基于PSR模型的大气复合污染情景分析指标体系研究
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摘要
空气是人类生存所必须的物质,而经济的快速发展造成城市大气污染状况不断加剧。伴随我国能源消费量的持续增长、机动车保有量的快速增长,我国城市中以NO_x污染为特征的机动车尾气型大气污染的危害逐渐凸显,它与我国传统的煤烟型大气污染相叠加,形成了区别于国外机动车尾气型复合污染的一种新型大气复合污染。这种大气复合污染类型在国际上尚无成功经验可以借鉴,因此,研究我国大气复合型污染具有重要意义。
本论文依托国家高技术发展研究计划(863)课题“珠江三角洲大气复合污染防治技术集成和综合示范”的第4子课题——《区域协调控制的情景分析》。本论文以“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型为概念,构建了大气复合污染的情景分析指标体系。本论文研究内容包括三部分,即大气复合污染情景分析指标体系构建方法研究、指标体系构建、指标体系实例应用。
(1)明确了我国大气复合污染的主要特点、表征及其危害。
(2)以大气复合污染控制为决策焦点,提出大气复合污染指标体系的构建原则、构建目的和构建步骤。
(3)以“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型为框架,根据情景分析法“不确定性”思想,提出了大气复合污染的情景分析指标体系。构建的大气复合污染指标体系共包括三个层次,即目标层A、准则层B和要素层C。目标层即大气复合污染情景,准则层即压力系统、状态系统和响应系统,要素层共包括25个具体指标,主要是压力指标和状态指标。响应系统偏重于定性描述,未设置具体指标。
(4)实例应用。建立了基于PSR模型的大气复合污染情景分析指标体系后,论文以广州为例对此指标体系进行了应用,分析了广州市现阶段(主要是2007年)压力指标、状态指标和响应指标的状况,并对广州市大气污染排放压力与能源消费、经济发展之间的典型驱动关系进行了分析。
Air is necessary for human survival.However,urban air pollution grows with the rapid economic developments.With the continued growth of China's energy consumption and increasing number of motor vehicles,a new type of air pollution,characterized by NO_X,which is caused mainly by vehicle exhaust is increasingly prominent.It combined with traditional air pollution of coal-burning stack and then formed a new type of combined air pollution.There is no successful experience of control of this type of compound pollution of atmosphere in the world,so it is of great importance to study this type of combined air pollution.
This thesis is based on a subject called "the control of regional coordination scenario analysis of air pollution",which is a section 4 sub-topic of a national high-tech research development plan(863) issues,"The Pearl River Delta complex atmospheric pollution control and integrated technology integration model".The "Pressure-State- Response"(PSR) model is used as a framework to build a index system for scenario analysis of combined atmospheric pollution.The contents include three parts,those are method study of scenario analysis index system of combined air pollution,index system buiding,application of the index system.
(1)Clearing the main characteristics and hazard.of combined air pollution in China.
(2)Combined air pollution control is seen as a focus of decision-making,principles and purpose and steps of constructing the index system were proposed.
(3)With PSR model used as a framework and the thought of "uncertainty",a indicators system focus on scenario analysis of combined air pollution is built.Three levels are included in the indicators system,which are target layer A,criteria layer B and elements layer C.Target layer is just the scenario of combined air pollution.There are 25 indicators in the system(mainly are pressure and state indicators),there are no specific indicators in respose system,which is focus on qualitative description.
(4) An application of the constructed indicators system.After the construction of the indicators syste,Guangzhou was selected for a application.Analyses of Guangzhou City at this stage(mainly in 2007) of the indicators were done.This paper also studies some driving relations between air pollution emissions and energy consumption and economic development.
本论文依托国家高技术发展研究计划(863)课题“珠江三角洲大气复合污染防治技术集成和综合示范”的第4子课题——《区域协调控制的情景分析》。本论文以“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型为概念,构建了大气复合污染的情景分析指标体系。本论文研究内容包括三部分,即大气复合污染情景分析指标体系构建方法研究、指标体系构建、指标体系实例应用。
(1)明确了我国大气复合污染的主要特点、表征及其危害。
(2)以大气复合污染控制为决策焦点,提出大气复合污染指标体系的构建原则、构建目的和构建步骤。
(3)以“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型为框架,根据情景分析法“不确定性”思想,提出了大气复合污染的情景分析指标体系。构建的大气复合污染指标体系共包括三个层次,即目标层A、准则层B和要素层C。目标层即大气复合污染情景,准则层即压力系统、状态系统和响应系统,要素层共包括25个具体指标,主要是压力指标和状态指标。响应系统偏重于定性描述,未设置具体指标。
(4)实例应用。建立了基于PSR模型的大气复合污染情景分析指标体系后,论文以广州为例对此指标体系进行了应用,分析了广州市现阶段(主要是2007年)压力指标、状态指标和响应指标的状况,并对广州市大气污染排放压力与能源消费、经济发展之间的典型驱动关系进行了分析。
Air is necessary for human survival.However,urban air pollution grows with the rapid economic developments.With the continued growth of China's energy consumption and increasing number of motor vehicles,a new type of air pollution,characterized by NO_X,which is caused mainly by vehicle exhaust is increasingly prominent.It combined with traditional air pollution of coal-burning stack and then formed a new type of combined air pollution.There is no successful experience of control of this type of compound pollution of atmosphere in the world,so it is of great importance to study this type of combined air pollution.
This thesis is based on a subject called "the control of regional coordination scenario analysis of air pollution",which is a section 4 sub-topic of a national high-tech research development plan(863) issues,"The Pearl River Delta complex atmospheric pollution control and integrated technology integration model".The "Pressure-State- Response"(PSR) model is used as a framework to build a index system for scenario analysis of combined atmospheric pollution.The contents include three parts,those are method study of scenario analysis index system of combined air pollution,index system buiding,application of the index system.
(1)Clearing the main characteristics and hazard.of combined air pollution in China.
(2)Combined air pollution control is seen as a focus of decision-making,principles and purpose and steps of constructing the index system were proposed.
(3)With PSR model used as a framework and the thought of "uncertainty",a indicators system focus on scenario analysis of combined air pollution is built.Three levels are included in the indicators system,which are target layer A,criteria layer B and elements layer C.Target layer is just the scenario of combined air pollution.There are 25 indicators in the system(mainly are pressure and state indicators),there are no specific indicators in respose system,which is focus on qualitative description.
(4) An application of the constructed indicators system.After the construction of the indicators syste,Guangzhou was selected for a application.Analyses of Guangzhou City at this stage(mainly in 2007) of the indicators were done.This paper also studies some driving relations between air pollution emissions and energy consumption and economic development.
引文
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[13]马小明,张立勋.基于压力-状态-响应模型的环境保护投资分析[J].环境保护.2002(11):31-33.
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