基于系统动态学的棚户区改造研究
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摘要
目前,我国正处在工业化、城市化快速发展阶段,城市人口急剧增加,住房保障问题日益突出。棚户区是我国社会经济发展过程中的历史产物。生活在这里的居民不但居住条件差,而且绝大部分属于低收入困难群体。党中央对棚户区居民的居住和生活状况非常重视。2009年,国务院做出全面启动城市和国有工矿棚户区改造工作的决定,并计划用五年时间完成对全国棚户区的改造,届时棚户区将不复存在。为了使这项民生工程得以顺利实施,有必要就棚户区改造相关问题进行探讨。
本文将棚户区改造作为研究对象,将棚户区改造各要素和其之间的关系视为一个系统,按照系统动态学的建模原理和建模步骤建立棚户区改造的系统动态学模型。在对系统的基本问题进行界定和分析之后,对四个子系统进行因果关系分析并绘制出相应的因果关系图和系统整体因果关系图。随后确定系统中的各类变量,再分别绘制各子系统动态学流图并建立动态学方程。之后,利用系统动态学软件Vensim对哈尔滨市棚户区改造状况进行仿真模拟。根据建立的系统动态学模型,以哈尔滨市棚户区改造的数据设定系统初始状态,并针对结果进行检验,论述模型的可用性和有效性。最后对哈尔滨市棚户区改造的现行政策体系和现存问题进行分析,提出了加大棚户区居民就业安置、扩大房源、多渠道融资三项政策建议,并利用系统动态学模型的灵敏度分析来验证政策建议的效果,确保提出的建议是切实有效的,可以为哈尔滨市棚户区改造的继续推行和顺利完成提供帮助。
Currently, China is in the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization with urban population sharply increasd and housing security issues becoming daily prominent. Shantytowns are the product of history of socio-economic development in China. Residents of shantytowns are not only in poor living conditions, but most of them are of low income. Central Committee pays great attention to the housing and living conditions of inhabitants of the shantytowns. The State Council made a decision that comprehensively launched the transformation of urban shantytowns and those in state-owned mining cities in 2009. It is also planned that five years should be taken to complete the transformation process of shantytowns around the whole country. Shantytowns will no longer exist then. It is necessary to have some discussions on relevant issues in order to realize the successful implementation of this livelihood project.
In this dissertation, shantytowns transformation is taken as research object, and all the elements of shantytowns transformation, together with their relations are treated as a system. System dynamics modeling theory and modeling procedures are used to set up the system dynamics model of shantytowns transformation. After definition and analysis on the basic issues of the system, causal relationship between the four subsystems are analyzed and corresponding causal loop diagrams as well as integral causal loop diagram are drew. Then all types of variables are determined, system flow charts of each subsystem and intergral one are drew and the establishment of dynamics equations follows. Afterwards, Vensim is used to make simulation of shantytowns transformation in Harbin. Based on data of shantytowns transformation in Harbin, initial state are set according to the established system dynamics model. Later, tests are done against results to discuss the availability and effectiveness of the model. Finally, analyses are done on the existing policy system and current problems of Harbin shantytowns transformation with countermeasures and suggestions that job improvement, housing resource opening up and multi-channel financing put forward. The effect of policy recommendations are tested with the sensitivity analysis according to the output of simulation to ensure that the recommendations are practical, effective and enable to offer help to the continued implementation and successful completion of Harbin shantytowns transformation.
本文将棚户区改造作为研究对象,将棚户区改造各要素和其之间的关系视为一个系统,按照系统动态学的建模原理和建模步骤建立棚户区改造的系统动态学模型。在对系统的基本问题进行界定和分析之后,对四个子系统进行因果关系分析并绘制出相应的因果关系图和系统整体因果关系图。随后确定系统中的各类变量,再分别绘制各子系统动态学流图并建立动态学方程。之后,利用系统动态学软件Vensim对哈尔滨市棚户区改造状况进行仿真模拟。根据建立的系统动态学模型,以哈尔滨市棚户区改造的数据设定系统初始状态,并针对结果进行检验,论述模型的可用性和有效性。最后对哈尔滨市棚户区改造的现行政策体系和现存问题进行分析,提出了加大棚户区居民就业安置、扩大房源、多渠道融资三项政策建议,并利用系统动态学模型的灵敏度分析来验证政策建议的效果,确保提出的建议是切实有效的,可以为哈尔滨市棚户区改造的继续推行和顺利完成提供帮助。
Currently, China is in the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization with urban population sharply increasd and housing security issues becoming daily prominent. Shantytowns are the product of history of socio-economic development in China. Residents of shantytowns are not only in poor living conditions, but most of them are of low income. Central Committee pays great attention to the housing and living conditions of inhabitants of the shantytowns. The State Council made a decision that comprehensively launched the transformation of urban shantytowns and those in state-owned mining cities in 2009. It is also planned that five years should be taken to complete the transformation process of shantytowns around the whole country. Shantytowns will no longer exist then. It is necessary to have some discussions on relevant issues in order to realize the successful implementation of this livelihood project.
In this dissertation, shantytowns transformation is taken as research object, and all the elements of shantytowns transformation, together with their relations are treated as a system. System dynamics modeling theory and modeling procedures are used to set up the system dynamics model of shantytowns transformation. After definition and analysis on the basic issues of the system, causal relationship between the four subsystems are analyzed and corresponding causal loop diagrams as well as integral causal loop diagram are drew. Then all types of variables are determined, system flow charts of each subsystem and intergral one are drew and the establishment of dynamics equations follows. Afterwards, Vensim is used to make simulation of shantytowns transformation in Harbin. Based on data of shantytowns transformation in Harbin, initial state are set according to the established system dynamics model. Later, tests are done against results to discuss the availability and effectiveness of the model. Finally, analyses are done on the existing policy system and current problems of Harbin shantytowns transformation with countermeasures and suggestions that job improvement, housing resource opening up and multi-channel financing put forward. The effect of policy recommendations are tested with the sensitivity analysis according to the output of simulation to ensure that the recommendations are practical, effective and enable to offer help to the continued implementation and successful completion of Harbin shantytowns transformation.
引文
1孙霞,程道平,宋来强.济南市棚户区现状及改造建议.皖西学院学报, 2006, 22(5), 104~106.
2李俊夫.城中村的改造.科学出版社, 2004.
3 Susan Mayhew. The Concise Oxford Dictionary of Geography. London Oxford University Press, 1997.
4 Greg O’Hare and Michael Brake. A rebiew of slum housing policies in Munbai. Cities, 1998, 15(4): 169~283.
5 Yok-Shiu, F. Lee. Intermediary institutions, community organizations, and urban environmental management: the case of three Bangkok slums. World Development, 1998, 26(6): 993~1011.
6 Shayer Ghafur. Entitlement to Patronage: social construction of household claims on Slum Improvement Project, Bangladesh. Habitat International, 2000, (24): 261~278.
7 R. Biswas-Diener and E Diener. Making the best of a bad situation: satisfaction in the slums of Calcutta. Social Indicators Research, 2001, (55): 329~352.
8 Vinit Mukhija. An analytical framework for uban upgrading: property rights, property values and physical attributes. Habitat International, 2002, (26): 553~570.
9 Michael Majale. Employment creation through participatory urban planning and slum upgrading: The case of Kitale, Kenya. Habitat International, 2008, (32): 270~282.
10 Jan Nijman. Against the odds: Slum rehabilitation in neoliberal Mumbai. Cities, 2008, (25): 73~85.
11 Alan Gilbert and Peter Ward. Community participation in upgrading irregular settlements: the community response. World Development, 1984, 12(9): 913~922.
12 N.Wates, C.Kbevit Community Architecture: how people are creating their own environment, London, 1987.
13 Belinda Yuen. Safety and dwelling in Singapore. Cities, 2004, 21(1): 19~28.
14 Krueger, Rob, Savage and Lydia. City~Regions and Social Reproduction: A‘Place’for Sustainable Development? International Journal of Urban&Regional Research. 2007, 31(1): 215~223.
15 Graham Tipple. Settlement upgrading and homebased enterprises: discussions from empirical data. Cities, 2004, 21(5), 371~379.
16 Johmston R. J., Gregory D and Smith D. Dictionary of Human Geography.Blackwell:Oxford, 1986.
17 Fredric A. Dahms. Dying villages, counterurbanization and the urban field~a Canadian perspective. Journal of Rural Studies, 1995, 11(1): 21~33.
18 O’Sullivan A. Urban Economics. The McGaw~Hill Companies, Inc. Press, 2001.
19 Musisi Nkambwe. Monitoring land use change in an African tribal village on the rural~urban fringe. Applied Geography, 1996, 16(4): 305~317.
20 Flávio A. M. de Souza. The future of informal settlements: lessons in the legalization of disputed urban land in Recife, Brazil. Geoforum, 2001, 32(4): 483~492.
21 Roberto Camagni, Roberta Capello, Peter Nijkamp, Towards Sustainable City Policy: An Economy~Environment Technology Nexus, Ecological Economics. 1998, 24(1): 103~118.
22 Krausse, Birgit, Cook, Malcolm and Lomas, Kevin.Environmental Performance of a Naturally Ventilated City Centre Library.Energy&Buildings. 2007, 39(7): 792~801.
23 Castle and Pamela. The City: Environmental Issues and Sustainable Development. Environmental Law Review. 2004, 6(1): 1~3.
24 Adam Barker. Capacity building for sustainability: towards community development in coastal Scotland. Journal of Environmental Management, 2005, 75(1): 11~19.
25 Lynn A. Staeheli. Citizenship and the problem of community. Political Geography, 2008, 27(1): 5~21.
26牛怡霖.城市房屋行政强制拆迁的思考.今日湖北理论版. 2007, 1(3): 187~188.
27普熹.《物权法》不可能终结强制拆迁.新西部, 2007, (4): 67.
28张振宇.强制拆迁在规范拆迁市场中举足轻重.网络财富﹒管理视野, 2008, (7): 68~69.
29彭小霞.城市拆迁中强制拆迁制度的反思与重构.城市发展研究2009, 16(5), 113~117.
30曹小琳,甘元彦.城市房屋拆迁经济补偿博弈分析.合作经济与科技, 2008, (6): 62~64.
31杨宇龙.规范行政强制拆迁的法律思考.探索, 2009, (1): 66~68.
32唐忠民.新征收与拆迁补偿条例应细化“公共利益”.法学, 2010, (3): 135~139.
33傅达林.拆迁修法:求解城市发展和谐之道.热点, 2010, (4): 30~32.
34董丽晶,张平宇.城市再生视野下的棚户区改造实践问题.地域研究与开发, 2008, 27(3), 44~47.
35陈忠全,信玉红,王士玲.关于完善棚改回迁居民就业机制的博弈分析.辽宁高职学报, 2008, 10(6), 81~85.
36陈碧红.棚户区改造存在的问题分析及建议——以长沙市开福区棚户区改造为例.中外建筑. 2008, (8): 123~124.
37王士玲.抚顺棚改回迁居民就业与再就业状况研究.辽宁高职学报, 2008, 10(6): 111~112.
38张道航.地方政府棚户区改造的模式及方略.福建行政学院学报, 2010, (1): 18~22.
39靳中旗.关才棚户区工程项目的跟踪审计.中州煤炭, 2008, (5): 145~146.
40郑文升,丁四保,王晓芳,李铁滨.中国东北地区资源型城市棚户区改造与反贫困研究.地理科学, 2008, 28(2): 156~161.
41洪红,朱孟伟,徐崇.棚户区改造工程社会评价方法研究——基于模糊综合评价方法.重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 26(2): 194~198.
42王要武.建筑系统工程学(第二版).中国建筑工业出版社, 2008.4.
43李乃胜.城市棚户区防治的思考.城市发展研究,2000, (1):32~34.
44林春梅,王敏锋.老工业基地城市棚户型低收入住区改造模式探讨—以沈阳市为例.现代城市研究. 2008, (3): 40~46.
45吴良镛.“人居”与人居环境科学研究.城市规划,1997, (3): 4~9.
2李俊夫.城中村的改造.科学出版社, 2004.
3 Susan Mayhew. The Concise Oxford Dictionary of Geography. London Oxford University Press, 1997.
4 Greg O’Hare and Michael Brake. A rebiew of slum housing policies in Munbai. Cities, 1998, 15(4): 169~283.
5 Yok-Shiu, F. Lee. Intermediary institutions, community organizations, and urban environmental management: the case of three Bangkok slums. World Development, 1998, 26(6): 993~1011.
6 Shayer Ghafur. Entitlement to Patronage: social construction of household claims on Slum Improvement Project, Bangladesh. Habitat International, 2000, (24): 261~278.
7 R. Biswas-Diener and E Diener. Making the best of a bad situation: satisfaction in the slums of Calcutta. Social Indicators Research, 2001, (55): 329~352.
8 Vinit Mukhija. An analytical framework for uban upgrading: property rights, property values and physical attributes. Habitat International, 2002, (26): 553~570.
9 Michael Majale. Employment creation through participatory urban planning and slum upgrading: The case of Kitale, Kenya. Habitat International, 2008, (32): 270~282.
10 Jan Nijman. Against the odds: Slum rehabilitation in neoliberal Mumbai. Cities, 2008, (25): 73~85.
11 Alan Gilbert and Peter Ward. Community participation in upgrading irregular settlements: the community response. World Development, 1984, 12(9): 913~922.
12 N.Wates, C.Kbevit Community Architecture: how people are creating their own environment, London, 1987.
13 Belinda Yuen. Safety and dwelling in Singapore. Cities, 2004, 21(1): 19~28.
14 Krueger, Rob, Savage and Lydia. City~Regions and Social Reproduction: A‘Place’for Sustainable Development? International Journal of Urban&Regional Research. 2007, 31(1): 215~223.
15 Graham Tipple. Settlement upgrading and homebased enterprises: discussions from empirical data. Cities, 2004, 21(5), 371~379.
16 Johmston R. J., Gregory D and Smith D. Dictionary of Human Geography.Blackwell:Oxford, 1986.
17 Fredric A. Dahms. Dying villages, counterurbanization and the urban field~a Canadian perspective. Journal of Rural Studies, 1995, 11(1): 21~33.
18 O’Sullivan A. Urban Economics. The McGaw~Hill Companies, Inc. Press, 2001.
19 Musisi Nkambwe. Monitoring land use change in an African tribal village on the rural~urban fringe. Applied Geography, 1996, 16(4): 305~317.
20 Flávio A. M. de Souza. The future of informal settlements: lessons in the legalization of disputed urban land in Recife, Brazil. Geoforum, 2001, 32(4): 483~492.
21 Roberto Camagni, Roberta Capello, Peter Nijkamp, Towards Sustainable City Policy: An Economy~Environment Technology Nexus, Ecological Economics. 1998, 24(1): 103~118.
22 Krausse, Birgit, Cook, Malcolm and Lomas, Kevin.Environmental Performance of a Naturally Ventilated City Centre Library.Energy&Buildings. 2007, 39(7): 792~801.
23 Castle and Pamela. The City: Environmental Issues and Sustainable Development. Environmental Law Review. 2004, 6(1): 1~3.
24 Adam Barker. Capacity building for sustainability: towards community development in coastal Scotland. Journal of Environmental Management, 2005, 75(1): 11~19.
25 Lynn A. Staeheli. Citizenship and the problem of community. Political Geography, 2008, 27(1): 5~21.
26牛怡霖.城市房屋行政强制拆迁的思考.今日湖北理论版. 2007, 1(3): 187~188.
27普熹.《物权法》不可能终结强制拆迁.新西部, 2007, (4): 67.
28张振宇.强制拆迁在规范拆迁市场中举足轻重.网络财富﹒管理视野, 2008, (7): 68~69.
29彭小霞.城市拆迁中强制拆迁制度的反思与重构.城市发展研究2009, 16(5), 113~117.
30曹小琳,甘元彦.城市房屋拆迁经济补偿博弈分析.合作经济与科技, 2008, (6): 62~64.
31杨宇龙.规范行政强制拆迁的法律思考.探索, 2009, (1): 66~68.
32唐忠民.新征收与拆迁补偿条例应细化“公共利益”.法学, 2010, (3): 135~139.
33傅达林.拆迁修法:求解城市发展和谐之道.热点, 2010, (4): 30~32.
34董丽晶,张平宇.城市再生视野下的棚户区改造实践问题.地域研究与开发, 2008, 27(3), 44~47.
35陈忠全,信玉红,王士玲.关于完善棚改回迁居民就业机制的博弈分析.辽宁高职学报, 2008, 10(6), 81~85.
36陈碧红.棚户区改造存在的问题分析及建议——以长沙市开福区棚户区改造为例.中外建筑. 2008, (8): 123~124.
37王士玲.抚顺棚改回迁居民就业与再就业状况研究.辽宁高职学报, 2008, 10(6): 111~112.
38张道航.地方政府棚户区改造的模式及方略.福建行政学院学报, 2010, (1): 18~22.
39靳中旗.关才棚户区工程项目的跟踪审计.中州煤炭, 2008, (5): 145~146.
40郑文升,丁四保,王晓芳,李铁滨.中国东北地区资源型城市棚户区改造与反贫困研究.地理科学, 2008, 28(2): 156~161.
41洪红,朱孟伟,徐崇.棚户区改造工程社会评价方法研究——基于模糊综合评价方法.重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 26(2): 194~198.
42王要武.建筑系统工程学(第二版).中国建筑工业出版社, 2008.4.
43李乃胜.城市棚户区防治的思考.城市发展研究,2000, (1):32~34.
44林春梅,王敏锋.老工业基地城市棚户型低收入住区改造模式探讨—以沈阳市为例.现代城市研究. 2008, (3): 40~46.
45吴良镛.“人居”与人居环境科学研究.城市规划,1997, (3): 4~9.