生物质发电项目投资风险分析与决策研究
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摘要
上个世纪九十年代以来,我国能源消费伴随经济增长呈现飞速增长态势,能源供需形势经历了一个由生产与消费基本平衡的自给自足状态到能源进口的过程,能源危机与环境污染成为制约社会经济可持续化发展的关键问题。在这种形势下,积极开发包括生物质能源在内的可再生能源,实现对能源资源的高效化、清洁化利用,促进能源结构从单一性向多元化转变,成为当前解决能源-经济-环境问题的重要举措之一。生物质发电作为一种十分重要和有效的生物质能利用方式,在我国的发展时机日趋成熟。依据《可再生能源中长期发展规划》,到2020年我国生物质发电总装机容量将达到3000万千瓦的目标。然而,生物质发电的亏损问题一直是我国生物质发电产业的“绊脚石”。目前,我国大约有一百多个生物质发电项目投产运营,但绝大多数处于亏损边缘,因此,研究生物质发电项目投资风险具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本论文以生物质发电项目的投资风险为研究对象,以国内外项目投资和风险管理的相关理论为基础,结合多年从事生物质发电项目规划设计的实践经验,从生物质发电项目的特点出发,采用理论研究和实证检验相结合的方法,寻求有效识别、估计和评价生物质发电项目投资风险的理论和方法。本文将实物期权理论引入生物质发电项目投资风险决策领域,尝试以新的视角优化生物质发电项目投资决策。
本文的主要研究内容及结论有以下几个方面：
(1)研究生物质发电项目投资风险的来源和特征,运用IDEF0复杂系统分析方法建立了风险因素的一级指标体系和二级指标体系,并对各种风险因素做了分析和阐述。
(2)针对生物质发电项目燃料成本和上网电价做了具体的风险因素剖析,基于供应链理论提出燃料库存风险分担优化策略,基于经济学理论对电厂上网电价提出了具体的政策建议。在风险识别的基础上,给出了生物质发电项目投资风险评价的指标和方法体系。对传统评价方法进行了归纳,研究了生物质发电项目投资风险人工神经网络模型,构建了生物质发电项目投资风险的综合评价模型。
(3)在分析生物质发电项目实物期权种类与特性的基础上,指出生物质发电项目实物期权定价的基本思路及存在的主要困难,构建了生物质发电项目实物期权应用的框架,并建立了生物质发电项目延迟实物期权的定价模型。
(4)以某生物质发电项目为例,从工程的现状入手,分析了该项目面临的主要投资风险,根据有关成本数据进行实际的电厂燃料库存协调优化以降低燃料库存风险。在初步风险识别的基础上,通过专家咨询构建了该项目投资风险评价指标体系；利用BP神经网络模型对风险展开了多因素综合评价,确定了该项目的风险等级；最后运用实物期权法对该投资项目的可行性和传统投资决策方法进行了对比分析。
Since the 1990s, Chinese economic output and growth rate remained higher level. However, energy consumption also presents the same rapid growth; energy supply and demand situation has undergone a basic equilibrium by production and consumption of self-sufficiency to import energy state. The energy crisis and environment pollution become the key issues, which restrict social and economic sustainable development. In this situation, actively develop the renewable energy, including biomass energy sources, realize the clean efficiency of energy resources utilization, and promote energy structure transformation from oneness to diversification; become one of the most important measures to solve the problem of energy-economic-environmental problems. Biomass power generation as a very important and effective way of biomass energy use, the development opportunity already matures in China. In 2007, our country "renewable energy of long-term development" put forward by 2020, total installed capacity of biomass power generation reaching 3,000 million kilowatts. However, the loss of biomass power generation industry is always "the stumbling block" of the industry development in China. At present, our country has about 100 biomass power projects which have put into production, but the vast majority is in the loss edge. Therefore, the research on investment risk of biomass power project is of important theoretical and practical significance.
In this paper the investment risk of the biomass power projects being as research object, based on relevant theories of domestic and foreign investment and risk management, in the aspect of differences between the biomass generation and other technologies, adopting the method of combining the theoretical research and the empirical test, in order to search for an effective theory and method of identification, estimation and evaluation on biomass power generation project investment risk. This paper will introduce real option theory into investment risk decision-making domains of biomass power projects; try to put forward new perspective of project investment decision-making.
This research content and conclusion have the following aspects:
(1) To study the biomass power projects investment risk features and investment risk sources, using IDEF0 complex system analysis method to establish the risk factor of one and secondary class index system, and each of the risk factors is analyzed and expounded.
(2) To analyze the risk factors concretely according to biomass power projects fuel costs and power price, put forward fuel inventory risk allocation optimization strategy from supply chain risk management theory, put forward specific policy recommendations from economic theory to the power plant power price. The biomass power projects investment risk evaluation index system and the method system are given which are based on risk identification. The traditional evaluation method are summarized, study the biomass power projects investment risk artificial neural network model, and give out the comprehensive evaluation model of the biomass power projects investment risk.
(3) To base on the analysis of the types and characteristics of real options of biomass power generation project, points out the basic thought and finds out the main difficulties of the biomass power generation project real options pricing. Constructs the biomass power generation project real option application frameworks, establishes the biomass power projects delayed real option pricing model.
(4) To take a biomass power project, for example, this paper analyzes the main risks of the project from the status of the project, carries on the actual power plant fuel inventory coordination optimization for reducing fuel inventory risk. On the basis of preliminary risk identification, constructs the project risk assessment index system through consulting some experts. Launches multi-factor comprehensive evaluation on the project risk using BP neural network model, determines the project risk level. Finally using real option theory on the feasibility of investment projects, analyzes comparatively with traditional investment decision-making method and real option method.
本论文以生物质发电项目的投资风险为研究对象,以国内外项目投资和风险管理的相关理论为基础,结合多年从事生物质发电项目规划设计的实践经验,从生物质发电项目的特点出发,采用理论研究和实证检验相结合的方法,寻求有效识别、估计和评价生物质发电项目投资风险的理论和方法。本文将实物期权理论引入生物质发电项目投资风险决策领域,尝试以新的视角优化生物质发电项目投资决策。
本文的主要研究内容及结论有以下几个方面：
(1)研究生物质发电项目投资风险的来源和特征,运用IDEF0复杂系统分析方法建立了风险因素的一级指标体系和二级指标体系,并对各种风险因素做了分析和阐述。
(2)针对生物质发电项目燃料成本和上网电价做了具体的风险因素剖析,基于供应链理论提出燃料库存风险分担优化策略,基于经济学理论对电厂上网电价提出了具体的政策建议。在风险识别的基础上,给出了生物质发电项目投资风险评价的指标和方法体系。对传统评价方法进行了归纳,研究了生物质发电项目投资风险人工神经网络模型,构建了生物质发电项目投资风险的综合评价模型。
(3)在分析生物质发电项目实物期权种类与特性的基础上,指出生物质发电项目实物期权定价的基本思路及存在的主要困难,构建了生物质发电项目实物期权应用的框架,并建立了生物质发电项目延迟实物期权的定价模型。
(4)以某生物质发电项目为例,从工程的现状入手,分析了该项目面临的主要投资风险,根据有关成本数据进行实际的电厂燃料库存协调优化以降低燃料库存风险。在初步风险识别的基础上,通过专家咨询构建了该项目投资风险评价指标体系；利用BP神经网络模型对风险展开了多因素综合评价,确定了该项目的风险等级；最后运用实物期权法对该投资项目的可行性和传统投资决策方法进行了对比分析。
Since the 1990s, Chinese economic output and growth rate remained higher level. However, energy consumption also presents the same rapid growth; energy supply and demand situation has undergone a basic equilibrium by production and consumption of self-sufficiency to import energy state. The energy crisis and environment pollution become the key issues, which restrict social and economic sustainable development. In this situation, actively develop the renewable energy, including biomass energy sources, realize the clean efficiency of energy resources utilization, and promote energy structure transformation from oneness to diversification; become one of the most important measures to solve the problem of energy-economic-environmental problems. Biomass power generation as a very important and effective way of biomass energy use, the development opportunity already matures in China. In 2007, our country "renewable energy of long-term development" put forward by 2020, total installed capacity of biomass power generation reaching 3,000 million kilowatts. However, the loss of biomass power generation industry is always "the stumbling block" of the industry development in China. At present, our country has about 100 biomass power projects which have put into production, but the vast majority is in the loss edge. Therefore, the research on investment risk of biomass power project is of important theoretical and practical significance.
In this paper the investment risk of the biomass power projects being as research object, based on relevant theories of domestic and foreign investment and risk management, in the aspect of differences between the biomass generation and other technologies, adopting the method of combining the theoretical research and the empirical test, in order to search for an effective theory and method of identification, estimation and evaluation on biomass power generation project investment risk. This paper will introduce real option theory into investment risk decision-making domains of biomass power projects; try to put forward new perspective of project investment decision-making.
This research content and conclusion have the following aspects:
(1) To study the biomass power projects investment risk features and investment risk sources, using IDEF0 complex system analysis method to establish the risk factor of one and secondary class index system, and each of the risk factors is analyzed and expounded.
(2) To analyze the risk factors concretely according to biomass power projects fuel costs and power price, put forward fuel inventory risk allocation optimization strategy from supply chain risk management theory, put forward specific policy recommendations from economic theory to the power plant power price. The biomass power projects investment risk evaluation index system and the method system are given which are based on risk identification. The traditional evaluation method are summarized, study the biomass power projects investment risk artificial neural network model, and give out the comprehensive evaluation model of the biomass power projects investment risk.
(3) To base on the analysis of the types and characteristics of real options of biomass power generation project, points out the basic thought and finds out the main difficulties of the biomass power generation project real options pricing. Constructs the biomass power generation project real option application frameworks, establishes the biomass power projects delayed real option pricing model.
(4) To take a biomass power project, for example, this paper analyzes the main risks of the project from the status of the project, carries on the actual power plant fuel inventory coordination optimization for reducing fuel inventory risk. On the basis of preliminary risk identification, constructs the project risk assessment index system through consulting some experts. Launches multi-factor comprehensive evaluation on the project risk using BP neural network model, determines the project risk level. Finally using real option theory on the feasibility of investment projects, analyzes comparatively with traditional investment decision-making method and real option method.
引文
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