模块化对产业组织演进的影响
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摘要
自20世纪60年代美国计算机产业全面引入模块化以来,模块化对产业组织演进产生了深远的影响。在引入模块化的产业中,企业出现纵向分离化特征,企业间网络快速发展,产品价格下降,数量增长而品质不断提高,创新活动频繁,产业迅速发展壮大,极大地促进了经济增长。模块化首先产生于设计领域,通过模块化所带来的结构创新,引发复杂产品系统技术演进出现双条路径,伴随分工演进专业化程度提高而产品系统整体分工复杂性降低,进而企业在边界的调整过程中,出现行为的变化与策略的调整,形成基于创新竞争的多样化市场结构,并创造出独特的产业演变路径。
     对于复杂装配产品系统,模块化是一种能够把复杂系统简单化的处理方法,即按照既定的规则和标准把一个复杂产品系统分割为若干独立子系统,或者把若干子模块系统集成为产品系统,使得子模块群与整机产品系统分别并行演进。这里的子模块本身也是一个复杂系统,而非简单的零件或个体。
     技术创新引导产业演进。模块化带来复杂产品系统结构创新,促进了产业技术演进。模块化使产业技术演进形成复杂产品整机系统与子模块群两条路径的双向并行演进,并创造出一个活跃的开放式创新系统,便利了企业内创新的流出和企业外创新的流入,增加了社会创新总量。以美国计算机产业为例,美国计算机产业技术演进从产品创新开始,继而通过模块化结构创新进入双条技术演进路径。复杂产品系统路径的创新开始主要为渐进式创新,而子模块群路径的创新则随模块群数量的快速增长,各种突破式与渐进式创新不断涌现。某些核心子模块的重大创新带来新产品系统的产生,之后产业技术范式沿新产品系统路径演进。子模块群继续扩展,创新活跃,将继续围绕子模块的重大创新出现新产品系统,且技术向相关产业扩散。
     模块化促进了分工演进,使复杂产品系统的分工专业化程度提高而复杂性降低。模块化系统中形成资本与创新的分工、设计与生产的分工等新分工模式,并出现三层分工体系:基于复杂产品系统的设计规则、子模块群与系统集成与检测的分工、基于子模块群的不同模块之间的分工以及模块内部的分工。模块化可以促进市场规模扩张,提高交易效率,降低分工协调成本,促进知识进展,从而促进分工演进。由分工专业化所产生的比较优势,称为分工经济。当复杂产品系统引入新模块之后,系统内部存在由新旧模块更替所导致的替代与互补效应。模块化结构系统与关联式结构系统所产生的替代与互补效应不同,模块化系统的互补效应较强而替代效应较弱,而关联式系统则刚好相反,模块化系统中两种效直的综合效果要优于关联式结构系统。分工演进可以表现为中间产品种类和数量的增长以及产业中整机产品系统及主要模块的数量增长。
     模块化影响企业边界的调整,促进了企业间网络的形成。引入模块化的复杂产品系统倾向于纵向分离化。模块化降低了技术交易成本与市场交易成本。技术交易成本的降低使模块产品可以脱离复杂产品系统独立存在,而市场交易成本的降低则推动了企业的纵向分离。同时,风险资本制度可以为模块产品企业降低市场进入资本壁垒,由此促进了企业组织的模块化。模块化可提供较好的产品系统柔性,造就企业核心竞争能力,形成企业内生比较优势,增强模块企业的长期竞争力。组织的模块化为企业间网络的出现奠定了基础。企业规模与企业边界不同。在模块化模式中,模块本身的技术属性决定了模块资产专用性水平相对较低,利用市场的生产与交换成本较之一体化企业而言一般要低,故对于大部分通用模块的设计与生产,一般分散在众多不同的企业中,而小部分专用模块的设计与生产则相对集中于企业内部。产业呈现纵向分离化。
     模块化对市场结构、行为与绩效产生影响。首先,在模块化模式中,企业间竞争主要围绕产品创新过程展开。在位厂商在产品创新过程中受到资源转换成本的影响,存在代际范围经济优势。在位厂商在产品创新中并不具有绝对优势地位。模块化模式下产业的进入壁垒相对较低,新厂商可以采取产品创新进入、模仿创新进入及利用分裂性技术进入等方式,在位厂商将采取不同对策。创新技能、模块化程度、沉没成本及市场环境等因素影响新厂商进入。其次,模块化系统的技术特征影响到企业行为。模块化创造的开放式创新环境,使身处其中的企业处于一个特定的生态系统中,企业的成功取决于能否成为生态系统的主导角色,企业之间以合作竞争代替了传统的单纯竞争关系,企业为了获利有时需要无偿付出。企业之间的创新竞赛表现为重复创新竞争,以及“不求最好,但求最快”或“拿来主义”的技术快速市场化。在以模块化为特征的产业中,核心模块市场结构趋于竞争性垄断,而一般模块市场则属于垄断性竞争市场。以模块化为特征的产业表现出明显的垂直分离化特征,且网络特征明显。第三,模块化带来良好的市场绩效。伴随激烈的创新竞赛和企业的分散化,使得在以模块化为特征的产业中,产品价格快速下降,而产品数量与质量不断提高,中间产品数量不断增加,技术进步速度加快,对经济增长产生较大的促进作用,并对整个社会生产与生活方式的改变产生影响。
     模块化促进了产业演进,并形成不断上升的阶段性递进产业演进路径。以美国计算机产业为例,作为高技术密集度的产业,美国计算机产业自引入模块化之后便创造出一条独特的演变路径。技术、市场需求、产品系统的结构创新、政府支持及核心企业惯例影响产业形成与发展。在模块化产业中,技术与产业协同演进,形成子模块群与产品系统两级独立的市场,两级市场互相促进,互相影响,共同演进。在产业形成初期,产品市场集中度较高。伴随模块化的出现,市场集中度一度再度提高,之后很快由于模块企业的大量加入而使集中度下降,部分核心模块集中度则不断上升。模块层面的分散创新带来产品创新的出现,核心模块市场再度震荡,形成新的集中与分散局面,之后产品集成与装配市场则趋于分散,部分核心模块技术向外部扩散,技术外溢引发新的进入,进而使核心模块市场集中度开始下降。在引入模块化的产业演进过程中,产业成长表现出不断上升的阶段性递进特征。在模块化产品产生之后,围绕整机产品与子模块群,市场进入与退出异常活跃,产业获得快速成长。之后随整机产品的日益成熟产业增长放缓,随后核心模块技术的不断突破带来新产品系统的不断诞生,并引发大量新模块的快速出现,产业获得新一轮快速增长,由此导致产业递进式快速增长,使产业发展日益庞大,并向相关产业渗透,从而延长了产业的上升发展阶段。
Modularity has exerted great influence on the evolution of industrial organization since it was fully introduced into the U.S. computer industry in 1960's. In a modularity industry, corporate organization tends to decentralized, and interfirm network develops quickly. In the meantime, the price of products is dropping while their quantities are increasing and innovation is getting more and more. As a result. the industry expands quickly and stimulates economic growth greatly. Modularity appeared firstly in product design. Technology evolution of complex product system shows two paths through structure innovation by modularity. As a result, the degree of specialization is rising while complexity based on division is falling. Then firm behavior changes in the process of adjusting its boundary Diversified market structure is taking shape based on innovation competition, and a special "industrial evolution path appears.
     Modularity is a method of simplifying complex product system. A complex product system could be disassembled by design rules or standards, or some modules could be integrated into product system. In a modular system, modules and final product evolves respectively and simultaneously. The modules here are not simple parts or individual units but complex system.
     Technology innovation guides industrial evolution. Industrial technology evolution is propelled by complex product structure innovation, which was introduced by modularity. A bilateral technology evolution path was formed and evolves simultaneously in complex product system after modularity was introduced. In the meantime, an active open innovation system is forming. And then innovation inside or outside a firm could outflow or inflow conveniently, so innovation quantities in a society increase greatly. As an example, the technology evolution in the U. S. computer industry started from product innovation, and then got into a bilateral technology evolution path. Complex product system innovation began with process innovation, while modules innovation was filled with a lot of product innovation and process innovation with the increase of modules quantities. After that, important innovation of some core modules brought about a new product system, and then industrial technology paradigm evolved along new product system path. Modules cluster expanded and more innovation emerged. Moreover, new product systems based on important innovation of modules would spring up, while technologies would spread to other related industry.
     Modularity advances evolution of division. It could enhance the degree of specialization in a complex product system, while reduce the complexity of division. In a modular system division style was formed between capital and innovation, design and production. Three layer divisions are took shape as follows, design rules and modules, system integration and tests in the first layer, division among modules in the second layer and division inside modules in the third layer. Modularity could play an important role in expanding market scale, increasing transaction efficiency, reducing the division of coordination cost and advancing knowledge development. As a result. the evolution of division develops. Economies of division refer to comparative advantages by division and specialization. Substitution and complementation effects exist in a modularity system by the substitution between the new and old modules, and they are diverse between a modular system and an integration system. In a modular system complementation effects are stronger than in an integration system, while substitution effects are weaker. Therefore the total effects in a modular system are better than in an integration system. Evolution of division could be expressed as the increase of quantities and kinds of intermediate goods, the final products and main modules.
     Modularity has an influence on the adjustment of firm boundary and promotes the development of interfirm networks. The modular complex product system tends to vertical disintegration. Modularity reduces the technological and market transaction cost. The decrease of technological transaction cost could help the modules exist independently in the market, while the decrease of market transaction cost could make decentralization of the firms. In the mean time, venture capital plays a vital role in the foundation of such firms, which could cut down the capital entry barrier. Modularity could provide flexibility to product system, which forms corporate core competence and endogenous comparative advantage. Hence corporate capability was enhanced in the long-term. Modularity in organization gives play in the development of interfirm network. Firm scale is different from firm boundary. Relative lower asset specificity level of a module is depended by its technological attribute. Market exchange serves to attenuate the production and transaction costs comparing to internal exchange in a corporation. Therefore, the design and production of most of modules disperse in varies firms, while other specific modules may be organized in one corporation with its correlated modules. As a result, the industry tends to decentralized.
     Modularity affects market structure, conduct and performance. In the first place. interfirm competition dwells mainly around product innovation. Incumbent firms will be influenced by resource transaction costs, and have an advantages on inter-temporal economies of scope. So the incumbent firms do not have an absolute advantage in the process of innovation. Barriers to industrial entry under modularity are relatively lower. Entrants could enter into a market by product innovation, imitation innovation or taking advantage of disruptive technology, while the incumbents would reacts in different ways. In addition, innovation techniques, modularity level, sunk cost and market environment influent the entrants. Secondly, the technology characteristics of a modular system has an impact on firm behavior. The open innovation background by modularity makes firms into an ecological system. Consequently the success of a firm depends heavily on if it could act as a leading role in the system. Cooperation and competition between firms replaces traditional competition. Sometimes firms need to pay the price freely in order to make a profit. Moreover, the innovation contests among firms exhibit repeated, "fastest-not-best" and "capture-in-use" character in order to get market share quickly. In the end. the core modules market shows competitive monopolization, while other modules market reveals monopolistic competition in a modularity industry. The modularity industry also exhibits a distinct disintegration and network character. Thirdly, favorable market performance could be got through modularity. Accompanied by keen innovation competition and firms scattering, prices are cutting down, while product quantities are increasing and qualities are improving greatly. In the meantime, the speed of technology innovation is accelerating. So modularity could play an important role in economic growth, and could influent the production and life styles.
     Modularity forwards industry evolution. It brought about a continuous rising industry evolution path in stages. For example, as a high-tech intensified industry, it shows a specific evolution path in the U.S. computer industry since modularity was introduced. Industry creating and developing are influenced by technology, market demand, structure innovation in a product system, government support and the routine of core firms. Technology coevolves with industry in a modularity industry. Consequently, a two-stage market reveals as modules and products market, which promotes and influents each other. The concentration in product market seems high in the early industry. Then it becomes higher with the emergence of modularity. After that it will decline due to a great deal entrants enter into market. On the contrary, the concentration in core modules market rises constantly. Decentralized innovation among modules leads to new product innovation, which makes the market of modules vibrate again. Then a new concentration or decentralization situation appears. After that the product assembly market will tend to decentralized. As a result, technology of core modules will proliferate outside, which brings forth new entry. Hence the core modules market concentration falls down subsequently. The industry growth reveals a character as rising by stages constantly. After the introduction of the first modularity product, the industry develops quickly since the market entry and exit take place frequently. Then it grows slowly with the product grows mature. After that, the breakthrough of core modules technology brings about the emergence of new product system, more and more new modules appear. In the end, the industry development could be accelerates continually. Therefore such industry expands day after day. and proliferates to related industries. As a result, the rising stage of the industry is prolonged.
引文
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    [2]青木昌彦,安藤晴彦,模块时代:新产业结构的本质[M],上海远东出版社,2003
    [2]大卫·安德森,约瑟夫.派恩二世,21世纪企业竞争前沿:大规模定制模式下的敏捷产品开发[M].机械工业出版社,1999
    [4]徐宏玲,模块化组织研究,[M],西南财经大学出版社,2006
    [1]Baldwin.C.Y..Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1.The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA.
    [1]http://www.snet.gov.cn/report/info.php?id=2802006—2007年美国信息产业发展研究年度报告
    [1]Baldwin.C.Y.,Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1.The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA.
    [1]盛昭瀚,蒋德鹏,演化经济学[M],上海三联书店,2002.4
    [2]库尔特.多普菲,演化经济学:纲领与范围[M],高等教育出版社,2004
    [1]Baldwin,C.Y..Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1.The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA.
    [2]Nelson.R.,Winter.S.(1982).An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change[M].Harvard University Press.Cambridge.MA.
    [3]Baldwin.C.Y..Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1,The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA.
    [4]同上。
    [1]陈厚云,王行刚,计算机发展简史[M].科学出版社,1985
    [1]陈厚云,王行刚,计算机发展简史[M],科学出版社,1985
    [2]Baldwin,C.Y.,Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1,The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA.
    [1]陈厚云,王行刚,计算机发晨简史[M],科学出版社,1985
    [2]资料来源:http//www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_cinuse.htm
    [1]库尔特.多警菲,演化经济学:纲领与范围[M],高等教育出版社,2004
    [1]杨小凯,黄有光,专业化与经济组织——一种新兴古典微观经济框架[M],经济科学出版社,1999
    [1]Sanchez.R..Mahoney.J.T.(1996).Modularity.Flexibility.and Knowledge Management in Product and Organization Design[J].Strategic Management Journal.17:63-76
    [2]胡晓鹏,从分工到模块化:经济系统演进的思考[J],中国工业经济,2004.9
    [3]朱瑞博,价值模块整合与产业融合[J],中国工业经济,2003.8
    [3]Simon.H.A.(1962).The Architecture of Complexity[J].Proceedings of The American Philosophical Society.106(6):467-482
    [1]Brusoni.S..Prencipe.A..Pavitt.K.(2001).Knowledge Specialization.Organizational Coupling.and the Boundaries of the Firm:Why Do Firms Know More Than They Make?[J].Administrative Science Quarterly.46:597-621.
    [2]白雪洁,倚析企业分工的新趋势[J],天津社会科学,2005.4
    [3]Baldwin,C.Y.,Clark,K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1.The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA
    [1]杨小凯,黄有光.专业化与经济组织——一种新兴古典微观经济框架[M],经济科学出版社,1999
    [2]Young.A.(1928).Increasing Returns and Economic Progress[J].The Economic Journal.38:527-542
    [1]杨小凯,黄有光,专业化与经济组织——一种新兴古典微观经济框架[M].经济科学出版社.1999
    [1]杨小凯,黄有光,专业化与经济组织——一种新兴古典微观经济框架[M],经济科学出版社,1999
    [1]Becker.G.S..Murphy.K.M.(1992).The Division of Labor.Coordination Costs.and Knowledge[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.CⅦ:1137-1160.
    [1]杨小凯,黄有光,专业化与经济组织——一种新兴古典微观经济框架[M],经济科学出版社,1999
    [1]Grossman.G.,Helpman,E.(1991).Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth[J].Review of Economic Studies. LⅧ:43-61.
    Aghion.P..Howitt.P.(1992).A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction[J].Econometrice.LⅩ:325-51.
    [1]Romer.P.M.(1987).Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization[J].AmericanEconomic Review.77(2):56-62.
    [2]杨小凯,黄有光,专业化与经济组织——一种新兴古典微观经济框架[M],经济科学出版社,1999
    [1]从1998年以后的数据采用了NAICS标准6位数字,之前采用SIC4位数字标准3571,故在作图时分做两部分,1977-1997一段,根据SIC标准3571;1998-2005一段,根据NAICS标准334111。
    [1]杨小凯,黄有光,专业化与经济组织——一种新兴古典微观经济框架[M],经济科学出版社,1999
    [2]泰勒尔,产业组织理论[M],中国人民大学出版社,1997
    [3]曾楚宏,林丹明,论企业边界的两重性[J],中国工业经济,2005.10
    [1]杨瑞龙,杨其静,企业理论:现代观点[M],中国人民大学出版社,2005
    [2]Prahalad.C..Hamel.G.(1990).The Core Competence of the Corporation[J].Harvard Business Review.68(3):79-91
    [3]刘刚,企业的异质性假设[M],中国人民大学出版社,2005
    [4]Teece.D.G.David.J.,Pisano.G.(1994).The Dynamic Capabilities of Firms:An Introduction[J].Industrial and Corporate Change.3(3):537-556
    [1]曾楚宏.林丹明,论企业边界的两重性[J],中国工业经济,2005.10
    [2]刘东,企业边界的多种变化及其原因[J],中国工业经济,2005.3
    [3]李海舰,聂辉华,论企业与市场的相互融合[J],中国工业经济,2004.8李海舰,原磊,论无边界企业[J],中国工业经济,2005.4
    [4]余东华,芮明杰,模块化、企业价值网络与企业边界变动[J].中国工业经济,2005.10
    [1]Grant R.M.(1996).Towards a Konwledge-based Theory of the Firm[J].Strategic Management Journal.17:109-122.
    [2]Baldwin.C.Y..Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1.The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA.
    [1]Sturgeon.T.J.(2002).Modular Production networks:a new American Model of industrial organization[J]Industrial and Corporate Change.11(3):451-496.
    [1]Angel.D.P..Engstrom.J.(1995).Manufacturing systems and technological change:the US personal computer industry[J].Economic Geography.71:27-54
    [1]Langlois.R.N.Robertson.P.(1992).Networks and Innovation in a Modular System:Lesson from Microcomputer and Stereo Components Industries[J].Rosearch Policy.21(4):11-23.
    [2]Baldwin.C.Y..Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1.The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA
    [1]Sturgeon.T.J.(2002).Modular Production networks:a new American Model of industrial organization[J].Industrial and Corporate Change.11(3):451-496
    [2]杨小凯,黄有光.专业化与经济组织——一种新兴古典微观经济框架[M],经济科学出版社,1999
    [1]资料来源:http://bbs.chnvc.com/showtree.aspx?postid=98900
    [2]资料来源:http://www.cnccnet.com/news/article3.asp?articleid=41363&classid=1
    [1]杨瑞龙,杨其静,企业理论:现代观点[M],中国人民大学出版社,2005
    [2]同上.
    [1]李海舰,原磊,论无边界企业[J],中国工业经济,2005.4
    [1]李海舰,原磊,论无边界企业[J],中国工业经济,2005.4
    [1]Williamson.O.(1985).The Economic Institutes of Capitalism:Firms.Markets.Relational Contracting[M].Macmillan:London
    [1]Sturgeon.T.J.(2002).Modular Production networks:a new American Model of industrial organization[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change.11(3):451-496
    [1]Baldwin.C.Y..Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1.The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA
    [1]Klepper,S.(1996).Entry.Exit.Growth,and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle[J],American Economic Review:86(3):562-583
    [2]Utterback.J.M.(1994).Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation[M].The President and Fellows of Harvard College.
    [1]Helfat.C.E..Eisenhardt.K.M.(2004).Inter-Temporal Economics of Scope.Organizational Modularity.and the Dynamics of Diversification[J].Strategic Management Journal.25:1217-1232
    [1]Sturgeon,T.J.(2002).Modular Production networks:a new American Model of industrial organization[J].Industrial and Corporate Change.11(3):451-496
    [1]资料来源:http://www.365bloglink.com/go.php?id=sqWLEdnHw
    [1]Baldwin.C.Y..Clark.K.B.(1997).Managing in an Age of Modularity[J].Harvard Business Review.(September-October) 75(5):84-93..
    [1]詹姆斯.马丁.生存之路——由计算机技术引发的全新经营革命[M],清华大学出版社,1997
    [1]资料来源:http://www.365bloglink.com/go.php?id=sqWLEdnHw
    [2]詹姆斯.马丁,生存之路——由计算机技术引发的全新经营革命[M],清华大学出版社,1997
    [1]詹姆斯.马丁,生存之路——由计算机技术引发的全新经营革命[M],清华大学出版社,1997
    [1]Baldwin,C.Y..Clark.K.B.(2000).Design Rules.Volume 1.The Power of Modularity[M].MIT Press.Cambridge MA.
    [2]青木昌彦,安藤晴彦,模块时代:新产业结构的本质[M],上海远东出版社,2003
    [1]Baldwin.C.Y..Clark.K.B.(1997).Managing in an Age of Modularity[J].Harvard Business Review.(September-October) 75(5):84-93.
    [2]2003年第二季度数据。
    [3]2004年第二季度数据。
    [4]2007年第三季度数据。
    [1]表中所列数据有年度数据,也有季度数据,但不影响CR4变动趋势。
    [2]詹姆斯.马丁,生存之路——由计算机技术引发的全新经营革命[M],清华大学出版社,1997
    [1]Market Share Reporter 2005.Thomson Gale.2004.1
    [2]杨公朴、夏大慰,产业经济学教程[M],上海财经大学出版社,2002
    [3]资料来源:根据“Market Share Reporter 2005.Thomson Gale.2004.1”有关数据计算整理而得。
    [1]微软可信赖计算部门安全战略主管Jeff Jones于2007年底公布了一份《Web浏览器漏洞分析报告》.该报告对IE和Firefox的漏洞数量和严重程度进行了对比,认为在过去的三年间,微软共修复了IE浏览器(各 个支持版本)87处漏洞,而Mozilla则修复了199处Firefox漏洞。此外,在漏洞的严重程度上(高、中、低),IE浏览器每一档次的安全漏洞数量都低于Firefox。(资料来源:http://tech.163.com/07/1201/10/3UKC182N000915BD.html)
    [1]资料来源:根据“Market Share Reporter 2005.Thomson Gale.2004.1”有关数据计算整理而得.
    [2]杨公朴、夏大慰,产业经济学教程[M],上海财经大学出版社,2002
    [1]资料来源:http://www.hqew.com/info/newshtm/2003106171034246815_1.htm
    [1]李怀,高良谋.新经济的冲击与竞争性垄断市场结构的出现:观察微软案例的一个理论框架[J],经济研究,2001.10
    [1]如果企业原有的技术已经成为行业的领先者,则容易陷入技术创新路径依赖,即相信自己始终是最好的,或者止步不前,或者对潜在技术创新成胁视而不见.而加入企业网络之后,当网络中相关企业出现重大创新,则会迫使有关模块作出反应。如目前Intel、AMD等芯片制造商纷纷推出双核芯片,这便对操作系统等核心模块提出更高的要求,相关厂商也必须对此做出技术反应。
    [2]Baldwin.C.Y..Clark.K.B.(1997).Managing in an Age of Modularity[J].Harvard Business Review.(September-October) 75(5):84-93(September-October).
    [1]刘志彪,现代产业经济学[M],高等教育出版社,2003
    [1]陈厚云,王行刚,计算机发展简史[M],科学出版社,1985
    [2]同上。
    [1]资料来源:http//www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_cinuse.htm
    [1]分别是通用电气公司、美国电话电报公司、通用汽车公司、道格拉斯飞机公司和通用动力公司。
    [2]陈厚云,王行刚,计算机发展简史[M],科学出版社,1985
    [1]陈厚云,王行刚,计算机发展简史[M],科学出版社,1985
    [2]资料来源:根据www.census.gov相关资料整理而得.
    [3]Conada.J.W.(1993).The Computer in the United Slates:From Laboratory to Market.1930 to 1960[M].M.L.Sharpe Inc
    [1]详见第三章
    [2]陈厚云,王行刚,计算机发展简史[M],科学出版社,1985
    [1]隋广军等,产业演进及其微观基础研究[M],经济科学出版社,2007
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    [1]Ernst.D.(2004).Limits to Modularity[R].Working Paper
    [1]www.chinatorch.gov.cn/dtxw/dtxw_News_info_24560.aspx-8k-
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