广州市房地产宏观调控效果研究
摘要
房地产经济系统是一个复杂适应性巨系统,具有规模大、结构复杂、非线性等特点,所以直接使用数学方法或者其它传统的建模方法对这些复杂性进行描述和分析已经变得很难,而基于Agent的系统建模和仿真的方法则可以解决传统方法所面临的难题。本文在这种研究背景下,试图采用基于Agent的建模仿真方法与Swarm仿真平台对广州市房地产经济系统进行建模仿真,并在此仿真程序上测试不同类别的房地产宏观调控政策效果,以及对未来房地产宏观调控政策的方向给予了一定的建议,以促使广州市的房地产行业能够向一个健康、可持续发展的方向发展。
文章主体分为四部分:一、对在现实中的广州市房地产经济状况进行描述;二、介绍了基于Agent建模仿真方法,以及概述了Swarm仿真平台的建模思想和模型结构;三、首先从宏观的角度分析了基于Agent的广州市房地产经济系统模型的基本结构,然后还从微观的角度把模型里的家庭(个人)、房地产开发公司、必需品生产公司、额外品消费公司、银行、政府、房屋建筑成本供应公司、资本生产公司和房地产中介公司等每一类Agent各自的行为都做了详细的解剖分析;四、在Swarm仿真平台上运行基于Agent的广州房地产经济系统模型,并且再对不同类别的房地产宏观调控政策进行了模拟,以及把这些模拟结果和现状仿真模拟做了较比分析,指出不同类别的房地产宏观调控政策的成效并给予建议。
Real estate economic system is a complex adaptive mega system. Because of its characteristics, such as large-scale, complex structure and nonlinear, it is discovered that the direct use of mathematical methods or other traditional modeling method to describe these complexities and to make analysis have become very difficult. As a result, Agent-based system modeling and simulation methods could solve these problems. This dissertation attempts to use Agent-based modeling, simulation methods and Swarm simulation platform for Guangzhou City real estate economic system modeling and analysis, as well as to test different types of real estate effect of macro-control policies, and to provide suggestion on the direction of real estate macro-control policies in the future. It hopes to make Guangzhou real estate market become more healthy and sustainable.
This dissertation is divided into four parts: first, to describe the situation of Guangzhou real estate economic system; second, to introduce Agent-based modeling or simulation methods, and to outline the modeling idea and review the Swarm simulation platform; third, to analyze the basic structure of the Agent-based Guangzhou real estate economic system model from a macro perspective, and then to analyze each category Agent of household(individual), construction-firm, basic-commodity-firm, extra-commodity-firm, bank, government, House-cost-firm, capital-goods-firm and realtor from the micro perspective of the model; fourth, to carry out the Agent-based Guangzhou real estate economic system models on the Swarm simulation platform, and to simulate the different types of real estate macro control policy, as well as to compare these simulation results with the current status simulation, and to point out that different types of real estate effectiveness of macro-control policies and to give recommendations.
文章主体分为四部分:一、对在现实中的广州市房地产经济状况进行描述;二、介绍了基于Agent建模仿真方法,以及概述了Swarm仿真平台的建模思想和模型结构;三、首先从宏观的角度分析了基于Agent的广州市房地产经济系统模型的基本结构,然后还从微观的角度把模型里的家庭(个人)、房地产开发公司、必需品生产公司、额外品消费公司、银行、政府、房屋建筑成本供应公司、资本生产公司和房地产中介公司等每一类Agent各自的行为都做了详细的解剖分析;四、在Swarm仿真平台上运行基于Agent的广州房地产经济系统模型,并且再对不同类别的房地产宏观调控政策进行了模拟,以及把这些模拟结果和现状仿真模拟做了较比分析,指出不同类别的房地产宏观调控政策的成效并给予建议。
Real estate economic system is a complex adaptive mega system. Because of its characteristics, such as large-scale, complex structure and nonlinear, it is discovered that the direct use of mathematical methods or other traditional modeling method to describe these complexities and to make analysis have become very difficult. As a result, Agent-based system modeling and simulation methods could solve these problems. This dissertation attempts to use Agent-based modeling, simulation methods and Swarm simulation platform for Guangzhou City real estate economic system modeling and analysis, as well as to test different types of real estate effect of macro-control policies, and to provide suggestion on the direction of real estate macro-control policies in the future. It hopes to make Guangzhou real estate market become more healthy and sustainable.
This dissertation is divided into four parts: first, to describe the situation of Guangzhou real estate economic system; second, to introduce Agent-based modeling or simulation methods, and to outline the modeling idea and review the Swarm simulation platform; third, to analyze the basic structure of the Agent-based Guangzhou real estate economic system model from a macro perspective, and then to analyze each category Agent of household(individual), construction-firm, basic-commodity-firm, extra-commodity-firm, bank, government, House-cost-firm, capital-goods-firm and realtor from the micro perspective of the model; fourth, to carry out the Agent-based Guangzhou real estate economic system models on the Swarm simulation platform, and to simulate the different types of real estate macro control policy, as well as to compare these simulation results with the current status simulation, and to point out that different types of real estate effectiveness of macro-control policies and to give recommendations.
引文
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[2]魏宏森.系统科学与社会系统[M].长春:吉林教育出版社,1990.
[3]Peter Howitt,Robert Clower.The emergence of economic organization[J].Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,2000(41):55-84.
[4]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学新领域--开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[J].自然杂志,1990,13(1):3-10.
[5]崔霞,戴汝为.以人为中心的综合集成研讨厅体系--人工社会[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2006(2):1-20.
[6]王晓林.论市场经济的复杂性[J].经济学家,2007(3):50-59.
[7]Steven N.Durlauf.Complexity and Empirical Economics[EB/OL].http://www.swarmagents.com/thesis/detail.asp?id=115.
[8]W.Brian Arthur.复杂性与经济[EB/OL].http://www.swarmagents.com/thesis/detail.asp?id=94.
[9]方福康.经济复杂性及一些相关的问题[J].科技导报,2004(8):7-11.
[10]方美琪,张树人.复杂系统建模与仿真[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[11]谭长贵.动态平衡态势论研究:一种自组织系统有序演化新范式[M].成都:电子科技大学出版社,2004.
[12]Lane D.Artificial worlds and economics[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,vol.0(3):89-107,1992.
[13]Robert Axtell.The Emergence of Firms in a Population of Agents:Local Increasing Returns,Unstable Nash Equilibria,And Power Law Size Distributions[J].Center on Social and Economic Dynamics,1999(3).
[14]Charlotte Bruun.Agent-Based Computational Economics-An Introduction[EB/O L].www.samf.aau.dk/~cbruun/aceintro.pdf
[15]Denis Phan.Agent-Based Computational Economics and Cognitive Economics[E B/OL].http://perso.univ-rennes1.fr/denis.phan/papers/ACEPhan.pdf
[16]Leigh Tesfatsion.Primary Research Areas[EB/OL].http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/
[17]何炎祥,陈莘萌.Agent和多Agent系统的设计与应用[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2001.
[18]石纯一,张伟.基于Agent的计算[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007.
[19]Swarm DevelopmentGroup.A Tutorial Introduction to Swarm[EB/OL].http://www.swarm,org/csss-tutorial/frames,html 2000-06.
[20]Swarm Development Group.Heatbugs[EB/OL].http://www.swarm.org/examples-heatbugs,html
[21]Marcus Daniels.Integrating Simulation Technologies with Swarm[EB/OL].http://www.santafe,edu/~mgd/anl/anlchicago,html 1999.15-16.
[22]Swarm Development Group.Brief Overview of Swarm[EB/OL].ftp://ftp,swarm.org/pub/swarm/docs/swarmdocs/overbook-2.1.html tar.gz,2000-07.
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[24]Paul Johnson,et al.Swarm UserGuide[EB/OL].ftp://ftp.swarmorg/pub/swarm /docs/swarmdocs/userbook-O.9-htm.l tar.gz.
[25]Marcus Daniels.Writing FastModels in Swarm[EB/OL].http://www.santafe.edu/~mgd/swarmfest2000/performance,html 20011-13.
[26]Roger Burkhart.The Swarm Multi-Agent Simulation System[EB/OL].http://www.swarm,org/archive/oopsla94,html 1994-09-07.
[27]弗兰西斯路纳,本尼迪克特史蒂芬森.Swarm中的经济仿真:基于智能体建模与面向对象设计[M].景体华等译.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2004.
[28]张江.基于Agent的计算经济学建模方法及其关键技术研究[D]:[博士学位论文].北京:北京交通大学,2002.
[29]张江,李学伟.人工社会--基于Agent的社会学仿真[J].系统工程,2005(01):13-20.
[30]毛海军.基于Agent的宏观经济智能预测决策支持系统研究[D]:[博士学位论文].大连:大连理工大学,2003.
[31]廖守亿.复杂系统基于Agent的建模与仿真方法研究及应用[D]:[博士学位 论文].北京:国防科技大学,2005.
[32]张纪海.基于Multi-Agent的国民经济动员系统建模与仿真研究[D]:[博士学位论文].北京:北京理工大学,2005.
[33]何汉明.基于角色的多智能体社会模型研究与应用[D]:[博士学位论文].西安:西北工业大学,2006.
[34]N.Basu,R.J.Pryor,and T.Quint.ASPEN:A MICROSIMULATION MODEL OF THE ECONOMY[EB/OL].http://econpapers.repec.org/article/kapcom pec/v_3A12_3y_3A1998_3Ai_3A3_3Ap_3A223-41.htm.
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[36]Carlos Gershenson Garcia.Artificial Societies of Intelligent Agents[EB/OL].http://www.swarmagents.com/thesis/detail.asp?id=183.
[37]Kou Xiaodong,Wu Jiejun,Xue Huifeng.MAS Modeling and Simulation of Self-organizing Residential Space Evolution of Artificial Cities[J].International Journal of Systems and Control,2007,3(2):188-197.
[38]James Kennedy,Russell C Bberhart.Swarm Intelligence[M].San Diego:Morgen Kaufmann.2001.
[40]冯静,舒宁.群智能理论及应用研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2006(17):31-34.[39]韩万渠.我国房地产宏观调控政策工具研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].天津:天津大学,2006.
[41]黄贤锁.中国房地产市场的宏观调控研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].福建:福建师范大学,2007.
[42]金蜻.我国房地产宏观调控的政策网络分析[D]:[硕士学位论文].浙江:浙江大学,2008.
[43]曾永霖.宏观调控下中国房地产市场的价格研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].北京:北京交通大学,2008.
[44]王俊英.基于SD的房地产仿真预测及监测预警模型研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].江苏:东南大学,2004.
[45]胡珍梅.房地产金融预警系统模型研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].江苏:东南大学,2005.
[46]合富辉煌市场研究部.2008中国代表城市房地产市场发展预测报告[M].2008.
[47]张艳红.广州土地再现数字纷争开发商到底储备了多少土地[N].第一财经日报,2007-9-28(C06).
[48]中国建材信息总网.2007年房地产宏观调控回顾及2008年展望[EB/OL].http://www.cbminfo.com/?Tabld=63&InfolD=221064,2008-02-25.
[49]邱创思.中国房地产调控政策回顾(2003-2007)[EB/OL].http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/bIog_50d46ld001008jco.html,2008-02-27.
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