of the company and carry out the quantitative evaluation.
With the analysis, the following conclusion is made:
First, the behavior, judgment, anticipation and impacts of the financial crisis factors of the high-level decision-makers and middle-level administrators constituting the subjects of the merger investment decision-making system of the enterprise will make the functions of the system changed and further influence the scientific level of decision-making.
Second, the roles of the decision-making subjects in the decision-making objects, choice of the decision-making methods by the decision-making subjects, restriction of the decision-making system on the behavior of the decision-making subjects and limits of the decision-making objects on the decision-making methods, etc. constitute the internal structure of the merger investment decision-making system.
Third, based on the completely different value judgment, in the same merger decision-making, the different interest subjects may make the completely different anticipations whose differences will influence the motives and purposes of the subjects and finally be represented in their behavior.
Fourth, the effective communication and integrated coordination between the high-level decision-makers and middle-level administrators of the enterprise can help the different decision-making subjects continuously adjust their own opinions on the decision-making problems so as to assure the interests requests of all the decision-making subjects, to some extent and finally realize the decision-making. Only when the coordination between the different decision-making subjects and the smooth information communication channels are fully assured can the scientific and rational decision-making be assured.
引文
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