中国金融发展对农民收入增长影响的理论与实证研究
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摘要
本文意在研究中国金融发展对农民收入增长的影响渠道及影响效应。改革开放初期,农民人均纯收入稳定快速增长,但是伴随着经济的快速发展,收入差距特别是城乡收入差距持续扩大,尤其是20世纪90年代以来,农民收入增长缓慢,城乡居民收入差距问题日益严重。缩小城乡收入差距,增加农民收入不仅仅是解决“三农问题”的关键,同时也关乎我国整体经济增长的大局,惟有农民收入水平切实得以较快地提高,才能从根本上改变我国城乡收入差距的扩大对经济增长的抑制效应。
从现实层面上看,增加农民收入的实现途径主要包括包括培育和完善农村要素市场,保持农业的稳定、持续发展和推动农村劳动力转移等。所有这些都直接或间接依赖于农村金融和城镇金融的发展和支持。然而,实际上考察中国经济、金融发展和农民收入增长的相关指标可以发现,在中国经济持续高速增长、城镇金融发展迅速的同时,农民收入增长并没有出现与之相协调的景象。同时,农民收入主要由农民家庭经营纯收入和农民工资性收入组成,根据对农民收入结构变化特征的分析可知,农民越来越依赖于工资性收入,因此,影响和决定农民收入的因素应该由影响和决定来自农民家庭经营纯收入和农民工资性收入这两种收入渠道的因素构成。本文认为,金融发展对农民收入的影响主要是由农村金融发展对农民家庭经营纯收入的影响和城镇金融发展对农民工资性收入的影响共同决定的,农村金融发展和城镇金融发展对农民收入的影响主要取决于农村物质资本投资的增加、农村人力资本投资的增加、城镇产业结构的变化和农村剩余劳动力的转移。
与以往的研究相比,本文的创新之处在于:把城镇金融发展这个要素引入到农民收入增长的分析中,为金融发展对农民收入增长的影响机制建立起一个较为完整的分析框架,认为农村金融发展主要影响农民家庭经营纯收入,城镇金融发展主要影响农民工资性收入;同时分析了农村金融发展对农民家庭经营纯收入的影响机制和城镇金融发展对农民工资性收入的影响机制,并利用实际统计数据对上述理论解释进行了实证检验。
从整体结构来看,本文采用了现状描述—模型推导—实证分析的研究思路。主要内容如下:
首先,本文对中国金融发展影响农民收入增长进行了理论解释。在“贷款难、担保难”的农村融资困境现象之下,“二元”金融发展制度及相对应的金融发展结构是更深层次的原因,在此基础上,分析了农村金融发展对农民家庭经营纯收入增长的影响机制和城镇金融发展对农民工资性收入增长的影响机制。本章认为,农村金融发展通过影响农村地区的物质资本投资和人力资本投资而影响到农民家庭经营纯收入的增长,城镇金融发展通过影响农村剩余劳动力转移和城市经济结构变化而影响到农民工资性收入的增长,从而农村金融发展和城镇金融发展通过四条渠道来最终影响农民收入增长的,即通过影响农村物质资本投资、人力资本投资、农村剩余劳动力转移和经济结构变化来共同影响了农民整体收入的增长,因此,必须制定相关政策和措施保证每一条影响渠道的畅通,才能充分发挥金融发展对农民收入增长的影响效应。
其次,本文对中国农民收入水平及收入结构的变迁过程进行了分析。改革开放初期,农民人均纯收入稳定快速增长,然而近些年来,农民收入增长缓慢,远远低于城镇居民收入的增长幅度。从农民收入构成上看,家庭经营纯收入仍然是农民收入的主要来源,但其重要性呈现出逐渐减弱的趋势;工资性收入在农民收入中的比重不断上升;农民收入增长逐渐由过去主要依靠家庭经营纯收入的增长转变为主要依靠工资性收入的增长。同时,非农业收入在农民收入中所占的比重不断上升,农业收入在农民收入中所占的比重不断下降,目前非农业收入的比重已经超过农业收入的比重;农民收入增长已由过去农业收入和非农业收入并驾齐驱转变为更多地依靠非农业收入的增长。
然后,本文采用统计和计量分析方法,对中国农民收入状况、农村物质资本投资、农户人力资本投资、产业结构变化、农村剩余劳动力转移、农村金融发展状况和城镇金融发展状况进行了测度。在此基础上,首先实证检验农村物质资本投资、农户人力资本投资、产业结构变化和农村剩余劳动力转移对中国农民收入增长的影响;然后实证检验中国农村金融发展和中国城镇金融发展对农村物质资本投资、农户人力资本投资、产业结构变化和农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应;最后对中国农村金融发展和中国城镇金融发展对农民收入的作用进行检验。
最后,本文在总结相关结论的基础上,给出相关政策建议。认为应该加强农村金融产权制度建设、大力发展新型农村金融机构和农村小额信贷、继续深化农村信用社改革、实现农村正规金融和农村非正规金融的竞争与互补、继续推进各种农业保险和实行区域性的金融货币政策,促进地区金融均衡发展。
This paper intends to analyze the influence channels and influence extent of flanancial development on fanner income increase in China. With the fast development of the economy, the urban-rural income gap is becoming larger and larger during the reform and open period .Especially after 1990, the farmer income has been increasing slowly, and the urban-rural income gap problem is becoming more and more serious. Lowering the urban-rural income gap is not only the key of solving the agricultural problem, but also the key of our whole ecominc growth and development. As long as the farmer income has been really improved, we can eventually change the side effect of the urban-rural income gap on the ecominc growth and development.
The channels of increasing farmer income include developing the rural factor market, moving the rural labors, stabilizing the agricultural industry, and all of the above depend on the rural financia development and the urban financial development. However, analyzing the index of China's economic and financial development, we can find that with the quick development of China's economic and urban financial development, the farmer income has been grown slowly. According to the analysis of the source structure of farmer income, the fanner income from wages and salaries has been playing a more and more important part in the whole farmer income.Therefore ,all the factors that influence the fanner income from household operations and farmer income from wages and salaries will togther determine the farmer income. This paper finds that not only the rural fiancial development but also the whole financial development will influence the farmer income by different channels and has made an empirical research on the influence mechanism.
The innovation of this paper is that we put the urban financial development into the the analysis framework. The rural fiancial development mainly influences the farmer income from household operations and the urban financial development mainly influences farmer income from wages and salaries. This paper has seperataly given the theretical model of rural fiancial development influencing the farmer operating income and the urban financial development mainly influencing the farmer salary income. This paper has also used the statistical data to make an empirical research.
The research thought of the whole paper is from circumstance description to the theoretical mdel to the empirical study .The main content is the following.
Firstly, this paper theoretically anylayzes the the effect of fianancial development on farmer income increase. The double sides of financial development institution and financial development structure are the deep cause of the rural financing difficulty. This paper has seperataly given the theretical model of rural fiancial development influencing the farmer income from household operations and the urban financial development mainly influencing farmer income from wages and salaries. The lag-behind of the rural fiancial development has greatly influenced the farmer income from household operations, and the the urban financial development and the urban economic development has critically improved the farmer income from wages and salaries. In the influencing factors of farmer income, the accumulation of rural physical capital, the rural human capital, the industry structure and and the rural labors transfer are the direct factors. The rural fiancial development and urban financial development influence the fanner income by influencing the above direct factors.
Secondly, this paper analyzes the process of the Cinese farmer income and the source structure. In the early period of the reform and open era, the farmer income has stably and quickly increased. However, in recent years, the farmer income has slowly increased. The farmer income from household operations and farmer income from wages and salaries are the majority of the farmer income.
Thirdly, this paper has measured the farmer inome, rural fiancial development and urban financial development. This paper has used the statistical data to make an empirical research on the effect of rural fianancial development and urban financial development on farmer income increase. This paper has used the data to examine the effect of rural physical capital investment, the rural human capital, the industry structure and and the rural labors transfer on Chinese farmer income; and then examines the effect of rural financial development and urban financial development on the rural physical capital investment, the rural human capital, the industry structure and and the rural labors transfer; and lastly examines the effect of rural financial development and urban financial development on the farmer income with regional statistical data.
Lastly, this paper gives the relative results and policy suggestions. Therefore, in order to guide the balanced development of financial industry and reduce urban-rural income disparity, measures such as strengthening the rural financial property rights, lowering the threshold for financial services, developing new kinds of rural financial institutions and micro-credit, deepening the rural credit unions reform, promoting competition and complementarities between formal finance and informal finance, and preventing the further loss of rural financial resources should be taken.
从现实层面上看,增加农民收入的实现途径主要包括包括培育和完善农村要素市场,保持农业的稳定、持续发展和推动农村劳动力转移等。所有这些都直接或间接依赖于农村金融和城镇金融的发展和支持。然而,实际上考察中国经济、金融发展和农民收入增长的相关指标可以发现,在中国经济持续高速增长、城镇金融发展迅速的同时,农民收入增长并没有出现与之相协调的景象。同时,农民收入主要由农民家庭经营纯收入和农民工资性收入组成,根据对农民收入结构变化特征的分析可知,农民越来越依赖于工资性收入,因此,影响和决定农民收入的因素应该由影响和决定来自农民家庭经营纯收入和农民工资性收入这两种收入渠道的因素构成。本文认为,金融发展对农民收入的影响主要是由农村金融发展对农民家庭经营纯收入的影响和城镇金融发展对农民工资性收入的影响共同决定的,农村金融发展和城镇金融发展对农民收入的影响主要取决于农村物质资本投资的增加、农村人力资本投资的增加、城镇产业结构的变化和农村剩余劳动力的转移。
与以往的研究相比,本文的创新之处在于:把城镇金融发展这个要素引入到农民收入增长的分析中,为金融发展对农民收入增长的影响机制建立起一个较为完整的分析框架,认为农村金融发展主要影响农民家庭经营纯收入,城镇金融发展主要影响农民工资性收入;同时分析了农村金融发展对农民家庭经营纯收入的影响机制和城镇金融发展对农民工资性收入的影响机制,并利用实际统计数据对上述理论解释进行了实证检验。
从整体结构来看,本文采用了现状描述—模型推导—实证分析的研究思路。主要内容如下:
首先,本文对中国金融发展影响农民收入增长进行了理论解释。在“贷款难、担保难”的农村融资困境现象之下,“二元”金融发展制度及相对应的金融发展结构是更深层次的原因,在此基础上,分析了农村金融发展对农民家庭经营纯收入增长的影响机制和城镇金融发展对农民工资性收入增长的影响机制。本章认为,农村金融发展通过影响农村地区的物质资本投资和人力资本投资而影响到农民家庭经营纯收入的增长,城镇金融发展通过影响农村剩余劳动力转移和城市经济结构变化而影响到农民工资性收入的增长,从而农村金融发展和城镇金融发展通过四条渠道来最终影响农民收入增长的,即通过影响农村物质资本投资、人力资本投资、农村剩余劳动力转移和经济结构变化来共同影响了农民整体收入的增长,因此,必须制定相关政策和措施保证每一条影响渠道的畅通,才能充分发挥金融发展对农民收入增长的影响效应。
其次,本文对中国农民收入水平及收入结构的变迁过程进行了分析。改革开放初期,农民人均纯收入稳定快速增长,然而近些年来,农民收入增长缓慢,远远低于城镇居民收入的增长幅度。从农民收入构成上看,家庭经营纯收入仍然是农民收入的主要来源,但其重要性呈现出逐渐减弱的趋势;工资性收入在农民收入中的比重不断上升;农民收入增长逐渐由过去主要依靠家庭经营纯收入的增长转变为主要依靠工资性收入的增长。同时,非农业收入在农民收入中所占的比重不断上升,农业收入在农民收入中所占的比重不断下降,目前非农业收入的比重已经超过农业收入的比重;农民收入增长已由过去农业收入和非农业收入并驾齐驱转变为更多地依靠非农业收入的增长。
然后,本文采用统计和计量分析方法,对中国农民收入状况、农村物质资本投资、农户人力资本投资、产业结构变化、农村剩余劳动力转移、农村金融发展状况和城镇金融发展状况进行了测度。在此基础上,首先实证检验农村物质资本投资、农户人力资本投资、产业结构变化和农村剩余劳动力转移对中国农民收入增长的影响;然后实证检验中国农村金融发展和中国城镇金融发展对农村物质资本投资、农户人力资本投资、产业结构变化和农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应;最后对中国农村金融发展和中国城镇金融发展对农民收入的作用进行检验。
最后,本文在总结相关结论的基础上,给出相关政策建议。认为应该加强农村金融产权制度建设、大力发展新型农村金融机构和农村小额信贷、继续深化农村信用社改革、实现农村正规金融和农村非正规金融的竞争与互补、继续推进各种农业保险和实行区域性的金融货币政策,促进地区金融均衡发展。
This paper intends to analyze the influence channels and influence extent of flanancial development on fanner income increase in China. With the fast development of the economy, the urban-rural income gap is becoming larger and larger during the reform and open period .Especially after 1990, the farmer income has been increasing slowly, and the urban-rural income gap problem is becoming more and more serious. Lowering the urban-rural income gap is not only the key of solving the agricultural problem, but also the key of our whole ecominc growth and development. As long as the farmer income has been really improved, we can eventually change the side effect of the urban-rural income gap on the ecominc growth and development.
The channels of increasing farmer income include developing the rural factor market, moving the rural labors, stabilizing the agricultural industry, and all of the above depend on the rural financia development and the urban financial development. However, analyzing the index of China's economic and financial development, we can find that with the quick development of China's economic and urban financial development, the farmer income has been grown slowly. According to the analysis of the source structure of farmer income, the fanner income from wages and salaries has been playing a more and more important part in the whole farmer income.Therefore ,all the factors that influence the fanner income from household operations and farmer income from wages and salaries will togther determine the farmer income. This paper finds that not only the rural fiancial development but also the whole financial development will influence the farmer income by different channels and has made an empirical research on the influence mechanism.
The innovation of this paper is that we put the urban financial development into the the analysis framework. The rural fiancial development mainly influences the farmer income from household operations and the urban financial development mainly influences farmer income from wages and salaries. This paper has seperataly given the theretical model of rural fiancial development influencing the farmer operating income and the urban financial development mainly influencing the farmer salary income. This paper has also used the statistical data to make an empirical research.
The research thought of the whole paper is from circumstance description to the theoretical mdel to the empirical study .The main content is the following.
Firstly, this paper theoretically anylayzes the the effect of fianancial development on farmer income increase. The double sides of financial development institution and financial development structure are the deep cause of the rural financing difficulty. This paper has seperataly given the theretical model of rural fiancial development influencing the farmer income from household operations and the urban financial development mainly influencing farmer income from wages and salaries. The lag-behind of the rural fiancial development has greatly influenced the farmer income from household operations, and the the urban financial development and the urban economic development has critically improved the farmer income from wages and salaries. In the influencing factors of farmer income, the accumulation of rural physical capital, the rural human capital, the industry structure and and the rural labors transfer are the direct factors. The rural fiancial development and urban financial development influence the fanner income by influencing the above direct factors.
Secondly, this paper analyzes the process of the Cinese farmer income and the source structure. In the early period of the reform and open era, the farmer income has stably and quickly increased. However, in recent years, the farmer income has slowly increased. The farmer income from household operations and farmer income from wages and salaries are the majority of the farmer income.
Thirdly, this paper has measured the farmer inome, rural fiancial development and urban financial development. This paper has used the statistical data to make an empirical research on the effect of rural fianancial development and urban financial development on farmer income increase. This paper has used the data to examine the effect of rural physical capital investment, the rural human capital, the industry structure and and the rural labors transfer on Chinese farmer income; and then examines the effect of rural financial development and urban financial development on the rural physical capital investment, the rural human capital, the industry structure and and the rural labors transfer; and lastly examines the effect of rural financial development and urban financial development on the farmer income with regional statistical data.
Lastly, this paper gives the relative results and policy suggestions. Therefore, in order to guide the balanced development of financial industry and reduce urban-rural income disparity, measures such as strengthening the rural financial property rights, lowering the threshold for financial services, developing new kinds of rural financial institutions and micro-credit, deepening the rural credit unions reform, promoting competition and complementarities between formal finance and informal finance, and preventing the further loss of rural financial resources should be taken.
引文
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