城市输配水管网可靠性研究
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摘要
输配水管网系统是城市重要的基础设施,承担着将自来水按质保量的从净水厂安全输配给用户的任务,其可靠性研究对于保证城市供水安全性、可靠性及服务水平有积极而又重要的意义。本文在总结分析国内外管网可靠性研究成果的基础上,利用系统工程、图论和优化算法理论,综合考虑影响可靠性的各种因素和不确定性来源,深入地研究了管网可靠性的评估方法及其在管网优化设计中的应用,为管网的设计及运行提供了理论依据和决策支持。
首先,根据管网水力学基础理论,利用节点实际可利用流量与压力之间的关系式,基于EPANET水力计算引擎,提出了一种用于事故状态下的管网水力分析的方法。为了对事故状态下的管网进行拓扑结构分析,基于图论中的深度优先搜索算法,提出了一套新的关阀搜索和事故影响区域判定的算法,为探索阀门对可靠性的影响奠定了坚实的理论基础。
其次,针对现有研究中普遍存在的忽视阀门数量和泵站适应性控制等影响因素的问题,从复杂系统可靠性的基础理论出发,考虑到影响系统可靠性的各种因素和不确定性来源,分别建立了基于最小割集法和蒙特卡罗法的管网可靠度计算模型,并将其用于中型管网的可靠性评估。算例的结果证实了阀门数量和泵站适应性控制对于可靠性有显著影响。
再次,以流量熵作为水在管网流动不确定性的度量,间接表征系统的可靠性,建立了管网可靠性熵值代理模型;从能量角度出发,将系统克服或消减事故造成影响的能力量化为可恢复性指数,建立可恢复性指数代理模型。将两种模型应用于算例管网的可靠性分析中,结果验证了流量熵、可恢复性指数两种代理指标与系统可靠性存在正相关关系,同时也证明了两种代理模型的高效性和易用性。
最后,首次将管径和阀门的位置作为决策变量,建立了以管网投资和运行费用最小、系统可靠度最大为目标的管网多目标优化设计模型。通过引入Pareto外部档案存储策略并借鉴NSGA-II的非劣和拥挤距离排序方法,将单目标的混合蛙跳算法扩展至多目标,并应用于管网多目标优化设计模型的求解。通过中国北方某开发区管网优化设计的应用实例,证明了多目标优化设计模型的可行性和混合蛙跳算法的高效性。
Water distribution systems (WDS) are important urban infrastructures which are designed for safely conveying potable water from treatment plant to user’s tap with adequate quantity and desired quality. The reliability evaluation of WDS has positive and critical meanings for ensuring water supply security, reliability and maintaining a high level of service. A complete review of existed WDS reliability models and publications has been done before starting this study. In order to consider various factors and uncertainty sources that may affect WDS reliability, a set of methods and algorithms from subjects of system engineering, graphic theory and optimization theory has been employed in this dissertation to explore the effective WDS reliability assessment measurements and their implementation on optimal design problems. The outcome of this study could provide a theoretical basis and decision support for optimal design and operation of distribution systems.
Firstly, according to WDS hydraulic theory and the relationship function between available flow and pressure, an EPANET based method is proposed to analyze the hydraulic performance of WDS under failure condition. In order to carry out WDS topological analysis when system is under failure condition, a new effective algorithm, based on Depth-first Search technique from graphic theory, has been developed to search the valves to be closed and the impacted area due to valve closing while component failure occurs in the system. The proposed algorithm provides a theoretical foundation for exploring the valve’s impact on WDS reliability.
Secondly, the impact of valve and adaptive pump operation has been ignored by most previous studies. In order to account all possible factors and uncertainty sources that may affect WDS reliability, a minimum cut-set based method and another Monte Carlo simulation based method have been proposed to assess reliability of distribution systems. These two methods have been implemented to evaluate reliability level of mid-sized distribution networks seperatedly. The results prove that both the number of valves and pump adaptive operation have significant impact on WDS reliability.
Thirdly, flow entropy is treated as a measurement of flow uncertainty in networks to represent WDS reliability and an entropy based surrogate model has been established for reliability analysis. Also a resilience index surrogate model has been developed and in which the resilience index is a quantified measure for system’s ability to overcome or reduce the impact of component failure. Both of these two surrogate models have been applied to evaluate the performance of a mid-sized network and the results show that both flow entropy and resilience index are correlated with network reliability and the high efficiency of these two surrogate models has been demonstrated as well.
Finally, treating diameters and valve locations as decision variables, a multi-objective model for optimal design of distribution systems has been proposed. The two objectives of this model are to minimize the investment and operations cost and maximize WDS reliability. The shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) has been extended to solve multi-objective problems with the help of an external Pareto archive strategy and non-dominated ranking technique from NSGA-II. The multi-objective SFLA has been used to find solutions for optimal design of a real network located in northern China; the results have demonstrated the feasibility of the optimal design model and the efficiency of the multi-objective SFLA.
首先,根据管网水力学基础理论,利用节点实际可利用流量与压力之间的关系式,基于EPANET水力计算引擎,提出了一种用于事故状态下的管网水力分析的方法。为了对事故状态下的管网进行拓扑结构分析,基于图论中的深度优先搜索算法,提出了一套新的关阀搜索和事故影响区域判定的算法,为探索阀门对可靠性的影响奠定了坚实的理论基础。
其次,针对现有研究中普遍存在的忽视阀门数量和泵站适应性控制等影响因素的问题,从复杂系统可靠性的基础理论出发,考虑到影响系统可靠性的各种因素和不确定性来源,分别建立了基于最小割集法和蒙特卡罗法的管网可靠度计算模型,并将其用于中型管网的可靠性评估。算例的结果证实了阀门数量和泵站适应性控制对于可靠性有显著影响。
再次,以流量熵作为水在管网流动不确定性的度量,间接表征系统的可靠性,建立了管网可靠性熵值代理模型;从能量角度出发,将系统克服或消减事故造成影响的能力量化为可恢复性指数,建立可恢复性指数代理模型。将两种模型应用于算例管网的可靠性分析中,结果验证了流量熵、可恢复性指数两种代理指标与系统可靠性存在正相关关系,同时也证明了两种代理模型的高效性和易用性。
最后,首次将管径和阀门的位置作为决策变量,建立了以管网投资和运行费用最小、系统可靠度最大为目标的管网多目标优化设计模型。通过引入Pareto外部档案存储策略并借鉴NSGA-II的非劣和拥挤距离排序方法,将单目标的混合蛙跳算法扩展至多目标,并应用于管网多目标优化设计模型的求解。通过中国北方某开发区管网优化设计的应用实例,证明了多目标优化设计模型的可行性和混合蛙跳算法的高效性。
Water distribution systems (WDS) are important urban infrastructures which are designed for safely conveying potable water from treatment plant to user’s tap with adequate quantity and desired quality. The reliability evaluation of WDS has positive and critical meanings for ensuring water supply security, reliability and maintaining a high level of service. A complete review of existed WDS reliability models and publications has been done before starting this study. In order to consider various factors and uncertainty sources that may affect WDS reliability, a set of methods and algorithms from subjects of system engineering, graphic theory and optimization theory has been employed in this dissertation to explore the effective WDS reliability assessment measurements and their implementation on optimal design problems. The outcome of this study could provide a theoretical basis and decision support for optimal design and operation of distribution systems.
Firstly, according to WDS hydraulic theory and the relationship function between available flow and pressure, an EPANET based method is proposed to analyze the hydraulic performance of WDS under failure condition. In order to carry out WDS topological analysis when system is under failure condition, a new effective algorithm, based on Depth-first Search technique from graphic theory, has been developed to search the valves to be closed and the impacted area due to valve closing while component failure occurs in the system. The proposed algorithm provides a theoretical foundation for exploring the valve’s impact on WDS reliability.
Secondly, the impact of valve and adaptive pump operation has been ignored by most previous studies. In order to account all possible factors and uncertainty sources that may affect WDS reliability, a minimum cut-set based method and another Monte Carlo simulation based method have been proposed to assess reliability of distribution systems. These two methods have been implemented to evaluate reliability level of mid-sized distribution networks seperatedly. The results prove that both the number of valves and pump adaptive operation have significant impact on WDS reliability.
Thirdly, flow entropy is treated as a measurement of flow uncertainty in networks to represent WDS reliability and an entropy based surrogate model has been established for reliability analysis. Also a resilience index surrogate model has been developed and in which the resilience index is a quantified measure for system’s ability to overcome or reduce the impact of component failure. Both of these two surrogate models have been applied to evaluate the performance of a mid-sized network and the results show that both flow entropy and resilience index are correlated with network reliability and the high efficiency of these two surrogate models has been demonstrated as well.
Finally, treating diameters and valve locations as decision variables, a multi-objective model for optimal design of distribution systems has been proposed. The two objectives of this model are to minimize the investment and operations cost and maximize WDS reliability. The shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) has been extended to solve multi-objective problems with the help of an external Pareto archive strategy and non-dominated ranking technique from NSGA-II. The multi-objective SFLA has been used to find solutions for optimal design of a real network located in northern China; the results have demonstrated the feasibility of the optimal design model and the efficiency of the multi-objective SFLA.
引文
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