摘要
交通拥堵是全世界大城市面临的普遍难题,其产生的根源是城市交通供给与需求之间的失衡。纵观国内外城市交通管理实践,仅靠加大投入、加快交通基础设施建设不能完全解决城市交通拥堵。要从根本上解决交通拥堵,在完善交通基础设施的同时,采取合理有效的交通需求管理措施,抑制交通需求、调整需求,引导交通供需平衡发展,是解决交通拥堵问题的有效途径。
尽管交通需求管理策略综合评价受到了国内外学者的广泛关注,但评价只局限于单个交通需求管理策略或只评价交通改善情况。由于交通需求管理方案实施涉及到许多方面,因此,在实施之前,对影响城市交通需求管理适应性因素分析,预测各影响因素对TDM策略实施造成的影响,并对城市交通需求管理方案进行适应性评价,以此分析策略的可行性,对其不足之处进行必要的改进,成为有效实施TDM策略的必要手段和有效途径。
本论文正是基于以上背景,根据城市的交通基础设施、交通管理水平、公众参与积极性及第三方中介机构组织情况,建立系统的、具有广泛适用性的交通需求管理策略适应性分析模式、评价方法和模型系统,并将其应用于交通需求管理方案的制定和适应性评价,以推动TDM策略在我国的进一步研究和推广应用,促进城市交通系统健康、可持续发展。归纳起来,本论文完成的主要研究工作有以下几个方面:
系统地研究了交通管理部门和公众参与的交通需求管理博弈模型,得出不同条件下各自的最优对策以及支付情况,并且分析了博弈模型的潜在问题,概括性地提出了我国提高城市交通需求管理水平的基本措施。
构建了基于系统动力学的城市交通需求管理适应性模型程,探讨各影响因素与城市交通需求管理相互作用系统模拟的范围,并在未来的不同可能增加投入水平下进行了系统模拟,得到城市交通需求管理水平值在不同可能增加投入水平下的发展趋势和规律。
从城市交通需求管理适应性的内涵出发,研究交通需求管理与城市交通、经济发展的适应性的评价理论、方法及模型,评价交通需求管理适应的能力和程度;通过对城市交通需求管理与城市交通、城市经济发展的适应性评价,并结合城市交通需求管理的SWOT分析,提出提升城市交通需求管理适应性的对策建议。
Urban traffic jam is a common problem facing urban cities throughout the world, which is mostly due to the imbalance between transportation demand and supply. Taking an overview of transportation demand management experience both home and abroad, this problem can not be solved by means of increasing investment, speeding up the construction of transportation infrastructure and so forth only. If we want to solve the problem thoroughly, we must not only adjust traffic demand and strengthen the traffic infrastructure but also adopt some both reasonable and effective traffic demand management methods to refrain at the same time so that traffic system can develop in a direction of balanced supply and demand, which can truly be considered as an effective way to solve problem of traffic jam.
Though a comprehensive comment of traffic demand management tactics attracts great attention of those scholars both home and abroad, such comment confines single traffic demand tactic or traffic improvement. Because much aspects and factors are included in carrying out of traffic demand management, we have to make an analysis of factors that influencing urban traffic demand management adaptability, forecast the effect of these factors on TDM enforcement, and make an assessment of TDM adaptability. With such analysis and assessment, the feasibility of TDM tactics, we could make some necessary improvement of its defects, which can be a necessary tool and effective way to enforce TDM tactics.
With the background information mentioned above, the present thesis aims to establish a systematic, applicable model for the analysis of urban transportation demand management tactics, means of evaluation and model systems, which will later be applied to for plan making and evaluation about some typical regions'transportation demand management, hoping to driving a further study and application of transportation demand management tactics in China, as well as promoting a sustainable and healthy development do urban transportation system. To sum up, the following few issues are the main tasks the present thesis aims to accomplish:
A systematic study has been made on the transportation demand management Game theory between transportation demand management institutions and those participants, obtaining that the optimal countermeasures and ways of payment. Meanwhile, the potential underlying problems of Game model is analyzed as well, with some basic measures proposed for the improvement of urban transportation demand management in China.
A system-Dynamic based equation about transportation demand management is set up correspondingly, aiming to study the simulated range of interactive system between those different factors and transportation demand management respectively. Furthermore, the author also makes systematic simulations with the considerations of different investment increased in the future, and gets its consequent development tendency and regularity for transportation demand management.
Taking an account of the connotation of transportation demand management's adaptability, the authors makes a study of the evaluation theory, evaluation method and evaluation model for transportation demand management and urban transportation, as well as the economic development. With this evaluation, together with the SWOT analysis, some tactics and suggestions are proposed to improve the adaptability of transportation demand management.
引文
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