当前世界经济长波运行状态及趋势研究
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摘要
世界经济以长周期的形式向前运行的观点已经被大部分学者所接受,但是对于当前世界经济运行所处的长波运行发展阶段还存在一些争论——即当前世界经济仍然处于第四个长波的下降期还是已经进入信息技术主导的第五次长波中、是处于第五次长波的繁荣期还是已经进入衰退期。此外,目前世界经济在长波运行中出现了很多问题,如何认识经济危机的发生、世界经济长波运行中后进国实现赶超目标的条件和战略等,也是当前面临的重要问题。因此,从世界经济长波角度系统分析这些问题具有极重要的意义。
本文在熊彼特的技术创新长波论、范·杜因的以创新生命周期为基础的长波理论和弗农的产品生命周期理论基础上建立了基础创新技术推动的长波模型,并对基础创新技术在行业间及国际间进行传递时可能存在的两种经济现象(即经济危机与赶超效应)进行了分析。根据基础创新技术推动的长波模型分析,我们得出以下结论：由于基础创新技术在部门间扩散需要一定的时间,基础创新技术推动下的经济出现了长期波动的特征；如果基础创新技术在行业间扩散时有阻碍、时间过长就可能会掩盖其作为基础创新技术的本质；基础创新技术在行业间扩散的顺畅程度会影响周期长度。在理论分析基础上,本文利用1780年以来的历史数据总结并验证了判断基础创新技术和长周期运行的依据,并据此确认了当前世界经济长波所处的阶段和基础创新技术；对长波中存在的经济危机与赶超效应进行探讨,对一些国家实现经济赶超进行多角度的历史分析,为中国抓住21世纪头20年这个重要的战略机遇期,采取正确的政策措施实现赶超战略提供借鉴。
本文的主要结论包括：
第一,根据基础创新技术在行业间的扩散以及产业结构、贸易结构和投资结构的调整过程的分析,可以得出这样的结论：技术革命带来经济结构的调整,经济结构的调整反过来又需为基础创新技术在行业间的渗透疏通渠道。基础创新技术在行业间顺利扩散时,经济顺利前行；基础创新技术在行业间的渗透受阻时,经济就会出现问题。当前世界经济长波运行的基础创新技术为信息技术,世界经济已然进入由信息技术推动的第五次长期波动中,且该次长周期运行仍处于上升期。第五个长波发展至今,经济各指标都还没有表现出与繁荣相对应的特征,更没出现由繁荣转入衰退的特征；发达国家信息技术对产出的推动作用一直呈现上升趋势,也说明信息技术的作用还未完全显现出来,由其推动的这个长波的繁荣阶段还没有结束。从发达经济体的第三产业信息技术投入远超过第二产业这一现象,可以看出信息技术在整个行业中的扩散进程受到了阻碍,从而掩盖了当前世界经济长周期运行的本质。
第二,对1929年、1973年和2008年这三次经济危机进行比较发现,1929年和1973年经济危机的爆发主要是由于基础创新技术发展到成熟和衰退阶段,其对经济推动不足造成的,而2008年经济危机爆发的根本原因则是作为基础创新技术的信息技术在行业间的扩散受阻。我们认为这次经济危机的根本原因是发达国家的第三产业投资回报率的严重虚高导致产业结构与企业家的信息技术投资出现了严重失衡,阻碍了信息技术的正常扩散。此次经济危机爆发的原因与以往不同,对经济的影响程度也不同。针对不同原因造成的经济危机应采取不同的措施进行解决。针对本轮危机,政策措施的重点是采取合适的措施为基础创新技术在行业间的扩散和深化疏通渠道。
第三,本文利用非竞争型投入占用产出模型,以基础创新技术带来的完全国内增加值与就业作为判断依据,对主要国家1970-2010年间的数据进行研究,发现各国在国际分工中确实具有赶超意义。分析结果显示,在基础创新技术转换过程中后进国具有赶超机会,而先进国也可能落后；一国即使不是新的基础性创新技术的产生国,但在该根本性创新技术之上的改进型创新以及产业内新范式的顺畅扩展有助于该国在新的增长周期中保持较好的发展态势；长周期运行的阶段性变化,往往是各经济体在全球经济格局中地位发生重大转化的时机。日本在长周期运行中实现经济赶超与被赶超的经验和教训,可以为后进国成功实现赶超战略提供一些启示。赶超目标能否实现,与周期运行的技术范式、运行阶段以及后进国的策略密切相关。后进国的追赶时机在于基础技术范式在扩散过程中的阶段把握,包括基础能力、次生创新能力以及经济规模、制度创新和世界经济环境等因素能否及时得到发挥,并积累足够的基础在新的长周期起步阶段不处于落后水平。
第四,对中国来说,要抓住21世纪头20年这个重要的战略机遇期,就要抓住这次技术创新的机遇,明确信息技术在推动当前经济发展中的重要地位,重视信息技术行业及其与其他行业交叉的创新。不仅要加大信息技术投资,更要引导其快速扩散到各产业中去,加速信息技术对当前行业的改造,引导产业升级。
It has been accepted by most scholars that the world economy is running in the form of long waves. But there are still some controversies for the current stage of the world economy in long-wave. That is the world economy is still in the fourth long-wave's falling period or has entered the fifth long-wave driven by information technology and in the prosperous period or recession period of the fifth long-wave. There are a lot of problems when the world economy is running, including how to understand the source of the economic crisis and the conditions and strategies to achieve catch-up targets for backward countries in long-waves and so on. It's meaningful to research these problems from world economy's long-wave perspective.
We establish long-wave model driven by GPT based on the long-wave theory of Schumpeter's technological innovation, Van Duijn's life cycle long-wave theory and Vernon's product life cycle theory. And then explaining the two economic phenomena, the economic crisis and the catch-up effect, which may exist when the GPT diffuse in the industries and countries. We can get the followed conclusions from long-wave model driven by GPT:the world economy driven by GPT is running in the form of long waves since it takes certain time for GPT diffusing among sectors; it may hide the nature of the technology as GPT when it is hindered and takes a long time to diffuse among the industries; the degrees of smoothness GPT diffuse among the industries will affect the length of the cycle. Based on theoretical analysis, we sum up and examine the fundamental bases which could be used to identify the general purpose technology and judge running stages and identify the current stage and the general purpose technology of the world economy in long-wave employing history data since1780; we analyze the economic crisis and the catch-up effect in long-waves and make multi-angle historical analysis for some achieved catch-up countries which provides the reference for China to grasp the important period of strategic opportunities of the first two decades of the21st century and take the right policy measures to achieve catch-up strategy.
The main conclusions are as follows.
Firstly, based on the analysis of GPT's diffusion in industries and the adjustments of industrial structure, trade structure, invest structure, we can conclude that:technological revolution brought about the adjustment of economic structure which in turn dredges channels for the diffusion of GPT in the industries. When the diffusion of GPT in the industries is smooth, the economy is good. Otherwise, the economy will be in crisis. Information technology is the new general purpose technology which pushes the world economy into the fifth long wave and it's still at the ascension stages through empirical analysis. We find that economic indicators haven't shown the characteristics which should have in the prosperous phase since the economies entering into the fifth long wave, not even the characteristics of prosperity turning into recession; information technology's pushing function is still on up-trend which means that information technology's pushing function is not full-fledged and it could still further the prosperous phrase which means the prosperous phase have not yet ended until now. From the phenomenon that intermediate information technology inputs in tertiary industry are more than that of the secondary industry in developed countries, we can see that the process of information technology spreading is hindered which hide the nature of current world economy running in the form of long waves.
Secondly, compared with the three economic crises in1929,1973and2008, we find that the outbreak of the economic crisis in1929and1973was mainly due to GPT entering the mature and decline stage which result the economic lack of promotion powers, but the essential reason of2008economic crisis is the process of information technology as GPT spreading in industries is hindered. So the essential reason of this economic crisis is that the return on investment of tertiary industry is higher than that of the secondary industry which cause industrial structure and the investment of information technology unbalanced which hinders the spreading process of information technology. The essential source of this economic crisis is different from the economic crises in the past which results the different degrees of impacting on the economy. Different measures should be taken to resolve the issue for different sources of these economic crises. For this economic crisis, the essential of policy measures is making appropriate measures to dredge channels for the spreading and deepening of GPT in the industries.
Thirdly, it proves the existence of catch-up effect in international production fragmentation making full domestic value added and employment brought by GPT as a basis to judge, using the data of main countries from1970to2010in non-competitive input-output model. The result shows that, the latecomer countries have catch-up opportunities and the advanced countries may be lagging behind in the process of GPT changes; even a non-foundation country of GPT, the improved innovated ability based on GPT and the smooth expansion of new paradigm among industries can maintain a good development situation in a new cycle of growth; phase changes in the long wave often are the chance of the countries'position changing in international production fragmentation. The experience and lessons of Japan to catch-up and be catch-up can provide some inspiration for backward country implement catch-up strategy successfully. Whether or not to achieve the catch-up goal is related to technological paradigm of long wave, the operational phase, and the strategy of backward country. The time of backward countries to catch up is grab the diffusion stages of basic technology paradigm, include the basis of ability, secondary innovation capability, as well as scale of economies, institutional innovation and world economic environment and so on, and accumulated a sufficient basis in the new long wave to avoid being catch-up.
Fourthly, when it comes to China, we should grasp the opportunity of information technology, which means to grasp the important period of strategic opportunities of the first two decades of the21st century. We must understand the status of information technology in promoting the development of the economic exactly and pay attention to the information technology industry and the innovative cross the information technology industry with other industries. Not only improve the investment of information technology industry, but also ensure smooth channels of IT industry's expanding to other industries, accelerate the alteration of the tradition industries by IT and guide industrial upgrading.
本文在熊彼特的技术创新长波论、范·杜因的以创新生命周期为基础的长波理论和弗农的产品生命周期理论基础上建立了基础创新技术推动的长波模型,并对基础创新技术在行业间及国际间进行传递时可能存在的两种经济现象(即经济危机与赶超效应)进行了分析。根据基础创新技术推动的长波模型分析,我们得出以下结论：由于基础创新技术在部门间扩散需要一定的时间,基础创新技术推动下的经济出现了长期波动的特征；如果基础创新技术在行业间扩散时有阻碍、时间过长就可能会掩盖其作为基础创新技术的本质；基础创新技术在行业间扩散的顺畅程度会影响周期长度。在理论分析基础上,本文利用1780年以来的历史数据总结并验证了判断基础创新技术和长周期运行的依据,并据此确认了当前世界经济长波所处的阶段和基础创新技术；对长波中存在的经济危机与赶超效应进行探讨,对一些国家实现经济赶超进行多角度的历史分析,为中国抓住21世纪头20年这个重要的战略机遇期,采取正确的政策措施实现赶超战略提供借鉴。
本文的主要结论包括：
第一,根据基础创新技术在行业间的扩散以及产业结构、贸易结构和投资结构的调整过程的分析,可以得出这样的结论：技术革命带来经济结构的调整,经济结构的调整反过来又需为基础创新技术在行业间的渗透疏通渠道。基础创新技术在行业间顺利扩散时,经济顺利前行；基础创新技术在行业间的渗透受阻时,经济就会出现问题。当前世界经济长波运行的基础创新技术为信息技术,世界经济已然进入由信息技术推动的第五次长期波动中,且该次长周期运行仍处于上升期。第五个长波发展至今,经济各指标都还没有表现出与繁荣相对应的特征,更没出现由繁荣转入衰退的特征；发达国家信息技术对产出的推动作用一直呈现上升趋势,也说明信息技术的作用还未完全显现出来,由其推动的这个长波的繁荣阶段还没有结束。从发达经济体的第三产业信息技术投入远超过第二产业这一现象,可以看出信息技术在整个行业中的扩散进程受到了阻碍,从而掩盖了当前世界经济长周期运行的本质。
第二,对1929年、1973年和2008年这三次经济危机进行比较发现,1929年和1973年经济危机的爆发主要是由于基础创新技术发展到成熟和衰退阶段,其对经济推动不足造成的,而2008年经济危机爆发的根本原因则是作为基础创新技术的信息技术在行业间的扩散受阻。我们认为这次经济危机的根本原因是发达国家的第三产业投资回报率的严重虚高导致产业结构与企业家的信息技术投资出现了严重失衡,阻碍了信息技术的正常扩散。此次经济危机爆发的原因与以往不同,对经济的影响程度也不同。针对不同原因造成的经济危机应采取不同的措施进行解决。针对本轮危机,政策措施的重点是采取合适的措施为基础创新技术在行业间的扩散和深化疏通渠道。
第三,本文利用非竞争型投入占用产出模型,以基础创新技术带来的完全国内增加值与就业作为判断依据,对主要国家1970-2010年间的数据进行研究,发现各国在国际分工中确实具有赶超意义。分析结果显示,在基础创新技术转换过程中后进国具有赶超机会,而先进国也可能落后；一国即使不是新的基础性创新技术的产生国,但在该根本性创新技术之上的改进型创新以及产业内新范式的顺畅扩展有助于该国在新的增长周期中保持较好的发展态势；长周期运行的阶段性变化,往往是各经济体在全球经济格局中地位发生重大转化的时机。日本在长周期运行中实现经济赶超与被赶超的经验和教训,可以为后进国成功实现赶超战略提供一些启示。赶超目标能否实现,与周期运行的技术范式、运行阶段以及后进国的策略密切相关。后进国的追赶时机在于基础技术范式在扩散过程中的阶段把握,包括基础能力、次生创新能力以及经济规模、制度创新和世界经济环境等因素能否及时得到发挥,并积累足够的基础在新的长周期起步阶段不处于落后水平。
第四,对中国来说,要抓住21世纪头20年这个重要的战略机遇期,就要抓住这次技术创新的机遇,明确信息技术在推动当前经济发展中的重要地位,重视信息技术行业及其与其他行业交叉的创新。不仅要加大信息技术投资,更要引导其快速扩散到各产业中去,加速信息技术对当前行业的改造,引导产业升级。
It has been accepted by most scholars that the world economy is running in the form of long waves. But there are still some controversies for the current stage of the world economy in long-wave. That is the world economy is still in the fourth long-wave's falling period or has entered the fifth long-wave driven by information technology and in the prosperous period or recession period of the fifth long-wave. There are a lot of problems when the world economy is running, including how to understand the source of the economic crisis and the conditions and strategies to achieve catch-up targets for backward countries in long-waves and so on. It's meaningful to research these problems from world economy's long-wave perspective.
We establish long-wave model driven by GPT based on the long-wave theory of Schumpeter's technological innovation, Van Duijn's life cycle long-wave theory and Vernon's product life cycle theory. And then explaining the two economic phenomena, the economic crisis and the catch-up effect, which may exist when the GPT diffuse in the industries and countries. We can get the followed conclusions from long-wave model driven by GPT:the world economy driven by GPT is running in the form of long waves since it takes certain time for GPT diffusing among sectors; it may hide the nature of the technology as GPT when it is hindered and takes a long time to diffuse among the industries; the degrees of smoothness GPT diffuse among the industries will affect the length of the cycle. Based on theoretical analysis, we sum up and examine the fundamental bases which could be used to identify the general purpose technology and judge running stages and identify the current stage and the general purpose technology of the world economy in long-wave employing history data since1780; we analyze the economic crisis and the catch-up effect in long-waves and make multi-angle historical analysis for some achieved catch-up countries which provides the reference for China to grasp the important period of strategic opportunities of the first two decades of the21st century and take the right policy measures to achieve catch-up strategy.
The main conclusions are as follows.
Firstly, based on the analysis of GPT's diffusion in industries and the adjustments of industrial structure, trade structure, invest structure, we can conclude that:technological revolution brought about the adjustment of economic structure which in turn dredges channels for the diffusion of GPT in the industries. When the diffusion of GPT in the industries is smooth, the economy is good. Otherwise, the economy will be in crisis. Information technology is the new general purpose technology which pushes the world economy into the fifth long wave and it's still at the ascension stages through empirical analysis. We find that economic indicators haven't shown the characteristics which should have in the prosperous phase since the economies entering into the fifth long wave, not even the characteristics of prosperity turning into recession; information technology's pushing function is still on up-trend which means that information technology's pushing function is not full-fledged and it could still further the prosperous phrase which means the prosperous phase have not yet ended until now. From the phenomenon that intermediate information technology inputs in tertiary industry are more than that of the secondary industry in developed countries, we can see that the process of information technology spreading is hindered which hide the nature of current world economy running in the form of long waves.
Secondly, compared with the three economic crises in1929,1973and2008, we find that the outbreak of the economic crisis in1929and1973was mainly due to GPT entering the mature and decline stage which result the economic lack of promotion powers, but the essential reason of2008economic crisis is the process of information technology as GPT spreading in industries is hindered. So the essential reason of this economic crisis is that the return on investment of tertiary industry is higher than that of the secondary industry which cause industrial structure and the investment of information technology unbalanced which hinders the spreading process of information technology. The essential source of this economic crisis is different from the economic crises in the past which results the different degrees of impacting on the economy. Different measures should be taken to resolve the issue for different sources of these economic crises. For this economic crisis, the essential of policy measures is making appropriate measures to dredge channels for the spreading and deepening of GPT in the industries.
Thirdly, it proves the existence of catch-up effect in international production fragmentation making full domestic value added and employment brought by GPT as a basis to judge, using the data of main countries from1970to2010in non-competitive input-output model. The result shows that, the latecomer countries have catch-up opportunities and the advanced countries may be lagging behind in the process of GPT changes; even a non-foundation country of GPT, the improved innovated ability based on GPT and the smooth expansion of new paradigm among industries can maintain a good development situation in a new cycle of growth; phase changes in the long wave often are the chance of the countries'position changing in international production fragmentation. The experience and lessons of Japan to catch-up and be catch-up can provide some inspiration for backward country implement catch-up strategy successfully. Whether or not to achieve the catch-up goal is related to technological paradigm of long wave, the operational phase, and the strategy of backward country. The time of backward countries to catch up is grab the diffusion stages of basic technology paradigm, include the basis of ability, secondary innovation capability, as well as scale of economies, institutional innovation and world economic environment and so on, and accumulated a sufficient basis in the new long wave to avoid being catch-up.
Fourthly, when it comes to China, we should grasp the opportunity of information technology, which means to grasp the important period of strategic opportunities of the first two decades of the21st century. We must understand the status of information technology in promoting the development of the economic exactly and pay attention to the information technology industry and the innovative cross the information technology industry with other industries. Not only improve the investment of information technology industry, but also ensure smooth channels of IT industry's expanding to other industries, accelerate the alteration of the tradition industries by IT and guide industrial upgrading.
引文
[4] 见刘程,佟家栋.欧洲主权债务与金融系统危机——基于“新三元冲突”视角的研究.欧洲研究,2011,6.
[5] 熊彼特,经济周期循环论：对利润、资本、信贷、利息以及经济周期的探究,叶华编译,中国长安出版社,2009：2。
[6] 熊彼特,经济周期循环论：对利润、资本、信贷、利息以及经济周期的探究,叶华编译,中国长安出版社,2009：102。
[7] 熊彼特,经济周期循环论：对利润、资本、信贷、利息以及经济周期的探究,叶华编译,中国长安出版社,2009：3。
[8] 张兵,经济长波理论及运行特征研究,中国商务出版社,2006,8：12。
[9] 赵涛,经济长波论——对资本主义世界经济长期波动研究,中国人民大学出版社,1988：49-50。
[10] 李坤望,张伯伟,国际经济学(第2版),高等教育出版社,2005：91-92。
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[17] 1919-1947年为第三个长波的下降期,1958-1990年为第四个长波,1995-2005年处于第五个长波的上升期。
[19] 传统的国际贸易的总量统计法把从他国进口的中间产品的价值也计为出口额的一部分,从而导致“统计假象”,这一假象掩盖的是发展中国家在高技术产业国际分工中.以劳动密集型生产为主的低端地位。
[20]实际上Lau等(2007)的方法与Hummels等(2001)的方法有异曲同T之妙,国内完全增加值系数等十1减去VS指数。
[21] 1970-1990年为第四个长波,1995-2005年处于第五个长波的上升期。
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