基于复杂交通系统的脆性理论研究
|
摘要
随着系统的结构越来越复杂,功能越来越完善,自动化程度也越来越高,系统的脆性问题也越来越成为系统的一个不容忽视的现象。系统的脆性一旦被激发,将会造成整个系统的崩溃,这会给整个系统带来不可估量的损失。因此分析脆性激发的原因、产生的机理、对脆性源的辨识与评价以及系统的脆性度等等与脆性有关的问题,就成为刻不容缓的大事。
在本论文中,首先通过介绍复杂系统研究的现阶段发展情况,说明了研究复杂系统脆性的重要性。接着给出了复杂系统脆性的定义,特点,以及脆性理论与其他科学理论的关系,并在此基础上给出了脆性联系函数的定义。
其次,鉴于模糊层次分析法在处理复杂的决策问题上的实用性和有效性,本文采用模糊层次分析法对复杂交通系统进行脆性源评价。通过对影响道路交通安全的因素进行分析,并结合实例,找到了导致交通系统脆性发生的脆性因素。仿真结果说明,采用模糊层次分析法来分析系统的脆性风险可以提高其评估准确性。为深入研究复杂系统的脆性问题奠定了一定的基础。
进一步,分析了系统脆性环境对系统脆性的作用,将系统脆性环境分解成系统的包含脆性事件和脆性因子的两层结构,对脆性事件和脆性因子分别进行分析,提出脆性因子是系统的脆性环境的根本要素,是影响系统脆性的本质原因。并且借鉴风险分析的相关理论,引出对系统的脆性程度进行评估的脆性度的定义。
最后,将脆性因子的模糊层次分析法和最大熵原理应用到复杂交通系统的脆性模型下层结构分析中,并对如何求得最佳的系统负荷信息量展开进一步研究,通过设计相应的数值优化算法对最大熵原理中的未知的拉格朗日乘子进行求解。然后,对一个具体的交通流问题进行仿真分析,得出交通系统的负荷信息量和脆性度的仿真结果。
Along with the system structure becoming more complex, the function becoming more perfect and the degree of automation becoming higher, the brittleness problem of system is becoming more and more a serious phenomena. When the brittleness of system is motivated, it will lead the whole system to collapse, bringing immeasurable loss to system. Thus analyzing the reason of brittleness being motivated, the mechanism of brittleness, the identification and evaluation of brittle source, brittleness degree of system and so on become a very urgent task.
This paper, firstly, shows the importance of doing research on complex system brittleness by introducing the current development of complex system. Then the definition and the characteristics of brittleness , the relation of brittleness theories and other scientific theories are given. On that basis, the definition of brittle link function is put forward.
Secondly, Fuzzy AHP can solve complex decision problems with good practicability and effectiveness, in consideration of which, fuzzy AHP is used to evaluate the brittleness source of complex traffic system. in this paper. Through the analysis of factors that affect the traffic system safety with a example, the brittleness factors that lead traffic system into collapse are found. The simulation result shows that adopting the Fuzzy AHP method to analyze the system brittleness risk can raise the evaluation accuracy, and lay certain foundation for deep research into system brittleness.
Moreover, the effect of system brittle environment on system brittleness is analyzed and the environment is broken down into a two layer structure which includes brittle events and brittle factors. Through analysis, brittle factors are the essential elements of system brittle environment and essential cause of system brittleness. In view of the relative risk analysis theories, the brittle degree of system is brought to evaluate the system brittleness.
Finally, Fuzzy AHP method based on brittle factors and maximum entropy principle are adopted into the under layer analysis of complex traffic system brittleness model. The deep research into getting the best system load information is made. Through corresponding numerical algorithm to solve unknown Lagrange multiplier in maximum entropy principle is designed. Then through the simulation analysis of a concrete traffic system, the simulation result of loading information amount and brittleness degree are obtained.
在本论文中,首先通过介绍复杂系统研究的现阶段发展情况,说明了研究复杂系统脆性的重要性。接着给出了复杂系统脆性的定义,特点,以及脆性理论与其他科学理论的关系,并在此基础上给出了脆性联系函数的定义。
其次,鉴于模糊层次分析法在处理复杂的决策问题上的实用性和有效性,本文采用模糊层次分析法对复杂交通系统进行脆性源评价。通过对影响道路交通安全的因素进行分析,并结合实例,找到了导致交通系统脆性发生的脆性因素。仿真结果说明,采用模糊层次分析法来分析系统的脆性风险可以提高其评估准确性。为深入研究复杂系统的脆性问题奠定了一定的基础。
进一步,分析了系统脆性环境对系统脆性的作用,将系统脆性环境分解成系统的包含脆性事件和脆性因子的两层结构,对脆性事件和脆性因子分别进行分析,提出脆性因子是系统的脆性环境的根本要素,是影响系统脆性的本质原因。并且借鉴风险分析的相关理论,引出对系统的脆性程度进行评估的脆性度的定义。
最后,将脆性因子的模糊层次分析法和最大熵原理应用到复杂交通系统的脆性模型下层结构分析中,并对如何求得最佳的系统负荷信息量展开进一步研究,通过设计相应的数值优化算法对最大熵原理中的未知的拉格朗日乘子进行求解。然后,对一个具体的交通流问题进行仿真分析,得出交通系统的负荷信息量和脆性度的仿真结果。
Along with the system structure becoming more complex, the function becoming more perfect and the degree of automation becoming higher, the brittleness problem of system is becoming more and more a serious phenomena. When the brittleness of system is motivated, it will lead the whole system to collapse, bringing immeasurable loss to system. Thus analyzing the reason of brittleness being motivated, the mechanism of brittleness, the identification and evaluation of brittle source, brittleness degree of system and so on become a very urgent task.
This paper, firstly, shows the importance of doing research on complex system brittleness by introducing the current development of complex system. Then the definition and the characteristics of brittleness , the relation of brittleness theories and other scientific theories are given. On that basis, the definition of brittle link function is put forward.
Secondly, Fuzzy AHP can solve complex decision problems with good practicability and effectiveness, in consideration of which, fuzzy AHP is used to evaluate the brittleness source of complex traffic system. in this paper. Through the analysis of factors that affect the traffic system safety with a example, the brittleness factors that lead traffic system into collapse are found. The simulation result shows that adopting the Fuzzy AHP method to analyze the system brittleness risk can raise the evaluation accuracy, and lay certain foundation for deep research into system brittleness.
Moreover, the effect of system brittle environment on system brittleness is analyzed and the environment is broken down into a two layer structure which includes brittle events and brittle factors. Through analysis, brittle factors are the essential elements of system brittle environment and essential cause of system brittleness. In view of the relative risk analysis theories, the brittle degree of system is brought to evaluate the system brittleness.
Finally, Fuzzy AHP method based on brittle factors and maximum entropy principle are adopted into the under layer analysis of complex traffic system brittleness model. The deep research into getting the best system load information is made. Through corresponding numerical algorithm to solve unknown Lagrange multiplier in maximum entropy principle is designed. Then through the simulation analysis of a concrete traffic system, the simulation result of loading information amount and brittleness degree are obtained.
引文
[1]尼科里斯,普利高津.探索复杂性[M].罗久里,陈奎宁译.成都:四川教育出版社,1986:1-23.
[2]哈肯.高等协同学[M].郭治安译.北京:科学出版社,1989:1-20.
[3]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学的新领域—开放的复杂巨系统及方法论[J].自然杂志,1990,13(3):3-10.
[4]戴汝为,操龙兵.一个开放的复杂巨系统[J].系统工程学报,2001,16(5):76-81.
[5]吴红梅,金鸿章,林德明等.复杂系统脆性理论风险分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(10):2019-2020.
[6] SAID M . Theory and practice of total ship survivability for ship design[J].Naval Engineers Journal,2005,107(4):191-203.
[7] REESE R,CALVNO C,HOPKINS T.Operationally oriented vulnerability requirements in the ship design process[J].Naval Engineers Journal,2006,110(1):19-34.
[8]王经民,王有科.黄土高原生态环境脆弱性计算方法探讨[J].水土保持通报,1996,5(32):36-43.
[9]金鸿章,李琦,吴红梅.基于脆性因子的复杂系统脆性分析[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2005,26(6):739-742.
[10]荣盘祥.复杂系统脆性及其理论框架的研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文,2006:48-52.
[11]林德明,金鸿章,靳相伟.基于元胞自动机的复杂系统脆性仿真[J].系统工程学报,2005,20(2):167-169.
[12]荣盘祥,金鸿章,韦琦.基于元胞自动机的复杂系统脆性研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2006,12(2):322-324.
[13]郭健.突变理论在复杂系统脆性理论研究中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2004:7-10.
[14] WEI Q,WEI X L,JIN H Z.Brittleness theory and its application on the analysis of sars[C].The Sixth World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation(WCICA),Hangzhou,2006:531-535.
[15] LIND N.Measure of vulnerability and damage tolerance[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2005,48(1):1-6.
[16] FAMULARO D,DORATO P.Robust non-fragile LQ controllers:the static state feedback case[J].International Journal of Control,2000,73(2):159-165.
[17] CIEZKI J G,ASHTON R W.Technology overview for a proposed navy surface combatant DC zonal electric distribution system[J].Conference Naval Engineers Journal,2005,111(3):59-69.
[18] ANG A H S,PIRES J A.A model for the seismic reliability assessment of electric-power transmission systems[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2006,51(1):7-22.
[19] EINARSSON S.Comparison of QRA and Vulnerability analysis:does analysis lead to more robust and resilient systems[J].Acta Polytechnica Scandinavica,Civil Engineering and Building Construction Series,1999,(114):1-27.
[20] Rennaker P R , Richardson S . New approach to vulnerability assessment[J].Journal of the American Helicopter Society,1999,44(1):38-41.
[21] REESE R M,CALVANO C N,HOPKINS T M.Operationally oriented vulnerability requirements in the ship design process[J].Naval Engineers Journal,2002,110(1):19-34.
[22] SOUTTER M,MUSY A.Global sensitivity analyses of three pesticide leaching models using a monte-carlo approach[J].Journal of Environmental Quality,2003,28(4):1290-1297.
[23] SOUTTER M , MUSY A . Coupling ID Monte-Carlo simulations and geostatistics to assess groundwater vulnerability to pesticide contamination on a regional scale[J].Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,1998,32(12):25-29.
[24] CELMINS A.Vulnerability assessment of fuzzy targets[J].Fuzzy Sets andSystems,2004,68(1):29-38.
[25] SZWAST Z,SIENIUTYCZ S,SHINER J S.Complexity principle of extremality in evolution of living organism by information-theoretic entropy[J].Chaos,Solitons and Fractals,2002,13:1871-1888.
[26] HE M X , RICCI P E . Information entropy of orthogonal polynomials[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation,2002,128:261-274.
[27]金鸿章,闫丽梅,徐建军.基于FAHP的复杂系统的脆性过程分析[J].系统工程,2004,22(6):2-4.
[28] JAE C O.Promoting cooperation using‘kin’biased conditional strategy in the iterated prisoner’s dilemma game[J].Information Science,2001,133:149-164.
[29] PAUL A S . Some game theory anecdotes[J] . Japan and The World Economy,2001,13(3):299-302.
[30] WILLIAMSEN J,BLACKLOCK K, EVANS,H J.Quantifying and reducing international space station vulnerability following orbital debris penetration[J].Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets,1999,36(1):133-141.
[31] HOLLAND J H.Escaping Brittleness:The possibilities of general purpose learning algorithms applied to parallel rule-based systems[M].An Artificial Intelligence Approach.Los Altos,CA:Morgan Kaufmann,2001:593-623.
[32] GUO J,WU D J.Researching the brittleness of traffic system based on cusp catastrophe model[C].International Conference Automation and Logistics (ICAL) IEEE,Qingdao,2008:2796-2800.
[33] GUO J,WU D J.Based on the relation of evaluation among system to analyze brittleness of complex system[C].The Sixth World Congress on International Control and Automation(WCICA),Hangzhou,2006:667-671.
[34]王辉,金鸿章.可修复复杂系统脆性故障的研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(19):105-110.
[35]韦琦.复杂系统脆性理论及其在危机控制中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文,2004:35-40.
[36]李琦.复杂系统的脆性模型分析[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文,2005:18-25.
[37]任鲁川.灾害熵:概念引入及应用案例[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):26-31.
[38]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.基于脆性熵的系统脆性研究[J].自动化技术与应用,2004,13(9):16-19.
[39]安春雷.单调关联复杂系统脆性研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文,2007:17-20.
[40]林康镛.关于熵概念的扩充问题[J].青岛建筑工程学院学报,1992,13(1):73-77
[41]赵克勤.集对分析与熵的研究[J].浙江大学校报,1992,32(2):65-72.
[42]闫丽梅.系统的脆性理论及其在电力系统中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文,2006:10-14.
[43]郭健.基于突变理论的复杂系统的脆性研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文,2003:25-32.
[44] AKIYAMA E,KANEKO K.Dynamical systems game theory II,a new approach to the problem of the social dilemma[J].Journal of Physic D,2002,28(9):1-36.
[45]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005:32-41.
[46]李士勇.工程模糊数学及应用[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2004:51-59.
[47]颜世强,王彦俊,刘桂义等.基于模糊数学的黄河山东段悬河稳定性评价[J].人民黄河,2008,30(1):10-12.
[48]仇东东,赵进法.交通安全系统的模糊综合评价方法[J].湖南交通科技,2003,29(3):116-117.
[49]齐庆杰等.道路交通安全评价方法[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2005,24(3):309-312.
[50]余廉等.公路交通灾害预警管理[M].石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,2004:18-25.
[51]刘勇.道路交通系统的熵理论应用研究[D].西安:长安大学,2003:29-31.
[52]俞礼军,严海,严宝杰.最大熵原理在交通流统计分布模型中的应用[J].交通运输工程学报,2001,1(3):91-93.
[53]俞礼军等.基于概率加权矩与最大熵原理的交通流统计分布估计方法[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(2):411-711.
[54] GUO J,WU D J.Qualitative analyzing brittleness of complex system based on catastrophe theory[C].Chinese Control and Decision Conference,Yan tai,2008:4465-4469.
[55]陈俊英,张冰.基于熵的复杂系统的脆性理论基础研究[J].微计算机信息,2008,24(2):309-310.
[56]李琦,金鸿章,林德明等.复杂系统的脆性模型及分析方法[J].系统工程,2005,23(1):9-12.
[2]哈肯.高等协同学[M].郭治安译.北京:科学出版社,1989:1-20.
[3]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学的新领域—开放的复杂巨系统及方法论[J].自然杂志,1990,13(3):3-10.
[4]戴汝为,操龙兵.一个开放的复杂巨系统[J].系统工程学报,2001,16(5):76-81.
[5]吴红梅,金鸿章,林德明等.复杂系统脆性理论风险分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(10):2019-2020.
[6] SAID M . Theory and practice of total ship survivability for ship design[J].Naval Engineers Journal,2005,107(4):191-203.
[7] REESE R,CALVNO C,HOPKINS T.Operationally oriented vulnerability requirements in the ship design process[J].Naval Engineers Journal,2006,110(1):19-34.
[8]王经民,王有科.黄土高原生态环境脆弱性计算方法探讨[J].水土保持通报,1996,5(32):36-43.
[9]金鸿章,李琦,吴红梅.基于脆性因子的复杂系统脆性分析[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2005,26(6):739-742.
[10]荣盘祥.复杂系统脆性及其理论框架的研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文,2006:48-52.
[11]林德明,金鸿章,靳相伟.基于元胞自动机的复杂系统脆性仿真[J].系统工程学报,2005,20(2):167-169.
[12]荣盘祥,金鸿章,韦琦.基于元胞自动机的复杂系统脆性研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2006,12(2):322-324.
[13]郭健.突变理论在复杂系统脆性理论研究中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2004:7-10.
[14] WEI Q,WEI X L,JIN H Z.Brittleness theory and its application on the analysis of sars[C].The Sixth World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation(WCICA),Hangzhou,2006:531-535.
[15] LIND N.Measure of vulnerability and damage tolerance[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2005,48(1):1-6.
[16] FAMULARO D,DORATO P.Robust non-fragile LQ controllers:the static state feedback case[J].International Journal of Control,2000,73(2):159-165.
[17] CIEZKI J G,ASHTON R W.Technology overview for a proposed navy surface combatant DC zonal electric distribution system[J].Conference Naval Engineers Journal,2005,111(3):59-69.
[18] ANG A H S,PIRES J A.A model for the seismic reliability assessment of electric-power transmission systems[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2006,51(1):7-22.
[19] EINARSSON S.Comparison of QRA and Vulnerability analysis:does analysis lead to more robust and resilient systems[J].Acta Polytechnica Scandinavica,Civil Engineering and Building Construction Series,1999,(114):1-27.
[20] Rennaker P R , Richardson S . New approach to vulnerability assessment[J].Journal of the American Helicopter Society,1999,44(1):38-41.
[21] REESE R M,CALVANO C N,HOPKINS T M.Operationally oriented vulnerability requirements in the ship design process[J].Naval Engineers Journal,2002,110(1):19-34.
[22] SOUTTER M,MUSY A.Global sensitivity analyses of three pesticide leaching models using a monte-carlo approach[J].Journal of Environmental Quality,2003,28(4):1290-1297.
[23] SOUTTER M , MUSY A . Coupling ID Monte-Carlo simulations and geostatistics to assess groundwater vulnerability to pesticide contamination on a regional scale[J].Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,1998,32(12):25-29.
[24] CELMINS A.Vulnerability assessment of fuzzy targets[J].Fuzzy Sets andSystems,2004,68(1):29-38.
[25] SZWAST Z,SIENIUTYCZ S,SHINER J S.Complexity principle of extremality in evolution of living organism by information-theoretic entropy[J].Chaos,Solitons and Fractals,2002,13:1871-1888.
[26] HE M X , RICCI P E . Information entropy of orthogonal polynomials[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation,2002,128:261-274.
[27]金鸿章,闫丽梅,徐建军.基于FAHP的复杂系统的脆性过程分析[J].系统工程,2004,22(6):2-4.
[28] JAE C O.Promoting cooperation using‘kin’biased conditional strategy in the iterated prisoner’s dilemma game[J].Information Science,2001,133:149-164.
[29] PAUL A S . Some game theory anecdotes[J] . Japan and The World Economy,2001,13(3):299-302.
[30] WILLIAMSEN J,BLACKLOCK K, EVANS,H J.Quantifying and reducing international space station vulnerability following orbital debris penetration[J].Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets,1999,36(1):133-141.
[31] HOLLAND J H.Escaping Brittleness:The possibilities of general purpose learning algorithms applied to parallel rule-based systems[M].An Artificial Intelligence Approach.Los Altos,CA:Morgan Kaufmann,2001:593-623.
[32] GUO J,WU D J.Researching the brittleness of traffic system based on cusp catastrophe model[C].International Conference Automation and Logistics (ICAL) IEEE,Qingdao,2008:2796-2800.
[33] GUO J,WU D J.Based on the relation of evaluation among system to analyze brittleness of complex system[C].The Sixth World Congress on International Control and Automation(WCICA),Hangzhou,2006:667-671.
[34]王辉,金鸿章.可修复复杂系统脆性故障的研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(19):105-110.
[35]韦琦.复杂系统脆性理论及其在危机控制中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文,2004:35-40.
[36]李琦.复杂系统的脆性模型分析[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文,2005:18-25.
[37]任鲁川.灾害熵:概念引入及应用案例[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):26-31.
[38]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.基于脆性熵的系统脆性研究[J].自动化技术与应用,2004,13(9):16-19.
[39]安春雷.单调关联复杂系统脆性研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文,2007:17-20.
[40]林康镛.关于熵概念的扩充问题[J].青岛建筑工程学院学报,1992,13(1):73-77
[41]赵克勤.集对分析与熵的研究[J].浙江大学校报,1992,32(2):65-72.
[42]闫丽梅.系统的脆性理论及其在电力系统中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文,2006:10-14.
[43]郭健.基于突变理论的复杂系统的脆性研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文,2003:25-32.
[44] AKIYAMA E,KANEKO K.Dynamical systems game theory II,a new approach to the problem of the social dilemma[J].Journal of Physic D,2002,28(9):1-36.
[45]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005:32-41.
[46]李士勇.工程模糊数学及应用[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2004:51-59.
[47]颜世强,王彦俊,刘桂义等.基于模糊数学的黄河山东段悬河稳定性评价[J].人民黄河,2008,30(1):10-12.
[48]仇东东,赵进法.交通安全系统的模糊综合评价方法[J].湖南交通科技,2003,29(3):116-117.
[49]齐庆杰等.道路交通安全评价方法[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2005,24(3):309-312.
[50]余廉等.公路交通灾害预警管理[M].石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,2004:18-25.
[51]刘勇.道路交通系统的熵理论应用研究[D].西安:长安大学,2003:29-31.
[52]俞礼军,严海,严宝杰.最大熵原理在交通流统计分布模型中的应用[J].交通运输工程学报,2001,1(3):91-93.
[53]俞礼军等.基于概率加权矩与最大熵原理的交通流统计分布估计方法[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(2):411-711.
[54] GUO J,WU D J.Qualitative analyzing brittleness of complex system based on catastrophe theory[C].Chinese Control and Decision Conference,Yan tai,2008:4465-4469.
[55]陈俊英,张冰.基于熵的复杂系统的脆性理论基础研究[J].微计算机信息,2008,24(2):309-310.
[56]李琦,金鸿章,林德明等.复杂系统的脆性模型及分析方法[J].系统工程,2005,23(1):9-12.