开放经济条件下我国汇率政策与货币政策协调研究
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摘要
内外均衡之间的冲突始终是开放经济面临的重大课题。为实现经济的合理开放,就必须对本国与外界的经济交往进行适当地管理与协调。1994年以来,随着我国市场机制的建立和对外开放程度的不断加深,汇率、国际收支同国内的经济运行之间的联系日益密切,汇率政策(主要作用于外部均衡)与货币政策(主要作用于内部均衡)在共同维护内外均衡方面作用越大越大,同时两者的冲突也不断涌现。至今大至发生了以下三次较大的冲突：第一次冲突发生在1994年至1996年,主要表现为抑制通胀的货币政策与抑制人民币升值的汇率政策之间的冲突；第二次冲突发生在1998-2000年,主要表现为稳健的货币政策目标与抑制人民币贬值的汇率政策之间的冲突；第三次冲突发生在2001年以来至2008年上半年,主要表现为控制通货膨胀货币政策和维护汇率稳定的汇率政策之间的冲突。
本文的研究从货币政策与汇率政策之间的内在联系与作用机制入手,按时序分析我国货币政策与汇率政策冲突的历史演变的基础上,通过对两者冲突的表象描述,将我国汇率政策与货币政策冲突的机理与主要原因归纳总结为：稳定汇率水平与货币供应量目标之间的内在矛盾；我国利率—汇率联动机制的失灵；资本管制的失效等几个方面。
作为一项调节汇率水平与货币供给,实现双重稳定的特殊工具,外汇冲销干预已成为很多国家实现内外均衡的重要政策选择。从我国现行的协调汇率政策与货币政策冲突的实践来看,这种带有外汇缓冲性质的外汇冲销干预也成为我国货币当局所采用的最主要的手段。为了证明我国使用冲销干预手段协调冲突的有效性,本文通过建立中央银行反应函数和估计冲销系数,实证分析了1994年到2008年间央行在面临国际收支双顺差的情况下,实施冲销干预政策对货币政策、货币供给的影响。得出的结论是：我国央行在外汇市场持续购入外汇进行外汇干预的同时,利用再贷款、再贴现、调整准备金率以及公开市场操作等手段有效地冲销了为稳定汇率水平而被动增加的货币供给,在一定程度上协调了汇率政策与货币政策之间的冲突。该问题的另一个关键在于,这种冲销协调能够持续吗?本文借鉴日本学者Ito(2002)的研究方法,估算了我国1994年以来的我国货币当局外汇冲销干预的损益,冲销干预措施的确给央行带来不小的冲销干预成本。但本文通过对外汇冲销干预的产生的宏观效应的计量分析认为,央行的冲销干预措施在降低微观经济主体的汇率风险、保持人民币汇率相对稳定,抑制通货膨胀、维持我国出口竞争力,保证就业等方面发挥了重要作用。因而本文提出,我国货币当局的冲销干预作为一项稳定金融市场与协调内外冲突的宏观操控工具,其可维持性应主要以其宏观经济绩效为出发点,而非将自身的直接损益作为政策操作的判别标准。从这个意义上说,我国的冲销干预具有一定的可持续性,也可以部分地解释我国货币当局青睐于外汇冲销干预手段的动因。当然,这一切均以当前外汇管制条件与外部宏观环境不变为前提,随着市场化的推进与有利于大规模冲销的制度因素的削弱,我们目前所采用的种种冲销干预工具的可维持性即会愈发脆弱。
基于此,本文认为,通过外汇冲销干预只是一项短期与过渡性措施,它在有效缓和货币政策与汇率政策之间冲突的同时,也付出了高昂的冲销成本,付出了推迟市场化改革的步伐和外部失衡问题的解决等代价。比对我国汇率政策与货币政策发生冲突的原因,在长期内改革我国的汇率形成机制,使之走向浮动汇率制才是有效化解冲突的必然选择。本文在同时考虑冲销因素的前提下,建立了一个基于央行损失最小化的汇率制度选择的理论模型,模型结论认为,随着资本开放程度的加深(此时冲销干预条件减弱),保持独立货币政策将要求汇率制度走向浮动。本文还设计了我国退出单一盯住汇率制,走向有管理的浮动汇率制的渐进变迁步骤和路径,以及讨论了在渐进变迁过程中应注意的主要政策配合。
最后,在简要总结全文结论的基础上,本文提出,协调汇率政策与货币政策的冲突短期调控与长期机制改革并举,同步推进,相得益彰。应继续通过改革外汇储备管理政策、发展外汇市场业务与公开市场操作、建立外汇平准基金等进一步完善冲销干预工具与方式。另外,建立利率与汇率的联动机制也是协调冲突的有效方法。
The equilibrium conflict between inside and outside is the important issue which the open economy faces. In order to realize the economy reasonable opening, the economy inside and outside should be carried on the management and the coordination. Since 1994, along with our country market mechanism establishment and opening to the outside world degree deepening, the exchange rate, the international payment balance are day by day close with the domestic economical movement, the exchange rate policy (main function in exterior equilibrium) and the monetary policy (main function in interior equilibrium) play more and more roles in maintaining equilibrium, but the conflicts is also increasing.By now, there are three bigger conflicts:the first conflict is suppression bloating monetary policy and suppression Renminbi revaluation exchange rate policy from 1994 to 1996; The second conflict is steady monetary policy goal and suppression Renminbi depreciation exchange rate policy from 1998 to 2000; the third conflict tis the control inflation monetary policy and maintenance stabilization of exchange rate exchange rate policy from 2001 to 2008. The frequent conflict causes the method more complex, when our country carrys on the macroscopic economical regulation, the regulative policy display space receives limits and often falls into the policy predicament in a dilemma. Therefore, it is becoming an unavoidable issue for the authority to fundamentally carry on coordination between the exchange rate policy and the monetary policy conflict.
This study from the inner link and function mechanism between monetary policy and the exchange rate policy, according to the succession,analyzes history evolution of our country monetary policy and the exchange rate policy conflict, through representation description, the main reasons of our country exchange rate policy and the monetary policy conflict mechanism will be summarized as the following:inherent contradictions between stable exchange rate level and money supply goal; Our country interest rate - exchange rate linkage mechanism malfunction; Capital control expiration etc.,.
As one special tool regulating exchange rate and currency supply and realizing double steady, the sterilized intervention has become an important policy choice to realize internal-external equilibrium. From the practice of the conflict between Current coordination exchange rate policy and monetary policy, the sterilized intervention with the foreign currency buffers properties became the main means of the monetary authorities adopted by our country too. In order to prove the validity that our country made use of sterilized intervention to coordinate the conflicts, through setting up the reaction function of Central Bank and the estimating coefficient of sterilization, the thesis analyzed the effects of sterilized intervention on monetary policy monetary supply from 1994-2008. The conclusions are that Central Bank by means of effective ways such as rediscount, re-lend etc, sterilized the currency increased passively for stabilizing the exchange rate while carrying out sterilized intervention, which has coordinated the conflict to a certain extent between the exchange rate policy and monetary policy. Another key problem is whether the sterilized intervention can continue.
This text based on the scholar of Japanese Ito's (2002), estimated the increase and decrease intervened since 1994. The sterilized intervention really brought big intervening cost to Central Bank.. The author by the measurement analysis of the macroscopical effect thought sterilized intervention has played an important role in reducing the exchange rate risk of the microeconomy subject, keeping the exchange rate of RMB relatively stable, inhibiting the inflation, keeping our country's exporting the competitiveness. Therefore the author proposed that the sterilized intervention should be regarded as macroscopic control tools keeping the stability of financial market and coordinating the conflicts inside and outside, but not regarding own direct increase and decrease as the discrimination standard that the policy is operated. From the point of view, the sterilized intervention is very constant and can also explain the reasons of our country monetary authorities favor on foreign currency sterilized intervention partly. Of course, all these do exist under the condition of the present exchange control condition and macroscopical environment of outside unchangeable. With the weakening of market-based promotion and system factor helping to the sterilized intervention on a large scale, the tool of sterilized intervention will be more and more fragile.
The sterilized intervention is just one short and transitional measure, which has effectively relaxed the conflict of monetary policy and exchange rate at the time and paid high cost, such as delaying the paces of market-based reform and settlement of out-of-balance problem of outside. Looking back conflicting with monetary policy to our country's exchange rate policy, It is an inevitable choice to reform exchange rate forming mechanism of our country in long-term and to make it floating exchange rate to dissolve of conflict effectively. On the premise of considering the sterilized factor at the same time, the thesis established a theory model of exchange rate system choice based on the minimize losses of Central Bank. The conclusions are that with the intensification of the degree of opening of the capital, keeping the independent monetary policy required the system of exchange rate to move towards floating. I have also designed our country to withdraw from a close watch on exchange rate system singly, move towards the floating exchange rate of management, and have discussed the major match policy that should be noticed in changes.
Finally, on the brief foundation of summarizing the conclusion of the full text, the author put forward that short-term regulation and control and long-term mechanism's reform of coordinating exchange policy and monetary policy should be simultaneously moved forward in step and bring out the best in each other. We should continue reforming the management policy of the foreign exchange reserve, developing business of foreign exchange market and disclosing the market operation, developing the ways to improve the sterilized intervention. In addition, it is the effective method to coordinate conflict to establish the linkage mechanism between interest rate and exchange rate.
本文的研究从货币政策与汇率政策之间的内在联系与作用机制入手,按时序分析我国货币政策与汇率政策冲突的历史演变的基础上,通过对两者冲突的表象描述,将我国汇率政策与货币政策冲突的机理与主要原因归纳总结为：稳定汇率水平与货币供应量目标之间的内在矛盾；我国利率—汇率联动机制的失灵；资本管制的失效等几个方面。
作为一项调节汇率水平与货币供给,实现双重稳定的特殊工具,外汇冲销干预已成为很多国家实现内外均衡的重要政策选择。从我国现行的协调汇率政策与货币政策冲突的实践来看,这种带有外汇缓冲性质的外汇冲销干预也成为我国货币当局所采用的最主要的手段。为了证明我国使用冲销干预手段协调冲突的有效性,本文通过建立中央银行反应函数和估计冲销系数,实证分析了1994年到2008年间央行在面临国际收支双顺差的情况下,实施冲销干预政策对货币政策、货币供给的影响。得出的结论是：我国央行在外汇市场持续购入外汇进行外汇干预的同时,利用再贷款、再贴现、调整准备金率以及公开市场操作等手段有效地冲销了为稳定汇率水平而被动增加的货币供给,在一定程度上协调了汇率政策与货币政策之间的冲突。该问题的另一个关键在于,这种冲销协调能够持续吗?本文借鉴日本学者Ito(2002)的研究方法,估算了我国1994年以来的我国货币当局外汇冲销干预的损益,冲销干预措施的确给央行带来不小的冲销干预成本。但本文通过对外汇冲销干预的产生的宏观效应的计量分析认为,央行的冲销干预措施在降低微观经济主体的汇率风险、保持人民币汇率相对稳定,抑制通货膨胀、维持我国出口竞争力,保证就业等方面发挥了重要作用。因而本文提出,我国货币当局的冲销干预作为一项稳定金融市场与协调内外冲突的宏观操控工具,其可维持性应主要以其宏观经济绩效为出发点,而非将自身的直接损益作为政策操作的判别标准。从这个意义上说,我国的冲销干预具有一定的可持续性,也可以部分地解释我国货币当局青睐于外汇冲销干预手段的动因。当然,这一切均以当前外汇管制条件与外部宏观环境不变为前提,随着市场化的推进与有利于大规模冲销的制度因素的削弱,我们目前所采用的种种冲销干预工具的可维持性即会愈发脆弱。
基于此,本文认为,通过外汇冲销干预只是一项短期与过渡性措施,它在有效缓和货币政策与汇率政策之间冲突的同时,也付出了高昂的冲销成本,付出了推迟市场化改革的步伐和外部失衡问题的解决等代价。比对我国汇率政策与货币政策发生冲突的原因,在长期内改革我国的汇率形成机制,使之走向浮动汇率制才是有效化解冲突的必然选择。本文在同时考虑冲销因素的前提下,建立了一个基于央行损失最小化的汇率制度选择的理论模型,模型结论认为,随着资本开放程度的加深(此时冲销干预条件减弱),保持独立货币政策将要求汇率制度走向浮动。本文还设计了我国退出单一盯住汇率制,走向有管理的浮动汇率制的渐进变迁步骤和路径,以及讨论了在渐进变迁过程中应注意的主要政策配合。
最后,在简要总结全文结论的基础上,本文提出,协调汇率政策与货币政策的冲突短期调控与长期机制改革并举,同步推进,相得益彰。应继续通过改革外汇储备管理政策、发展外汇市场业务与公开市场操作、建立外汇平准基金等进一步完善冲销干预工具与方式。另外,建立利率与汇率的联动机制也是协调冲突的有效方法。
The equilibrium conflict between inside and outside is the important issue which the open economy faces. In order to realize the economy reasonable opening, the economy inside and outside should be carried on the management and the coordination. Since 1994, along with our country market mechanism establishment and opening to the outside world degree deepening, the exchange rate, the international payment balance are day by day close with the domestic economical movement, the exchange rate policy (main function in exterior equilibrium) and the monetary policy (main function in interior equilibrium) play more and more roles in maintaining equilibrium, but the conflicts is also increasing.By now, there are three bigger conflicts:the first conflict is suppression bloating monetary policy and suppression Renminbi revaluation exchange rate policy from 1994 to 1996; The second conflict is steady monetary policy goal and suppression Renminbi depreciation exchange rate policy from 1998 to 2000; the third conflict tis the control inflation monetary policy and maintenance stabilization of exchange rate exchange rate policy from 2001 to 2008. The frequent conflict causes the method more complex, when our country carrys on the macroscopic economical regulation, the regulative policy display space receives limits and often falls into the policy predicament in a dilemma. Therefore, it is becoming an unavoidable issue for the authority to fundamentally carry on coordination between the exchange rate policy and the monetary policy conflict.
This study from the inner link and function mechanism between monetary policy and the exchange rate policy, according to the succession,analyzes history evolution of our country monetary policy and the exchange rate policy conflict, through representation description, the main reasons of our country exchange rate policy and the monetary policy conflict mechanism will be summarized as the following:inherent contradictions between stable exchange rate level and money supply goal; Our country interest rate - exchange rate linkage mechanism malfunction; Capital control expiration etc.,.
As one special tool regulating exchange rate and currency supply and realizing double steady, the sterilized intervention has become an important policy choice to realize internal-external equilibrium. From the practice of the conflict between Current coordination exchange rate policy and monetary policy, the sterilized intervention with the foreign currency buffers properties became the main means of the monetary authorities adopted by our country too. In order to prove the validity that our country made use of sterilized intervention to coordinate the conflicts, through setting up the reaction function of Central Bank and the estimating coefficient of sterilization, the thesis analyzed the effects of sterilized intervention on monetary policy monetary supply from 1994-2008. The conclusions are that Central Bank by means of effective ways such as rediscount, re-lend etc, sterilized the currency increased passively for stabilizing the exchange rate while carrying out sterilized intervention, which has coordinated the conflict to a certain extent between the exchange rate policy and monetary policy. Another key problem is whether the sterilized intervention can continue.
This text based on the scholar of Japanese Ito's (2002), estimated the increase and decrease intervened since 1994. The sterilized intervention really brought big intervening cost to Central Bank.. The author by the measurement analysis of the macroscopical effect thought sterilized intervention has played an important role in reducing the exchange rate risk of the microeconomy subject, keeping the exchange rate of RMB relatively stable, inhibiting the inflation, keeping our country's exporting the competitiveness. Therefore the author proposed that the sterilized intervention should be regarded as macroscopic control tools keeping the stability of financial market and coordinating the conflicts inside and outside, but not regarding own direct increase and decrease as the discrimination standard that the policy is operated. From the point of view, the sterilized intervention is very constant and can also explain the reasons of our country monetary authorities favor on foreign currency sterilized intervention partly. Of course, all these do exist under the condition of the present exchange control condition and macroscopical environment of outside unchangeable. With the weakening of market-based promotion and system factor helping to the sterilized intervention on a large scale, the tool of sterilized intervention will be more and more fragile.
The sterilized intervention is just one short and transitional measure, which has effectively relaxed the conflict of monetary policy and exchange rate at the time and paid high cost, such as delaying the paces of market-based reform and settlement of out-of-balance problem of outside. Looking back conflicting with monetary policy to our country's exchange rate policy, It is an inevitable choice to reform exchange rate forming mechanism of our country in long-term and to make it floating exchange rate to dissolve of conflict effectively. On the premise of considering the sterilized factor at the same time, the thesis established a theory model of exchange rate system choice based on the minimize losses of Central Bank. The conclusions are that with the intensification of the degree of opening of the capital, keeping the independent monetary policy required the system of exchange rate to move towards floating. I have also designed our country to withdraw from a close watch on exchange rate system singly, move towards the floating exchange rate of management, and have discussed the major match policy that should be noticed in changes.
Finally, on the brief foundation of summarizing the conclusion of the full text, the author put forward that short-term regulation and control and long-term mechanism's reform of coordinating exchange policy and monetary policy should be simultaneously moved forward in step and bring out the best in each other. We should continue reforming the management policy of the foreign exchange reserve, developing business of foreign exchange market and disclosing the market operation, developing the ways to improve the sterilized intervention. In addition, it is the effective method to coordinate conflict to establish the linkage mechanism between interest rate and exchange rate.
引文
1该部分内容介绍参阅了姜波克著的《国际金融新编》第三版,复旦大学出版社,2001
2何乐年,《货币银行学》西南财经大学出版社,1998
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