货物运输通道的演变及实证研究
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摘要
我国经济的持续增长与人民生活水平的提高极大地刺激了运输需求的增长,也直接导致交通结构的变化。由于区域资源条件的差异及区域发展的不平衡性,在经济高速发展的某些地区,会形成需求相对密集的条形地带,即运输通道,这类通道需要提供更高水平的运输服务。资料表明,我国的货物运输量主要集中在几大主要的运输通道。对于发展中的地区来说,采用何种方式以及在何时提供这些运输服务正是通道规划的任务。因此,运输通道的规划与建设已经成为整个综合交通体系规划中最重要的组成部分之一。
     本文以货物运输为对象,在充分考虑综合交通网络上不同方式技术经济特点及其提供的服务水平差异的基础上,重点研究了运输通道中货物运输体系规划的相关方法与实证问题。论文的主要工作包括以下几方面:
     (1)通过分析货物运输通道的基本类型与运行特征,总结了运输通道供需平衡的基本模式;从货运通道形成过程出发,提出了运输通道吸引腹地范围的分析与确定方法。论文以欧洲莱茵河通道和我国京九运输通道为例,验证了运输通道的演化规律,指出了政府执行力对通道成长速度的重要影响。
     (2)深入剖析了货运通道内社会经济发展与运输需求的互动关系,利用定性和定量相结合的方法分析了二者之间的相互作用,构建了互动关系分析评价的指标体系,提出了基于主成分分析的运输弹性系数模型和灰色关联度分析模型,并以1985-2008年广深通道的演变为例进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:广深通道运输需求关联度最大的要素初期是经济总量(GDP)与人口(城市化)水平,随着沿通道区域经济结构的转变,关联最显著要素转变为反映社会与经济活动的指标(社会消费品零售总额)而非原来的GDP等指标。这对研究其他货运通道的形成与演变具有重要意义。
     (3)结合综合交通运输体系中不同运输方式的技术经济特征,研究了运输通道内不同运输方式竞争力的内涵,建立了不同运输方式的市场竞争力分析与评估模型;结合市场经济发展原理,从宏观与微观角度研究了影响运输方式竞争力的主要要素,指出了宏观因素和微观因素的本质差异。在此基础上,构建了基于准时性、快速性、经济性、方便性、货物安全性、货物价值损失等6个微观影响因素的货物运输通道内运输方式竞争力模型,提出了可操作的参数标定与选择方法。结合我国西部某煤炭运输通道中公路和铁路两种方式竞争案例的分析,进一步探讨了相关参数对运输方式竞争力的具体作用,找出了提高既有运输方式竞争力的有效手段,并为探讨既有通道内新建运输方式或新建运输线路(途径)的合理性提供了科学手段。
     (4)在借鉴既有运输通道规划方法基础上,研究了运输通道规划与运营中的关键技术问题;从需求(用户)和供给(政府)两方面研究了货物运输通道规划的目标,重构了基于需求侧的用户成本与基于供给(政府)侧的系统成本概念,阐述了货物运输通道系统成本的内、外部成本及其技术经济内涵。研究认为:系统成本体现了规划主体(政府)的目标,用户成本则决定着实际的方式分担结果;规划主体可以通过政策措施来影响通道中不同运输方式的选择,缩小系统成本与用户成本之问的差距。由于系统成本中外部成本的作用,由系统成本决定的社会均衡运量要比由用户成本决定的用户理想运量要小,且外部成本占系统成本中的比重越大,社会均衡运量与用户理想运量的差距越大。
     (5)通过货物运输通道内部成本和外部成本将综合交通系统的可持续发展要求与服务水平(效率)结合起来,提出了综合货物运输通道规划的原则和目标,构建了基于系统成本分析的货物运输通道规划框架,从宏观、中观和微观三个层次对运输通道规划方案的具体内容与规划方法进行了深入阐述;研究结论可以为区域货物运输系统的规划提供参考。
     货物运输通道的规划与发展深刻影响着相关区域社会发展与经济增长的速度与形态,各种因素相互作用的机理十分复杂。本文仅讨论了其中的部分问题,许多内容还有必要开展更加全面、持续的研究。
The sustained economic growth and improvement of people's living standards have greatly stimulated the growth of transport demand, but also directly resulted in traffic structural changes in China. Because of regional differences in terms of resources and unbalanced development, it will form a rectangular area where traffic demand is relatively dense in some areas of rapid economic development, namely, transport corridors. Such corridors need to be studied to provide a higher level of transportation services. Planning and construction of transport corridors have also become one of the most important components of the planning throughout the integrated transport system, which also makes the author to fix the study in the area.
     On the basis of full consideration of differences in features and relative service levels of different modes in integrated traffic network, we focus on freight transport system's related theory and empirical issues of transport corridors. The main work includes the following aspects.
     (1) By analyzing the basic types and characteristics of freight corridors, the paper discusses the mode of supply-demand balance about the transportation corridors and the formation of freight corridors, proposes the methods about determining the cover of transportation corridors. Based on above studies, the author summarizes the evolution of freight corridors, and put forward the viewpoints about the power of related regional governmental departments in promoting the growth of transport corridors. The analyses on the comparison of the Rhine and Beijing-Kowloon railway transport corridors have also been given to demonstrate above conclusions.
     (2) The dissertation analyzes the correlation between social economic development and transportation demand deeply in freight corridors, and analyzes their interaction by qualitative and quantitative method, constructs the index system of the correlation evaluation, proposes the elasticity factor of transportation model and grey relational grade analysis model based on principal component analysis and finally makes an empirical analysis of the evolution of Guang-Shen corridor between 1985 and 2008. The research results show:in initial stage the elements of the largest relational grades with transportation demand of Guang-Shen corridor are economic aggregate (GDP) and the population (urbanization) level and along with the changes of economic structure of the areas among the corridors, the elements change to the indexes reflecting the social and economic activities (total retail sales of consumer goods) rather than the former index GDP, etc. The results above are significant for the research on the formation and evolution of other freight corridors.
     (3) With techno-economic characteristics of different modes in integrated transportation system, the conceptual framework for the competitiveness of different models in transport corridors is studied. According to the principle of market economy, the dissertation analyses the influence factors via microscopic and macroscopic. Of course, the difference between micro-factors and macro-factors are discussed. Then, the competitiveness model of different transport models including six factors, namely punctuality, rapidity, economical, convenience and goods value, is established. The method for parameters calibration of competitiveness model is proposed. An example shows the application technology of the competitiveness model.
     (4) The critical theory issues on planning and operation of transport corridors are researched on the basis of the existing transport corridor planning theory. An analysis is made of the freight transport corridors planning methods for demand (users) and supply (government). We rebuild the concept of user cost based on the demand side and system cost based on the supply (government) side and their applying scope. We also point out that the system cost, which indicate the goal of the subject in planning, consist of internal cost and external costs. Of course, it will also affect the freight mode choice by policy and measures. Society balance volume, which is decided by system cost, is smaller than user ideal volume for which is decided by user cost. Further more, the gap between these two volume changes along with the ratio of external cost of system cost.
     (5) Sustainable Development and service level (efficiency) about the integrated transport system is combined by two generalized cost function. The system cost of the freight corridors is analyzed. The planning principles and objection of comprehensive freight corridors is submitted and based on system cost,the planning framework which makes a further probe into the planning content and point of transportation corridor from three scales:macroscopic, midscopic and microscopic is structured. These results will do favor to region freight transportation system planning and construction.
     The development of freight transport corridors has impacts on the social variation and economic expansion of related regions both with speed and modes due to the complicated mechanism among factors involved. The thesis only discusses some issues among them, and a systematical and continued study is also necessary for future development.
引文
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