FDI流入、收入差距与就业转移
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摘要
改革开放以来特别是二十世纪九十年代后,FDI大量流入中国,对中国的收入增长和就业结构转换发挥了积极的推动作用。然而,FDI的区域和产业投资倾斜也导致了中国收入分配不公和就业失衡等问题,影响到国民经济持续均衡发展和社会公平稳定。综观国内外相关研究,主要从FDI对收入分配和就业转移的影响视角,缺乏就FDI、收入差距与就业转移三者的相互关系及其作用机理展开系统深入的理论、实证与对策探究。因此,本文的选题具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文以当前中国利用外资进入新的发展阶段,国内收入分配和就业结构调整面临新形势为背景,沿着理论分析→机理探源→实证研究→政策设计的研究路线,运用历史主义与抽象归纳、统计描述、联立方程计量、可计算一般均衡模型(CGE模型)和对策研究的方法,对论题进行研究。主要内容包括：
首先,在理论和机理研究上,论述了影响劳动力流动及就业转移的因素,揭示了FDI对就业转移的直接效应和间接效应；探讨了FDI如何通过收入分配影响就业转移的传导机理和作用路径,提出了FDI流入→收入差距→就业转移的新分析框架。其次,在实证分析层面,总结了中国劳动力流动和就业转移的空间格局；描述了FDI、收入分配与就业转移在中国的区域分布特征；运用泰尔指数等数理统计的方法定量测度了FDI、工资收入和就业人口在我国的区域分布差异及其影响因素；基于CES生产函数,推导出就业的决定方程,构建FDI、收入差距与就业转移的联立方程模型,测算了FDI流入对就业转移的直接效应及其通过收入分配因素对就业转移的间接效应；建立了一个包括就业转移变量在内的CGE模型,编制了中国宏观经济的社会核算矩阵(SAM表),结合中国现实的情况,设计4种情景,使用GAMS软件,模拟计算并分析FDI流入对收入差距和就业转移的动态传导效应；最后,在政策设计中,基于对FDI流入导致的收入差距及就业失衡给国家经济安全和社会公平稳定带来的影响评价,提出了中国引资和劳动就业政策调整优化的必要性以及合理利用外资促进中国收入分配公平和就业和谐的政策取向。
研究结果表明：FDI流入带来了收入的差异,这种差异导致了就业转移。其中的传导渠道为：FDI通过提高员工收入的直接效应和通过影响区域结构,产业结构,贸易结构和技术溢出的间接效应来影响收入分配差距；收入差距通过消费水平和消费结构的差异与劳动者个人的心理因素和整个家庭劳动力资源配置的两个渠道最终影响到劳动力就业转移,即FDI流入→收入差距→就业转移；区域间差异对造成FDI、工资收入和就业区域差异的贡献相对于区域内差异的贡献程度大；FDI因素对三大地区内部就业转移的总效应为：0.1011、-0.2158和-0.1931：对三大区域间就业转移的总效应为0.0856,收入差距是FDI差异就业转移效应的重要传导渠道；FDI流入对就业转移的效应在各部门之间呈现了明显的结构性差异：在第二产业中,FDI流入对金属制造业和其他制造业的就业转移影响较大；而在第三产业中,其对运输邮电业和商贸住宿业的就业转移量的影响较大。
Since reform and opening up, FDI has played a positive role in the development of Chinese manufacturing and in promoting employment transfer. However, FDI also causes employment transfer and employment alternative between regions and industries (Yang Yunyan,2003), which brings some prombles of imbalances. Plenty factors of production (including labours) transfering led to "peasant","labor shortage" and other social issues.Therefore, the research has positive theoretical significance and practical significance.
In theory analysis, by browsing the foreign and domestic literatures, the dissertation sums up the existing viewpoints of FDI, income distribution and employment transfer. On the basis of related theory, the dissertation analyzes the relationship among FDI, income distribution and employment transfer; researches the character of Chinese labor market and the cause of Chinese labor transfer; indicates the direct and indirect effects of FDI flowing on employment transfer; reveals the mechanism of FDI on employment transfer; which takes income disparity as an intermediate variable, nd then establishes the framework of FDI inflow→income disparity→employment transfer.
In empirical analysis, combining with Chinese data, the dissertation applies mathematical statistics, econometrics and CGE model to evaluate the effect of FDI on employment transfer and the role of income distribution. Firstly, the dissertation describes the character and structure of FDI, income distribution and employment transfer; calculates Theil index of FDI, income distribution and employment transfer; and then analyzes the spatial structure of Chinese employment transfer. Secondly, establish an available model on the basis of CES production function to evaluate the impact of foreign direct investment on employment transfer. The methods used in the study are known as simultaneous equations model. It applies the empirical analysis to get direct effect and indirect effect. The results show that the effect of FDI flowing on employment transfer of three regions (eastern, middle and western region). Thirdly, According to the related data, the dissertation builds China social national matrix (SAM table), and then establish an employment characteristics computable general equilibrium model (CGE model), which contains production, demand, elements supply (capital and labor), government and macro closure. Combined with China's reality, the paper designs four different scenarios, uses GAMS to simulate the impact of FDI flowing on employment transfer, and compare the result of different scenarios. At last, the dissertation explains the impact of FDI flowing and employment transfer on national security and social stability, and then points out the necessity, feasibility and principle of China's foreign investment policy and employment policy. According to the theoretical and empirical study, it promotes investment policy and employment policy on the basis of income distribution justice.
The results indicate that:firstly, FDI inflow leads to income distribution and employment disparities, which cause employment transfer. Secondly, I get the effect of FDI inflow on employment transfer of three regions (eastern, middle and western region). The effect0.1011、-0.2158and-0.1931inside these regions, while it is0.0856outside these regions. Income disparity is the most important transmission channel. Thirdly, the effect of FDI flowing on employment transfer is different among iudustries. The effect is relatively large in the metal industry and other manufacturing industry of the secondary industry, and relatively large in the transportation, postal and telecommunications services industry and business accommodation industry of the third industry. This chapter is the CGE model simulation part of the dissertation.
本文以当前中国利用外资进入新的发展阶段,国内收入分配和就业结构调整面临新形势为背景,沿着理论分析→机理探源→实证研究→政策设计的研究路线,运用历史主义与抽象归纳、统计描述、联立方程计量、可计算一般均衡模型(CGE模型)和对策研究的方法,对论题进行研究。主要内容包括：
首先,在理论和机理研究上,论述了影响劳动力流动及就业转移的因素,揭示了FDI对就业转移的直接效应和间接效应；探讨了FDI如何通过收入分配影响就业转移的传导机理和作用路径,提出了FDI流入→收入差距→就业转移的新分析框架。其次,在实证分析层面,总结了中国劳动力流动和就业转移的空间格局；描述了FDI、收入分配与就业转移在中国的区域分布特征；运用泰尔指数等数理统计的方法定量测度了FDI、工资收入和就业人口在我国的区域分布差异及其影响因素；基于CES生产函数,推导出就业的决定方程,构建FDI、收入差距与就业转移的联立方程模型,测算了FDI流入对就业转移的直接效应及其通过收入分配因素对就业转移的间接效应；建立了一个包括就业转移变量在内的CGE模型,编制了中国宏观经济的社会核算矩阵(SAM表),结合中国现实的情况,设计4种情景,使用GAMS软件,模拟计算并分析FDI流入对收入差距和就业转移的动态传导效应；最后,在政策设计中,基于对FDI流入导致的收入差距及就业失衡给国家经济安全和社会公平稳定带来的影响评价,提出了中国引资和劳动就业政策调整优化的必要性以及合理利用外资促进中国收入分配公平和就业和谐的政策取向。
研究结果表明：FDI流入带来了收入的差异,这种差异导致了就业转移。其中的传导渠道为：FDI通过提高员工收入的直接效应和通过影响区域结构,产业结构,贸易结构和技术溢出的间接效应来影响收入分配差距；收入差距通过消费水平和消费结构的差异与劳动者个人的心理因素和整个家庭劳动力资源配置的两个渠道最终影响到劳动力就业转移,即FDI流入→收入差距→就业转移；区域间差异对造成FDI、工资收入和就业区域差异的贡献相对于区域内差异的贡献程度大；FDI因素对三大地区内部就业转移的总效应为：0.1011、-0.2158和-0.1931：对三大区域间就业转移的总效应为0.0856,收入差距是FDI差异就业转移效应的重要传导渠道；FDI流入对就业转移的效应在各部门之间呈现了明显的结构性差异：在第二产业中,FDI流入对金属制造业和其他制造业的就业转移影响较大；而在第三产业中,其对运输邮电业和商贸住宿业的就业转移量的影响较大。
Since reform and opening up, FDI has played a positive role in the development of Chinese manufacturing and in promoting employment transfer. However, FDI also causes employment transfer and employment alternative between regions and industries (Yang Yunyan,2003), which brings some prombles of imbalances. Plenty factors of production (including labours) transfering led to "peasant","labor shortage" and other social issues.Therefore, the research has positive theoretical significance and practical significance.
In theory analysis, by browsing the foreign and domestic literatures, the dissertation sums up the existing viewpoints of FDI, income distribution and employment transfer. On the basis of related theory, the dissertation analyzes the relationship among FDI, income distribution and employment transfer; researches the character of Chinese labor market and the cause of Chinese labor transfer; indicates the direct and indirect effects of FDI flowing on employment transfer; reveals the mechanism of FDI on employment transfer; which takes income disparity as an intermediate variable, nd then establishes the framework of FDI inflow→income disparity→employment transfer.
In empirical analysis, combining with Chinese data, the dissertation applies mathematical statistics, econometrics and CGE model to evaluate the effect of FDI on employment transfer and the role of income distribution. Firstly, the dissertation describes the character and structure of FDI, income distribution and employment transfer; calculates Theil index of FDI, income distribution and employment transfer; and then analyzes the spatial structure of Chinese employment transfer. Secondly, establish an available model on the basis of CES production function to evaluate the impact of foreign direct investment on employment transfer. The methods used in the study are known as simultaneous equations model. It applies the empirical analysis to get direct effect and indirect effect. The results show that the effect of FDI flowing on employment transfer of three regions (eastern, middle and western region). Thirdly, According to the related data, the dissertation builds China social national matrix (SAM table), and then establish an employment characteristics computable general equilibrium model (CGE model), which contains production, demand, elements supply (capital and labor), government and macro closure. Combined with China's reality, the paper designs four different scenarios, uses GAMS to simulate the impact of FDI flowing on employment transfer, and compare the result of different scenarios. At last, the dissertation explains the impact of FDI flowing and employment transfer on national security and social stability, and then points out the necessity, feasibility and principle of China's foreign investment policy and employment policy. According to the theoretical and empirical study, it promotes investment policy and employment policy on the basis of income distribution justice.
The results indicate that:firstly, FDI inflow leads to income distribution and employment disparities, which cause employment transfer. Secondly, I get the effect of FDI inflow on employment transfer of three regions (eastern, middle and western region). The effect0.1011、-0.2158and-0.1931inside these regions, while it is0.0856outside these regions. Income disparity is the most important transmission channel. Thirdly, the effect of FDI flowing on employment transfer is different among iudustries. The effect is relatively large in the metal industry and other manufacturing industry of the secondary industry, and relatively large in the transportation, postal and telecommunications services industry and business accommodation industry of the third industry. This chapter is the CGE model simulation part of the dissertation.
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