我国速生丰产用材林发展潜力研究
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摘要
随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,我国对木材需求量不断加大,1999年以来,我国进口木材及其制品耗汇每年均在100亿美元以上,2009年,我国进口商品材及人造板、木浆及纸和纸板耗汇220亿美元,是仅次于石油、钢铁的第三大用汇产品。另一方面,人类对环境保护意识的增强,我国对生态脆弱区的天然林实行了商品性禁伐,对国有林区实行了减产限伐,进一步减少了木材供给,加剧了木材供需矛盾。从国际发展形势来看,大力发展速生丰产林是解决木材供需矛盾的有效途径。然而,发展速生丰产林受自然资源和社会经济条件的制约,发展水平低下；尽管从2002年以来,我国把发展速生丰产林纳入林业六大工程,在一定程度上促进速生丰产林的进一步发展,但平均生长量为9-12 m3/hm2,远远低于新西兰、瑞典、巴西等国家的30 m3/hm2左右水平。
本文从影响速生丰产用材林发展的自然资源和社会经济条件出发,以林业经济学、社会学、系统论等理论为基础,通过实地调查与文献研究相结合,定量分析与定性分析相结合,实证研究与规范研究相结合的方法,对我国速生丰产用材林发展潜力进行了比较系统和深入地研究,试图用因子分析法建立我国速生丰产用材林综合潜力评价模型,探索出提高其潜力的方法和适合我国速生丰产用材林发展现状的规划布局,并得出如下结论：
(1)根据对自然资源潜力分析,在借鉴前人的研究成果的基础上,进一步研究确定了速生丰产用材林林地标准,以速生丰产用材林林地标准为尺度,定性、定量分析评价了我国林地和后备林地质量,再结合不同区域、主要树种的相关气候综合模型定量和系统分析了速生丰产用材林木材供给潜力,进而概算出我国速生丰产用材林可能的林地供给潜力为1134.42万hm2,每年我国速生丰产用材林木材供给潜力为18778.39万m3。东南沿海地区未来可以挖掘木材供给潜力为6198.08万m3,其中桉树为3099.02万m3,杉木为1850.19万m3,马尾松为1248.87万m3。
(2)在对社会经济条件潜力分析的基础上,通过实证研究、定性和定量研究方法,揭示了良种育苗技术、抚育管理技术、林地维护技术、加工利用技术对速生丰产用材林生产力的影响,以及科学技术成果的推广与应用、科技服务体系对科学技术转换为生产力的推动作用；通过制度改革的必要性及其对速生丰产用材林促进作用的角度,阐述了集体林权制度改革对农民造林积极性的影响,并用实证案例,定量分析了集体林权制度改革对挖掘速生丰产用材林发展潜力的促进作用；通过对文登市三倍体毛白杨的经济效益与普通农作物的经济效益分析,得出种植毛白杨的经济效益远远高于普通农作物,证明了速生丰产用材林发展潜力转化为现实供给力的经济上的可能性。
(3)在对自然资源、社会经济潜力分析的基础上,根据文献调查、统计分析、专家问卷和课题组讨论,构建了指标评价体系,利用因子分析法对我国速生丰产用材林的各区域的综合发展潜力进行了定量评价。把我国31个省区分为发展速生丰产林的Ⅰ类核心区域、II类一般区域和III类不适宜发展区域；并以这13个I类省区为核心,形成了五大速生丰产用材林发展区域：以广西、福建、广东为核心的东南沿海地区；以江苏、江西、浙江、湖南为核心的长江中下游地区；以山东为核心的黄河中下游地区；以吉林、黑龙江、辽宁为核心的东北地区；以四川、云南为核心的西南地区。我国速生丰产用材林东南沿海区域发展潜力巨大,应该作为核心区域优先发展。以充分实现速生丰产用材林的发展潜力,促进生丰产用材林科学健康发展。
本文的主要创新：一是借鉴前人的研究方法,系统地测算出了我国速生丰产用材林的林地供给潜力和木材供给潜力,东南沿海地区主要树种可能挖掘的木材供给潜力；二是综合自然资源潜力、科技和社会经济潜力,构建了我国速生丰产林综合发展潜力的科学评价体系；三是应用因子分析法对我国各省区速生丰产用材林的综合发展潜力进行了分析评价,并据此划定了发展的核心区域,确定了发展的优先顺序。
With the constant development of economy and people's living condition, the need of lumber in China is increasing continuously. Since the year of 1999, the average expense on import of lumber and its production to our country has exceeded over 10 billion dollars annually. In 2009, the total expense of the imported commercial timber, wood pulp, paper and paperboard was 20 billion dollars, which is second only to petrol and steel, as the third products costing the most foreign exchange.
On the other hand, thanks to the reinforcement of environmental protection awareness, China imposed the ban on commercially felling for natural forest in ecologically fragile areas, limited the production and felling of state-owned forests. In this way, the production of woods decreased, causing the contradiction of lumber supply and demand. Out of the international development situation, it is very efficient to solve the contradiction of lumber supply and demand by means of developing forest featured in fast growing and high-yielding. However, the development of such forest is combined by natural resources and social-economic conditions, with low levels of development. Although since 2002, China has brought the development of fast growing and high-yielding forest into the six major forestry projects. This, to some extent, promotes the further development of plantation. However, the average increment of 9～12 m3/hm2 is much lower than the average level of approximately 30 m3 of New Zealand, Sweden, Brazil and other countries.
Out of the natural resources and social-economic conditions that affect the development of fast growing and high-yielding forest, this dissertation, based on the theories of forestry economics, sociology and system theory, combined with field survey and literature research, quantitative and qualitative analysis, empirical research standardized research, makes a systematic and profound research on the potential of development of fast growing and high-yielding forest, with the purpose of establishing assessment model of comprehensive development potential for China's fast-growing and high-yielding forest by means of factor analysis, as well as discovering the methods of improving its potential and the proper layout. The following are some conclusions:
(1) Based on the analysis of natural resource potential, as well as previous researches, this dissertation studies further and determines the standard of the ground of fast-growing and high-yielding forest. Taking the standard of the ground of fast-growing and high-yielding forest as scale, this dissertation analyzes the quality of forest and backup forest quantitatively and qualitatively. Besides, combined with different regions, the integrated model of relative climate, the dissertation analyzes the supply potential of fast-growing and high-yielding forest quantitatively and systematically. In this way, we can further estimate the possible supply potential of China's fast-growing and high-yielding forest land is 11.3442 million hm2, and the annual supply potential of China's fast-growing and high-yielding forest production is 187.7839 million m3, of which Eucalyptus takes up 30,990,200 m3, fir takes up 18,501,900 m3, and pine is12,488,700 m3.
(2) Based on the analysis of socio-economic conditions potential, through empirical research, qualitative and quantitative research, this dissertation reveals the impact of seed breeding techniques, cultivation and management techniques, forest maintenance technology, processing and utilization technologies productivity on the fast growing and high-yielding forest, as well as the promotion effect of the promotion and application of science technology, the change of science technology into productivity by means of technological service system. In addition, from the aspects of the necessity of system reform and the promotion effect of fast growing and high-yielding forest, this dissertation describes the influence of collective forest right on peasants planting zeal. Using empirical case, the author quantitatively analyzes the promotion effect of collective forest right on unleashing the potential of fast growing and high-yielding forest. Moreover, based on the comparison of economic benefits of triploid white poplar and ordinary crops, this dissertation comes to the conclusion that planting poplar can earn much more than ordinary crops. This proves the economic possibility of changing the development potential of fast growing and high-yielding forest into virtual supply power.
(3) Based on the analysis of natural resources and socio-economic potential, according to literature survey, statistical analysis, expert questionnaire and group discussion, the author builds an indicator assessment system. By using the method of factor analysis, this dissertation assesses quantitatively on the comprehensive development potential of the regions of China's fast growing and high-yielding forest. In this way, the 31 provinces and regions are divided into three parts, Class I Core Area as plantation area, Class II Area as ordinary area and Class III as improper area. The author divides these 13 provinces of Class I core area five major areas for fast growing and high-yielding forest development: Guangxi, Fujian and Guangdong as the core of the south east coastal areas, the Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Hunan as the core of midstream and downstream of Yangtze River, Shandong as the core of midstream and downstream of Huang River, the Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning as the core of northwest area, Sichuan, Yunnan as the core of west area. Since the development potential of fast growing and high-yielding forest in southeast coastal area is great, this area should be the priority, in order to realize the development potential of fast growing and high-yielding forest and to promote its scientific and healthy development.
The main innovations of this paper are as follows. First, based on the previous research methods, this paper systematically measures the forest supply potential and wood supply potential of fast growing and high-yielding forests, and the wood supply potential of the main types of tress in southeast coast. Second point is the comprehensive natural resource potential and socio-economic potential, which build a scientific assessment system of the comprehensive production potential of China's fast growing and high-yielding forest. Third, this dissertation applies the factor analysis method to analyze the production potential of the fast growing and high-yielding forest in each province and region. Based on this, the core development areas and the priorities of development are settled.
本文从影响速生丰产用材林发展的自然资源和社会经济条件出发,以林业经济学、社会学、系统论等理论为基础,通过实地调查与文献研究相结合,定量分析与定性分析相结合,实证研究与规范研究相结合的方法,对我国速生丰产用材林发展潜力进行了比较系统和深入地研究,试图用因子分析法建立我国速生丰产用材林综合潜力评价模型,探索出提高其潜力的方法和适合我国速生丰产用材林发展现状的规划布局,并得出如下结论：
(1)根据对自然资源潜力分析,在借鉴前人的研究成果的基础上,进一步研究确定了速生丰产用材林林地标准,以速生丰产用材林林地标准为尺度,定性、定量分析评价了我国林地和后备林地质量,再结合不同区域、主要树种的相关气候综合模型定量和系统分析了速生丰产用材林木材供给潜力,进而概算出我国速生丰产用材林可能的林地供给潜力为1134.42万hm2,每年我国速生丰产用材林木材供给潜力为18778.39万m3。东南沿海地区未来可以挖掘木材供给潜力为6198.08万m3,其中桉树为3099.02万m3,杉木为1850.19万m3,马尾松为1248.87万m3。
(2)在对社会经济条件潜力分析的基础上,通过实证研究、定性和定量研究方法,揭示了良种育苗技术、抚育管理技术、林地维护技术、加工利用技术对速生丰产用材林生产力的影响,以及科学技术成果的推广与应用、科技服务体系对科学技术转换为生产力的推动作用；通过制度改革的必要性及其对速生丰产用材林促进作用的角度,阐述了集体林权制度改革对农民造林积极性的影响,并用实证案例,定量分析了集体林权制度改革对挖掘速生丰产用材林发展潜力的促进作用；通过对文登市三倍体毛白杨的经济效益与普通农作物的经济效益分析,得出种植毛白杨的经济效益远远高于普通农作物,证明了速生丰产用材林发展潜力转化为现实供给力的经济上的可能性。
(3)在对自然资源、社会经济潜力分析的基础上,根据文献调查、统计分析、专家问卷和课题组讨论,构建了指标评价体系,利用因子分析法对我国速生丰产用材林的各区域的综合发展潜力进行了定量评价。把我国31个省区分为发展速生丰产林的Ⅰ类核心区域、II类一般区域和III类不适宜发展区域；并以这13个I类省区为核心,形成了五大速生丰产用材林发展区域：以广西、福建、广东为核心的东南沿海地区；以江苏、江西、浙江、湖南为核心的长江中下游地区；以山东为核心的黄河中下游地区；以吉林、黑龙江、辽宁为核心的东北地区；以四川、云南为核心的西南地区。我国速生丰产用材林东南沿海区域发展潜力巨大,应该作为核心区域优先发展。以充分实现速生丰产用材林的发展潜力,促进生丰产用材林科学健康发展。
本文的主要创新：一是借鉴前人的研究方法,系统地测算出了我国速生丰产用材林的林地供给潜力和木材供给潜力,东南沿海地区主要树种可能挖掘的木材供给潜力；二是综合自然资源潜力、科技和社会经济潜力,构建了我国速生丰产林综合发展潜力的科学评价体系；三是应用因子分析法对我国各省区速生丰产用材林的综合发展潜力进行了分析评价,并据此划定了发展的核心区域,确定了发展的优先顺序。
With the constant development of economy and people's living condition, the need of lumber in China is increasing continuously. Since the year of 1999, the average expense on import of lumber and its production to our country has exceeded over 10 billion dollars annually. In 2009, the total expense of the imported commercial timber, wood pulp, paper and paperboard was 20 billion dollars, which is second only to petrol and steel, as the third products costing the most foreign exchange.
On the other hand, thanks to the reinforcement of environmental protection awareness, China imposed the ban on commercially felling for natural forest in ecologically fragile areas, limited the production and felling of state-owned forests. In this way, the production of woods decreased, causing the contradiction of lumber supply and demand. Out of the international development situation, it is very efficient to solve the contradiction of lumber supply and demand by means of developing forest featured in fast growing and high-yielding. However, the development of such forest is combined by natural resources and social-economic conditions, with low levels of development. Although since 2002, China has brought the development of fast growing and high-yielding forest into the six major forestry projects. This, to some extent, promotes the further development of plantation. However, the average increment of 9～12 m3/hm2 is much lower than the average level of approximately 30 m3 of New Zealand, Sweden, Brazil and other countries.
Out of the natural resources and social-economic conditions that affect the development of fast growing and high-yielding forest, this dissertation, based on the theories of forestry economics, sociology and system theory, combined with field survey and literature research, quantitative and qualitative analysis, empirical research standardized research, makes a systematic and profound research on the potential of development of fast growing and high-yielding forest, with the purpose of establishing assessment model of comprehensive development potential for China's fast-growing and high-yielding forest by means of factor analysis, as well as discovering the methods of improving its potential and the proper layout. The following are some conclusions:
(1) Based on the analysis of natural resource potential, as well as previous researches, this dissertation studies further and determines the standard of the ground of fast-growing and high-yielding forest. Taking the standard of the ground of fast-growing and high-yielding forest as scale, this dissertation analyzes the quality of forest and backup forest quantitatively and qualitatively. Besides, combined with different regions, the integrated model of relative climate, the dissertation analyzes the supply potential of fast-growing and high-yielding forest quantitatively and systematically. In this way, we can further estimate the possible supply potential of China's fast-growing and high-yielding forest land is 11.3442 million hm2, and the annual supply potential of China's fast-growing and high-yielding forest production is 187.7839 million m3, of which Eucalyptus takes up 30,990,200 m3, fir takes up 18,501,900 m3, and pine is12,488,700 m3.
(2) Based on the analysis of socio-economic conditions potential, through empirical research, qualitative and quantitative research, this dissertation reveals the impact of seed breeding techniques, cultivation and management techniques, forest maintenance technology, processing and utilization technologies productivity on the fast growing and high-yielding forest, as well as the promotion effect of the promotion and application of science technology, the change of science technology into productivity by means of technological service system. In addition, from the aspects of the necessity of system reform and the promotion effect of fast growing and high-yielding forest, this dissertation describes the influence of collective forest right on peasants planting zeal. Using empirical case, the author quantitatively analyzes the promotion effect of collective forest right on unleashing the potential of fast growing and high-yielding forest. Moreover, based on the comparison of economic benefits of triploid white poplar and ordinary crops, this dissertation comes to the conclusion that planting poplar can earn much more than ordinary crops. This proves the economic possibility of changing the development potential of fast growing and high-yielding forest into virtual supply power.
(3) Based on the analysis of natural resources and socio-economic potential, according to literature survey, statistical analysis, expert questionnaire and group discussion, the author builds an indicator assessment system. By using the method of factor analysis, this dissertation assesses quantitatively on the comprehensive development potential of the regions of China's fast growing and high-yielding forest. In this way, the 31 provinces and regions are divided into three parts, Class I Core Area as plantation area, Class II Area as ordinary area and Class III as improper area. The author divides these 13 provinces of Class I core area five major areas for fast growing and high-yielding forest development: Guangxi, Fujian and Guangdong as the core of the south east coastal areas, the Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Hunan as the core of midstream and downstream of Yangtze River, Shandong as the core of midstream and downstream of Huang River, the Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning as the core of northwest area, Sichuan, Yunnan as the core of west area. Since the development potential of fast growing and high-yielding forest in southeast coastal area is great, this area should be the priority, in order to realize the development potential of fast growing and high-yielding forest and to promote its scientific and healthy development.
The main innovations of this paper are as follows. First, based on the previous research methods, this paper systematically measures the forest supply potential and wood supply potential of fast growing and high-yielding forests, and the wood supply potential of the main types of tress in southeast coast. Second point is the comprehensive natural resource potential and socio-economic potential, which build a scientific assessment system of the comprehensive production potential of China's fast growing and high-yielding forest. Third, this dissertation applies the factor analysis method to analyze the production potential of the fast growing and high-yielding forest in each province and region. Based on this, the core development areas and the priorities of development are settled.
引文
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