四川盆地降水日变化特征分析及成因研究
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摘要
数值模式对东亚降水日变化的模拟还存在很多困难，其中，中国西南四川盆地由于夜间降水较多，模式模拟具有很大的不确定性，一个原因是由于对该地区夜雨形成的认识还不足。降水日变化的模拟不仅涉及到模式中诸多的物理过程，还对模式物理过程有重要的调节和反馈作用。因此，能否真实模拟降水的日变化已是评估气候系统模式水平的一个重要方面。要改进现有模式，离不开对观测事实及其物理机制的深入理解。四川盆地以其独特的降水日变化特征给人们提供了一个很好的模式检验平台。但是以往的降水日变化研究大多都只针对夏季，缺乏对其它季节的了解。基于上述原因，本论文围绕中国西南四川盆地的降水日变化特征和影响机制以及模式对该地区降水日变化的模拟能力进行了分析。论文首先利用高时空分辨率的融合降水资料分析了四川盆地各季节的降水日变化特征，然后利用ERA-Interim再分析资料，从中国西南复杂地形对大气的动力和热力影响的角度出发，分析了盆地的夜雨产生机制。之后，对CMIP5各模式对降水日变化及其影响机制的模拟能力进行了比较评估。论文主要结论有以下几点：
1.四川盆地的夜雨在全年各季节都存在，其中尤以春季和秋季的夜雨特征最显著，夜雨区分布范围最大。各季节盆地的降水日变化峰值出现时间都存在从西往东逐渐延迟的特征，在盆地西部的降水峰值常出现在前半夜，而盆地中东部的降水峰值常出现在后半夜。峰值出现在前半夜的降水强度较强，而峰值出现在后半夜的降水强度偏小，可能与降水类型的不同有关。
2.中国西南复杂地形对盆地的降水日变化有着重要影响。盆地西部的降水峰值多出现在前半夜主要是由于青藏高原及其东侧坡面在前半夜产生的上升运动较强有利于对流产生。而盆地中东部的降水峰值多出现在后半夜主要是由三个原因共同作用形成：一是低层对流层的西南气流在后半夜的增强，该西南气流在绕过云贵高原东南侧后进入盆地，形成一个正涡旋，利于上升运动，同时该气流携带大量水汽进入盆地，利于降水。二是沿高原东坡的下沉气流在盆地低空，遇到西南暖湿气流输送在盆地低空形成的质量堆积，从而在盆地低空产生绝热增温。三是后半夜从高原来的冷平流在盆地上空中层形成的降温。所有这些因素都有利于后半夜盆地中东部的中低层大气不稳定增强，从而有利于降水形成。
3.各模式基本都能模拟出总降水气候态分布，高分辨率模式和中等分辨率模式在对降水气候态的模拟水平上没有显著差距。但不同模式对对流性降水和大尺度降水的模拟存在差异。
4.大部分模式模拟的白天和夜间降水强度和频率都存在显著的海陆差异，海洋上的夜间降水强度和频率都普遍高于白天，但大陆降水的差异较大。模式对降水日变化峰值的模拟水平与模式分辨率有显著关系，高分辨率模式对东亚地区降水日变化的模拟能力明显较好。大部分模式模拟的大尺度降水日变化表现较为一致，并且都较好地表现出了四川盆地的降水日变化特征。与其它模式相比，BCC-CSM1-1-m和BCC-CSM1-1模拟的大陆地区夜雨过多与夜间对流降水强度过强、大尺度降水过于频繁有关，初步数值模拟分析表明，对流性降水过强可能与对流参数化方案的云水转化率偏大有关。
5.由于中国西南地形复杂，因而模式对四川盆地降水日变化物理机制的准确表现依赖于模式地形的准确描述。高分辨率模式对影响四川盆地降水日变化物理机制的模拟要好于中低分辨率模式。模式能否模拟出高原背风坡深厚的正相对涡度中心，与风场的模拟密切相关。高分辨率模式凭借较为精确的模式地形，能够模拟出高原背风坡的深厚的正向涡旋中心和垂直上升运动以及盆地中水汽日变化的东西不一致性。但中低分辨率模式的表现较差。不同分辨率模式对高原热力性质的模拟都较为一致，所有模式都表现出了一致的高原温度日变化特征，以及受高原热力性质变化所引起的垂直环流日变化。
Up to now, climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation inthe East Asia, especially in the Sichuan Basin in the southwestern China, where it has moreprecipitation at night. One important reason is lacking of comprehension of nocturnal precipitation.The simulation of diurnal cycle of precipitation is related to many physical processes described inmodel, and also plays an important role in modulation and feedback for the physical processes.Nowadays, the diurnal cycle of precipitation have been paid more and more attention to and havebecome one of the most important aspects for evaluating model’s simulation ability. A good dealof insight into the observation and physical mechanism can not be ignored for improving theprevious model. The Sichuan Basin supplies a good evaluation platform for models, because of itsspecial diurnal cycle of precipitation. However, most of the previous works only focused on thediurnal cycle of summertime precipitation in the Basin, lacking the understanding in other seasons.In this paper, we expand the study on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin to thewhole year. The characteristics of diurnal precipitation cycle and its causes have been studied.Firstly, high spatial-and temporal-resolution precipitation dataset was used to analyze tocharacteristics of diurnal precipitation cycle in four seasons. Secondly, using ERA-Interimreanalyzed data, the mechanism behind the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin wasexplored from the aspect of dynamical and thermal-dynamical effect caused by the complicatedtopography in the southwestern China. Thirdly, the abilities of CMIP5models for simulating thecharacteristics and mechanism of diurnal cycle of precipitation have been compared and evaluated.The main conclusions are as follows:
1. The nocturnal precipitation has a specific quasi-stationary feature in the basin. It occurs in allseasons, especially in spring and autumn with the most remarkable nocturnal peak and the largestarea. There is a prominent eastward timing delay in the nocturnal precipitation, that is, the diurnalpeak of precipitation occurs at early-night in the western basin whereas at late-night in the centerand east of the basin. The intensity of the early-night peak precipitation is bigger than that of thelate-night peak precipitation, which may be related to different type of precipitation.
2. The complicated topography in the southwestern China plays an essential role in the formationof this quasi-stationary nocturnal precipitation. The early-night peak of precipitation in the westernbasin is largely due to strong ascending over the plateau and its eastern lee side. In the central andeastern basin, three coexisting factors contribute to the late-night peak of precipitation. One is thelower-tropospheric southwesterly flow around the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, whichcreates a strong cyclonic rotation and ascendance in the basin at late-night, as well as bringsabundant water vapor. The second is the descending motion downslope along the eastern lee sideof the plateau, together with an air mass accumulation caused by the warmer air mass transport from the southeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, creating a diabatic warming at low level of thetroposphere in the central basin. The third is a cold advection from the plateau to the basin atlate-night, which leads to a cooling in the middle troposphere over the central basin. All thesefactors are responsible for precipitation to occur at late-night in the central to eastern basin.
3. Most of the CMIP5models have a good ability to present the total precipitation. There is nowide gap between the high and middle resolution models. But the simulations of different types ofprecipitation are very different among these models.
4. The main differentiators of all models lie in the simulation of diurnal cycle of precipitation. Thesimulation ability of diurnal cycle of precipitation is closely related to the resolution. Highresolution shows an obviously better simulation than other models. Most of the models present agood correspondence in the simulation of diurnal variation of large-scale precipitation. Thesimulation of diurnal cycle of total precipitation depends on that of the convection. The convectiveprecipitation simulated by BCC-CSM1-1-m and BCC-CSM1-1are excessively more than othermodels, which may be related to the excessive convective precipitation and frequent large-scaleprecipitation. Preliminary analysis shows that the excessive convective precipitation may becaused by the cloud-water conversion rate of the convection parameterization.
5. Because of the complicated topography, the presentation of physical mechanism behind thediurnal cycle of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin relies on the accuracy of topography describedin each model. The simulation of cyclonical vorticity at the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau isrelated to the simulation of wind field. High resolution models are able to simulate not only thethick cyclonical vorticity center and ascending motion at the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau, butalso the different diurnal cycles of water vapor between western and eastern basin, which can notbe represented by the middle and low resolution models as the poor description of the concavebasin. However, all models can exhibit the thermal characteristics of Tibetan Plateau and itscorresponding vertical circulation in the lee side of the Plateau.
1.四川盆地的夜雨在全年各季节都存在，其中尤以春季和秋季的夜雨特征最显著，夜雨区分布范围最大。各季节盆地的降水日变化峰值出现时间都存在从西往东逐渐延迟的特征，在盆地西部的降水峰值常出现在前半夜，而盆地中东部的降水峰值常出现在后半夜。峰值出现在前半夜的降水强度较强，而峰值出现在后半夜的降水强度偏小，可能与降水类型的不同有关。
2.中国西南复杂地形对盆地的降水日变化有着重要影响。盆地西部的降水峰值多出现在前半夜主要是由于青藏高原及其东侧坡面在前半夜产生的上升运动较强有利于对流产生。而盆地中东部的降水峰值多出现在后半夜主要是由三个原因共同作用形成：一是低层对流层的西南气流在后半夜的增强，该西南气流在绕过云贵高原东南侧后进入盆地，形成一个正涡旋，利于上升运动，同时该气流携带大量水汽进入盆地，利于降水。二是沿高原东坡的下沉气流在盆地低空，遇到西南暖湿气流输送在盆地低空形成的质量堆积，从而在盆地低空产生绝热增温。三是后半夜从高原来的冷平流在盆地上空中层形成的降温。所有这些因素都有利于后半夜盆地中东部的中低层大气不稳定增强，从而有利于降水形成。
3.各模式基本都能模拟出总降水气候态分布，高分辨率模式和中等分辨率模式在对降水气候态的模拟水平上没有显著差距。但不同模式对对流性降水和大尺度降水的模拟存在差异。
4.大部分模式模拟的白天和夜间降水强度和频率都存在显著的海陆差异，海洋上的夜间降水强度和频率都普遍高于白天，但大陆降水的差异较大。模式对降水日变化峰值的模拟水平与模式分辨率有显著关系，高分辨率模式对东亚地区降水日变化的模拟能力明显较好。大部分模式模拟的大尺度降水日变化表现较为一致，并且都较好地表现出了四川盆地的降水日变化特征。与其它模式相比，BCC-CSM1-1-m和BCC-CSM1-1模拟的大陆地区夜雨过多与夜间对流降水强度过强、大尺度降水过于频繁有关，初步数值模拟分析表明，对流性降水过强可能与对流参数化方案的云水转化率偏大有关。
5.由于中国西南地形复杂，因而模式对四川盆地降水日变化物理机制的准确表现依赖于模式地形的准确描述。高分辨率模式对影响四川盆地降水日变化物理机制的模拟要好于中低分辨率模式。模式能否模拟出高原背风坡深厚的正相对涡度中心，与风场的模拟密切相关。高分辨率模式凭借较为精确的模式地形，能够模拟出高原背风坡的深厚的正向涡旋中心和垂直上升运动以及盆地中水汽日变化的东西不一致性。但中低分辨率模式的表现较差。不同分辨率模式对高原热力性质的模拟都较为一致，所有模式都表现出了一致的高原温度日变化特征，以及受高原热力性质变化所引起的垂直环流日变化。
Up to now, climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation inthe East Asia, especially in the Sichuan Basin in the southwestern China, where it has moreprecipitation at night. One important reason is lacking of comprehension of nocturnal precipitation.The simulation of diurnal cycle of precipitation is related to many physical processes described inmodel, and also plays an important role in modulation and feedback for the physical processes.Nowadays, the diurnal cycle of precipitation have been paid more and more attention to and havebecome one of the most important aspects for evaluating model’s simulation ability. A good dealof insight into the observation and physical mechanism can not be ignored for improving theprevious model. The Sichuan Basin supplies a good evaluation platform for models, because of itsspecial diurnal cycle of precipitation. However, most of the previous works only focused on thediurnal cycle of summertime precipitation in the Basin, lacking the understanding in other seasons.In this paper, we expand the study on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin to thewhole year. The characteristics of diurnal precipitation cycle and its causes have been studied.Firstly, high spatial-and temporal-resolution precipitation dataset was used to analyze tocharacteristics of diurnal precipitation cycle in four seasons. Secondly, using ERA-Interimreanalyzed data, the mechanism behind the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin wasexplored from the aspect of dynamical and thermal-dynamical effect caused by the complicatedtopography in the southwestern China. Thirdly, the abilities of CMIP5models for simulating thecharacteristics and mechanism of diurnal cycle of precipitation have been compared and evaluated.The main conclusions are as follows:
1. The nocturnal precipitation has a specific quasi-stationary feature in the basin. It occurs in allseasons, especially in spring and autumn with the most remarkable nocturnal peak and the largestarea. There is a prominent eastward timing delay in the nocturnal precipitation, that is, the diurnalpeak of precipitation occurs at early-night in the western basin whereas at late-night in the centerand east of the basin. The intensity of the early-night peak precipitation is bigger than that of thelate-night peak precipitation, which may be related to different type of precipitation.
2. The complicated topography in the southwestern China plays an essential role in the formationof this quasi-stationary nocturnal precipitation. The early-night peak of precipitation in the westernbasin is largely due to strong ascending over the plateau and its eastern lee side. In the central andeastern basin, three coexisting factors contribute to the late-night peak of precipitation. One is thelower-tropospheric southwesterly flow around the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, whichcreates a strong cyclonic rotation and ascendance in the basin at late-night, as well as bringsabundant water vapor. The second is the descending motion downslope along the eastern lee sideof the plateau, together with an air mass accumulation caused by the warmer air mass transport from the southeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, creating a diabatic warming at low level of thetroposphere in the central basin. The third is a cold advection from the plateau to the basin atlate-night, which leads to a cooling in the middle troposphere over the central basin. All thesefactors are responsible for precipitation to occur at late-night in the central to eastern basin.
3. Most of the CMIP5models have a good ability to present the total precipitation. There is nowide gap between the high and middle resolution models. But the simulations of different types ofprecipitation are very different among these models.
4. The main differentiators of all models lie in the simulation of diurnal cycle of precipitation. Thesimulation ability of diurnal cycle of precipitation is closely related to the resolution. Highresolution shows an obviously better simulation than other models. Most of the models present agood correspondence in the simulation of diurnal variation of large-scale precipitation. Thesimulation of diurnal cycle of total precipitation depends on that of the convection. The convectiveprecipitation simulated by BCC-CSM1-1-m and BCC-CSM1-1are excessively more than othermodels, which may be related to the excessive convective precipitation and frequent large-scaleprecipitation. Preliminary analysis shows that the excessive convective precipitation may becaused by the cloud-water conversion rate of the convection parameterization.
5. Because of the complicated topography, the presentation of physical mechanism behind thediurnal cycle of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin relies on the accuracy of topography describedin each model. The simulation of cyclonical vorticity at the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau isrelated to the simulation of wind field. High resolution models are able to simulate not only thethick cyclonical vorticity center and ascending motion at the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau, butalso the different diurnal cycles of water vapor between western and eastern basin, which can notbe represented by the middle and low resolution models as the poor description of the concavebasin. However, all models can exhibit the thermal characteristics of Tibetan Plateau and itscorresponding vertical circulation in the lee side of the Plateau.
引文
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