突发事件下非重复性交通拥堵传播规律与控制策略研究
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摘要
交通拥堵问题已经成为当今社会制约城市发展,影响日常生活质量的主要瓶颈。当前,交通管理者对交通拥堵传播机理,特别是突发事件引起的非重复性交通拥堵时空分布规律缺乏科学的认识,在制定相应的拥堵控制策略时过多的依赖于经验,亟需系统的理论支持。因而,深入研究突发事件下交通流的时空分布规律,系统分析控制策略对非重复性交通拥堵传播的影响,合理制定信息发布、路径诱导以及拥堵传播控制策略,对缓解城市交通拥堵具有重要意义。
为了分析信息发布、路径诱导以及拥堵控制策略对突发事件下交通流时空分布规律的影响,本文首先总结了基于元胞传输模型的交通拥堵传播模型。在此基础上,结合出行者动态路径选择模型,对信息发布策略的效果、基于禁行的拥堵传播控制策略设计以及可变信息板选址等问题进行了研究,对不同策略的作用机制和效果进行了分析评价。具体来讲,本文的主要研究工作有如下几个方面：
(1)介绍了应用元胞传输模型对交通流传播演化进行仿真的方法。包括路段实际走行时间、路段瞬时走行时间和相应的路径走行时间计算方法。针对ITS应用的特点,提出了路段实时走行时间的概念与获得方法。介绍了如何根据元胞传输模型的仿真输出,建立评价交通拥堵程度的指标体系,其评价指标主要包括：交通拥堵延误、交通拥堵规模、交通拥堵持续时间、平均瞬时速度、平均行程速度、系统总出行阻抗等,用于对突发事件所造成的非重复性交通拥堵时空指标和强度进行评价。
(2)基于元胞传输模型仿真,分析了突发事件下不同因素对非重复性交通拥堵传播的影响,主要包括：事件发生时的路况条件、事件导致道路通行能力的降低程度、事件在路段上发生的相对位置以及事件持续时间等。仿真结果表明,以上因素都会对交通拥堵的传播速度、范围、强度、持续时间等指标产生较大影响。这些现象产生的原因,可以通过运动波理论得到很好的解释。
(3)发布实时交通信息,是缓解城市中突发事件所造成的交通拥堵问题的重要手段。本文采用随机动态用户均衡模型,提出了实时交通信息影响下的出行者动态路径选择行为模型以及信息响应行为模型。在此基础上,探讨了不同交通条件和事件特性下,交通信息的质量差异、所占比例以及信息响应率等因素对信息发布策略作用效果的影响。仿真结果显示,路况信息对缓解交通拥堵的效果,与当时的交通状况以及信息特性有密切关系。
(4)根据突发事件下非重复性交通拥堵传播的时空分布规律,提出了禁行区域割集的定义以及基于拥堵区域割集的交通拥堵传播控制策略。通过设计合理的区域禁行控制策略,可以抑制拥堵向上游区域的进一步传播,同时促使拥堵路段上的排队启动,加快拥堵消散速度。基于禁行下的出行者路径选择行为假设,提出了禁行区域的优化设计方法。该禁行策略考虑了交通拥堵传播的空间结构,相对于线、面以及菱形禁行策略,具有更好的实用价值。同时,提出了禁行割集的求解方法。仿真算例表明,基于上述方法得到的拥堵区域禁行策略设计方案,能够有效的抑制拥堵传播,降低出行延误,提高城市交通系统的性能。
(5)针对事件黑点的非重复性交通拥堵,研究了可变信息板的选址优化问题。对可变信息板的分流机制进行假设和建模并针对可变信息板的选址问题设计了基于遗传算法的求解方法。仿真算例表明,基于选址优化的可变信息板对缓解事故黑点路段的非重复性交通拥堵具有很好的作用,并具有较强的鲁棒性。在此基础上,分析了影响可变信息板选址的因素及其作用机理。结合基于拥堵区域割集的禁行策略,分析了两者共同作用的效果。仿真结果表明,如果将可变信息板诱导和区域禁行相结合,那么两者在时空上的互补性使得组合策略能够更好的抑制拥堵传播,降低出行延误,改善系统的性能。
Currently, traffic congestion has become one of main bottleneck which restricts the development of urban city and has influence on the quality of daily life. To date, traffic management agency lack of scientific understanding of the mechanism of traffic congestion propagation and the spatial-temporal distribution of incident based non-recurrent congestion. While making certain congestion control strategies, people who dependent on the experience need for more theoretical support. Thus, in-depth study of spatial-temporal distribution of incident-based traffic flow and systematic analysis on the impact of control strategies on non-recurrent congestion propagation are needed. It is also important to locate optimal information broadcast, make reasonable route guidance and control strategies to alleviate urban traffic congestion.
In order to analysis the effect of information broadcasting, route guidance and control strategies on spatial-temporal distribution of incident based non-recurrent congestion, the cellular transmission model based congestion propagation simulation is found. Based on this model and combining with the dynamic route choice model of trip makers, the mentioned above issue were studied and evaluated. The main contents of the dissertation are summarized as follows:
(1) To introduce the method of studying on traffic congestion propagation mechanism and analysis of the propagation evolution principle of traffic flow. On this basis, the calculated method of actual link travel time, real-time link travel time and corresponding route travel time are proposed. Based on the output of CTM simulation, the traffic congestion evaluation system is found which comprise traffic congestion delay, traffic congestion scope, traffic congestion duration, average instantaneous link travel time, average link travel time and system total cost to evaluate the spatial-temporal distribution of incidnet-based congestion.
(2) Based on the CTM simulation, the impact of factors such as traffic condition, reduction of link capacity, incident location and duration on the congestion propagation. The simulation results show that the factors mentioned above will affect the propagate speed, scope, intensity, duration greatly. The kinematic wave theory is able to explain simulation results well.
(3) Information of real-time traffic condition is able to alleviate incident-based congestion. The dynamic route choice behavior of trip makers with information providing is modeled based on the dynamic stochastic user equilibrium principle in this paper. On this basis, the affect of the quality of information, the proportion of trip makers equipped with information device and the compliance rate of real-time traffic information are analysised. The simulation results show that the factors mentioned above have great effect on the alleviation of congestion.
(4) Based on the spatial-temporal distribution of incident-based non-recurrent congestion, the cutset-based congestion control strategies are provided. The reasonable temporary vehicles bans are able to prevent the propagation of congestion to upstream and promote dissipation of the queue. Based on the assumption of route choice behavior of trip makers under temporary vehicles bans, the optimal design method of temporary vehicles bans is studied. The practicability of cutset-based temporary vehicles bans is better than others such as line-based temporary vehicles bans, area-based temporary vehicles bans and diamond shape-based temporary vehicles bans. The simulation results show that the proposed cutset-based temporary vehicles bans are able to alleviate traffic congestion and improve the system performance of urban city network.
(5) Based on the CTM simulation and methods of calculating real-time travel time, the divert mechanism and location of variable message board is studied. The GA-based algorithm is proposed to solve this issue. The simulation results show that the variable message board with optimal located are able to alleviate non-recurrent traffic congestion on black-spot links and have good robustness. Combining the variable message board with temporary vehicles bans, the spatial-temporal complementary of them will make these strategies more suitable for preventing the congestion propagation, reducing delay and improving system performance.
为了分析信息发布、路径诱导以及拥堵控制策略对突发事件下交通流时空分布规律的影响,本文首先总结了基于元胞传输模型的交通拥堵传播模型。在此基础上,结合出行者动态路径选择模型,对信息发布策略的效果、基于禁行的拥堵传播控制策略设计以及可变信息板选址等问题进行了研究,对不同策略的作用机制和效果进行了分析评价。具体来讲,本文的主要研究工作有如下几个方面：
(1)介绍了应用元胞传输模型对交通流传播演化进行仿真的方法。包括路段实际走行时间、路段瞬时走行时间和相应的路径走行时间计算方法。针对ITS应用的特点,提出了路段实时走行时间的概念与获得方法。介绍了如何根据元胞传输模型的仿真输出,建立评价交通拥堵程度的指标体系,其评价指标主要包括：交通拥堵延误、交通拥堵规模、交通拥堵持续时间、平均瞬时速度、平均行程速度、系统总出行阻抗等,用于对突发事件所造成的非重复性交通拥堵时空指标和强度进行评价。
(2)基于元胞传输模型仿真,分析了突发事件下不同因素对非重复性交通拥堵传播的影响,主要包括：事件发生时的路况条件、事件导致道路通行能力的降低程度、事件在路段上发生的相对位置以及事件持续时间等。仿真结果表明,以上因素都会对交通拥堵的传播速度、范围、强度、持续时间等指标产生较大影响。这些现象产生的原因,可以通过运动波理论得到很好的解释。
(3)发布实时交通信息,是缓解城市中突发事件所造成的交通拥堵问题的重要手段。本文采用随机动态用户均衡模型,提出了实时交通信息影响下的出行者动态路径选择行为模型以及信息响应行为模型。在此基础上,探讨了不同交通条件和事件特性下,交通信息的质量差异、所占比例以及信息响应率等因素对信息发布策略作用效果的影响。仿真结果显示,路况信息对缓解交通拥堵的效果,与当时的交通状况以及信息特性有密切关系。
(4)根据突发事件下非重复性交通拥堵传播的时空分布规律,提出了禁行区域割集的定义以及基于拥堵区域割集的交通拥堵传播控制策略。通过设计合理的区域禁行控制策略,可以抑制拥堵向上游区域的进一步传播,同时促使拥堵路段上的排队启动,加快拥堵消散速度。基于禁行下的出行者路径选择行为假设,提出了禁行区域的优化设计方法。该禁行策略考虑了交通拥堵传播的空间结构,相对于线、面以及菱形禁行策略,具有更好的实用价值。同时,提出了禁行割集的求解方法。仿真算例表明,基于上述方法得到的拥堵区域禁行策略设计方案,能够有效的抑制拥堵传播,降低出行延误,提高城市交通系统的性能。
(5)针对事件黑点的非重复性交通拥堵,研究了可变信息板的选址优化问题。对可变信息板的分流机制进行假设和建模并针对可变信息板的选址问题设计了基于遗传算法的求解方法。仿真算例表明,基于选址优化的可变信息板对缓解事故黑点路段的非重复性交通拥堵具有很好的作用,并具有较强的鲁棒性。在此基础上,分析了影响可变信息板选址的因素及其作用机理。结合基于拥堵区域割集的禁行策略,分析了两者共同作用的效果。仿真结果表明,如果将可变信息板诱导和区域禁行相结合,那么两者在时空上的互补性使得组合策略能够更好的抑制拥堵传播,降低出行延误,改善系统的性能。
Currently, traffic congestion has become one of main bottleneck which restricts the development of urban city and has influence on the quality of daily life. To date, traffic management agency lack of scientific understanding of the mechanism of traffic congestion propagation and the spatial-temporal distribution of incident based non-recurrent congestion. While making certain congestion control strategies, people who dependent on the experience need for more theoretical support. Thus, in-depth study of spatial-temporal distribution of incident-based traffic flow and systematic analysis on the impact of control strategies on non-recurrent congestion propagation are needed. It is also important to locate optimal information broadcast, make reasonable route guidance and control strategies to alleviate urban traffic congestion.
In order to analysis the effect of information broadcasting, route guidance and control strategies on spatial-temporal distribution of incident based non-recurrent congestion, the cellular transmission model based congestion propagation simulation is found. Based on this model and combining with the dynamic route choice model of trip makers, the mentioned above issue were studied and evaluated. The main contents of the dissertation are summarized as follows:
(1) To introduce the method of studying on traffic congestion propagation mechanism and analysis of the propagation evolution principle of traffic flow. On this basis, the calculated method of actual link travel time, real-time link travel time and corresponding route travel time are proposed. Based on the output of CTM simulation, the traffic congestion evaluation system is found which comprise traffic congestion delay, traffic congestion scope, traffic congestion duration, average instantaneous link travel time, average link travel time and system total cost to evaluate the spatial-temporal distribution of incidnet-based congestion.
(2) Based on the CTM simulation, the impact of factors such as traffic condition, reduction of link capacity, incident location and duration on the congestion propagation. The simulation results show that the factors mentioned above will affect the propagate speed, scope, intensity, duration greatly. The kinematic wave theory is able to explain simulation results well.
(3) Information of real-time traffic condition is able to alleviate incident-based congestion. The dynamic route choice behavior of trip makers with information providing is modeled based on the dynamic stochastic user equilibrium principle in this paper. On this basis, the affect of the quality of information, the proportion of trip makers equipped with information device and the compliance rate of real-time traffic information are analysised. The simulation results show that the factors mentioned above have great effect on the alleviation of congestion.
(4) Based on the spatial-temporal distribution of incident-based non-recurrent congestion, the cutset-based congestion control strategies are provided. The reasonable temporary vehicles bans are able to prevent the propagation of congestion to upstream and promote dissipation of the queue. Based on the assumption of route choice behavior of trip makers under temporary vehicles bans, the optimal design method of temporary vehicles bans is studied. The practicability of cutset-based temporary vehicles bans is better than others such as line-based temporary vehicles bans, area-based temporary vehicles bans and diamond shape-based temporary vehicles bans. The simulation results show that the proposed cutset-based temporary vehicles bans are able to alleviate traffic congestion and improve the system performance of urban city network.
(5) Based on the CTM simulation and methods of calculating real-time travel time, the divert mechanism and location of variable message board is studied. The GA-based algorithm is proposed to solve this issue. The simulation results show that the variable message board with optimal located are able to alleviate non-recurrent traffic congestion on black-spot links and have good robustness. Combining the variable message board with temporary vehicles bans, the spatial-temporal complementary of them will make these strategies more suitable for preventing the congestion propagation, reducing delay and improving system performance.
引文
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