基于多智能体的整体建模仿真方法及其应用研究
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摘要
复杂科学研究已成为系统科学当前的一个主要研究方向，复杂科学研究开始于上世纪80年代中期，国外已经在理论与应用研究上取得了不少研究成果。特别是Swarm仿真平台出现后，它的研究步伐更快了。国内复杂性研究工作起步很早，但直到1997，才兴起复杂性研究的高潮，本文作者在国家自然科学基金项目复杂性研究专项——《基于多智能体的整体建模仿真方法及其应用研究》和校预研项目——《军事复杂适应系统理论、方法及应用研究》的支持下，对复杂系统的建模仿真方法，优化技术及其在经济系统中的应用进行了深入研究。
本文主要研究工作和创新点如下：
1、针对复杂适应系统理论及其在经济系统研究中存在的建模困难、问题，以复杂适应系统理论、整体建模思想和面向Agent的仿真为基础，提出一种基于多智能体的整体建模仿真方法。对这种方法的框架结构进行了详细的分析，对建模仿真步骤进行了详细的定义和说明。
2、提出了一种复合多层次遗传算法，给出复杂系统模型的模型层、Agent层和参数层的优化方法。
3、针对Agent的结构和特点，提出了三种综合提高Agent的智能和适应能力和模型复杂性表达能力的方法。一是通过采用规则演化技术来优化Agent的规则。二是借鉴了遗传算法中，粗粒度模型和细粒度模型的一些思想和方法，针对复杂适应系统中环境动态变化的特点，提出了一种基于环境选择的变粒度模型，通过对智能体空间位置、结构的演化分析，研究了智能体的位置变化，拓扑结构变化对智能体优化，对模型演化的影响。三是通过改变智能体间的关系，如博弈关系，利益矩阵，效益函数，获得能够适应由周围智能体所组成的软环境的智能Agent，并用它研究了经济系统中经济人之间的复杂博弈现象。
4、针对复杂系统中参数数量多，关系复杂的特点，采用基于遗传算法的多参数优化技术来解决和实现多参数协调、控制和优化问题。
5、借鉴《人工生命》和ASPEN模型的思想，采用上面所提出的方法和技术，给出了一个从单纯资源采集和自给自足到具有单一市场和贸易能力的“人工社会”的演化例。研究和解释了社会生活中的一些典型现象，例如：利益驱动下的Agent移动规律，Agent间的竞争和冲突，污染对Agent移动的影响，环境的负荷能力，具有生殖能力情况下的Agent
国防科学技术大学研究生院学位论文
人口动力学，在多资源条件下的Ag地间的贸易行为和规律，市场的作用与能力，以及价
格波动的原因和规律等。为经济政策的制定者和诀策者提供参考和有益的建议，也是对我
们所提出方法的有效检验。
Complex science study has now become one of the main direction of system science,this study start at the middle of 1980's and has get many useful research outcome. Now the steps of this study become more and more quick since the appearance of swarm simulation platform. Our country's study on complex science was early,but the upsurge came after 1997. With the support
of the national nature science fund complex special item-((Study of Multiagent-Based
Ensemble Modeling and Simulation Method and it's Application))and college research item --((The study of military complex adaptive system theory ,method and it's application)),the author has studied the complex system's modeling and simulating method,optimizing technique and it's economic application in-depth.
The main research contents and contributions of this paper are as fellows.
1 Aim at the modeling difficult and problems on the study of complex adaptive system theory and it's application in economic system,based on the complex adaptive system theory,ensemble modeling idea and agent-orient simulation,the author suggest a multi-agent based ensemble modeling and simulation method,the author analyzed this method's structure carefully,gave a careful define and explain of this modeling and simulation step.
2 The author suggested a multilayer genetic algorithm,gave an optimistic method of the complex system model on the model,agent and parameter levels.
3 Aim at the agent's structure and character,the author suggested three methods to advance the agent's intelligence and adaptability and the ability of express complex model. The first method is adopt evolving technical to optimize agent's rule. In the second method,refer to the idea of thick granularity model and fine granularity model used in the parallel genetic algorithm,aim at the changed dynamic environment of complex adaptive system,the author suggested an environment-select based change granularity model. Through the evolving analyzing of agent's position and structure,studied the influence of the agent's position and structure change on the evolving of agent and model. The last method,through change the relation of agents,such as game relation,benefit matrix and function,gained the intelligence agent who can adapt the soft environment composed of neighbor agent,simulated the complex
game phenomenon of economy agent in economic system.
4 Aim at the complex system's character that the parameter is too much and the relationship is too complexity,the author suggest adopting genetic algorithm based multiparameter optimize technique to solve the coordinate,control and optimize problem of parameters.
5 Refer to the ideas of((artificial life)} and ASPEN model,using this methods and techniques suggested above,the author gave an evaluting example of aritifical society which develop from the single resource collection and autarkic society to a society with single market and trade ability,Studied and explained the typical phenomenon in life. Such as the move rule of agent under the driving of benefit,competition and conflict between agents,the influence of pollution on agent's moving,the burthen of environment,the population dynamic of agent with propagate ability,the agent's trade behavior and rules under the multi-resource condition,the function and ability of market,the reason and laws of the price fluctuating. This give the economy policy constitutor and decision-making a reference and useful suggestion,also it is a testifying of our methods.
本文主要研究工作和创新点如下：
1、针对复杂适应系统理论及其在经济系统研究中存在的建模困难、问题，以复杂适应系统理论、整体建模思想和面向Agent的仿真为基础，提出一种基于多智能体的整体建模仿真方法。对这种方法的框架结构进行了详细的分析，对建模仿真步骤进行了详细的定义和说明。
2、提出了一种复合多层次遗传算法，给出复杂系统模型的模型层、Agent层和参数层的优化方法。
3、针对Agent的结构和特点，提出了三种综合提高Agent的智能和适应能力和模型复杂性表达能力的方法。一是通过采用规则演化技术来优化Agent的规则。二是借鉴了遗传算法中，粗粒度模型和细粒度模型的一些思想和方法，针对复杂适应系统中环境动态变化的特点，提出了一种基于环境选择的变粒度模型，通过对智能体空间位置、结构的演化分析，研究了智能体的位置变化，拓扑结构变化对智能体优化，对模型演化的影响。三是通过改变智能体间的关系，如博弈关系，利益矩阵，效益函数，获得能够适应由周围智能体所组成的软环境的智能Agent，并用它研究了经济系统中经济人之间的复杂博弈现象。
4、针对复杂系统中参数数量多，关系复杂的特点，采用基于遗传算法的多参数优化技术来解决和实现多参数协调、控制和优化问题。
5、借鉴《人工生命》和ASPEN模型的思想，采用上面所提出的方法和技术，给出了一个从单纯资源采集和自给自足到具有单一市场和贸易能力的“人工社会”的演化例。研究和解释了社会生活中的一些典型现象，例如：利益驱动下的Agent移动规律，Agent间的竞争和冲突，污染对Agent移动的影响，环境的负荷能力，具有生殖能力情况下的Agent
国防科学技术大学研究生院学位论文
人口动力学，在多资源条件下的Ag地间的贸易行为和规律，市场的作用与能力，以及价
格波动的原因和规律等。为经济政策的制定者和诀策者提供参考和有益的建议，也是对我
们所提出方法的有效检验。
Complex science study has now become one of the main direction of system science,this study start at the middle of 1980's and has get many useful research outcome. Now the steps of this study become more and more quick since the appearance of swarm simulation platform. Our country's study on complex science was early,but the upsurge came after 1997. With the support
of the national nature science fund complex special item-((Study of Multiagent-Based
Ensemble Modeling and Simulation Method and it's Application))and college research item --((The study of military complex adaptive system theory ,method and it's application)),the author has studied the complex system's modeling and simulating method,optimizing technique and it's economic application in-depth.
The main research contents and contributions of this paper are as fellows.
1 Aim at the modeling difficult and problems on the study of complex adaptive system theory and it's application in economic system,based on the complex adaptive system theory,ensemble modeling idea and agent-orient simulation,the author suggest a multi-agent based ensemble modeling and simulation method,the author analyzed this method's structure carefully,gave a careful define and explain of this modeling and simulation step.
2 The author suggested a multilayer genetic algorithm,gave an optimistic method of the complex system model on the model,agent and parameter levels.
3 Aim at the agent's structure and character,the author suggested three methods to advance the agent's intelligence and adaptability and the ability of express complex model. The first method is adopt evolving technical to optimize agent's rule. In the second method,refer to the idea of thick granularity model and fine granularity model used in the parallel genetic algorithm,aim at the changed dynamic environment of complex adaptive system,the author suggested an environment-select based change granularity model. Through the evolving analyzing of agent's position and structure,studied the influence of the agent's position and structure change on the evolving of agent and model. The last method,through change the relation of agents,such as game relation,benefit matrix and function,gained the intelligence agent who can adapt the soft environment composed of neighbor agent,simulated the complex
game phenomenon of economy agent in economic system.
4 Aim at the complex system's character that the parameter is too much and the relationship is too complexity,the author suggest adopting genetic algorithm based multiparameter optimize technique to solve the coordinate,control and optimize problem of parameters.
5 Refer to the ideas of((artificial life)} and ASPEN model,using this methods and techniques suggested above,the author gave an evaluting example of aritifical society which develop from the single resource collection and autarkic society to a society with single market and trade ability,Studied and explained the typical phenomenon in life. Such as the move rule of agent under the driving of benefit,competition and conflict between agents,the influence of pollution on agent's moving,the burthen of environment,the population dynamic of agent with propagate ability,the agent's trade behavior and rules under the multi-resource condition,the function and ability of market,the reason and laws of the price fluctuating. This give the economy policy constitutor and decision-making a reference and useful suggestion,also it is a testifying of our methods.
引文
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