基于我国财政职能视角的财政支出研究
摘要
财政支出政策是国家宏观财政政策的重要组成部分,财政支出历来是国家实施政策的重要财政工具,也是国内外学者们研究的重点领域。本文从两个方面来诠释财政支出研究,一是以财政职能的视角系统地总结和分析财政支出的理论研究,二是分别对财政支出结构的经济增长效应、财政支出规模的经济增长效应、财政支出的区域经济增长效应以及财政支出的收入分配效应影响四个方面进行了实证研究。
论文研究内容主要包括:首先,采用Granger非因果关系检验来分别检验各项财政支出的显著性及其与经济增长的关系,同时利用脉冲响应函数来刻画各项财政支出与经济增长的相关性以优化财政支出结构;其次,以扩展的Ram(1986)理论模型为基础,通过将门限模型引入实证模型,以财政支出规模的代理变量作为门限变量,借助Hansen(1996, 2000)方法对实证模型进行估计,同时引入Armey曲线,计算出我国最优的财政支出规模;再次,使用NLS估计方法对我国的区域经济绝对收敛性和条件收敛性进行了分析,并且对转移支付作用进行了分析,进而考察财政支出对于区域经济的影响;最后,通过使用OLS估计方法和建立多元回归方程分别分析财政支出规模和财政支出结构对收入分配的影响,系统地分析了我国财政支出的收入分配效应。
Fiscal expenditure policy is an important part of national fiscal policy. Fiscal expenditure is also an essential fiscal tool and has been focused by domestic and foreign scholars. However, by concluding their studies, it can be found that there are many divergences on this field, such as the study of fiscal expenditure scale’s economic development, the study of fiscal expenditure structure’s economic development etc. There are also some problems on studying on research’s perspective, systematic organization and the use of analyzing method. Therefore this essay uses a new scientific and systematic perspective on the research of fiscal expenditure by enrolling the combination of theory and latest empirical methods. Perhaps it could bring new consideration for this kind of research on the fields of both theory and reality.
This essay analyzes the research of fiscal expenditure from two aspects. The first aspect is to concluding and analyzing fiscal expenditure’s research from the perspective of fiscal function. Another aspect is to do empirical study on four problems, and they are fiscal expenditure structure’s economic growth effect, fiscal expenditure scale’s economic growth effect, fiscal expenditure’regional economic growth effect and fiscal expenditure’s influence on income gap. The conclusion found is listed as follows:
1. Chinese government’s expenditure for capital construction, social security and policy-related subsidies are positive to economic growth. Additional appropriation for circulating capital of enterprises, innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, geological prospecting expense is negative to economic growth.
2. The main problem government’s expenditure structure facing is that fiscal expenditure is not enough and it wastes too much. Works and people afforded by government are expanding and some social works are needed to add to government’s fiscal expenditure. These problems are also need to taken into account.
3. When using fiscal expenditure scale as shield variable, shield effect could be found in expanded Ram (1986) model, and it means that there is a nonlinear concern between fiscal expenditure and economic growth. The finding also denies the linear concern between two factors used as a researching model, and the linear concern may be the main reason of divergence of past empirical researches.
4. There exists Armey curve in China’s economy. It also means best fiscal expenditure scale exists and when its ratio in GDP is 0.1675, fiscal expenditure can fit economic growth best. If fiscal expenditure scale surpasses the best scale, the low efficiency of deploying resources by the“spill out”effect will be negative to economic growth. Recent fiscal expenditure scale has surpassed the best scale, but it has positive effect on avoiding the“too hot economy”and related“hard landed”solution.
5. During 1995-2006 year, the absolute convergent coefficient of regional economy explains that China’s regional economy have not been absolute convergence. As the ordinary divided method, the absolute convergent coefficient of east area and middle area is bigger than zero, which means that economic growth of these areas have been convergent. Gap of provinces in the areas has been decreasing. Compared with east and middle areas, west area has no convergence. China’s regional gap has becoming bigger.
6. Taking fiscal expenditure as controlled variable, the convergent predicted result reveals that fiscal expenditure has not decreased regional gap, but been negative. Under the influence of fiscal expenditure, west area gap’s expanding is most evident, and the convergent coefficient of east and middle areas is a little decreased.
7. When using transferred payment, which is core tool of adjusting regional economic gap, as controlled variable, conditional convergent predicted result reveals that government’s transferred payment does not promote regional economic growth in phase. It maybe caused by two aspects, which is the unscientific use of transferred payment and the low efficiency of distributing of transferred payment.
8. China’s GINI coefficient has kept rising for years. Evaluated by international standard, it could by found that China has been one of the countries which has big income gap. The main performance of this problem is income gap between city and country, income gap between regional areas, income gap between industries.
9. During 1981-1996 years, government fiscal expenditure scale has strong negative effect on GINI coefficient, which means that fiscal expenditure has been effective on adjusting income distribution. After 1997, from which year the expanding fiscal policy has been used, government fiscal expenditure scale has been positive on GINI coefficient. Fiscal expenditure has not only been effective on decreasing income gap, but also stimulated the wideness of income gap. It also reveals that the fiscal expenditure after 1997 aims to strengthen economic growth instead of adjusting income distribution.
10. Expenditure for capital construction and expenditure for supporting rural production has been effective on adjusting income gap, and innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, expenditure on culture, education, science and public health, and expenditure security has not. Therefore it will be effective to strengthen these three kinds of fiscal expenditure to really adjusting the income gap.
This paper is organized as follows:
Chapter 1 Study on fiscal function theory and fiscal expenditure theory. This chapter is important part of this dissertation and it is theoretical base for followed chapter’s empirical study, which aims to providing explicit theoretical support and logical explanation. Firstly, this chapter gives an introduction of fiscal function theory on its development, divergence and China’s main fiscal function. Secondly, it introduces the development of fiscal expenditure theory and divides of main ideas. Finally, it concludes and analyzes fiscal expenditure’s research from the perspective of fiscal function, which includes fiscal expenditure structure’s economic growth effect, fiscal expenditure scale’s economic growth effect, fiscal expenditure’regional economic growth effect and fiscal expenditure’s influence on income gap.
Chapter 2 Study on fiscal expenditure structure’s effect. This chapter focuses on empirical study on China’s fiscal expenditure structure’s effect on economic growth. Firstly, this chapter gives an analysis of foreign and domestic studies on this kind of problem and finds the hot divergences and problems existed. Secondly, it gives a whole introduction of international divided methods of fiscal expenditure structure, especially that of the USA, Japan, India and Russia. Thirdly, it uses Granger Causality Test to examine the relationship between fiscal expenditure and economic growth and uses Pulse Response Function to figure out the relationship between fiscal expenditure and economic growth. By analyzing, it could be found that: 1. Chinese government’s expenditure for capital construction, social security and policy-related subsidies, additional appropriation for circulating capital of enterprises, innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, geological prospecting expense are significant under text of 10%. 2. Chinese government’s expenditure for capital construction, social security and policy-related subsidies are positive to economic growth. Additional appropriation for circulating capital of enterprises, innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, geological prospecting expense is negative to economic growth. 3. The main problem government’s expenditure structure facing is that fiscal expenditure is not enough and it wastes too much. Works and people afforded by government are expanding and some social works are needed to add to government’s fiscal expenditure. These problems are also need to taken into account. Finally, it gives chapter’s basic conclusion and advised policies.
Chapter 3 Study on fiscal expenditure scale’s effect. This chapter focuses on empirical study on China’s fiscal expenditure scale’s effect on economic growth. Firstly, it gives a main idea of problems by concluding and analyzing foreign and domestic studies on fiscal expenditure scale’s effect. Secondly, it gives an introduction of shield model and empirical model used in this chapter on the base of Hansen’s (1996, 2000) model. Thirdly, by analyzing the empirical study, it could be found that: 1. If uses fiscal expenditure scale as shield variable, shield effect could be found in expanded Ram (1986) model, and it means that there is a nonlinear concern between fiscal expenditure and economic growth. The finding also denies the linear concern between two factors used as a researching model, and the linear concern may be the main reason of divergence of past empirical researches. 2. There exists Armey curve in China’s economy. It also means best fiscal expenditure scale exists and when its ratio in GDP is 0.1675, fiscal expenditure can fit economic growth best. If fiscal expenditure scale surpasses the best scale, the low efficiency of deploying resources by the“spill out”effect will be negative to economic growth.3. Chinese government has same point on Keynes’s“fiscal expenditure’s expansion is helpful to decrease the influence of economic recession”, and during 1990-1997 years, fiscal policy used has been effective on adjusting fiscal expenditure scale’s effect on economic growth. 4. Recent fiscal expenditure scale has surpassed the best scale, but it has positive effect on avoiding the“too hot economy”and related“hard landed”solution. Finally, it gives chapter’s basic conclusion and advised policies.
Chapter 4 Study on fiscal expenditure’s effect on regional economy. This chapter focuses on empirical study on China’s fiscal expenditure’s influence on regional economy. Firstly, it does empirical study on economy’s convergence on the base of fiscal expenditure’s influence on regional economy from the perspective of fiscal expenditure. Secondly, it introduces some empirical models and data, and analyzes regional economy’s convergence from 1995 to 2006. Furthermore, it gives analyze on the influence of fiscal expenditure on regional economy’s convergence and the transferred payment. Thirdly, by analyzing the result, it could be found that: 1. During 1995-2006 year, the absolute convergent coefficient of regional economy explains that China’s regional economy have not been absolute convergence. As the ordinary divided method, the absolute convergent coefficient of east area and middle area is bigger than zero, which means that economic growth of these areas have been convergent. Gap of provinces in the areas has been decreasing. Compared with east and middle areas, west area has no convergence. China’s regional gap has becoming bigger.2. Taking fiscal expenditure as controlled variable, the convergent predicted result reveals that fiscal expenditure has not decreased regional gap, but been negative. Under the influence of fiscal expenditure, west area gap’s expanding is most evident, and the convergent coefficient of east and middle areas is a little decreased. 3. When using transferred payment, which is core tool of adjusting regional economic gap, as controlled variable, conditional convergent predicted result reveals that government’s transferred payment does not promote regional economic growth in phase. It maybe caused by two aspects, which is the unscientific use of transferred payment and the low efficiency of distributing of transferred payment. Finally, it gives chapter’s basic conclusion and advised policies.
Chapter 5 Study on fiscal expenditure’s effect on income distribution. This chapter focuses on empirical study on China’s fiscal expenditure’s effect on income distribution. Firstly, this chapter analyzes the situation of fiscal expenditure’s effect on income distribution. Secondly, it does empirical study on fiscal expenditure’s adjust on income distribution from two aspects, which is fiscal expenditure scale and fiscal expenditure structure by using actual data. Finally, by analyzing the result, it could be found that: 1. China’s GINI coefficient has kept rising for years. Evaluated by international standard, it could by found that China has been one of the countries which has big income gap. The main performance of this problem is income gap between city and country, income gap between regional areas, income gap between industries. 2. During 1981-1996 years, government fiscal expenditure scale has strong negative effect on GINI coefficient, which means that fiscal expenditure has been effective on adjusting income distribution. After 1997, from which year the expanding fiscal policy has been used, government fiscal expenditure scale has been positive on GINI coefficient. Fiscal expenditure has not only been effective on decreasing income gap, but also stimulated the wideness of income gap. It also reveals that the fiscal expenditure after 1997 aims to strengthen economic growth instead of adjusting income distribution. 3. Expenditure for capital construction and expenditure for supporting rural production has been effective on adjusting income gap, and innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, expenditure on culture, education, science and public health, and expenditure security has not. Therefore it will be effective to strengthen these three kinds of fiscal expenditure to really adjusting the income gap.
论文研究内容主要包括:首先,采用Granger非因果关系检验来分别检验各项财政支出的显著性及其与经济增长的关系,同时利用脉冲响应函数来刻画各项财政支出与经济增长的相关性以优化财政支出结构;其次,以扩展的Ram(1986)理论模型为基础,通过将门限模型引入实证模型,以财政支出规模的代理变量作为门限变量,借助Hansen(1996, 2000)方法对实证模型进行估计,同时引入Armey曲线,计算出我国最优的财政支出规模;再次,使用NLS估计方法对我国的区域经济绝对收敛性和条件收敛性进行了分析,并且对转移支付作用进行了分析,进而考察财政支出对于区域经济的影响;最后,通过使用OLS估计方法和建立多元回归方程分别分析财政支出规模和财政支出结构对收入分配的影响,系统地分析了我国财政支出的收入分配效应。
Fiscal expenditure policy is an important part of national fiscal policy. Fiscal expenditure is also an essential fiscal tool and has been focused by domestic and foreign scholars. However, by concluding their studies, it can be found that there are many divergences on this field, such as the study of fiscal expenditure scale’s economic development, the study of fiscal expenditure structure’s economic development etc. There are also some problems on studying on research’s perspective, systematic organization and the use of analyzing method. Therefore this essay uses a new scientific and systematic perspective on the research of fiscal expenditure by enrolling the combination of theory and latest empirical methods. Perhaps it could bring new consideration for this kind of research on the fields of both theory and reality.
This essay analyzes the research of fiscal expenditure from two aspects. The first aspect is to concluding and analyzing fiscal expenditure’s research from the perspective of fiscal function. Another aspect is to do empirical study on four problems, and they are fiscal expenditure structure’s economic growth effect, fiscal expenditure scale’s economic growth effect, fiscal expenditure’regional economic growth effect and fiscal expenditure’s influence on income gap. The conclusion found is listed as follows:
1. Chinese government’s expenditure for capital construction, social security and policy-related subsidies are positive to economic growth. Additional appropriation for circulating capital of enterprises, innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, geological prospecting expense is negative to economic growth.
2. The main problem government’s expenditure structure facing is that fiscal expenditure is not enough and it wastes too much. Works and people afforded by government are expanding and some social works are needed to add to government’s fiscal expenditure. These problems are also need to taken into account.
3. When using fiscal expenditure scale as shield variable, shield effect could be found in expanded Ram (1986) model, and it means that there is a nonlinear concern between fiscal expenditure and economic growth. The finding also denies the linear concern between two factors used as a researching model, and the linear concern may be the main reason of divergence of past empirical researches.
4. There exists Armey curve in China’s economy. It also means best fiscal expenditure scale exists and when its ratio in GDP is 0.1675, fiscal expenditure can fit economic growth best. If fiscal expenditure scale surpasses the best scale, the low efficiency of deploying resources by the“spill out”effect will be negative to economic growth. Recent fiscal expenditure scale has surpassed the best scale, but it has positive effect on avoiding the“too hot economy”and related“hard landed”solution.
5. During 1995-2006 year, the absolute convergent coefficient of regional economy explains that China’s regional economy have not been absolute convergence. As the ordinary divided method, the absolute convergent coefficient of east area and middle area is bigger than zero, which means that economic growth of these areas have been convergent. Gap of provinces in the areas has been decreasing. Compared with east and middle areas, west area has no convergence. China’s regional gap has becoming bigger.
6. Taking fiscal expenditure as controlled variable, the convergent predicted result reveals that fiscal expenditure has not decreased regional gap, but been negative. Under the influence of fiscal expenditure, west area gap’s expanding is most evident, and the convergent coefficient of east and middle areas is a little decreased.
7. When using transferred payment, which is core tool of adjusting regional economic gap, as controlled variable, conditional convergent predicted result reveals that government’s transferred payment does not promote regional economic growth in phase. It maybe caused by two aspects, which is the unscientific use of transferred payment and the low efficiency of distributing of transferred payment.
8. China’s GINI coefficient has kept rising for years. Evaluated by international standard, it could by found that China has been one of the countries which has big income gap. The main performance of this problem is income gap between city and country, income gap between regional areas, income gap between industries.
9. During 1981-1996 years, government fiscal expenditure scale has strong negative effect on GINI coefficient, which means that fiscal expenditure has been effective on adjusting income distribution. After 1997, from which year the expanding fiscal policy has been used, government fiscal expenditure scale has been positive on GINI coefficient. Fiscal expenditure has not only been effective on decreasing income gap, but also stimulated the wideness of income gap. It also reveals that the fiscal expenditure after 1997 aims to strengthen economic growth instead of adjusting income distribution.
10. Expenditure for capital construction and expenditure for supporting rural production has been effective on adjusting income gap, and innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, expenditure on culture, education, science and public health, and expenditure security has not. Therefore it will be effective to strengthen these three kinds of fiscal expenditure to really adjusting the income gap.
This paper is organized as follows:
Chapter 1 Study on fiscal function theory and fiscal expenditure theory. This chapter is important part of this dissertation and it is theoretical base for followed chapter’s empirical study, which aims to providing explicit theoretical support and logical explanation. Firstly, this chapter gives an introduction of fiscal function theory on its development, divergence and China’s main fiscal function. Secondly, it introduces the development of fiscal expenditure theory and divides of main ideas. Finally, it concludes and analyzes fiscal expenditure’s research from the perspective of fiscal function, which includes fiscal expenditure structure’s economic growth effect, fiscal expenditure scale’s economic growth effect, fiscal expenditure’regional economic growth effect and fiscal expenditure’s influence on income gap.
Chapter 2 Study on fiscal expenditure structure’s effect. This chapter focuses on empirical study on China’s fiscal expenditure structure’s effect on economic growth. Firstly, this chapter gives an analysis of foreign and domestic studies on this kind of problem and finds the hot divergences and problems existed. Secondly, it gives a whole introduction of international divided methods of fiscal expenditure structure, especially that of the USA, Japan, India and Russia. Thirdly, it uses Granger Causality Test to examine the relationship between fiscal expenditure and economic growth and uses Pulse Response Function to figure out the relationship between fiscal expenditure and economic growth. By analyzing, it could be found that: 1. Chinese government’s expenditure for capital construction, social security and policy-related subsidies, additional appropriation for circulating capital of enterprises, innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, geological prospecting expense are significant under text of 10%. 2. Chinese government’s expenditure for capital construction, social security and policy-related subsidies are positive to economic growth. Additional appropriation for circulating capital of enterprises, innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, geological prospecting expense is negative to economic growth. 3. The main problem government’s expenditure structure facing is that fiscal expenditure is not enough and it wastes too much. Works and people afforded by government are expanding and some social works are needed to add to government’s fiscal expenditure. These problems are also need to taken into account. Finally, it gives chapter’s basic conclusion and advised policies.
Chapter 3 Study on fiscal expenditure scale’s effect. This chapter focuses on empirical study on China’s fiscal expenditure scale’s effect on economic growth. Firstly, it gives a main idea of problems by concluding and analyzing foreign and domestic studies on fiscal expenditure scale’s effect. Secondly, it gives an introduction of shield model and empirical model used in this chapter on the base of Hansen’s (1996, 2000) model. Thirdly, by analyzing the empirical study, it could be found that: 1. If uses fiscal expenditure scale as shield variable, shield effect could be found in expanded Ram (1986) model, and it means that there is a nonlinear concern between fiscal expenditure and economic growth. The finding also denies the linear concern between two factors used as a researching model, and the linear concern may be the main reason of divergence of past empirical researches. 2. There exists Armey curve in China’s economy. It also means best fiscal expenditure scale exists and when its ratio in GDP is 0.1675, fiscal expenditure can fit economic growth best. If fiscal expenditure scale surpasses the best scale, the low efficiency of deploying resources by the“spill out”effect will be negative to economic growth.3. Chinese government has same point on Keynes’s“fiscal expenditure’s expansion is helpful to decrease the influence of economic recession”, and during 1990-1997 years, fiscal policy used has been effective on adjusting fiscal expenditure scale’s effect on economic growth. 4. Recent fiscal expenditure scale has surpassed the best scale, but it has positive effect on avoiding the“too hot economy”and related“hard landed”solution. Finally, it gives chapter’s basic conclusion and advised policies.
Chapter 4 Study on fiscal expenditure’s effect on regional economy. This chapter focuses on empirical study on China’s fiscal expenditure’s influence on regional economy. Firstly, it does empirical study on economy’s convergence on the base of fiscal expenditure’s influence on regional economy from the perspective of fiscal expenditure. Secondly, it introduces some empirical models and data, and analyzes regional economy’s convergence from 1995 to 2006. Furthermore, it gives analyze on the influence of fiscal expenditure on regional economy’s convergence and the transferred payment. Thirdly, by analyzing the result, it could be found that: 1. During 1995-2006 year, the absolute convergent coefficient of regional economy explains that China’s regional economy have not been absolute convergence. As the ordinary divided method, the absolute convergent coefficient of east area and middle area is bigger than zero, which means that economic growth of these areas have been convergent. Gap of provinces in the areas has been decreasing. Compared with east and middle areas, west area has no convergence. China’s regional gap has becoming bigger.2. Taking fiscal expenditure as controlled variable, the convergent predicted result reveals that fiscal expenditure has not decreased regional gap, but been negative. Under the influence of fiscal expenditure, west area gap’s expanding is most evident, and the convergent coefficient of east and middle areas is a little decreased. 3. When using transferred payment, which is core tool of adjusting regional economic gap, as controlled variable, conditional convergent predicted result reveals that government’s transferred payment does not promote regional economic growth in phase. It maybe caused by two aspects, which is the unscientific use of transferred payment and the low efficiency of distributing of transferred payment. Finally, it gives chapter’s basic conclusion and advised policies.
Chapter 5 Study on fiscal expenditure’s effect on income distribution. This chapter focuses on empirical study on China’s fiscal expenditure’s effect on income distribution. Firstly, this chapter analyzes the situation of fiscal expenditure’s effect on income distribution. Secondly, it does empirical study on fiscal expenditure’s adjust on income distribution from two aspects, which is fiscal expenditure scale and fiscal expenditure structure by using actual data. Finally, by analyzing the result, it could be found that: 1. China’s GINI coefficient has kept rising for years. Evaluated by international standard, it could by found that China has been one of the countries which has big income gap. The main performance of this problem is income gap between city and country, income gap between regional areas, income gap between industries. 2. During 1981-1996 years, government fiscal expenditure scale has strong negative effect on GINI coefficient, which means that fiscal expenditure has been effective on adjusting income distribution. After 1997, from which year the expanding fiscal policy has been used, government fiscal expenditure scale has been positive on GINI coefficient. Fiscal expenditure has not only been effective on decreasing income gap, but also stimulated the wideness of income gap. It also reveals that the fiscal expenditure after 1997 aims to strengthen economic growth instead of adjusting income distribution. 3. Expenditure for capital construction and expenditure for supporting rural production has been effective on adjusting income gap, and innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, expenditure on culture, education, science and public health, and expenditure security has not. Therefore it will be effective to strengthen these three kinds of fiscal expenditure to really adjusting the income gap.
引文
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