煤炭物流运输网络风险评价及均衡保持关键问题研究
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摘要
随着煤炭主业的资源整合与煤炭产业国际性战略扩张,以及以煤炭为基础的煤化工、煤能转换产业链的建立,我国能源消费趋于紧张,而以煤炭为主体的能源消费结构在近十几年内将保持不变。随着煤炭物流运输网络的复杂化,煤炭物流运输不畅及系统风险越来越成为制约煤炭及运输产业结构调整与升级的“瓶颈”之一。因此,对煤炭物流运输网络的风险进行分析评价,并进行均衡保持研究具有重要的意义。
本文针对这一问题,将复杂系统理论、复杂网络理论、风险分析与评价方法、最优化理论和模糊数学等理论和方法应用到煤炭物流运输网络的风险控制问题的研究中,通过建立煤炭物流运输网络的风险评价指标体系、风险评价模型,对煤炭物流运输网络进行了风险评价,研究建立了基于复杂系统理论的煤炭物流运输网络均衡保持模型及算法设计,结合山西煤炭物流运输网络进行了实证分析,最后提出了煤炭物流运输网络的均衡保持策略,主要研究工作如下：
(1)在分析总结煤炭物流和物流网络的概念、范畴和特征的基础上,首次提出了煤炭物流运输网络的概念,对煤炭物流运输网络系统的体系框架、结构、类型和布局特征等进行了分析研究,并进一步对煤炭物流运输网络的复杂性进行了详细分析,明确了煤炭物流运输网络的复杂性特征和复杂性因素。
(2)从煤炭物流运输网络的结构、运输方式、系统协调性、管理政策以及供需关系的不平衡、外部环境和突发事件等方面,系统分析了影响煤炭物流运输网络风险的内外部因素。在此基础上,从网络抗毁性、网络可用性、可达性、运输网络适应度和网络承载能力等方面,建立了能够反映煤炭物流运输网络风险水平的评价指标体系。
(3)首次把基于最大熵的模糊风险评价模型、基于集对分析的风险评价模型和基于投影寻踪的风险评价模型应用到煤炭物流运输网络的风险评价中,并采用基于多判据决策的组合评价方法将这三种评价方法的结果进行综合,解决多种方法评价结果的不相容性。然后采用层次分析法确定风险评价指标的权重系数,并通过信息熵赋权法对确定的权系数进行修正,实现主观评价和客观反映的综合度量。最后以山西煤炭物流运输网络为例进行案例研究,验证了论文提出的风险评价模型和方法的有效性和可行性。
(4)对于由煤炭物流活动过程中相互联系的组织与设施在空间结构上的集合所构成的煤炭物流运输复杂网络系统,从网络拓扑、基础设施、作业主体和业务保障等四个方面分析了煤炭物流运输网络系统的均衡层次。接着,建立基于复杂网络的煤炭物流运输网络的静态均衡保持模型并对其特征进行了理论分析,在此基础上,进一步建立煤炭物流运输网络的动态复杂网络模型,分析该网络的动态行为及动力学性质,提出了煤炭物流运输网络的骨干网络、枢纽节点和联系枢纽节点的干线通道的选择与判断方法,并以山西煤炭物流运输网络进行实例分析,验证模型和方法的有效性和可行性。
(5)基于本文的主要理论研究结果,着重从煤炭物流运输网络系统的规划与再造、运作模式、信息共享和协作关系管理等四个方面对煤炭物流运输网络系统的均衡保持策略进行分析研究,提出了引导煤炭物流运输网络系统保持均衡和稳定的策略性的指导建议。
本文的研究工作有助于分析和降低煤炭物流运输网络系统的风险,提高煤炭物流运输网络运营的可靠性和稳定性,为煤炭物流运输网络的安全策略制定和安全运行提供科学依据,为构建我国现代物流体系,提高煤炭物流产业的市场竞争力、经济和社会效益具有十分重要的战略意义。
With the resource integration and international strategic expansion of coal industry and based on the building of coal and coal chemical industry, the conversion of coal and energy. We now have a nervous trend of energy consumption, However, the structure which coal as the main energy consumption will keep no change in recently years. With the complex of the coal transportation network, poor logistics and transport of coal and system risk have become one of the bottlenecks of industrial restructuring and upgrading the transport. Hence, there is a significance to make a analysis and evaluation to the transport network of coal logistics and the research of balanced to maintain.
According to this problem, we use complex system theory, complex network theory risk analysis and evaluation, optimization theory and fuzzy mathematics theory within the research of problem in controlling the risk of logistics and transport of coal. And we have made the risk and evaluation by modeling the risk index system of transport network of coal logistics, risk assessment model, and set up the model of balanced to maintain and the algorithm design based on the complex system theory of transport network of coal logistics, there is a empirical analysis is combined to the transport network of coal logistics of ShanXi province. And the research proposed the strategy of balanced to maintain of transport network of coal logistics. Following the research:
(1) The research proposed the concept of the transport network of coal logistics for the first time based on analyzing the conception, scope and characteristics of it. And the framework, structure, type and layout and complex of the transport network of coal logistics system have been analyzed. And the paper defined the complex of factors and characteristics of the transport network of coal logistics.
(2) The internal and external factors of the risk of transport network of coal logistics has been studied from the structure, transportation, system coordination, management policy, supply and demand imbalance, external environment and emergencies of the network. Then we modeled the evaluation system which can reflect the risk of the network based on network survivability, network availability, accessibility, fitness and carrying capacity.
(3)We made the risk assessment of transport network of coal logistics based on fuzzy risk assessment model of maximum entropy, set pair analysis and projection pursuit of assessment model. And we collected the result of the three reassessments to solve the incompatibility of the result based on the combination of multiple criteria decision-making evaluation. In order to reflect the subjective evaluation and objective to achieve a comprehensive measure which defined weight coefficient of the risk assessment by using AHP, corrected the weight coefficient. Then the paper proposed the effectiveness and feasibility of the measure and model risk assessment through the example of the transport network of coal logistics in ShanXi province.
(4) The transport network of coal logistics has been analyzed about equilibrium level of system from four respects such as network topology, infrastructure, operations and business to protect the main. And researching the balance to maintain of network systematic based on complex network theory and methods, especially the theory research on balanced features and stability of the network. It proposed alternative method that the backbone network of logistics and transport network of the coal hub nodes and hub nodes linked, then the paper improved the ways to keep the network equilibrium and stability. At last, the example of logistics and transport network of ShanXi province coal validated the method is effective and feasible.
(5) The paper focused on the Planning and recycling, operation, information sharing and collaborative relationship management of the net and analyzed the Maintaining a balanced strategy based on the paper's main theory and research result. And strategic guidance to be proposed can keep network balance and stably.
The research is very useful in analyzing and reducing the risk of transport network of coal logistics, enhancing the reliability and stability of the network in operation. It proposed the basis of security strategy development and safe operation for the logistics and the transport network of coal. And there is significance for construe the modern logistics system and advance the market competitiveness, economic and social benefits.
本文针对这一问题,将复杂系统理论、复杂网络理论、风险分析与评价方法、最优化理论和模糊数学等理论和方法应用到煤炭物流运输网络的风险控制问题的研究中,通过建立煤炭物流运输网络的风险评价指标体系、风险评价模型,对煤炭物流运输网络进行了风险评价,研究建立了基于复杂系统理论的煤炭物流运输网络均衡保持模型及算法设计,结合山西煤炭物流运输网络进行了实证分析,最后提出了煤炭物流运输网络的均衡保持策略,主要研究工作如下：
(1)在分析总结煤炭物流和物流网络的概念、范畴和特征的基础上,首次提出了煤炭物流运输网络的概念,对煤炭物流运输网络系统的体系框架、结构、类型和布局特征等进行了分析研究,并进一步对煤炭物流运输网络的复杂性进行了详细分析,明确了煤炭物流运输网络的复杂性特征和复杂性因素。
(2)从煤炭物流运输网络的结构、运输方式、系统协调性、管理政策以及供需关系的不平衡、外部环境和突发事件等方面,系统分析了影响煤炭物流运输网络风险的内外部因素。在此基础上,从网络抗毁性、网络可用性、可达性、运输网络适应度和网络承载能力等方面,建立了能够反映煤炭物流运输网络风险水平的评价指标体系。
(3)首次把基于最大熵的模糊风险评价模型、基于集对分析的风险评价模型和基于投影寻踪的风险评价模型应用到煤炭物流运输网络的风险评价中,并采用基于多判据决策的组合评价方法将这三种评价方法的结果进行综合,解决多种方法评价结果的不相容性。然后采用层次分析法确定风险评价指标的权重系数,并通过信息熵赋权法对确定的权系数进行修正,实现主观评价和客观反映的综合度量。最后以山西煤炭物流运输网络为例进行案例研究,验证了论文提出的风险评价模型和方法的有效性和可行性。
(4)对于由煤炭物流活动过程中相互联系的组织与设施在空间结构上的集合所构成的煤炭物流运输复杂网络系统,从网络拓扑、基础设施、作业主体和业务保障等四个方面分析了煤炭物流运输网络系统的均衡层次。接着,建立基于复杂网络的煤炭物流运输网络的静态均衡保持模型并对其特征进行了理论分析,在此基础上,进一步建立煤炭物流运输网络的动态复杂网络模型,分析该网络的动态行为及动力学性质,提出了煤炭物流运输网络的骨干网络、枢纽节点和联系枢纽节点的干线通道的选择与判断方法,并以山西煤炭物流运输网络进行实例分析,验证模型和方法的有效性和可行性。
(5)基于本文的主要理论研究结果,着重从煤炭物流运输网络系统的规划与再造、运作模式、信息共享和协作关系管理等四个方面对煤炭物流运输网络系统的均衡保持策略进行分析研究,提出了引导煤炭物流运输网络系统保持均衡和稳定的策略性的指导建议。
本文的研究工作有助于分析和降低煤炭物流运输网络系统的风险,提高煤炭物流运输网络运营的可靠性和稳定性,为煤炭物流运输网络的安全策略制定和安全运行提供科学依据,为构建我国现代物流体系,提高煤炭物流产业的市场竞争力、经济和社会效益具有十分重要的战略意义。
With the resource integration and international strategic expansion of coal industry and based on the building of coal and coal chemical industry, the conversion of coal and energy. We now have a nervous trend of energy consumption, However, the structure which coal as the main energy consumption will keep no change in recently years. With the complex of the coal transportation network, poor logistics and transport of coal and system risk have become one of the bottlenecks of industrial restructuring and upgrading the transport. Hence, there is a significance to make a analysis and evaluation to the transport network of coal logistics and the research of balanced to maintain.
According to this problem, we use complex system theory, complex network theory risk analysis and evaluation, optimization theory and fuzzy mathematics theory within the research of problem in controlling the risk of logistics and transport of coal. And we have made the risk and evaluation by modeling the risk index system of transport network of coal logistics, risk assessment model, and set up the model of balanced to maintain and the algorithm design based on the complex system theory of transport network of coal logistics, there is a empirical analysis is combined to the transport network of coal logistics of ShanXi province. And the research proposed the strategy of balanced to maintain of transport network of coal logistics. Following the research:
(1) The research proposed the concept of the transport network of coal logistics for the first time based on analyzing the conception, scope and characteristics of it. And the framework, structure, type and layout and complex of the transport network of coal logistics system have been analyzed. And the paper defined the complex of factors and characteristics of the transport network of coal logistics.
(2) The internal and external factors of the risk of transport network of coal logistics has been studied from the structure, transportation, system coordination, management policy, supply and demand imbalance, external environment and emergencies of the network. Then we modeled the evaluation system which can reflect the risk of the network based on network survivability, network availability, accessibility, fitness and carrying capacity.
(3)We made the risk assessment of transport network of coal logistics based on fuzzy risk assessment model of maximum entropy, set pair analysis and projection pursuit of assessment model. And we collected the result of the three reassessments to solve the incompatibility of the result based on the combination of multiple criteria decision-making evaluation. In order to reflect the subjective evaluation and objective to achieve a comprehensive measure which defined weight coefficient of the risk assessment by using AHP, corrected the weight coefficient. Then the paper proposed the effectiveness and feasibility of the measure and model risk assessment through the example of the transport network of coal logistics in ShanXi province.
(4) The transport network of coal logistics has been analyzed about equilibrium level of system from four respects such as network topology, infrastructure, operations and business to protect the main. And researching the balance to maintain of network systematic based on complex network theory and methods, especially the theory research on balanced features and stability of the network. It proposed alternative method that the backbone network of logistics and transport network of the coal hub nodes and hub nodes linked, then the paper improved the ways to keep the network equilibrium and stability. At last, the example of logistics and transport network of ShanXi province coal validated the method is effective and feasible.
(5) The paper focused on the Planning and recycling, operation, information sharing and collaborative relationship management of the net and analyzed the Maintaining a balanced strategy based on the paper's main theory and research result. And strategic guidance to be proposed can keep network balance and stably.
The research is very useful in analyzing and reducing the risk of transport network of coal logistics, enhancing the reliability and stability of the network in operation. It proposed the basis of security strategy development and safe operation for the logistics and the transport network of coal. And there is significance for construe the modern logistics system and advance the market competitiveness, economic and social benefits.
引文
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