梅雨期江淮暴雨发生发展动力学机制的初步分析研究
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摘要
采用NCEP全球谱模式和常规观测资料对“03.7”江淮地区的两次暴雨过程的影响系统及其可能机制进行了初步诊断分析，发现梅雨暴雨是受低槽、低涡、切变线、高、低空急流和梅雨锋区共同影响造成的，该地区维持高能、饱和、潜在不稳定的环境，有利于暴雨的产生中尺度数值模式(MM5)模拟结果表明梅雨暴雨与中尺度涡柱、强对流运动密切相关。进一步研究表明中尺度涡柱的形成与高、低空急流耦合和干侵入有关。位势不稳定和条件性对称不稳定共存使得在θ_e高值区域的垂直上升运动和在θ_e面(梅雨锋区)上的斜上升运动得以产生和维持。视热源、视水汽汇和螺旋度的诊断分析表明，暴雨发生与它们密切相关。利用雷达、卫星资料对初始湿度场的改进和四维变分同化对初始风场的改进进行中尺度数值模式(MM5)模拟，提高了梅雨暴雨模拟能力。
Based on NCEP and other observational datasets, two severe heavy rainfalls process occurred over Changjiang-Huaihe River basin during July, 2003 were primary investigated. The first diagnostic analyses show that the heavy rainfalls are produced together by vortex, shear line and upper and lower jets, Meiyu front. The condition of high energy, saturation, potential instability is propitious to the form and maintenance of heavy rainfall. The result of numerical simulation by MM5 model shows that heavy .rainfall has close relation with meso-scale vortex pole and strong convection. Further research shows that the form of meso-scale vortex pole is relate to the coupling of upper and lower jet streams, and dry intrusion. Potential instability that exists with conditional symmetrical stability make the vertical ascend movement inθe big value area and slope ascend movement in θe surface (Meiyu front area) produce and maintain. Diagnoses of apparent heat source, apparent moist sink and helicity show that the severe h
eavy rainfall is related with them closely. Use radar and satellite data to improve initial humidity field and four dimensional variational data assimilation to improve initial wind field, and simulate it with MM5, which has improved the simulation ability of Meiyu heavy rainfall.
Based on NCEP and other observational datasets, two severe heavy rainfalls process occurred over Changjiang-Huaihe River basin during July, 2003 were primary investigated. The first diagnostic analyses show that the heavy rainfalls are produced together by vortex, shear line and upper and lower jets, Meiyu front. The condition of high energy, saturation, potential instability is propitious to the form and maintenance of heavy rainfall. The result of numerical simulation by MM5 model shows that heavy .rainfall has close relation with meso-scale vortex pole and strong convection. Further research shows that the form of meso-scale vortex pole is relate to the coupling of upper and lower jet streams, and dry intrusion. Potential instability that exists with conditional symmetrical stability make the vertical ascend movement inθe big value area and slope ascend movement in θe surface (Meiyu front area) produce and maintain. Diagnoses of apparent heat source, apparent moist sink and helicity show that the severe h
eavy rainfall is related with them closely. Use radar and satellite data to improve initial humidity field and four dimensional variational data assimilation to improve initial wind field, and simulate it with MM5, which has improved the simulation ability of Meiyu heavy rainfall.
引文
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[9] 徐晶，王东生，杨克明，2003年7月4—7日淮河流域特大暴雨等熵位涡分析，气象，2004，30(1)：33—37．
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[22] 散度变化在中尺度对流系统分析预报中之应用，气象，15(1)：3—8
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[38] Browning K A,Golding.B.W.Mesoscale aspects of a dry intrusion within a vigorous cycle.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc,1995.121:463-493.
[39] Ramamurthy etc.Structure and evolution of a tropopause fold during GALE IOP-1:an Eta model study .Meteo.and.Atmosphric Physics, 1994,53(3-4): 161-183
[40] 寿绍文．中尺度天气动力学，气象出版社，北京
[41] WuGuoxiong, Liu. Vertical vorticity development owng to down-sliding at slantwise isentropic surface.Dyn Atmos Oceans. 1997,27,715-743
[42] Luo H.-B.and M.Yanai,The large-scale circulation and heatsources over the Tibetan plateau and surrouding areas during the early summer of 1979.Part Ⅱ.Heat and moisture budgets,Mon.Wea.Rev. 111,966-989,1983
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[46] 孙淑清，翟国庆，高坤，梅雨期暴雨过程中高低空环流场耦合关系的分析与数值模拟，中国科学院大气物理研究所，东亚季风和中国暴雨，北京：气象出版社，327～336，1998
[47] Davies-Jones,R.,Streamwise vorticity:the origin of updraft rotation in suoercell storms.J.Atmos. Sci., 1984,41,2991-3006
[48] 俞樟孝等，一次高空急流中心引起的梅雨锋分析，杭州大学学报，1981，8(1)：104～112
[49] 斯公望，暴雨和强对流环流指数，北京：气象出版社，1987
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[52] Wang W and T T Warner,Use of four-dimensional data assimilation by Newtonian relaxation and latent heat forcing to improve a mesocale model precipitation.A case study.Men.Wee.Rev. 1988,116(12):2503-2613
[53] Turpeinnen O M.etcal,Diabatic initialization of Canadian Regional Figional Finite Element (RFE)model using satellite data .Mon.Wea.Rev.. 1990.118(7):1391-1407
[54] 孟智勇，徐祥德，陈联寿，“7．20”武汉特大暴雨的模拟试验，大气科学，2002,26(5)：664-676
[55] 马清云，李泽椿，陶士伟，单部多普勒天气雷达风场反演及其在数值预报中的应用试验，应用气象学报，2001，12(4)：488—493
[56] 托亚，梁海河，马淑芬，朱福康用雷达观测资料改进MM5初始场的初步试验研究，南京气象学院学报，2003,26(5)：661-667．
[57] 徐枝芳，徐玉貌，葛文忠，雷达和卫星资料在中尺度模式中的初步应用，气象科学，2002，22(2)：167-174
[58] 葛文忠，党人庆，江敦春，Application of radar and satellite data for numerical simulation of heavy rainfall．In：Intematicnal Symposium Asia Nagoya．Japan,Feb 2-4,1998,123-126
[59] 江吉喜，范梅珠，GMS_(BB)揭示的1998年长江大水的异常天气成因，南京气象学院学报，1999，22(3)：331—337
[60] Walcott S W,Warner T T.A humidity initialization utilizing surface and satellite data,Mon Wea Rev.1981,109(9):1989-1998
[61] 江敦春，党人庆，陈联寿，卫星资料在台风暴雨数值模拟中的应用，热带气象学报，1994，
10(4)：318-324
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[2] Ley B E and Peilter W R. Wave generation and frontal collapse. J A S, 1978, 35:3-17.
[3] Han-Ru Cho and Douglas S T, Chan. Meso-β-scale potential vorticity anomalies and rainbands, Part Ⅱ:Moist model simulation. J A Sci, 1991, Vol. 48(2):331-341.
[4] 王建中等，位涡在暴雨成因分析中的应用．应用气象学报，1996，Vol 7(1)：19-27
[5] 刘还珠，张绍晴．湿位涡与锋面强降水天气的三维结构．应用气象学报，1996，Vol13(1)：110-116．
[6] H C Davies and A M Rossa. PV frontogenesis and upper-tropospheric fronts. Mon Wea Rev, 198, Vol 126(6): 1528-1539.
[7] 田珍富等．一次局地大暴雨湿位涡的诊断分析．热带气象学报，1998，Vol 14(2)：163-172．
[8] 高守亭，雷霆，周玉淑，强暴雨系统中湿位涡异常的诊断分析，应用气象学报，2002年，13(6)：662—670．
[9] 徐晶，王东生，杨克明，2003年7月4—7日淮河流域特大暴雨等熵位涡分析，气象，2004，30(1)：33—37．
[10] 安洁，张立，暴雨过程中湿位涡的中尺度时空特征，气象科学，2004，24(1)：72—80．
[11] 王东生，康志明，杨克明，2003年淮河流域梅汛期首场大暴雨成因分析，气象，2004，30(1)：16—21．
[12] 薛峰．积云对流对ITCZ区域位涡的垂直输送．南京气象学院学报，1990，Vol 13(1)：110-116．
[13] 侯定臣．夏季江淮气旋的Ertel位涡分析．气象学报，1991，Vol 49(2)：141-149．
[14] Bennetts D A, Hoskins B J. Conditional symmetric instability---A possible explanation of frontal rainbands. Quart. J. Roy. Metor. Soc, 1979, 105, 945-962.
[15] Bennetts D A, Sharp J C. The relevance of conditional symmetric instability to the prediction of mesoscale frontal rainbands Quart j Roy. Meteor Soc, 1982, 108,595-602
[16] Xu Q. Conditional symmetric instability and mesoscale rainbands. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 1986, 112, 315-334
[17] Seman, C. J. Numerical study of nonlinear convective-symmetric instability in a rotating baroclinic atmosphere. Ph. D. thesis, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1991, 185
[18] Emanuel K A, On assessing local conditional symmetric instability from atmospheric soundings. Mon Wea rev, 1983, 111, 2016-2033.
[19] Emanuel K A. Frontal circulations in the presence of small moist symmetric stability. J Atmos Sci, 42,1062-1071.
[20] 景丽，陆汉城，大气中对称不稳定机制的动力学分析及暴雨的分析与预报，气象，2002，28(6)：23—27．
[21] 李耀辉，寿绍文，旋转风螺旋度及其在暴雨演变过程中的作用，南京气象学院学报，1999，22(1)：95—102．
[22] 散度变化在中尺度对流系统分析预报中之应用，气象，15(1)：3—8
[23] 省地气象台短期预报岗位培训教材，北京：气象出版社，1998：225．
[24] Hoskins, B. j., i. Draghici and H. C. Davies. A new look at the w-equation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 1978, 104:31～38.
[25] Davies-Jones, R. P., the Fronto genetical Forcing of secondary circulations. J. Atmos. Sci. 1991, 48: 497～509
[26] 张兴旺．湿Q欠量表达式及其应用．气象．1998,8：3-7
[27] 姚秀萍，于玉斌，完全Q矢量的引入及其诊断分析，高原气象，2001，20(2)：208—213．
[28] 岳彩军，寿绍文，林开平，姚秀萍，定量分析几种Q矢量，应用气象学报，2003，14(1)：39-47．
[29] 刘志雄，岳彩军，寿绍文，董美莹，应用湿Q矢量诊断梅雨锋暴雨，南京气象学院学报，2003，26(1)：102—110．
[30] Browning K A and Roberts N M .Structure of a frontal cyclone.Q J R Meteorol Soc 1994,120:1535-1557
[31] Wakimoto RM Blier W and Liu C. The frontal structure of an explosive oceanic cyclone:airborne radar observations of ERICA IOP-4.Mon.Weather Rev. 1992, 120:1135-1155.
[32] Browning K A. organization of clouds and precipitation in extratropical cyclones in Extratropical cyclones.Erick palmen Memorial volume. Am.Meteorol.Soc., Boston,Mass. 1990,Pp: 129-153
[33] Whitaker J S, Uccellini W and Brill K F. Amodel-based diagnostic study of the rapid development phase of the president's Day eyclone.Mon.Weather Rev.,1988,116:2337-2365.
[34] Browning K A and Monk G. A simple model for the synoptic analysis ofcold fronts.Q J Roy Meteorol Soc, 1982,108:435-452.
[35] Eliassen A and Kleinschmidt E.Dynamic meteorology.Berlin:Handbuch derPhysik 1957,112-129
[36] Reed R J and Sanders F.An investigation of the development of a mid-tropospheric frontal zone and its associated vorticity field,J Meteor, 1953,Vol 10(5):338-349.
[37] Hoskins B J,McIntyre M E and Robertson A W.On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps,Quart J R,Meteor Soc, 1985,Vol 111 (470): 877-946.
[38] Browning K A,Golding.B.W.Mesoscale aspects of a dry intrusion within a vigorous cycle.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc,1995.121:463-493.
[39] Ramamurthy etc.Structure and evolution of a tropopause fold during GALE IOP-1:an Eta model study .Meteo.and.Atmosphric Physics, 1994,53(3-4): 161-183
[40] 寿绍文．中尺度天气动力学，气象出版社，北京
[41] WuGuoxiong, Liu. Vertical vorticity development owng to down-sliding at slantwise isentropic surface.Dyn Atmos Oceans. 1997,27,715-743
[42] Luo H.-B.and M.Yanai,The large-scale circulation and heatsources over the Tibetan plateau and surrouding areas during the early summer of 1979.Part Ⅱ.Heat and moisture budgets,Mon.Wea.Rev. 111,966-989,1983
[43] M.yanai and Chengfeng Li,seasonal heating of the Tibetan plateau and its effects on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon,J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,70(1),319～351,1992
[44] 丁一汇，王笑芳．1983年长江中游梅雨期的热源和热汇分析．热带气象学报，1988，4(2)：134-145
[45] 陆尔，丁一汇，M．Murakami等．1991年江淮特大暴雨的降水性质与对流活动．气象学报，1997,55(3)：318-333
[46] 孙淑清，翟国庆，高坤，梅雨期暴雨过程中高低空环流场耦合关系的分析与数值模拟，中国科学院大气物理研究所，东亚季风和中国暴雨，北京：气象出版社，327～336，1998
[47] Davies-Jones,R.,Streamwise vorticity:the origin of updraft rotation in suoercell storms.J.Atmos. Sci., 1984,41,2991-3006
[48] 俞樟孝等，一次高空急流中心引起的梅雨锋分析，杭州大学学报，1981，8(1)：104～112
[49] 斯公望，暴雨和强对流环流指数，北京：气象出版社，1987
[50] Uccellini,L.W.and D.R.Johnson.The coupling of upper and lower troposphericjet streaks and implications for development of serve convective storms.Mon.Rev. 1979,107:682～703
[51] 徐海明，何金海，周兵．“倾斜”高空急流轴在大暴雨过程中的作用．南京气象学院学报，2001，24(2)：155-161
[52] Wang W and T T Warner,Use of four-dimensional data assimilation by Newtonian relaxation and latent heat forcing to improve a mesocale model precipitation.A case study.Men.Wee.Rev. 1988,116(12):2503-2613
[53] Turpeinnen O M.etcal,Diabatic initialization of Canadian Regional Figional Finite Element (RFE)model using satellite data .Mon.Wea.Rev.. 1990.118(7):1391-1407
[54] 孟智勇，徐祥德，陈联寿，“7．20”武汉特大暴雨的模拟试验，大气科学，2002,26(5)：664-676
[55] 马清云，李泽椿，陶士伟，单部多普勒天气雷达风场反演及其在数值预报中的应用试验，应用气象学报，2001，12(4)：488—493
[56] 托亚，梁海河，马淑芬，朱福康用雷达观测资料改进MM5初始场的初步试验研究，南京气象学院学报，2003,26(5)：661-667．
[57] 徐枝芳，徐玉貌，葛文忠，雷达和卫星资料在中尺度模式中的初步应用，气象科学，2002，22(2)：167-174
[58] 葛文忠，党人庆，江敦春，Application of radar and satellite data for numerical simulation of heavy rainfall．In：Intematicnal Symposium Asia Nagoya．Japan,Feb 2-4,1998,123-126
[59] 江吉喜，范梅珠，GMS_(BB)揭示的1998年长江大水的异常天气成因，南京气象学院学报，1999，22(3)：331—337
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