城市群中核心城市对外交通发展规划研究
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摘要
城市群作为体现城市化发展水平的高级形式,在我国已经受到了前所未有的广泛关注。城市群中的核心城市是形成整体合力,推动城市及区域经济发展的载体和核心单元。作为城市群区域内外联系的纽带,核心城市的对外交通规划与发展对于推动城市群、区域社会经济全面发展具有重要的作用。论文将城市群整体对外交通规划和发展作为核心城市对外运输通道规划的先决条件,从综合运输可持续发展和城市群整体发展的多重角度考虑核心城市对外运输发展规划,改变了以往单一运输方式发展的思路和核心城市各自分散规划对外交通的方法和模式。主要内容如下:
(1)分析核心城市对外交通与城市群发展的关系,明确核心城市的范围。通过比较一般意义上城市的对外交通和核心城市的对外交通,得出核心城市对外交通的特点就是具有层次性。根据实际情况对核心城市对外交通三个层次的交通运输特点做了详细的论述,并通过内外因两方面针对影响核心城市对外交通的发展因素进行了讨论。
(2)介绍了SWOT分析方法的原理,并通过分析确定了用SWOT分析方法来制定核心城市对外交通发展战略的可行性与合理性。运用SWOT方法对成渝城市群的核心城市成都的对外交通发展战略进行分析,并制定出了成都市对外交通发展战略。
(3)运用灰色关联-回归方法分析对核心城市对外客运需求进行了预测,为确保结果的准确性,本文又运用客运量产生机理模型进行了校核;经过结果对比,误差在允许范围之内,保证了结果的精确性;分别运用相关系数法和弹性系数法对核心城市的货运发生需求和过境货运需求进行了预测。
(4)根据制定出的核心城市发展战略,明确核心城市对外交通的发展要求,并以此为标准对现有的局域和广域对外交通规划进行适应性评价。在实例分析中,成渝城市群中成都市的现有对外交通规划评价结果为基本满足城市群发展的要求,同时就需要进一步整改的方向和内容提出了建议,并就新建线路的时机问题进行了论述。
通过对城市群中核心城市对外运输通道功能定位、对外交通需求分析、系统规划等方面的分析和研究,搭建新形势下城市群中核心城市对外运输通道规划体系的基本框架,以期为实现我国城市群以及核心城市的对外交通发展提供参考和支持。
As an advanced form that incarnates the urbanization level, city group has gotten extensive attention in China. The core city among city group is the carrier and core unit which impulses the development of regional and urban economics. The external traffic of the core city is a tie that connects the regions inside and outside of the city group. And the planning and development of external traffic in the core city play an important effect on the society and economy development of the city group. The paper focuses on the entire planning and development of external traffic in city group as a precondition of external transportation channel planning of the core city. Compared with the traditional single traffic methods and separate planning modes, the external traffic planning of the core city is analyzed on considering both sustainable development of comprehensive transportation and overall development of the city group.
The main contents are listed as follow:
(1) The paper analyzes the relationship between external traffic of core city and the development of the city group, and defines the bound of the core city. It is concluded that the external traffic of the core city has a feature of hierarchy by means of comparing external traffic of general city with that of core city. The external traffic of core city is divided into three levels, which are discussed in detail. And then, the influence factors of external traffic in core city are divided into two parts, internal factor and external factor, which are the base of the establishment of external traffic development strategy of core city in city group.
(2) It introduces SWOT analysis method, which is proved to be as a feasible and rational method to establish the external traffic development strategy of the core city. Moreover, the SWOT is used to analyze and establish the external traffic development strategy of Chengdu in Cheng-Yu city group.
(3) It forecast the urban external traffic using grey correlation-regression method. To ensure the accuracy, the paper checks the result with passenger capacity producing mechanical model. And the error is in the accepted range. With the help of the correlation coefficient method and elastic coefficient method, the freight producing demand and pass-through freight demand of core city are forecasted.
(4) According to the development strategy of core city established above, the paper defines the external traffic development requirement and evaluates the existing external traffic planning of the local region and wide region. In the example, the external traffic planning of Chengdu basically satisfies the development needs of Cheng-Yu city group. Then it proposes some advices to improve traffic planning in Chengdu. And the time of building a new line has also been discussed.
By analyzing and researching the external transportation channel function definition, external traffic demand, system planning and other aspects of core city, the paper builds the basic framework of the external transportation channel planning in the core city within new circumstance. And all of these can be expected as a consultation and supported to achieve the development of external traffic in core city and city group in China.
(1)分析核心城市对外交通与城市群发展的关系,明确核心城市的范围。通过比较一般意义上城市的对外交通和核心城市的对外交通,得出核心城市对外交通的特点就是具有层次性。根据实际情况对核心城市对外交通三个层次的交通运输特点做了详细的论述,并通过内外因两方面针对影响核心城市对外交通的发展因素进行了讨论。
(2)介绍了SWOT分析方法的原理,并通过分析确定了用SWOT分析方法来制定核心城市对外交通发展战略的可行性与合理性。运用SWOT方法对成渝城市群的核心城市成都的对外交通发展战略进行分析,并制定出了成都市对外交通发展战略。
(3)运用灰色关联-回归方法分析对核心城市对外客运需求进行了预测,为确保结果的准确性,本文又运用客运量产生机理模型进行了校核;经过结果对比,误差在允许范围之内,保证了结果的精确性;分别运用相关系数法和弹性系数法对核心城市的货运发生需求和过境货运需求进行了预测。
(4)根据制定出的核心城市发展战略,明确核心城市对外交通的发展要求,并以此为标准对现有的局域和广域对外交通规划进行适应性评价。在实例分析中,成渝城市群中成都市的现有对外交通规划评价结果为基本满足城市群发展的要求,同时就需要进一步整改的方向和内容提出了建议,并就新建线路的时机问题进行了论述。
通过对城市群中核心城市对外运输通道功能定位、对外交通需求分析、系统规划等方面的分析和研究,搭建新形势下城市群中核心城市对外运输通道规划体系的基本框架,以期为实现我国城市群以及核心城市的对外交通发展提供参考和支持。
As an advanced form that incarnates the urbanization level, city group has gotten extensive attention in China. The core city among city group is the carrier and core unit which impulses the development of regional and urban economics. The external traffic of the core city is a tie that connects the regions inside and outside of the city group. And the planning and development of external traffic in the core city play an important effect on the society and economy development of the city group. The paper focuses on the entire planning and development of external traffic in city group as a precondition of external transportation channel planning of the core city. Compared with the traditional single traffic methods and separate planning modes, the external traffic planning of the core city is analyzed on considering both sustainable development of comprehensive transportation and overall development of the city group.
The main contents are listed as follow:
(1) The paper analyzes the relationship between external traffic of core city and the development of the city group, and defines the bound of the core city. It is concluded that the external traffic of the core city has a feature of hierarchy by means of comparing external traffic of general city with that of core city. The external traffic of core city is divided into three levels, which are discussed in detail. And then, the influence factors of external traffic in core city are divided into two parts, internal factor and external factor, which are the base of the establishment of external traffic development strategy of core city in city group.
(2) It introduces SWOT analysis method, which is proved to be as a feasible and rational method to establish the external traffic development strategy of the core city. Moreover, the SWOT is used to analyze and establish the external traffic development strategy of Chengdu in Cheng-Yu city group.
(3) It forecast the urban external traffic using grey correlation-regression method. To ensure the accuracy, the paper checks the result with passenger capacity producing mechanical model. And the error is in the accepted range. With the help of the correlation coefficient method and elastic coefficient method, the freight producing demand and pass-through freight demand of core city are forecasted.
(4) According to the development strategy of core city established above, the paper defines the external traffic development requirement and evaluates the existing external traffic planning of the local region and wide region. In the example, the external traffic planning of Chengdu basically satisfies the development needs of Cheng-Yu city group. Then it proposes some advices to improve traffic planning in Chengdu. And the time of building a new line has also been discussed.
By analyzing and researching the external transportation channel function definition, external traffic demand, system planning and other aspects of core city, the paper builds the basic framework of the external transportation channel planning in the core city within new circumstance. And all of these can be expected as a consultation and supported to achieve the development of external traffic in core city and city group in China.
引文
[1]成都市城市城乡空间发展战略规划研究初步成果汇报[R].成都市规划管理局.2005
[2]Se-ilMun.Transport network and system of cities[J].Journal of urban economics,1997(42):205-221.
[3]Kiyoshi Kobayashi,Makoto Okumura.The growth of city systems with high-speed railway systems[:[].Annals of Regional Science,1997,31:39-56
[4]Morton E O' Kelly.A geographer' s analysis of hub-and-spoke networks[J].Journal of Transport Geography,1998,6(3):171-186
[5]Francisco J,Martinez C.Access:the transport-land use economic link[J].Transport Research,1995,29(6):457-470.
[6]铃木信太郎.大都市圈计划の潮流——东京[J].运输と经济.1997(4)
[7]森川洋.日本地域轴的现状[J].产业立地.1993,32(9):4-13
[8]朱彦东,吴兵.城市群综合交通系统战略规划研究[J].现代城市研究.2001(4):44-47
[9]谢汶莉.城市群公路交通网络结构分析[D].西南交通大学硕士学位论文.2005.12
[10]刘金江.城市群交通规划研究[D].长安大学硕士学位论文.2004.5
[11]陈斌.都市圈交通发展战略规划理论及应用研究[D].南京林业大学硕士学位论文.2004.6
[12]朱照宏,杨东援,吴兵.城市群交通规划[M].上海:同济大学出版社.2006.10:21
[13]姚士谋.中国城市群[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社.2001
[14]王青.城市群的形成与区域经济的发展[D].河北大学硕士论文.2004.6
[15]John J.Eutnse view:Communications,Technology and society in the 21st century New York[M].Johnson press.1992
[16]年富华,姚士谋,陈振光.试论城市群区域的网络化组织[J].地理科学.2002(5)
[17]陈培健.城市发展与对外公路交通合理布局研究[J].公路交通科技. 2000(3).
[18]可持续发展的成都——成都综合交通运输规划[R].成都市交通委员会.2005
[19]朱英明.城市群经济空间分析[M].科学出版社.2004
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[21](加)克雷格·弗莱舍(Craig S.Fleisher),(澳)芭贝特·本苏桑(Babette E.Bensoussan).战略与竞争分析——商业竞争分析的方法与技巧(Strategic and Competitire:Methods and Techniques for Analyzing Business Competition).王俊杰,沈峰,杨斌等译[M].清华大学出版社.2004.7
[22]Clark,J.J.,Clark,M.T.,& Versilli,A.G.(1985).Strategic planning and sustainable growth[J].Columbia Journal of World Business,20(3)
[23]李媛媛.城市公共交通建设策略研究——以西安市为例[D].长安大学硕士论文.2004.5
[24]李娜.SWOT分析应用于竞争情报活动的实例研究——SWOT分析与“赛特”之成功[J].情报理论与实践.2000,23(4):288-29.
[25]季求知.中国西部地区公路发展若干问题研究[D].长安大学博士论文.2005.6
[26]邹昭希.企业战略分析[M].经济管理出版社.2001.1
[27]王慈光.系统工程导论[M].西南交通大学交通运输学院.2002.6
[28]吴清烈,蒋尚华.预测与决策分析[M].东南大学出版社.2004
[29]张建旭,朱顺应等.城市道路运量总量控制预测方法探讨[J].重庆交通学院学报.2004.23(3):86-89
[30]张树升,周伟.公路网规划的总量控制法[J].华东公路.1996(2):42-46
[31]潘艳荣,翟长旭,朱顺应.总量控制与系统平衡相结合的交通量预测方法[J].2005(1):102-105
[32]仇芝,党耀国.用电量的灰色—多元回归耦合模型预测[J].华东电力.2006.34(3):187
[33]陶永宏.基于GOMPERTZ函数的上证综合指数预测的实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识.2005.35(12):51-52
[34]http://www.cdstats.chengdu.gov.cn/index.asp.
[35]李娟.相关系数法在通道交通需求预测中的应用[J].中国公路学报.2006.19(5):99-100
[36]李慧,林荣娜.弹性系数法在公路工可交通量预测中的应用[J].西华大学学报.25(5):28-29
[37]HUO ya-min,Study on the Model and Parameter of Highway Traffic Forecast[J].Journal of Chongqing University,1999,(1):124
[38]http://www.scjtonline.cn
[39]中长期铁路网规划[R].铁道部.2005
[40]胡永宏.综合评价方法[M].北京:科学出版社.2002
[41]关宏志.非集计模型——交通行为分析的工具[M].北京:人民交通出版社.2004,12
[42]谭跃进,陈英武,易进先.系统工程原理[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社.1999.11:175-199
[43]Feng Shan,Xu Li D.Decision support for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of urban development[J].Fuzzy sets and system.1999
[44]夏明雷.区域公路运输结构适应性研究[D].西南交通大学硕士学位论文.2006.3
[45]http://www.aoqin.com/cjsjz/gs/gs_37.htm
[46]国家计委综合运输研究所,成都市规划设计院交通研究所,西南交通大学.成都综合运输发展战略规划[R].成都市交通局.2005
[47]中华人民共和国交通部.国家高速公路网规划[R].北京:中华人民共和国交通部.2005
[48]成都市“十一五”综合运输发展规划[R].成都市计委.2005
[49]全国民用航空运输机场十一五建设规划及2020年远景规划研究报告(西南地区)[R].中国国际工程咨询公司,民航总局安全技术中心.2005.5
[50]李德刚.综合运输网中的通道分析与系统配置研究[D].西南交通大学博士学位论文.2006.6
[2]Se-ilMun.Transport network and system of cities[J].Journal of urban economics,1997(42):205-221.
[3]Kiyoshi Kobayashi,Makoto Okumura.The growth of city systems with high-speed railway systems[:[].Annals of Regional Science,1997,31:39-56
[4]Morton E O' Kelly.A geographer' s analysis of hub-and-spoke networks[J].Journal of Transport Geography,1998,6(3):171-186
[5]Francisco J,Martinez C.Access:the transport-land use economic link[J].Transport Research,1995,29(6):457-470.
[6]铃木信太郎.大都市圈计划の潮流——东京[J].运输と经济.1997(4)
[7]森川洋.日本地域轴的现状[J].产业立地.1993,32(9):4-13
[8]朱彦东,吴兵.城市群综合交通系统战略规划研究[J].现代城市研究.2001(4):44-47
[9]谢汶莉.城市群公路交通网络结构分析[D].西南交通大学硕士学位论文.2005.12
[10]刘金江.城市群交通规划研究[D].长安大学硕士学位论文.2004.5
[11]陈斌.都市圈交通发展战略规划理论及应用研究[D].南京林业大学硕士学位论文.2004.6
[12]朱照宏,杨东援,吴兵.城市群交通规划[M].上海:同济大学出版社.2006.10:21
[13]姚士谋.中国城市群[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社.2001
[14]王青.城市群的形成与区域经济的发展[D].河北大学硕士论文.2004.6
[15]John J.Eutnse view:Communications,Technology and society in the 21st century New York[M].Johnson press.1992
[16]年富华,姚士谋,陈振光.试论城市群区域的网络化组织[J].地理科学.2002(5)
[17]陈培健.城市发展与对外公路交通合理布局研究[J].公路交通科技. 2000(3).
[18]可持续发展的成都——成都综合交通运输规划[R].成都市交通委员会.2005
[19]朱英明.城市群经济空间分析[M].科学出版社.2004
[20]bttp://www.sdpc.gov.cn/mtbd/t20061207_98184.htm.
[21](加)克雷格·弗莱舍(Craig S.Fleisher),(澳)芭贝特·本苏桑(Babette E.Bensoussan).战略与竞争分析——商业竞争分析的方法与技巧(Strategic and Competitire:Methods and Techniques for Analyzing Business Competition).王俊杰,沈峰,杨斌等译[M].清华大学出版社.2004.7
[22]Clark,J.J.,Clark,M.T.,& Versilli,A.G.(1985).Strategic planning and sustainable growth[J].Columbia Journal of World Business,20(3)
[23]李媛媛.城市公共交通建设策略研究——以西安市为例[D].长安大学硕士论文.2004.5
[24]李娜.SWOT分析应用于竞争情报活动的实例研究——SWOT分析与“赛特”之成功[J].情报理论与实践.2000,23(4):288-29.
[25]季求知.中国西部地区公路发展若干问题研究[D].长安大学博士论文.2005.6
[26]邹昭希.企业战略分析[M].经济管理出版社.2001.1
[27]王慈光.系统工程导论[M].西南交通大学交通运输学院.2002.6
[28]吴清烈,蒋尚华.预测与决策分析[M].东南大学出版社.2004
[29]张建旭,朱顺应等.城市道路运量总量控制预测方法探讨[J].重庆交通学院学报.2004.23(3):86-89
[30]张树升,周伟.公路网规划的总量控制法[J].华东公路.1996(2):42-46
[31]潘艳荣,翟长旭,朱顺应.总量控制与系统平衡相结合的交通量预测方法[J].2005(1):102-105
[32]仇芝,党耀国.用电量的灰色—多元回归耦合模型预测[J].华东电力.2006.34(3):187
[33]陶永宏.基于GOMPERTZ函数的上证综合指数预测的实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识.2005.35(12):51-52
[34]http://www.cdstats.chengdu.gov.cn/index.asp.
[35]李娟.相关系数法在通道交通需求预测中的应用[J].中国公路学报.2006.19(5):99-100
[36]李慧,林荣娜.弹性系数法在公路工可交通量预测中的应用[J].西华大学学报.25(5):28-29
[37]HUO ya-min,Study on the Model and Parameter of Highway Traffic Forecast[J].Journal of Chongqing University,1999,(1):124
[38]http://www.scjtonline.cn
[39]中长期铁路网规划[R].铁道部.2005
[40]胡永宏.综合评价方法[M].北京:科学出版社.2002
[41]关宏志.非集计模型——交通行为分析的工具[M].北京:人民交通出版社.2004,12
[42]谭跃进,陈英武,易进先.系统工程原理[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社.1999.11:175-199
[43]Feng Shan,Xu Li D.Decision support for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of urban development[J].Fuzzy sets and system.1999
[44]夏明雷.区域公路运输结构适应性研究[D].西南交通大学硕士学位论文.2006.3
[45]http://www.aoqin.com/cjsjz/gs/gs_37.htm
[46]国家计委综合运输研究所,成都市规划设计院交通研究所,西南交通大学.成都综合运输发展战略规划[R].成都市交通局.2005
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