综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性测度方法研究
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摘要
摘要：随着经济发展和交通运输一体化进程的加快，运输业发展的重点正逐渐从城市和地区之间的线路或通道连接为主，转变为在节点上多种方式之间的连接为主，更多规划和设计的重点、更多技术和资金的使用已经转移到节点和枢纽的建设上。综合客运枢纽是现代综合交通运输体系实现“有机衔接、协调运转”核心任务的重要载体，是促进一体化运输发展的关键环节，其运行状况直接关系到交通系统中各种交通方式的衔接配合以及整体功能的充分发挥。随着客流量的日益增加，综合客运枢纽出现的问题越来越多，特别是高峰时段拥挤严重，一旦出现意外因素的干扰，极易造成整个换乘系统的“瘫痪”，甚至引发安全灾难。交通换乘服务是综合客运枢纽最主要的功能，任何故障都可能引发社会的高度关注，造成巨大的社会压力，甚至造成不良影响，只有及时、准确的掌握综合客运枢纽换乘系统的运行状态并能在一定程度上进行调控，提高枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性、避免系统运行的异常状态发生，才能够从根本上保障综合客运枢纽换乘服务功能的正常发挥。因此，对综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性进行测度，并实现对可靠性变化情况的实时监测十分必要。
目前对于综合客运枢纽可靠性的研究主要针对单一设备或设施进行，缺乏对枢纽换乘系统整体运行可靠性的研究。相关研究也只是从定性分析和静态结构角度进行，没有考虑行人行为的影响。但实际上，行人是客运枢纽的活动主体，行人行为对换乘系统的性能起着决定性作用，是引起系统运行可靠性变化的重要因素。此外，在客流组织方面的实践中虽然采用了通过出入口、闸机等进行客流控制的措施，但是对于何时启用客流控制、控制程度如何把握均没有合理的、定量的研究，这些控制方法的有效性也难以量化评估。既有的客运枢纽行人交通组织（大客流组织及应急疏散组织）方面的研究中，也忽略了对综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性问题的考虑。由于缺乏相关的理论研究的支持，目前综合客运枢纽运行管理部门还不能对综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性进行测度，也无法对运行状态进行准确的识别与有效的判断
因此，本文在分析客运枢纽运行管理的实际需求、总结国内外已有研究的优势与不足的基础上，综合运用系统科学、系统动力学、认知心理学、环境心理学、交通工程学等多学科理论与方法，力图建立完整的研究框架，将综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性与其构成要素的特性联系起来，探索系统构成要素与系统运行可靠性之间的相互影响关系及作用机理，通过对行人交通特性、换乘设施类别与特点、交通工具特征等的研究，建立单一设施可靠性测度模型，在此基础上建立换乘系统运行可靠性Petri网模型，并将研究成果应用到可靠性再分配、运行异常状态自动预警机制及交通组织策略的设计上。具体研究工作包括：
（1）对国内外相关研究进行分析与总结；给出论文的主要研究内容及技术路线。以系统科学、系统动力学为理论支撑，根据综合客运枢纽的特点，将其作为系统进行研究，给出综合客运枢纽换乘系统的构成，对系统要素进行解释；分析系统的行为模式与结构，给出换乘系统运行可靠性的定义、明确其内涵。
（2）深入研究综合客运枢纽换乘设施、交通工具以及行人交通特性对换乘系统运行可靠性的影响。以定性分析与软件仿真相结合的方式对设施及交通工具对换乘系统运行可靠性的影响机理进行解析；在研究行人流参数关系和行人微观行为特性基础上，对行人交通特性与换乘系统运行可靠性之间的相互影响机理进行解析。
（3）考虑换乘系统运行可靠性的内涵及系统要素的特点，基于综合客运枢纽换乘设施、交通工具以及行人流交通特性对换乘系统运行可靠性的影响机理解析结果，建立单一设施可靠性测度概率模型，结合问卷调查结果，给出模型参数的获取方法及推荐取值。提出换乘系统运行可靠性的建模思路及系统运行可靠性判定依据，建立可靠性Petri网模型。通过实例分析进一步阐述模型应用方法及求解过程。
（4）从可靠性再分配与预警机制设计两个方面对可靠性测度模型的应用进行研究，根据常用可靠性分配法的特点，结合综合客运枢纽的结构特性，提出换乘系统运行可靠性再分配方法；对可靠性模型进行二元化处理，通过数据分析提出异常状态的判定依据、监测数据的统计方法，建立预警机制，并提出管控策略。
研究工作的主要创新之处在于：
（1）引入可靠性理论表征综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行状态，将综合客运枢纽作为系统进行研究，提出内涵明确、可量化的综合客运枢纽换乘系统可靠性的概念。
（2）通过研究换乘系统构成要素对可靠性的影响及作用机理，明确行人流运行状态与设施可靠性之间的关系，以密度和排队长度为主要参数，建立不同类别设施的可靠性测度模型。
（3）基于换乘系统设施布局结构及流线关系分析，建立综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性Petri网模型。
（4）基于可靠性测度模型和Petri网建模思想，建立综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行状态预警机制。
研究结论可为综合客运枢纽运行状态监测与评价、异常状态自动预警及交通组织等提供理论支撑。
Abstract: With the development of economic and integration process of transportation,the priority development of transportation was transformed from line or road connectedbetween the cities and regions to multi-modes connected in the node. Some planning anddesign focus, technology and the use of funds had been shifted to the building of nodesand terminals. Comprehensive passenger transport terminals were the important carriersof modern integrated transport system to achieve co-operation, were the key parts topromote the development of integrated transport. The coordinating of varioustransportation modes and the full play of overall function were relevant to how well thecomprehensive passenger transport terminals function. With the increasing volume ofpassengers, more and more questions had arisen in comprehensive passenger transportterminals, especially passengers were overcrowded during peak hours, and if there weresome accidents, the overall transfer system would be seized up and even disasters wouldbe brought out. Transfer service was the most important function of comprehensivepassenger transport terminals, any failure might lead to high social concern, causeenormous social pressure, and even bring adverse effects. Nothing could fundamentallyensure transfer service function of comprehensive passenger transport terminals, but tomaster operational status of comprehensive passenger transport terminals timely,accurately, and then regulate it to improve the operational reliability of transfer system,avoid the occurrence of abnormal status. Thus, transfer system reliability measurementand real-time monitoring of comprehensive passenger transport terminals were necessary.
The property researches about the reliability of comprehensive passenger transportterminals almost focused on single equipment or facility, which lacked of focusing on theoverall reliability. These researches were only from qualitative analysis and staticstructure views, didn’t consider the impact of pedestrian behavior. But in fact, pedestrianswere the main activities in comprehensive passenger transport terminals, and pedestrianbehavior, an important factor which caused reliability changes, played a decisive role onsystem performance. In addition, though some pedestrian organization practices usedpedestrian flows control measures, there was no quantitative research of when to startcontrol measurements and how to grasp the degree of control, the availability of thesemeasurements also difficult to quantify assessment. The property researches, aboutpedestrian organization, including organizations of large pedestrian flows and emergencyevacuation, of comprehensive passenger transport terminals, ignored considerations oftransfer system reliability of comprehensive passenger transport terminals. Due to lack oftheoretical research support, managers could neither measure transfer system reliability, nor identify operation status of comprehensive passenger transport terminals.
Therefore, the actual demand of passenger terminals operation and management wasanalyzed, and the advantages and limitations of existing researches at home and abroadwere summed up. On that basis, a complete framework was trying to be established byusing Systems Science, System Dynamics, Cognitive Psychology, EnvironmentalPsychology, Traffic Engineering, and many other theories and methods, and the transfersystem reliability of the comprehensive passenger transport terminals was associated withcharacteristics of elements, which formed the transfer system, to explore the relationshipand interaction mechanism between elements and system reliability. The reliabilitymeasurement models of single facility were established by research pedestrian trafficcharacteristics, facilities categories and characteristics, and vehicle characteristics. On thatbasis, the Petri-net model of transfer system reliability was finally established. The resultsabove were applied to reliability redistribution, automatic early warning mechanism andpedestrian traffic organizations strategy design. The study work contents were showed asfollow.
(1) Analyzing and summarizing related researches at home and abroad, major studiesand technology was given. Choosing System Science and System Dynamics as theoreticalsupport, comprehensive passenger transport terminal was studied as a system based on itscharacteristics. The component of transfer system of comprehensive passenger transportterminal was given, and elements were determined. Furthermore, connotation definitionof transfer system reliability was pointed out based on system behavior and structureanalysis.
(2) The effects of facilities, vehicles and pedestrian traffic characteristics on thetransfer system reliability were deeply studied. The effects mechanism of facilities,vehicles were analyzed through qualitative analysis and simulation, and the effectsmechanism of pedestrian traffic characteristics were analyzed based on studies ofparameters relationship of pedestrian flow and microcosmic behavior characteristics ofpedestrian.
(3) Considering the connotation of transfer system reliability and the characteristicsof the system elements, the reliability measurement models of single facility wereestablished based on the results of effects mechanism analysis of facilities, vehicles andpedestrian traffic characteristics. Combined with the survey results, the calculate methodand recommended values of parameters in those models were given. Proposing modelingidea and judgment method of transfer system reliability, the Petri-net model of transfersystem reliability was finally established, and the applications and proof of models wereexpounded through case study.
(4) The applications of models were studied from two sides, the reliabilityredistribution and early warning mechanism design. According to the characteristics of
reliability allocation methods and the structure characteristics of comprehensive passengertransport terminals, the reliability redistribution method of transfer sysytem was proposed.Reliability models were dualized. The judgment method of abnormal status and statisticalmethod of monitoring data were proposed according to data analysis. Early warningmechanism was established and management and control strategy were presented.
The main innovations of the research work were showed as follow.
(1) The reliability theory was used to describe and evaluate the status of transfersystem, and Comprehensive passenger transport terminals were researched as a system,transfer system reliability was defined with a clear and quantifiable connotation.
(2) Considering inherent reliability and mission reliability of facilities, choosingdensity and queue lengh as main parameters of mission reliability, the reliabilitymeasurement models of different facilities were established by study on the effects of theelements of transfer system on reliability and the effects mechanism.
(3) Based on analysis of the flow lines and layout of facilities, the Petri-net model oftransfer system reliability was established.
(4) The early warning mechanism was designed based on reliability measurementmodels and Petri-net method.
These conclusions can provide theoretical support for operation status monitoringand evaluation, the abnormal state automatic warning and traffic organization ofcomprehensive transport terminals.
目前对于综合客运枢纽可靠性的研究主要针对单一设备或设施进行，缺乏对枢纽换乘系统整体运行可靠性的研究。相关研究也只是从定性分析和静态结构角度进行，没有考虑行人行为的影响。但实际上，行人是客运枢纽的活动主体，行人行为对换乘系统的性能起着决定性作用，是引起系统运行可靠性变化的重要因素。此外，在客流组织方面的实践中虽然采用了通过出入口、闸机等进行客流控制的措施，但是对于何时启用客流控制、控制程度如何把握均没有合理的、定量的研究，这些控制方法的有效性也难以量化评估。既有的客运枢纽行人交通组织（大客流组织及应急疏散组织）方面的研究中，也忽略了对综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性问题的考虑。由于缺乏相关的理论研究的支持，目前综合客运枢纽运行管理部门还不能对综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性进行测度，也无法对运行状态进行准确的识别与有效的判断
因此，本文在分析客运枢纽运行管理的实际需求、总结国内外已有研究的优势与不足的基础上，综合运用系统科学、系统动力学、认知心理学、环境心理学、交通工程学等多学科理论与方法，力图建立完整的研究框架，将综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性与其构成要素的特性联系起来，探索系统构成要素与系统运行可靠性之间的相互影响关系及作用机理，通过对行人交通特性、换乘设施类别与特点、交通工具特征等的研究，建立单一设施可靠性测度模型，在此基础上建立换乘系统运行可靠性Petri网模型，并将研究成果应用到可靠性再分配、运行异常状态自动预警机制及交通组织策略的设计上。具体研究工作包括：
（1）对国内外相关研究进行分析与总结；给出论文的主要研究内容及技术路线。以系统科学、系统动力学为理论支撑，根据综合客运枢纽的特点，将其作为系统进行研究，给出综合客运枢纽换乘系统的构成，对系统要素进行解释；分析系统的行为模式与结构，给出换乘系统运行可靠性的定义、明确其内涵。
（2）深入研究综合客运枢纽换乘设施、交通工具以及行人交通特性对换乘系统运行可靠性的影响。以定性分析与软件仿真相结合的方式对设施及交通工具对换乘系统运行可靠性的影响机理进行解析；在研究行人流参数关系和行人微观行为特性基础上，对行人交通特性与换乘系统运行可靠性之间的相互影响机理进行解析。
（3）考虑换乘系统运行可靠性的内涵及系统要素的特点，基于综合客运枢纽换乘设施、交通工具以及行人流交通特性对换乘系统运行可靠性的影响机理解析结果，建立单一设施可靠性测度概率模型，结合问卷调查结果，给出模型参数的获取方法及推荐取值。提出换乘系统运行可靠性的建模思路及系统运行可靠性判定依据，建立可靠性Petri网模型。通过实例分析进一步阐述模型应用方法及求解过程。
（4）从可靠性再分配与预警机制设计两个方面对可靠性测度模型的应用进行研究，根据常用可靠性分配法的特点，结合综合客运枢纽的结构特性，提出换乘系统运行可靠性再分配方法；对可靠性模型进行二元化处理，通过数据分析提出异常状态的判定依据、监测数据的统计方法，建立预警机制，并提出管控策略。
研究工作的主要创新之处在于：
（1）引入可靠性理论表征综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行状态，将综合客运枢纽作为系统进行研究，提出内涵明确、可量化的综合客运枢纽换乘系统可靠性的概念。
（2）通过研究换乘系统构成要素对可靠性的影响及作用机理，明确行人流运行状态与设施可靠性之间的关系，以密度和排队长度为主要参数，建立不同类别设施的可靠性测度模型。
（3）基于换乘系统设施布局结构及流线关系分析，建立综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行可靠性Petri网模型。
（4）基于可靠性测度模型和Petri网建模思想，建立综合客运枢纽换乘系统运行状态预警机制。
研究结论可为综合客运枢纽运行状态监测与评价、异常状态自动预警及交通组织等提供理论支撑。
Abstract: With the development of economic and integration process of transportation,the priority development of transportation was transformed from line or road connectedbetween the cities and regions to multi-modes connected in the node. Some planning anddesign focus, technology and the use of funds had been shifted to the building of nodesand terminals. Comprehensive passenger transport terminals were the important carriersof modern integrated transport system to achieve co-operation, were the key parts topromote the development of integrated transport. The coordinating of varioustransportation modes and the full play of overall function were relevant to how well thecomprehensive passenger transport terminals function. With the increasing volume ofpassengers, more and more questions had arisen in comprehensive passenger transportterminals, especially passengers were overcrowded during peak hours, and if there weresome accidents, the overall transfer system would be seized up and even disasters wouldbe brought out. Transfer service was the most important function of comprehensivepassenger transport terminals, any failure might lead to high social concern, causeenormous social pressure, and even bring adverse effects. Nothing could fundamentallyensure transfer service function of comprehensive passenger transport terminals, but tomaster operational status of comprehensive passenger transport terminals timely,accurately, and then regulate it to improve the operational reliability of transfer system,avoid the occurrence of abnormal status. Thus, transfer system reliability measurementand real-time monitoring of comprehensive passenger transport terminals were necessary.
The property researches about the reliability of comprehensive passenger transportterminals almost focused on single equipment or facility, which lacked of focusing on theoverall reliability. These researches were only from qualitative analysis and staticstructure views, didn’t consider the impact of pedestrian behavior. But in fact, pedestrianswere the main activities in comprehensive passenger transport terminals, and pedestrianbehavior, an important factor which caused reliability changes, played a decisive role onsystem performance. In addition, though some pedestrian organization practices usedpedestrian flows control measures, there was no quantitative research of when to startcontrol measurements and how to grasp the degree of control, the availability of thesemeasurements also difficult to quantify assessment. The property researches, aboutpedestrian organization, including organizations of large pedestrian flows and emergencyevacuation, of comprehensive passenger transport terminals, ignored considerations oftransfer system reliability of comprehensive passenger transport terminals. Due to lack oftheoretical research support, managers could neither measure transfer system reliability, nor identify operation status of comprehensive passenger transport terminals.
Therefore, the actual demand of passenger terminals operation and management wasanalyzed, and the advantages and limitations of existing researches at home and abroadwere summed up. On that basis, a complete framework was trying to be established byusing Systems Science, System Dynamics, Cognitive Psychology, EnvironmentalPsychology, Traffic Engineering, and many other theories and methods, and the transfersystem reliability of the comprehensive passenger transport terminals was associated withcharacteristics of elements, which formed the transfer system, to explore the relationshipand interaction mechanism between elements and system reliability. The reliabilitymeasurement models of single facility were established by research pedestrian trafficcharacteristics, facilities categories and characteristics, and vehicle characteristics. On thatbasis, the Petri-net model of transfer system reliability was finally established. The resultsabove were applied to reliability redistribution, automatic early warning mechanism andpedestrian traffic organizations strategy design. The study work contents were showed asfollow.
(1) Analyzing and summarizing related researches at home and abroad, major studiesand technology was given. Choosing System Science and System Dynamics as theoreticalsupport, comprehensive passenger transport terminal was studied as a system based on itscharacteristics. The component of transfer system of comprehensive passenger transportterminal was given, and elements were determined. Furthermore, connotation definitionof transfer system reliability was pointed out based on system behavior and structureanalysis.
(2) The effects of facilities, vehicles and pedestrian traffic characteristics on thetransfer system reliability were deeply studied. The effects mechanism of facilities,vehicles were analyzed through qualitative analysis and simulation, and the effectsmechanism of pedestrian traffic characteristics were analyzed based on studies ofparameters relationship of pedestrian flow and microcosmic behavior characteristics ofpedestrian.
(3) Considering the connotation of transfer system reliability and the characteristicsof the system elements, the reliability measurement models of single facility wereestablished based on the results of effects mechanism analysis of facilities, vehicles andpedestrian traffic characteristics. Combined with the survey results, the calculate methodand recommended values of parameters in those models were given. Proposing modelingidea and judgment method of transfer system reliability, the Petri-net model of transfersystem reliability was finally established, and the applications and proof of models wereexpounded through case study.
(4) The applications of models were studied from two sides, the reliabilityredistribution and early warning mechanism design. According to the characteristics of
reliability allocation methods and the structure characteristics of comprehensive passengertransport terminals, the reliability redistribution method of transfer sysytem was proposed.Reliability models were dualized. The judgment method of abnormal status and statisticalmethod of monitoring data were proposed according to data analysis. Early warningmechanism was established and management and control strategy were presented.
The main innovations of the research work were showed as follow.
(1) The reliability theory was used to describe and evaluate the status of transfersystem, and Comprehensive passenger transport terminals were researched as a system,transfer system reliability was defined with a clear and quantifiable connotation.
(2) Considering inherent reliability and mission reliability of facilities, choosingdensity and queue lengh as main parameters of mission reliability, the reliabilitymeasurement models of different facilities were established by study on the effects of theelements of transfer system on reliability and the effects mechanism.
(3) Based on analysis of the flow lines and layout of facilities, the Petri-net model oftransfer system reliability was established.
(4) The early warning mechanism was designed based on reliability measurementmodels and Petri-net method.
These conclusions can provide theoretical support for operation status monitoringand evaluation, the abnormal state automatic warning and traffic organization ofcomprehensive transport terminals.
引文
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