复合型压缩天然气加气站供应模式研究
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摘要
压缩天然气（CNG）作为燃气供应的一种有效方式，运营方式灵活，日益成为车用及管网未达区域民用市场共同的气源，逐渐形成复合型压缩天然气加气站供应系统。本文对该系统的核心环节进行了研究：加气站站型适用性比较研究、影响加气站规模的储气安全性研究、加气站供应规律研究、运输调度的合理优化研究，从而使燃气供应系统更合理、安全，促进国内压缩天然气行业的发展。
本文主要内容如下：
从国内压缩天然气行业发展的研究背景出发，以北京市压缩天然气车用、民用两大供应系统为例，对其现状进行了分析，在综合分析国、内外研究目标的基础上，明确了压缩天然气加气站方面的研究重点和存在的问题，确定了复合型压缩天然气供应系统模式的研究思路；针对单一母子站供应系统的弊端，将车用气常规站作为（母子站供应系统）的有效补充；采用模糊综合评价模型对母子站和常规站进行了综合分析，为合理匹配各种站型提供指导；通过建立稳态（静态）、瞬变流状态的数学模型，采用流体稳态、动态仿真计算软件，对加气站周边管网进行了不同工况条件的静、动态模拟分析，对模型参数的确定进行了研究，明确了进行加气站选址需要满足的天然气管网条件。
运用综合分析方法，结合人工神经网络模型、线性回归模型和ARMA模型的优缺点，引入主成分分析法PCA，参考大量历史数据，建立了复合型加气站的压缩天然气负荷预测模型，实际预测效果良好；通过研究压缩天然气负荷全年各段时间变化规律，在不同时段采用相应的模型预测，包括神经网络、时间序列、线性回归等，使得全年综合预测模型最优化。以北京市为例，对历史数据进行了用气规律分析，得出了加气（母子）站年、月、日、时不均匀系数，为复合型压缩天然气加气站的规划布局、负荷分配提供预测方法和依据。
以影响加气站供应规模和安全间距的储气设施为典型（分析对象），确定了储气利用率的提高方法和储气瓶组的分配方案；通过对可能引发储气瓶组的泄漏火灾事故的调查，构建了CNG储气瓶组的故障树，对实例进行了危险等级的判断。借鉴管道失效泄漏模型，对储气设施泄漏发生火灾的个人、社会风险进行了分析研究，为衡量加气站的安全措施、建站规模提供了分析方法。
通过建立加气环节的转运车排队模型、多车场（目标）运输的最小费用模型，对母子加气站供应系统中的CNG转运车的运输问题，进行了全过程的优化研究，应用实例验证了模型的可行性；引入运输风险指数，作为评价CNG转运车的运输道路事故和泄漏事故及后果的指标，构造了多目标路径优化模型。为优化CNG转运车的运输调度系统提供了理论依据和方法。
以北京市压缩天然气供应系统为例，把加气站作为城市天然气管网的有机组成部分进行研究，利用建立的管网动、静态负荷预测模型、失效泄露模型、运输模型，对影响加气站发展规模的站型模式、管网条件、负荷变化规律、储气规模和危险范围及连接站点的运输方式进行了分析总结；取得的储气设施火灾影响程度、加气站负荷不均匀系数、运输合理调配方案，可为其他城市的相关产业发展提供参考。研究结果表明，加气站对管网瞬态影响、转运车运输过程中的风险评价，涉及到流体分析、自控联网、交通、环境等多方面动态因素，应该与燃气管网的SCADA系统、交通指挥系统等联动控制，统一规划和调度。
Compressed natural gas (CNG), as an effective way of gas supplywith flexible operations is increasingly becoming common gas sourcemarket for vehicle and civil use especially in the regional area lackingpipeline network. CNG gradually composite and form compositecompressed natural gas filling station supply system. The paper studiedthe core part of the system, comparison of the applicability of fillingstation type, gas stations filling scale and safety evaluation, the regulationtechnology of constant flow rate and variable in the load supply stations,optimization of scheduling for Transfer Vehicle transportation, so that ithelps the gas supply system become more reasonable, safe to promotedomestic compressed natural gas industry.(The article reads as follows:)
Based on the research on the development of domestic compressednatural gas industry, the paper analyzed current status of both vehicle andcivil use of compressed natural gas vehicles in Beijing, didcomprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign research objectives, weidentified research priorities and problems to determine the compositecompressed natural gas supply system. Conventional gas station for thevehicle as mother station supply system is an effective complement torelieve shortcomings of the load supply systems under current mother anddaughter gas supply station condition. The article conducted acomprehensive analysis using Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation modeland conventional mother station as reasonable guidance to match avariety of station types and created steady-state (static), the mathematicalmodel of transient flow state. The network of filling stations around thedifferent working conditions was analyzed by using the fluid state anddynamic simulation software to determine the model parameters anddefined the location of the stations need to meet the natural gas pipelinenetwork conditions.
The paper established a composite compressed natural gas fillingstations load forecasting model with actual forecast good results throughthe use of comprehensive analysis, with Artificial neural network model,ARMA models of linear regression model and the advantages anddisadvantages. Natural gas load throughout the year by studying the compression of thetime variation of at different times with the corresponding modelprediction, including neural networks, time series, linear regression,making full-year consolidated forecast model optimization. Case Study ofBeijing, the historical data were analyzed using gas laws, obtained gas(mother) station, month, day and time coefficient of uniformity for thecomplex layout of compressed natural gas filling stations, load distributionprovide predictive method and basis.
The paper determine the appropriate equipment required to use theproduct in terms of safely utilization of gas cylinders and group sharingby analyzing influence factors in the supply stations and the securitydistance scale storage facilities for the typical (of objects). CNG cylindersconstructed fault tree group of instances of dangerous levels of judgmentsthrough fire incident investigation, by the leakage of gas cylinder. Theactual example is used to determine the risk factors. Analysis method wasestablished by studying the leakage model for pipeline failure, leakage ofgas storage facilities, fire personal, social risk to measure the securitystations.
Gas sectors through the establishment of additional transit vehiclesqueuing model, multi-depot (the target) the minimum transportation costmodel, Of the mother CNG filling stations in the supply system oftransport transit vehicles to carry out a full process of optimization,Application Examples verify the feasibility of the model; the introductionof transportation risk index, as the evaluation of road transport CNGtransit vehicles and the consequences of accidents and leakage indicators,structural optimization model for multi-destination path. CNG transitvehicles for optimizing transportation scheduling system provides atheoretical basis and methods. Compressed natural gas supply system inBeijing, for example, the city gas pipeline network stations as an integralpart of the study, Pipe network built using the static and dynamic loadforecasting model, failure leakage model, transport model, Stations on thescale of development of the station-type model, the network conditions,load variation, storage size and hazardous areas and means oftransportation connecting the site were analyzed and summarized;Storage facilities made of fire impact, filling uneven load factor,transportation and reasonable allocation scheme for the development ofrelated industries in other cities to provide information. The results showthat filling of the pipe network transients, transfer vehicle duringtransport risk assessment, related to the fluid analysis, automationnetworking, transportation, environment, and many other dynamic factors,Gas pipeline network should SCADA systems, traffic control systems, linkage control, unified planning and scheduling.
本文主要内容如下：
从国内压缩天然气行业发展的研究背景出发，以北京市压缩天然气车用、民用两大供应系统为例，对其现状进行了分析，在综合分析国、内外研究目标的基础上，明确了压缩天然气加气站方面的研究重点和存在的问题，确定了复合型压缩天然气供应系统模式的研究思路；针对单一母子站供应系统的弊端，将车用气常规站作为（母子站供应系统）的有效补充；采用模糊综合评价模型对母子站和常规站进行了综合分析，为合理匹配各种站型提供指导；通过建立稳态（静态）、瞬变流状态的数学模型，采用流体稳态、动态仿真计算软件，对加气站周边管网进行了不同工况条件的静、动态模拟分析，对模型参数的确定进行了研究，明确了进行加气站选址需要满足的天然气管网条件。
运用综合分析方法，结合人工神经网络模型、线性回归模型和ARMA模型的优缺点，引入主成分分析法PCA，参考大量历史数据，建立了复合型加气站的压缩天然气负荷预测模型，实际预测效果良好；通过研究压缩天然气负荷全年各段时间变化规律，在不同时段采用相应的模型预测，包括神经网络、时间序列、线性回归等，使得全年综合预测模型最优化。以北京市为例，对历史数据进行了用气规律分析，得出了加气（母子）站年、月、日、时不均匀系数，为复合型压缩天然气加气站的规划布局、负荷分配提供预测方法和依据。
以影响加气站供应规模和安全间距的储气设施为典型（分析对象），确定了储气利用率的提高方法和储气瓶组的分配方案；通过对可能引发储气瓶组的泄漏火灾事故的调查，构建了CNG储气瓶组的故障树，对实例进行了危险等级的判断。借鉴管道失效泄漏模型，对储气设施泄漏发生火灾的个人、社会风险进行了分析研究，为衡量加气站的安全措施、建站规模提供了分析方法。
通过建立加气环节的转运车排队模型、多车场（目标）运输的最小费用模型，对母子加气站供应系统中的CNG转运车的运输问题，进行了全过程的优化研究，应用实例验证了模型的可行性；引入运输风险指数，作为评价CNG转运车的运输道路事故和泄漏事故及后果的指标，构造了多目标路径优化模型。为优化CNG转运车的运输调度系统提供了理论依据和方法。
以北京市压缩天然气供应系统为例，把加气站作为城市天然气管网的有机组成部分进行研究，利用建立的管网动、静态负荷预测模型、失效泄露模型、运输模型，对影响加气站发展规模的站型模式、管网条件、负荷变化规律、储气规模和危险范围及连接站点的运输方式进行了分析总结；取得的储气设施火灾影响程度、加气站负荷不均匀系数、运输合理调配方案，可为其他城市的相关产业发展提供参考。研究结果表明，加气站对管网瞬态影响、转运车运输过程中的风险评价，涉及到流体分析、自控联网、交通、环境等多方面动态因素，应该与燃气管网的SCADA系统、交通指挥系统等联动控制，统一规划和调度。
Compressed natural gas (CNG), as an effective way of gas supplywith flexible operations is increasingly becoming common gas sourcemarket for vehicle and civil use especially in the regional area lackingpipeline network. CNG gradually composite and form compositecompressed natural gas filling station supply system. The paper studiedthe core part of the system, comparison of the applicability of fillingstation type, gas stations filling scale and safety evaluation, the regulationtechnology of constant flow rate and variable in the load supply stations,optimization of scheduling for Transfer Vehicle transportation, so that ithelps the gas supply system become more reasonable, safe to promotedomestic compressed natural gas industry.(The article reads as follows:)
Based on the research on the development of domestic compressednatural gas industry, the paper analyzed current status of both vehicle andcivil use of compressed natural gas vehicles in Beijing, didcomprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign research objectives, weidentified research priorities and problems to determine the compositecompressed natural gas supply system. Conventional gas station for thevehicle as mother station supply system is an effective complement torelieve shortcomings of the load supply systems under current mother anddaughter gas supply station condition. The article conducted acomprehensive analysis using Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation modeland conventional mother station as reasonable guidance to match avariety of station types and created steady-state (static), the mathematicalmodel of transient flow state. The network of filling stations around thedifferent working conditions was analyzed by using the fluid state anddynamic simulation software to determine the model parameters anddefined the location of the stations need to meet the natural gas pipelinenetwork conditions.
The paper established a composite compressed natural gas fillingstations load forecasting model with actual forecast good results throughthe use of comprehensive analysis, with Artificial neural network model,ARMA models of linear regression model and the advantages anddisadvantages. Natural gas load throughout the year by studying the compression of thetime variation of at different times with the corresponding modelprediction, including neural networks, time series, linear regression,making full-year consolidated forecast model optimization. Case Study ofBeijing, the historical data were analyzed using gas laws, obtained gas(mother) station, month, day and time coefficient of uniformity for thecomplex layout of compressed natural gas filling stations, load distributionprovide predictive method and basis.
The paper determine the appropriate equipment required to use theproduct in terms of safely utilization of gas cylinders and group sharingby analyzing influence factors in the supply stations and the securitydistance scale storage facilities for the typical (of objects). CNG cylindersconstructed fault tree group of instances of dangerous levels of judgmentsthrough fire incident investigation, by the leakage of gas cylinder. Theactual example is used to determine the risk factors. Analysis method wasestablished by studying the leakage model for pipeline failure, leakage ofgas storage facilities, fire personal, social risk to measure the securitystations.
Gas sectors through the establishment of additional transit vehiclesqueuing model, multi-depot (the target) the minimum transportation costmodel, Of the mother CNG filling stations in the supply system oftransport transit vehicles to carry out a full process of optimization,Application Examples verify the feasibility of the model; the introductionof transportation risk index, as the evaluation of road transport CNGtransit vehicles and the consequences of accidents and leakage indicators,structural optimization model for multi-destination path. CNG transitvehicles for optimizing transportation scheduling system provides atheoretical basis and methods. Compressed natural gas supply system inBeijing, for example, the city gas pipeline network stations as an integralpart of the study, Pipe network built using the static and dynamic loadforecasting model, failure leakage model, transport model, Stations on thescale of development of the station-type model, the network conditions,load variation, storage size and hazardous areas and means oftransportation connecting the site were analyzed and summarized;Storage facilities made of fire impact, filling uneven load factor,transportation and reasonable allocation scheme for the development ofrelated industries in other cities to provide information. The results showthat filling of the pipe network transients, transfer vehicle duringtransport risk assessment, related to the fluid analysis, automationnetworking, transportation, environment, and many other dynamic factors,Gas pipeline network should SCADA systems, traffic control systems, linkage control, unified planning and scheduling.
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