基于FDI非均衡分布视角的中国地区经济发展差距研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济取得了非凡的增长业绩,堪称经济增长的“奇迹”。但是与这种增长相伴随的是中国地区间经济发展存在显著的差距,长期的地区经济发展差距的存在势必影响到中国经济可持续发展和全面建设小康社会目标的实现。因此,如何有效地缩小地区经济发展差距,进而促进地区经济协调发展是一个现实而紧迫的任务。本文以FDI非均衡分布为视角,分析了中国地区经济发展差距形成的原因及其内在机制,并以此为基础对统筹地区协调发展这一重大政策命题提出了相应的政策建议,具有一定的理论和现实意义。
本文研究过程中采取逐步深入的推进方法,其基本研究思路是:首先,使用基尼系数和泰勒指数对中国地区经济发展差距的历史演变轨迹进行了分析,并对其形成结构进行了分解,同时对中国经济增长的σ收敛、绝对β收敛、条件β收敛和“俱乐部”收敛进行了检验,以此为基础形成了对中国地区经济发展差距的全面了解;其次,以新古典增长理论和新增长理论为基础对中国地区经济发展差距的形成机制进行了分析;再次,以FDI非均衡分布为视角对中国地区经济发展差距的形成机制进行了解释;最后,提出了本文的政策建议。
在上述问题分析的基础上,本文指出:改革开放以来,以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距呈现“U”型变化特征,改革初期至1990年以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距呈现缩小趋势,而1990年以后以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距呈现扩大趋势。从以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距形成的地区构成来看,1990年以前中国地区差距形成的主要贡献者是东中西部地区内部省区的差距;而1990年后中国地区经济发展差距形成的主要贡献者是东部与中西部地区之间的差距。从以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距形成的产业构成来看,第二产业的地区差距长期以来都是中国地区经济发展差距的主要贡献者,居主导地位:但是随着第三产业产值比重的提高和第三产业地理集聚的非均衡性扩大(1990年以后),第三产业的地区差距正逐渐演变为以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距形成的主要贡献者。1978-2005年期间,中国地区经济增长并没有出现绝对收敛趋势,而是表现为东中部地区内部的“俱乐部”收敛。1978-2005年东部地区经济增长速度比中西部地区更快,东部地区平均经济增长速度比中部地区高1个百分点左右,比西部地区高接近2个百分点,地区间经济增长速度存在显著的差异。
而导致中国地区经济发展差距形成的原因是由于地区间存在资本形成差异和地区间全要素生产率差异,东部地区比中西部地区具有更高的纶济增长速度,是由于东部地区比中西部地区具有更高的人均资本形成和更高的全要素生产率。
为什么东部地区比中西部地区具有更高的人均资本形成和更高的全要素生产率呢?笔者分析发现FDI非均衡分布是重要原因:一方面,由于中国FDI数量分布呈现“东高西低”的非均衡分布,导致东部地区吸引的FDI数量更多,进而导致东部地区具有更高的资本形成;另一方面,中国FDI技术溢出效应分布也呈现“东高西低”的非均衡分布,导致东部地区具有更高的全要素生产率。
而导致FDI东部地区集聚是由于东部地区在政策、人力资本、区位条件和市场潜力等方面具有显著的优势;中西部吸引的FDI数量偏少既有地理方面的原因,也有政策方面的原因,更有中西部地区自身市场化、对外开放程度和基础设施建设等方面滞后于东部地区的原因。造成FDI在中西部地区,特别是在西部地区FDI技术溢出效应相对更低的原因是,FDI在西部投资历史比较短以及占当地经济的比重比较小,同时西部省份企业本身学习能力的缺乏和与FDI企业技术差距过大。
因此,对中西部地区而言,要促进地区经济快速发展,一方面要完善基础设施,加强市场化改革和制度创新等,以增强吸纳FDI的能力,实现以FDI数量的增长促进中西部地区更高的资本形成:另一方面更要注重培育本地企业对FDI的技术吸收能力,实现以FDI技术溢出效应的提高来促进中西部地区全要素生产率的提高。
总结来看,本文的研究创新点是,提出改革开放以来以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距以1990年为界呈现“U”型变化特征,1990年后东部地区与中西部地区之间的差距是以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距形成的主要贡献者:而形成东中西部地区差距的重要原因是由于FDI数量的非均衡分布导致了地区之间的资本形成差异和FDI技术溢出效应的非均衡分布导致了地区之间的全要素生产率差异;对中西部地区而言,要促进经济发展,一方面必须增强对FDI的吸收能力;另一方面更须增强当地企业对FDI的技术吸纳能力。
Since 1978,China has scored great achievement in economic growth,but the development is unbalanced.The speed of the economic growth in the developed east is higher than the developing middle and the developing west.The widening of regional economic gap has become one of the biggest challenges that influence the sustainable development.So the research of regional gap is important to theory and practice.The paper analyzes the forming reason and mechanism of the regional economic gap in China based on the FDI unbalanced distribution,at the same time, the paper brings forward the policy advice to reduce the regional economic gap in China.
The method of the research in the paper is impellent,and the basal research course is the following.Firstly,the author uses the Theil coefficient and Gini coefficient to analyze the regional economic gap,and decomposes the structure in China.At the same time,the author tests theσconvergence,the absoluteβconvergence,the conditionalβconvergence and the club convergence.Secondly, the author analyzes the forming reason and mechanism of the regional economic gap in China.Thirdly,the author explains the forming reason and mechanism of the regional economic gap in China based on the FDI unbalanced distribution.Lastly,the paper brings forward the policy advice.
The author discovers that the diversification of the regional gap according to the province cell in China behaved "U" form.The regional gap of between the east and the rest areas was enlarging.The regional gap of between the east and the rest areas was the primary contributor of the regional disparity according to the province cell in China from 1990's.From the industry to observe,the author discovers that the regional gap of the secondary industry was the primary contributor,but the rate of was descending.The third industry was becoming the important contributor.The industry structure adjusting and the agglomeration of the third industry and the secondary industry are the primary reason of the forming of the disparity of between the east and the rest areas.In the 1978 to 2005,the absolute convergence of economic growth didn't occur,the other way round,the club convergence of economic growth occurred in the east and in the middle.The speed of the economic growth in the east was higher about 1 centigrade than the middle and the developing west,and was higher about 2 centigrade than the west.The forming reasons of the regional economic gap are because of the capital gap and the TFP gap between the west and the rests.
The FDI distribution affects the regional economic gap in the two ways.On the one hand,because of the east attracting more FDI,there is more capital in the east.On the other hand,the techno-overflow of FDI is higher in the east than the rests.So the TFP is higher in the east than the rest.
Because the east has predominance in the policy,human capital,place,market and efficiency wage,FDI assembles in the east.The investment circumstances of FDI are bad in the middle and the west than the east in the place,policy,marketing, opening and the basic establishment.The reasons of the techno-overflow of FDI are lower in the middle and the west than the east is that the techno-overflow of FDI is lying on the investment history and proportion of FDI.When the investment time is longer and the investment proportion is higher,the techno-overflow of FDI is higher. Besides of the investment history and proportion,the bad studying capability of the westem corporations is the important reason.
So the middle and the west must enhance the capability of attracting FDI by consummating the basic establishment and enhancing marketing reform on the one hand.On the other hand,the middle and the west must enhance the capability of absorbing FDI technology by changing the industry policy and enhancing market competition.Depending on the increasing of FDI,the middle and the west will obtain capital.Depending on heightening of the techno-overflow of FDI the middle and the west will heighten the TFP the middle and the west.In the end,the middle and the west will develop faster.
In one word,there are the following innovations in the thesis:
Firstly,the thesis discovers that the diversification of the regional gap according to the province cell in China behaved "U" form.The regional gap of between the east and the rest areas was the primary contributor of the regional disparity according to the province cell in China from 1990's.
Secondly,the reasons of inducing regional gap are that the distribution of the FDI amount isn't equilibrium and the techno-overflow of the FDI isn't equilibrium also.
Lastly,the middle and the west must enhance the capability of attracting FDI and the capability of absorbing FDI technology.
本文研究过程中采取逐步深入的推进方法,其基本研究思路是:首先,使用基尼系数和泰勒指数对中国地区经济发展差距的历史演变轨迹进行了分析,并对其形成结构进行了分解,同时对中国经济增长的σ收敛、绝对β收敛、条件β收敛和“俱乐部”收敛进行了检验,以此为基础形成了对中国地区经济发展差距的全面了解;其次,以新古典增长理论和新增长理论为基础对中国地区经济发展差距的形成机制进行了分析;再次,以FDI非均衡分布为视角对中国地区经济发展差距的形成机制进行了解释;最后,提出了本文的政策建议。
在上述问题分析的基础上,本文指出:改革开放以来,以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距呈现“U”型变化特征,改革初期至1990年以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距呈现缩小趋势,而1990年以后以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距呈现扩大趋势。从以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距形成的地区构成来看,1990年以前中国地区差距形成的主要贡献者是东中西部地区内部省区的差距;而1990年后中国地区经济发展差距形成的主要贡献者是东部与中西部地区之间的差距。从以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距形成的产业构成来看,第二产业的地区差距长期以来都是中国地区经济发展差距的主要贡献者,居主导地位:但是随着第三产业产值比重的提高和第三产业地理集聚的非均衡性扩大(1990年以后),第三产业的地区差距正逐渐演变为以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距形成的主要贡献者。1978-2005年期间,中国地区经济增长并没有出现绝对收敛趋势,而是表现为东中部地区内部的“俱乐部”收敛。1978-2005年东部地区经济增长速度比中西部地区更快,东部地区平均经济增长速度比中部地区高1个百分点左右,比西部地区高接近2个百分点,地区间经济增长速度存在显著的差异。
而导致中国地区经济发展差距形成的原因是由于地区间存在资本形成差异和地区间全要素生产率差异,东部地区比中西部地区具有更高的纶济增长速度,是由于东部地区比中西部地区具有更高的人均资本形成和更高的全要素生产率。
为什么东部地区比中西部地区具有更高的人均资本形成和更高的全要素生产率呢?笔者分析发现FDI非均衡分布是重要原因:一方面,由于中国FDI数量分布呈现“东高西低”的非均衡分布,导致东部地区吸引的FDI数量更多,进而导致东部地区具有更高的资本形成;另一方面,中国FDI技术溢出效应分布也呈现“东高西低”的非均衡分布,导致东部地区具有更高的全要素生产率。
而导致FDI东部地区集聚是由于东部地区在政策、人力资本、区位条件和市场潜力等方面具有显著的优势;中西部吸引的FDI数量偏少既有地理方面的原因,也有政策方面的原因,更有中西部地区自身市场化、对外开放程度和基础设施建设等方面滞后于东部地区的原因。造成FDI在中西部地区,特别是在西部地区FDI技术溢出效应相对更低的原因是,FDI在西部投资历史比较短以及占当地经济的比重比较小,同时西部省份企业本身学习能力的缺乏和与FDI企业技术差距过大。
因此,对中西部地区而言,要促进地区经济快速发展,一方面要完善基础设施,加强市场化改革和制度创新等,以增强吸纳FDI的能力,实现以FDI数量的增长促进中西部地区更高的资本形成:另一方面更要注重培育本地企业对FDI的技术吸收能力,实现以FDI技术溢出效应的提高来促进中西部地区全要素生产率的提高。
总结来看,本文的研究创新点是,提出改革开放以来以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距以1990年为界呈现“U”型变化特征,1990年后东部地区与中西部地区之间的差距是以省区为单元的中国地区经济发展差距形成的主要贡献者:而形成东中西部地区差距的重要原因是由于FDI数量的非均衡分布导致了地区之间的资本形成差异和FDI技术溢出效应的非均衡分布导致了地区之间的全要素生产率差异;对中西部地区而言,要促进经济发展,一方面必须增强对FDI的吸收能力;另一方面更须增强当地企业对FDI的技术吸纳能力。
Since 1978,China has scored great achievement in economic growth,but the development is unbalanced.The speed of the economic growth in the developed east is higher than the developing middle and the developing west.The widening of regional economic gap has become one of the biggest challenges that influence the sustainable development.So the research of regional gap is important to theory and practice.The paper analyzes the forming reason and mechanism of the regional economic gap in China based on the FDI unbalanced distribution,at the same time, the paper brings forward the policy advice to reduce the regional economic gap in China.
The method of the research in the paper is impellent,and the basal research course is the following.Firstly,the author uses the Theil coefficient and Gini coefficient to analyze the regional economic gap,and decomposes the structure in China.At the same time,the author tests theσconvergence,the absoluteβconvergence,the conditionalβconvergence and the club convergence.Secondly, the author analyzes the forming reason and mechanism of the regional economic gap in China.Thirdly,the author explains the forming reason and mechanism of the regional economic gap in China based on the FDI unbalanced distribution.Lastly,the paper brings forward the policy advice.
The author discovers that the diversification of the regional gap according to the province cell in China behaved "U" form.The regional gap of between the east and the rest areas was enlarging.The regional gap of between the east and the rest areas was the primary contributor of the regional disparity according to the province cell in China from 1990's.From the industry to observe,the author discovers that the regional gap of the secondary industry was the primary contributor,but the rate of was descending.The third industry was becoming the important contributor.The industry structure adjusting and the agglomeration of the third industry and the secondary industry are the primary reason of the forming of the disparity of between the east and the rest areas.In the 1978 to 2005,the absolute convergence of economic growth didn't occur,the other way round,the club convergence of economic growth occurred in the east and in the middle.The speed of the economic growth in the east was higher about 1 centigrade than the middle and the developing west,and was higher about 2 centigrade than the west.The forming reasons of the regional economic gap are because of the capital gap and the TFP gap between the west and the rests.
The FDI distribution affects the regional economic gap in the two ways.On the one hand,because of the east attracting more FDI,there is more capital in the east.On the other hand,the techno-overflow of FDI is higher in the east than the rests.So the TFP is higher in the east than the rest.
Because the east has predominance in the policy,human capital,place,market and efficiency wage,FDI assembles in the east.The investment circumstances of FDI are bad in the middle and the west than the east in the place,policy,marketing, opening and the basic establishment.The reasons of the techno-overflow of FDI are lower in the middle and the west than the east is that the techno-overflow of FDI is lying on the investment history and proportion of FDI.When the investment time is longer and the investment proportion is higher,the techno-overflow of FDI is higher. Besides of the investment history and proportion,the bad studying capability of the westem corporations is the important reason.
So the middle and the west must enhance the capability of attracting FDI by consummating the basic establishment and enhancing marketing reform on the one hand.On the other hand,the middle and the west must enhance the capability of absorbing FDI technology by changing the industry policy and enhancing market competition.Depending on the increasing of FDI,the middle and the west will obtain capital.Depending on heightening of the techno-overflow of FDI the middle and the west will heighten the TFP the middle and the west.In the end,the middle and the west will develop faster.
In one word,there are the following innovations in the thesis:
Firstly,the thesis discovers that the diversification of the regional gap according to the province cell in China behaved "U" form.The regional gap of between the east and the rest areas was the primary contributor of the regional disparity according to the province cell in China from 1990's.
Secondly,the reasons of inducing regional gap are that the distribution of the FDI amount isn't equilibrium and the techno-overflow of the FDI isn't equilibrium also.
Lastly,the middle and the west must enhance the capability of attracting FDI and the capability of absorbing FDI technology.
引文
[1]Yang(1990)把改革前与地区发展相关的发展战略称为“毛泽东式的发展战略”,特点是高度依赖于再分配手段,试图缩小地区差距;把改革后的发展战略概括为“不平等的发展战略”。
[2]对中国经济增长是否存在增长的奇迹,特别是效率的提高,克鲁格曼提出了质疑。克鲁格曼认为:“亚洲取得了卓越的经济增长率.却没有与之相当的卓越的生产率增长。它的增长是投入的结果,而不是效率的提升。”
[2]对此中国许多经济学家进行了反驳,具体见樊纲等(2001)论述。
[3]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国的奇迹:发展战略与经济改革[M].上海:三联出版社.1998.
[4]王小鲁,樊纲.中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素[J].经济研究,2004,(1):78-92.
[5]地区差距是一个非常广泛的概念,但凡各地区之间只要在某一个方面,如资源禀赋、人口素质、教育水平、科技水平、基础设施、产业结构、经济效益、市场发育、经济发展水平、收人或消费水平、经济发展速度等,存在着某种差异,都可以认为存在着地区差距,然而仔细分析后我们会发现,在上述各种差距中除自然资源票赋方面的差异完全由自然力所决定外,其他各种差距相互之间均存在着千丝万缕的联系.而经济发展差距又处在核心的位置。有鉴于此,本文主要分析地区经济发展差距问题。
[6]胡鞍钢.中国战略构想[M].浙江:浙江人民出版社,2002.
[7]范剑勇.市场一体化、地区专业化与产业集聚趋势--兼谈论地区差距的影响[J].中国社会科学,2004,(6):46-58.
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[5]本文所指的三大地带按照通常的划分方式,即东部包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东,中部包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南,西部包括内蒙古、 四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆。由于数据获取方面的原因.东部的海南,西部的重庆和西藏没有纳入本文的研究范围,下文如果没有特别说明三大地带划分方法都是如此。
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