房地产投资的风险评价方法研究
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摘要
中国房地产业是在改革开放后,随着城镇住房制度和土地使用制度改革的进展逐步复苏并活跃起来的。房地产业具有投资数额大、回收周期长、风险高、投资成败影响面大等特点,但我国大部分房地产公司对风险管理缺乏足够的认识,其风险管理机构均未成立,也没有配置专门的风险管理人员,更谈不上采用科学的风险识别和评价方法。为了规避风险、扩大收益,引进科学的方法事先对其投资风险进行客观、合理的分析与评价是完全必要的,这不仅有益于房地产行业的发展,也有益于整个国民经济的稳定运行。
本文首先对风险的概念、特征以及分类进行归纳总结,并介绍了房地产投资项目的风险以及风险分析的理论;然后从多个角度对房地产投资的风险因素进行具体分析,构建了房地产投资项目风险的评价指标体系。
同时,本文在对以往项目风险评价方法进行归纳总结的基础上,指出了常用的模糊层次分析法存在的缺陷,引进了基于Matlab软件的人工神经网络模型和灰色马尔可夫模型建立新的风险评价体系;并进一步利用模型求得的风险度,通过对当前净现值表达式的不足之处进行改良,提出了风险度净现值模型,利用该模型将灰色马尔可夫模型和人工神经网络模型贯穿起来,在房地产风险评价领域形成了全新的技术经济评价体系,有效地降低了风险评价中的不确定性成分,完善了房地产投资经济评价度量模型;最后通过实例应用对模型进行了验证,取得了满意效果。
房地产投资的风险评价是一个非常复杂的系统评价问题,本文顺应房地产投资风险管理的需要,着力于完善目前房地产投资项目的风险评价体系,提供一种提出问题、分析和解决问题的思路和框架,为决策者进行决策提供参考和借鉴,使其决策更为合理和科学。
After the reform and opening, the real estate industry has recovered and developed with the reform of the city housing and land using systems in China. Products and investments of the real estate have their peculiarity:The huge investment, the long payback period, the compound risks, and large extent of the influence of success or failure, etc. But in China a majority of Real Estate Investment Company lack sufficient knowledge in risk management. They not possess the risk management department, and also not configure special risk supervisor, to say nothing of scientific means in risk evaluation and risk analysis. In order to lower the level of risk and enlarge the profit, it is absolutely necessary that objective and reasonable analysis and evaluation of the risk be made and corresponding measures be taken by the investors. These will be of great benefit to the development of the real estate, but also to the stable of national economic situation.
First, the conception, characteristic and classification of risk are summed up, the risk of the real estate investment project and the theory of risk analysis are introduced and the function of risk evaluation is pointed out; secondly, risk factors are analyzed particularly from the perspective of the system and the source of risk, the direct action body of risk, the influence of goal which made by the risk and the process of project management separately, then this paper sets up a risk estimate index system of real estate development project.
Based on the summary of previous evaluation methods, this paper point out the shortcoming of The Analytical Hierarchy Process in risk evaluation, then introduces new techniques and models such as the Gray Prediction Model and the Artificial Neural Network Model which based on the Matlab software. A new risk estimate system is established in the paper and applied to the practice. Breakeven Point and Sensitivity analysis were revised to make the risk evaluation properly and scientifically. On the basis of the analysis of shortcomings that lie in the previous express formula of the Net Present Value, another kind of express formula, that is to say, the Model of the Net Present Value about Risk Degree, is put forward and the process of answering is explained particularly. At last, a new risk measurement model that considers the investor's risk degree is brought forward. These models are applied to the real case of a real estate project to evaluate its risk level and satisfactory result is made.
The risk evaluation of the real estate investment project is a very complex system evaluation. The paper puts merely forth effort to provide a kind of thinking and frame to analyze and solve this kind of problem and provides reference for the administrator to make the decision more reasonable and scientific.
本文首先对风险的概念、特征以及分类进行归纳总结,并介绍了房地产投资项目的风险以及风险分析的理论;然后从多个角度对房地产投资的风险因素进行具体分析,构建了房地产投资项目风险的评价指标体系。
同时,本文在对以往项目风险评价方法进行归纳总结的基础上,指出了常用的模糊层次分析法存在的缺陷,引进了基于Matlab软件的人工神经网络模型和灰色马尔可夫模型建立新的风险评价体系;并进一步利用模型求得的风险度,通过对当前净现值表达式的不足之处进行改良,提出了风险度净现值模型,利用该模型将灰色马尔可夫模型和人工神经网络模型贯穿起来,在房地产风险评价领域形成了全新的技术经济评价体系,有效地降低了风险评价中的不确定性成分,完善了房地产投资经济评价度量模型;最后通过实例应用对模型进行了验证,取得了满意效果。
房地产投资的风险评价是一个非常复杂的系统评价问题,本文顺应房地产投资风险管理的需要,着力于完善目前房地产投资项目的风险评价体系,提供一种提出问题、分析和解决问题的思路和框架,为决策者进行决策提供参考和借鉴,使其决策更为合理和科学。
After the reform and opening, the real estate industry has recovered and developed with the reform of the city housing and land using systems in China. Products and investments of the real estate have their peculiarity:The huge investment, the long payback period, the compound risks, and large extent of the influence of success or failure, etc. But in China a majority of Real Estate Investment Company lack sufficient knowledge in risk management. They not possess the risk management department, and also not configure special risk supervisor, to say nothing of scientific means in risk evaluation and risk analysis. In order to lower the level of risk and enlarge the profit, it is absolutely necessary that objective and reasonable analysis and evaluation of the risk be made and corresponding measures be taken by the investors. These will be of great benefit to the development of the real estate, but also to the stable of national economic situation.
First, the conception, characteristic and classification of risk are summed up, the risk of the real estate investment project and the theory of risk analysis are introduced and the function of risk evaluation is pointed out; secondly, risk factors are analyzed particularly from the perspective of the system and the source of risk, the direct action body of risk, the influence of goal which made by the risk and the process of project management separately, then this paper sets up a risk estimate index system of real estate development project.
Based on the summary of previous evaluation methods, this paper point out the shortcoming of The Analytical Hierarchy Process in risk evaluation, then introduces new techniques and models such as the Gray Prediction Model and the Artificial Neural Network Model which based on the Matlab software. A new risk estimate system is established in the paper and applied to the practice. Breakeven Point and Sensitivity analysis were revised to make the risk evaluation properly and scientifically. On the basis of the analysis of shortcomings that lie in the previous express formula of the Net Present Value, another kind of express formula, that is to say, the Model of the Net Present Value about Risk Degree, is put forward and the process of answering is explained particularly. At last, a new risk measurement model that considers the investor's risk degree is brought forward. These models are applied to the real case of a real estate project to evaluate its risk level and satisfactory result is made.
The risk evaluation of the real estate investment project is a very complex system evaluation. The paper puts merely forth effort to provide a kind of thinking and frame to analyze and solve this kind of problem and provides reference for the administrator to make the decision more reasonable and scientific.
引文
[1] 郑京平等.1997~2005 年中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2005
[2] 桂永评.投资风险[M].上海:立信会计出版社,2004
[3] 蒸发 4 万亿泡沫 香港地产回归真实 http://www.nen.com.cn 2003-11-16
[4] 中国住宅与房地产信息网 http://www.realestate.gov.cn/ .2005-9-20
[5] H Felix HIoman. Risk Management Milestones:1900 to 1999[EB/OL]. http://www.irmi.com/Expert/Articles/2001/Kloman03.aspx,1999-12.
[6] 深房集团编.房地产投资分析[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1997: 20-130
[7] 许国栋,李心丹.风险管理理论综述与发展[J]. 北方经贸,2001,9:40-41
[8] 克里斯蒂安·戈利耶.风险和时间经济学[M]. 中信出版社,2003/5
[9] Wurkzebach. Modern Real Estate[M]. John Wiley & Sons, 1991:1273
[10] Gaylon.e.Greer. Investment Analysis For Real Estate Decisions. Prentice Hall, 1999:1-145
[11] Roger P. Sindt. Real Estate Investment Analysis and Applications. Prentice Hall, 1998:1-281
[12] Peter Jovanovic. Application of sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation under uncertainty and risk. International Journal of Project management. Vol.17,No.4,1999:217-222
[13] David Spaulding. Measuring Investment Performance Calculating and Evaluating Investment Risk and Return. New York, MC-Hill, 1997
[14] John C, Steed. Engineering project risk management. ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT JOURNAL, 2002, (2):43-44
[15] 陈立文.项目投资风险分析理论与方法.[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2004
[16] 王亚民、朱荣林. 风险投资项目 ecv 评估指标与决策模型研究[J].风险投资. 2002/6
[17] 夏清泉、凌婕. 风险投资理论和政策研究[J]. 国际商务研究. 2002/5
[18] (美) 斯蒂芬·A.罗斯等.公司理财[M].北京.机械工业出版社,2003:446-532
[19] 邓聚龙. 灰理论基础[M].湖北.华中科技大学出版社,2002
[20] 邓聚龙. 灰色控制系统[M].湖北.华中理工大学出版社,1985
[21] 飞思科技产品研发中心.神经网络理论与 Matlab7 实现[M].北京.电子工业出版社,2005
[22] 董长虹.Matlab 神经网络理论与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005
[23] 闻新.神经网络应用与设计[M].北京:科学出版社,2003
[24] 闻新等.MATLAB 神经网络仿真与应用[M].北京.科学出版社,2003
[25] 李玉琦.投资项目风险分析.石油规划设计[J],1998, (6) :16～18
[26] Megill R E. Risk Analysis. Tulsa: Petroleum Publishing Company, 1977.202～212
[27] Henley E J, Hiromitsu Kumamoto. Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall Inc, 1981.16～38
[28] 陈立文,李家连.项目投资风险分析及防范综述[J].工业技术经济,1998, (1) :105～106
[29] 田德录,卢凤君.风险管理要素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,1998, (6) :6～10
[30] 王维才,戴淑芬,肖玉新.投资项目可行性分析与项目管理[M].冶金工业出版社,2000;101-104
[31] 沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2004;8-10
[32] 李盅富等.现代住宅管理[M]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002
[33] 邱广振,徐木陇.工程项目风险控制动态分析[J].沈阳建筑工程学院学报,1998, (2) :114～117
[34] 尹贻林,陈通,杨杉.我国项目风险管理的发展趋势[J].中国软科学,1995, (10) :81~84
[35] 徐念榕,鞠茂森.房地产开发项目的风险及其辨识、估计和评价[J].苏州城建环保学院学报,1996, 9(3) : 79~82
[36] 张建设,钟登华.一种工程项目风险因素识别新方法—表上作业方法[J].洛阳大学学报,2000, (4) :69-72
[37] 刘众.投资项目风险估测和风险分析.建筑管理现代化[J],2002, (1) :56-58
[38] 张一帆,徐遂.投资风险分析研究方法概述[J].技术经济与管理研究,2002, (4) :57-58
[39] 李启明.房地产投资风险与决策[M].东南大学出版社.1998
[40] 赵世强. 房地产开发风险管理[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2002
[41] David Spaulding. Measuring Investment Performance Caculating and Evaluating Investment Risk and Return[M]. New York,MC-Hill, 1997
[42] 张文泉.电力技术经济评价理论、方法与应用[M].中国电力出版社.2004
[43] 刘思峰等.灰色系统理论及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2000
[44] 黄卫忠.证券投资风险预测与控制[D].内蒙古:内蒙古工业大学,2005:46~58
[45] 王巍.房地产开发项目风险评价[D].内蒙古:内蒙古工业大学,2005:45~48
[46] 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].华中科技大学出版社.2000
[47] 阎平凡,张长水.人工神经网络与模拟进化计算[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000, 17～27
[48] 刘增良.模糊逻辑与神经网络:理论研究与探索[M].北京:北京航空航大大学出版社,1996. 113～126
[49] Munholland B, Christian J. Risk assessment in construction schedules[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1999, 125(1)
[50] 卢有杰、卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998
[51] 虞和锡.工程经济学.中国计划出版社[M].2002
[2] 桂永评.投资风险[M].上海:立信会计出版社,2004
[3] 蒸发 4 万亿泡沫 香港地产回归真实 http://www.nen.com.cn 2003-11-16
[4] 中国住宅与房地产信息网 http://www.realestate.gov.cn/ .2005-9-20
[5] H Felix HIoman. Risk Management Milestones:1900 to 1999[EB/OL]. http://www.irmi.com/Expert/Articles/2001/Kloman03.aspx,1999-12.
[6] 深房集团编.房地产投资分析[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1997: 20-130
[7] 许国栋,李心丹.风险管理理论综述与发展[J]. 北方经贸,2001,9:40-41
[8] 克里斯蒂安·戈利耶.风险和时间经济学[M]. 中信出版社,2003/5
[9] Wurkzebach. Modern Real Estate[M]. John Wiley & Sons, 1991:1273
[10] Gaylon.e.Greer. Investment Analysis For Real Estate Decisions. Prentice Hall, 1999:1-145
[11] Roger P. Sindt. Real Estate Investment Analysis and Applications. Prentice Hall, 1998:1-281
[12] Peter Jovanovic. Application of sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation under uncertainty and risk. International Journal of Project management. Vol.17,No.4,1999:217-222
[13] David Spaulding. Measuring Investment Performance Calculating and Evaluating Investment Risk and Return. New York, MC-Hill, 1997
[14] John C, Steed. Engineering project risk management. ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT JOURNAL, 2002, (2):43-44
[15] 陈立文.项目投资风险分析理论与方法.[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2004
[16] 王亚民、朱荣林. 风险投资项目 ecv 评估指标与决策模型研究[J].风险投资. 2002/6
[17] 夏清泉、凌婕. 风险投资理论和政策研究[J]. 国际商务研究. 2002/5
[18] (美) 斯蒂芬·A.罗斯等.公司理财[M].北京.机械工业出版社,2003:446-532
[19] 邓聚龙. 灰理论基础[M].湖北.华中科技大学出版社,2002
[20] 邓聚龙. 灰色控制系统[M].湖北.华中理工大学出版社,1985
[21] 飞思科技产品研发中心.神经网络理论与 Matlab7 实现[M].北京.电子工业出版社,2005
[22] 董长虹.Matlab 神经网络理论与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005
[23] 闻新.神经网络应用与设计[M].北京:科学出版社,2003
[24] 闻新等.MATLAB 神经网络仿真与应用[M].北京.科学出版社,2003
[25] 李玉琦.投资项目风险分析.石油规划设计[J],1998, (6) :16～18
[26] Megill R E. Risk Analysis. Tulsa: Petroleum Publishing Company, 1977.202～212
[27] Henley E J, Hiromitsu Kumamoto. Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall Inc, 1981.16～38
[28] 陈立文,李家连.项目投资风险分析及防范综述[J].工业技术经济,1998, (1) :105～106
[29] 田德录,卢凤君.风险管理要素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,1998, (6) :6～10
[30] 王维才,戴淑芬,肖玉新.投资项目可行性分析与项目管理[M].冶金工业出版社,2000;101-104
[31] 沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2004;8-10
[32] 李盅富等.现代住宅管理[M]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002
[33] 邱广振,徐木陇.工程项目风险控制动态分析[J].沈阳建筑工程学院学报,1998, (2) :114～117
[34] 尹贻林,陈通,杨杉.我国项目风险管理的发展趋势[J].中国软科学,1995, (10) :81~84
[35] 徐念榕,鞠茂森.房地产开发项目的风险及其辨识、估计和评价[J].苏州城建环保学院学报,1996, 9(3) : 79~82
[36] 张建设,钟登华.一种工程项目风险因素识别新方法—表上作业方法[J].洛阳大学学报,2000, (4) :69-72
[37] 刘众.投资项目风险估测和风险分析.建筑管理现代化[J],2002, (1) :56-58
[38] 张一帆,徐遂.投资风险分析研究方法概述[J].技术经济与管理研究,2002, (4) :57-58
[39] 李启明.房地产投资风险与决策[M].东南大学出版社.1998
[40] 赵世强. 房地产开发风险管理[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2002
[41] David Spaulding. Measuring Investment Performance Caculating and Evaluating Investment Risk and Return[M]. New York,MC-Hill, 1997
[42] 张文泉.电力技术经济评价理论、方法与应用[M].中国电力出版社.2004
[43] 刘思峰等.灰色系统理论及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2000
[44] 黄卫忠.证券投资风险预测与控制[D].内蒙古:内蒙古工业大学,2005:46~58
[45] 王巍.房地产开发项目风险评价[D].内蒙古:内蒙古工业大学,2005:45~48
[46] 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].华中科技大学出版社.2000
[47] 阎平凡,张长水.人工神经网络与模拟进化计算[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000, 17～27
[48] 刘增良.模糊逻辑与神经网络:理论研究与探索[M].北京:北京航空航大大学出版社,1996. 113～126
[49] Munholland B, Christian J. Risk assessment in construction schedules[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1999, 125(1)
[50] 卢有杰、卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998
[51] 虞和锡.工程经济学.中国计划出版社[M].2002