基于熵与非合作博弈理论的煤矿系统的脆性研究
|
摘要
随着社会的进展、科学技术的发展,以及控制论、信息论、系统论和计算机技术的飞速发展,我们所面对的控制对象也越来越复杂,因此对于复杂系统的研究成为了当前的研究热点。目前普遍认为,复杂系统具有复杂性、开放性、非线性、进化和涌现性、层次性、巨量性。但是,在复杂系统运行时,对于一个子系统,由于外部干扰的不确定性和内部进化的不完善,一个极小的干扰就可能使其突然崩溃,进而导致整个系统进入无序状态产生崩溃,这就引出了脆性的概念。
在本论文中,首先通过介绍复杂系统研究的现阶段发展情况,说明了研究复杂系统脆性的重要性。接着在介绍复杂系统的同时,本文给出了对复杂系统的定义及判断方法。
其次,在对复杂系统的研究的基础之上,提出脆性是复杂系统的一个基本特性。给出了系统的脆性的定义,脆性的特点,以及脆性基元的结构,为复杂系统的脆性的进一步分析建立了理论基础。接着在一个脆性基元内,定义了子系统脆性同一、对立、波动,以及脆性联系函数的概念。进而,利用集对分析理论,定义了系统脆性联系熵的概念。
再次,在复杂系统脆性理论的研究中引入非合作博弈的理论,指出正是由于各个子系统为了追求个体利益,而导致了整个复杂系统的整体利益的损失。环境的负熵并非取之不尽,非合作博弈争取负熵的结果导致了系统的脆性被激发而崩溃。在此基础上分析煤矿系统瓦斯爆炸的脆性过程,在非合作博弈状况下对煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故系统脆性熵增进行模拟仿真,仿真结果说明,非合作博弈和系统的脆性熵增是导致系统崩溃的原因,但是通过有效的手段可以使系统延缓崩溃甚至避免崩溃的发生。
最后,根据乡镇煤矿的现状仿真了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故内部脆性度的大小,系统在没有外界干扰的情况下内部脆性度的变化趋势在一定时期内处于饱和期,在饱和期事故发生的概率在没有外界负熵流的情况下,只会处于居高不下的状态,因此政府必须对事故进行控制,即外界环境给予负熵流的补充。比较在管理方面、人为、技术、设备方面进行控制的不同,得出有效控制瓦斯爆炸事故发生的措施。
Along with the development of society and the improvement in technology , systems become huger and huger , more and more complex. Therefore the study of complex system becomes the hotspot.At present, complex system is widely considered as the system,which is characterized by openness , complexity , giant , evolution , emergence and hierarchy. However,while the complex system is running,because of the interferences of internal uncertainty and evolution of interior imperfection , a minimum interference may cause the subsystem to collapse,which leads the whole system to be into the disorder state and collapse.So the brittleness conception is risen.
In this paper,firstly,through introducing the current stage development of complex system,that shows the importance of doing research on complex system brittleness.Then while introducing the complex system,this paper gives the definition and judgement method of complex system.
Secondly , this paper brings forward that brittleness is the basic characteristic of complex system,then gives the definition of the brittleness, the characteristics of the brittleness and the structure of the brittle basic element . These theories establish the theoretical foundation for further analysing of complex system brittleness . Then , brittle sameness , brittle opposite,brittle fluctuation and brittle link function is established in a brittle basic element.Meanwhile,according to set pair theory,concept of brittle link entropy is defined.
Moreover , non-cooperative game theory is applied to brittleness of complex system,just because the different subsystems pursue the individual profit,the whole interest of complex system has to see the loss.However, the negative entropy is not unlimited,when the subsystems cannot obtain the negative entropy from the enviroment,the entropy will reach the critical point of collapse.Based on that,we analyse the brittleness process of colliery gas explosion under the enviroment of non-cooperative game dynamics and establishe the brittle simulation model.The results of simulation show that the collapse of complex is due to the entropy increase of subsystems in a brittle basic element and non-cooperative game dynamics,however,the effective methods can make the system delay or even avoid collapsing.
Finally,regarding the present town colliery as a example of brittleness degree.In the situation of no interference,the trend of interior brittleness degree will be steady in a period.In this period,the probability of accident will be in a high level,so the government must controll the accident.Comparing the differences among supervising,human being,technique and equipment, the effective method to controll the accident will be found.
在本论文中,首先通过介绍复杂系统研究的现阶段发展情况,说明了研究复杂系统脆性的重要性。接着在介绍复杂系统的同时,本文给出了对复杂系统的定义及判断方法。
其次,在对复杂系统的研究的基础之上,提出脆性是复杂系统的一个基本特性。给出了系统的脆性的定义,脆性的特点,以及脆性基元的结构,为复杂系统的脆性的进一步分析建立了理论基础。接着在一个脆性基元内,定义了子系统脆性同一、对立、波动,以及脆性联系函数的概念。进而,利用集对分析理论,定义了系统脆性联系熵的概念。
再次,在复杂系统脆性理论的研究中引入非合作博弈的理论,指出正是由于各个子系统为了追求个体利益,而导致了整个复杂系统的整体利益的损失。环境的负熵并非取之不尽,非合作博弈争取负熵的结果导致了系统的脆性被激发而崩溃。在此基础上分析煤矿系统瓦斯爆炸的脆性过程,在非合作博弈状况下对煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故系统脆性熵增进行模拟仿真,仿真结果说明,非合作博弈和系统的脆性熵增是导致系统崩溃的原因,但是通过有效的手段可以使系统延缓崩溃甚至避免崩溃的发生。
最后,根据乡镇煤矿的现状仿真了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故内部脆性度的大小,系统在没有外界干扰的情况下内部脆性度的变化趋势在一定时期内处于饱和期,在饱和期事故发生的概率在没有外界负熵流的情况下,只会处于居高不下的状态,因此政府必须对事故进行控制,即外界环境给予负熵流的补充。比较在管理方面、人为、技术、设备方面进行控制的不同,得出有效控制瓦斯爆炸事故发生的措施。
Along with the development of society and the improvement in technology , systems become huger and huger , more and more complex. Therefore the study of complex system becomes the hotspot.At present, complex system is widely considered as the system,which is characterized by openness , complexity , giant , evolution , emergence and hierarchy. However,while the complex system is running,because of the interferences of internal uncertainty and evolution of interior imperfection , a minimum interference may cause the subsystem to collapse,which leads the whole system to be into the disorder state and collapse.So the brittleness conception is risen.
In this paper,firstly,through introducing the current stage development of complex system,that shows the importance of doing research on complex system brittleness.Then while introducing the complex system,this paper gives the definition and judgement method of complex system.
Secondly , this paper brings forward that brittleness is the basic characteristic of complex system,then gives the definition of the brittleness, the characteristics of the brittleness and the structure of the brittle basic element . These theories establish the theoretical foundation for further analysing of complex system brittleness . Then , brittle sameness , brittle opposite,brittle fluctuation and brittle link function is established in a brittle basic element.Meanwhile,according to set pair theory,concept of brittle link entropy is defined.
Moreover , non-cooperative game theory is applied to brittleness of complex system,just because the different subsystems pursue the individual profit,the whole interest of complex system has to see the loss.However, the negative entropy is not unlimited,when the subsystems cannot obtain the negative entropy from the enviroment,the entropy will reach the critical point of collapse.Based on that,we analyse the brittleness process of colliery gas explosion under the enviroment of non-cooperative game dynamics and establishe the brittle simulation model.The results of simulation show that the collapse of complex is due to the entropy increase of subsystems in a brittle basic element and non-cooperative game dynamics,however,the effective methods can make the system delay or even avoid collapsing.
Finally,regarding the present town colliery as a example of brittleness degree.In the situation of no interference,the trend of interior brittleness degree will be steady in a period.In this period,the probability of accident will be in a high level,so the government must controll the accident.Comparing the differences among supervising,human being,technique and equipment, the effective method to controll the accident will be found.
引文
[1] BERTALANFF L V.General System Theory [M].New York,1968.
[2]尼科里斯,普里高津.探索复杂性[M].罗久里,陈奎宁译,成都:四川教育出版社,1986:1-23.
[3]哈肯.高等协同学[M].郭治安译.北京:科学出版社,1989:1-20.
[4]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学的新领域—开放的复杂巨系统及方法论[J].自然杂志.1990,13(3):3-10.
[5]苗东升.复杂性研究现状与展望.系统辨证学学报[J].2001,9(4):3-9.
[6]颜泽贤,陈忠,胡皓编.复杂系统演化论[M].人民出版社,1993年12月:40-70.
[7]姜璐.复杂系统的层次结构[J].自然辩证法研究.1994年,第10卷第2期:16-21.
[8]李夏,戴汝为.系统科学与复杂性[J].自动化学报.1998年3月,第24卷第2期:200-207.
[9]霍兰.涌现[M].陈禹等译.上海:上海科学出版社,2001:4-9.
[10]戴汝为,操龙兵.一个开放的复杂巨系统[J].系统工程学报.2001,16(5):76-81.
[11]王迪兴.复杂适应系统的共性描述[J].系统辨证学学报.2001,9(4): 40-43.
[12] HOLLAND J H,Hidden O.How Adaptation Builds Complexity.Perseus Books,eading,assachusetts,1995:185.
[13] HOLLAND J H.Emergence:From Chaos to Order[M].HelixBooks, Reading,Massachusetts,1998:258.
[14] TERO O,RAMJEE P著.朱旭红,卢学军等译.宽带CDMA:第三代移动通信技术[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2001:1-23.
[15]张嗣赢.复杂系统与复杂性科学简介[J].青岛大学学报.2001,16(4): 25-28.
[16]颜泽贤,陈忠,胡皓编.复杂系统演化论[M].人民出版社,1993年:40-70.
[17] DOMENICOF P D.Robust non-fragile LQ controllers:the ststic statefeedback case[J]. International journal of control.2000,73(2):159-165.
[18] CIEZKI J G.,ASHTON R W.Technology overview for a proposed navy surface combatant DC zonal electric distribution system[J].Conference Naval Engineers Journal .1999,111(3):59-69.
[19] AIVARS C.Vulnerability assessment of fuzzy targets.Fuzzy Sets and Systems.1994,68(1):29-38.
[20] ANG A H S,PIRES J A.A model for the seismic reliability assessment of electric-power transmission systems Reliability Engineering &system safety[J].1996,51(1):7-22.
[21] STEFAN E.Comparision of QRA and Vulnerability analysis:does analysis lead to more robust and resilient systems?Acta Polytechnica Scandinavica,Civil Engineering and Building Construction Series[J].1999,(114):1-27.
[22] RENNAKER P R , RICHARDSON S . New approach to vulnerability assessment[J].Journal of the American Helicoper Society.1999,44(1):38-41.
[23] HOPKINS R,RONALD M C,CHARLES N T.Operationally oriented vulnerability requirements in the ship design process[J].Naval Engineers Journal.1998,110(1):19-34.
[24] NDRE S M M.lobal sensitivity analyses of three pesticide leaching models using a Monte-Carlo approach[J].ournal of Environmental Quality.1999,28(4):1290-1297.
[25] SOUTTER M M A.Coupling 1D Monte-Carlo simulations and geostatistics to assess groundwater vulnerability to pesticide contamination on a regional scale[J].Journel of Contaminant Hydrology.1998,32(1-2):25-29.
[26]王经民,王有科.黄土高原生态环境脆弱性计算方法探讨[J].水土保持通报.1996(32):36-43
[27] WILLIANMSEN B J , HILARY E K . Quantifying and reducing International Space Station vulnerability following orbital debris penetration[J].Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets.1999,36(1):133-141.
[28] SAID M O.Theory and practice of total ship survivability for ship design[J] Naval Engineers Journal .1995,107(4):191-203.
[29] REESE R M C,CHARLES N H.Operationally oriented vulnerability requirements in the ship design process[J] . Naval Engineers Journal .1998,110(1):19-34.
[30] VASSALOS D,TURAN O,KONOVESSIS D,TUZCU C.Comparison between prescriptive and performance-based criteria for assessing ro-ro damage survivability International Shipbuilding Progress[J] . 1998 ,45(444):351-382.
[31] VASSALOS D,TURAN O,MACIEJ P.Dynamic stability assessment of damaged passenger/ro-ro ships and proposal of rational survival criteria Marine Technology .1997,34(4):241-266.
[32] HOLLAND J H.Escaping Brittleness:The possibilities of General Purpose Learning Algorithms Applied to Parallel Rule-Based Systems.In:Michals Ki R S,Carbonell J G,Mitchell T M(Eds),Machine LearningⅡ,Los Altos,CA:Morgan Kaufmann.1986:593-623.
[33] LIND N C.Measure of vulnerability and damage tolerance[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety.1995,48(1):1-6.
[34]韦琦.复杂系统脆性理论及其在危机控制中的应用[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2004.
[35]任鲁川.灾害熵:概念引入及应用案例[J].自然灾害学报.2000,9(2): 26-31.
[36]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.基于脆性熵的系统脆性研究[J].自动化技术与应用.2004年第9期:16-19.
[37]林康镛.关于熵概念的扩充问题[J].青岛建筑工程学院学报.1992,13(1): 73-77
[38]任叔良,赵克勤.集对分析在企业能源管理中的应用探讨[J].能源工程.1996,(3 ):21-23.
[39]赵克勤,宣爱理.集对论—一种新的不确定性理论、方法、应用[J].系统工程.1 996,(1):18-23.
[40]赵克勤.集对分析与熵的研究[J].浙江大学校报.1992(2):65-72.
[41]荣盘祥.复杂系统脆性及其理论框架的研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2006.
[42]荣盘祥,金鸿章,韦琦.基于元胞自动机的复杂系统脆性研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报.2006年第2期.
[43]吴红梅.复杂系统脆性理论在煤矿事故建模中的应用[D].哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文.2006.
[44] ZBIGNIEW S,STANISLAW S,SHINER J S.Complexity Principle of Extremality in Evolution of Living Organism by Information-theoretic Entropy[J].Chaos,Solitons and Fractals.2002,13:1871-1888.
[45] HE M X , RICCI P E . Information Entropy of Orthogonal Polynomials[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation .2002,128:261-274.
[46] RICCIARDIA G,ELISHAKO I.A Novel Local Stochastic Linearization Method Via Two extremum Entropy Principles[J].International Journal of Non-Linear Mechanics.2002,37:785-800.
[47]王正中.复杂系统仿真方法及应用[J].计算机仿真.2001,18(1):3-6.
[48] JAE C O.Promoting Cooperation Using‘kin’Biased Conditional Strategy in The Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma Game.Information Science.2001,133: 149-164.
[49] PAUL A S.Some Game Theory Anecdotes[M].Japan and the World Economy.2001,13:299-302.
[50] EIZO A,KANEKO K.Dynamical Systems Game Theory II,A New Approach to The Problem of The Social Dilemma[M].Physic D.2002,2891:1-36.
[51]叶民强,林峰.区域人口、资源与环境公平性问题的博弈分析[J].上海财经大学学报.2001,3(5):10-15.
[52] NASH J,贝兴亚译.非合作博弈[J].系统工程.1996,14(2):21-26.
[53] 2003年国有煤矿安全生产基本情况. http://www.Chinasafety.gov.cn/files.2004-08/16/.2004.9.16
[2]尼科里斯,普里高津.探索复杂性[M].罗久里,陈奎宁译,成都:四川教育出版社,1986:1-23.
[3]哈肯.高等协同学[M].郭治安译.北京:科学出版社,1989:1-20.
[4]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学的新领域—开放的复杂巨系统及方法论[J].自然杂志.1990,13(3):3-10.
[5]苗东升.复杂性研究现状与展望.系统辨证学学报[J].2001,9(4):3-9.
[6]颜泽贤,陈忠,胡皓编.复杂系统演化论[M].人民出版社,1993年12月:40-70.
[7]姜璐.复杂系统的层次结构[J].自然辩证法研究.1994年,第10卷第2期:16-21.
[8]李夏,戴汝为.系统科学与复杂性[J].自动化学报.1998年3月,第24卷第2期:200-207.
[9]霍兰.涌现[M].陈禹等译.上海:上海科学出版社,2001:4-9.
[10]戴汝为,操龙兵.一个开放的复杂巨系统[J].系统工程学报.2001,16(5):76-81.
[11]王迪兴.复杂适应系统的共性描述[J].系统辨证学学报.2001,9(4): 40-43.
[12] HOLLAND J H,Hidden O.How Adaptation Builds Complexity.Perseus Books,eading,assachusetts,1995:185.
[13] HOLLAND J H.Emergence:From Chaos to Order[M].HelixBooks, Reading,Massachusetts,1998:258.
[14] TERO O,RAMJEE P著.朱旭红,卢学军等译.宽带CDMA:第三代移动通信技术[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2001:1-23.
[15]张嗣赢.复杂系统与复杂性科学简介[J].青岛大学学报.2001,16(4): 25-28.
[16]颜泽贤,陈忠,胡皓编.复杂系统演化论[M].人民出版社,1993年:40-70.
[17] DOMENICOF P D.Robust non-fragile LQ controllers:the ststic statefeedback case[J]. International journal of control.2000,73(2):159-165.
[18] CIEZKI J G.,ASHTON R W.Technology overview for a proposed navy surface combatant DC zonal electric distribution system[J].Conference Naval Engineers Journal .1999,111(3):59-69.
[19] AIVARS C.Vulnerability assessment of fuzzy targets.Fuzzy Sets and Systems.1994,68(1):29-38.
[20] ANG A H S,PIRES J A.A model for the seismic reliability assessment of electric-power transmission systems Reliability Engineering &system safety[J].1996,51(1):7-22.
[21] STEFAN E.Comparision of QRA and Vulnerability analysis:does analysis lead to more robust and resilient systems?Acta Polytechnica Scandinavica,Civil Engineering and Building Construction Series[J].1999,(114):1-27.
[22] RENNAKER P R , RICHARDSON S . New approach to vulnerability assessment[J].Journal of the American Helicoper Society.1999,44(1):38-41.
[23] HOPKINS R,RONALD M C,CHARLES N T.Operationally oriented vulnerability requirements in the ship design process[J].Naval Engineers Journal.1998,110(1):19-34.
[24] NDRE S M M.lobal sensitivity analyses of three pesticide leaching models using a Monte-Carlo approach[J].ournal of Environmental Quality.1999,28(4):1290-1297.
[25] SOUTTER M M A.Coupling 1D Monte-Carlo simulations and geostatistics to assess groundwater vulnerability to pesticide contamination on a regional scale[J].Journel of Contaminant Hydrology.1998,32(1-2):25-29.
[26]王经民,王有科.黄土高原生态环境脆弱性计算方法探讨[J].水土保持通报.1996(32):36-43
[27] WILLIANMSEN B J , HILARY E K . Quantifying and reducing International Space Station vulnerability following orbital debris penetration[J].Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets.1999,36(1):133-141.
[28] SAID M O.Theory and practice of total ship survivability for ship design[J] Naval Engineers Journal .1995,107(4):191-203.
[29] REESE R M C,CHARLES N H.Operationally oriented vulnerability requirements in the ship design process[J] . Naval Engineers Journal .1998,110(1):19-34.
[30] VASSALOS D,TURAN O,KONOVESSIS D,TUZCU C.Comparison between prescriptive and performance-based criteria for assessing ro-ro damage survivability International Shipbuilding Progress[J] . 1998 ,45(444):351-382.
[31] VASSALOS D,TURAN O,MACIEJ P.Dynamic stability assessment of damaged passenger/ro-ro ships and proposal of rational survival criteria Marine Technology .1997,34(4):241-266.
[32] HOLLAND J H.Escaping Brittleness:The possibilities of General Purpose Learning Algorithms Applied to Parallel Rule-Based Systems.In:Michals Ki R S,Carbonell J G,Mitchell T M(Eds),Machine LearningⅡ,Los Altos,CA:Morgan Kaufmann.1986:593-623.
[33] LIND N C.Measure of vulnerability and damage tolerance[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety.1995,48(1):1-6.
[34]韦琦.复杂系统脆性理论及其在危机控制中的应用[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2004.
[35]任鲁川.灾害熵:概念引入及应用案例[J].自然灾害学报.2000,9(2): 26-31.
[36]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.基于脆性熵的系统脆性研究[J].自动化技术与应用.2004年第9期:16-19.
[37]林康镛.关于熵概念的扩充问题[J].青岛建筑工程学院学报.1992,13(1): 73-77
[38]任叔良,赵克勤.集对分析在企业能源管理中的应用探讨[J].能源工程.1996,(3 ):21-23.
[39]赵克勤,宣爱理.集对论—一种新的不确定性理论、方法、应用[J].系统工程.1 996,(1):18-23.
[40]赵克勤.集对分析与熵的研究[J].浙江大学校报.1992(2):65-72.
[41]荣盘祥.复杂系统脆性及其理论框架的研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2006.
[42]荣盘祥,金鸿章,韦琦.基于元胞自动机的复杂系统脆性研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报.2006年第2期.
[43]吴红梅.复杂系统脆性理论在煤矿事故建模中的应用[D].哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文.2006.
[44] ZBIGNIEW S,STANISLAW S,SHINER J S.Complexity Principle of Extremality in Evolution of Living Organism by Information-theoretic Entropy[J].Chaos,Solitons and Fractals.2002,13:1871-1888.
[45] HE M X , RICCI P E . Information Entropy of Orthogonal Polynomials[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation .2002,128:261-274.
[46] RICCIARDIA G,ELISHAKO I.A Novel Local Stochastic Linearization Method Via Two extremum Entropy Principles[J].International Journal of Non-Linear Mechanics.2002,37:785-800.
[47]王正中.复杂系统仿真方法及应用[J].计算机仿真.2001,18(1):3-6.
[48] JAE C O.Promoting Cooperation Using‘kin’Biased Conditional Strategy in The Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma Game.Information Science.2001,133: 149-164.
[49] PAUL A S.Some Game Theory Anecdotes[M].Japan and the World Economy.2001,13:299-302.
[50] EIZO A,KANEKO K.Dynamical Systems Game Theory II,A New Approach to The Problem of The Social Dilemma[M].Physic D.2002,2891:1-36.
[51]叶民强,林峰.区域人口、资源与环境公平性问题的博弈分析[J].上海财经大学学报.2001,3(5):10-15.
[52] NASH J,贝兴亚译.非合作博弈[J].系统工程.1996,14(2):21-26.
[53] 2003年国有煤矿安全生产基本情况. http://www.Chinasafety.gov.cn/files.2004-08/16/.2004.9.16