货币流动性、资产价格与货币政策选择
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摘要
资产价格的大幅波动通常与经济增长率起伏相吻合，也伴随着货币流动性充裕和不足之间的转换。资产价格的巨幅波动和货币流动性变化的一致性，显然不是精心准备的巧合，资产价格和货币流动性之间存在着密切关系。不论在发达国家还是发展中国家，资产价格波动均成为影响宏观经济波动的重要因素之一，对政策制定者（特别是中央银行）提出了新的要求和挑战。政策当局在考虑如何应对资产价格波动这一问题时，常常处于两难境地：一方面，害怕政策的调整会刺穿泡沫，造成像日本那样的经济衰退；另一方面，则担心继续维持已有政策会使泡沫激增，给经济造成更大隐患，当前我国的房地产市场情况即是一个明证。如果存在着非基本面因素导致的资产价格波动，而该资产价格波动又对实体经济产生了显著影响，政策当局就必须对资产价格波动做出反应。但政策当局在将资产价格作为自己关注的目标时要格外谨慎，设计不好或实施不当的政策（即使目的良好）有时会推动资产价格出现不可持续的变化。资产价格对利率非常敏感，所以资产价格是货币政策传导到实体经济的一个重要渠道，资产价格波动导致的实体经济变化对央行的物价稳定、金融稳定等目标构成了挑战，容易引发中央银行的目标冲突与政策困境，但如果传导渠道受到干扰，则政策的可靠性和有效性会降低。另外，不同的政策选择对整个经济的福利影响也有所不同。因此，政策制定者面对资产价格波动时如何行动，也是一个急需解决的议题。
本文的主要目的是研究流动性冲击、资产价格波动和央行政策选择之间的相互关系，找到央行应对资产价格波动的最佳策略。为此，本文将上述问题分以下几个层次依次展开：首先对近年来中国流动性状况的特征进行总结和分析，发现中国的流动性过剩现象明显，而造成这种流动性状况的原因主要来自内部和外部两个方面，内部方面的原因有家庭部门的高储蓄率、银行体系的资产扩张和政策扰动，外部方面的原因则是贸易顺差和外商直接投资持续积累导致的双顺差，中国特殊的外汇管理体制强化了双顺差的影响；接着文章分析流动性冲击与资产价格的关系，为更全面细致地考察两者的作用机制，在考虑流动性冲击时不仅包括国内流动性状况的变化还将G-7国家的流动性变化纳入一起进行分析，实证结果显示中国的资产价格不仅与本国的流动性状况成正相关关系，也与G-7国家的流动性状况成正相关关系，而且G-7国家宽松货币政策对引发中国宽松的货币政策有促进作用，即G-7国家的流动性冲击对中国具有很强溢出效应。反观中国流动性冲击对G-7国家的溢出效应，其效果则微乎其微；在验证流动性冲击与资产价格波动的关系之后，本文从物价稳定、金融稳定、目标冲突与政策困境三个方面来分析资产价格波动对央行货币政策构成的挑战，在应对这些挑战时，央行必然需要对所执行的货币政策规则进行选择；最后本文在实际经济周期模型、新凯恩斯模型和带金融加速器的新凯恩斯模型中研究央行选择不同的货币政策组合应对预期冲击和企业净值冲击导致的资产价格波动的表现，通过分析比较不同政策组合的实施效果，发现央行执行强通货膨胀目标下不将资产价格纳入政策规则的做法效果最好。
在以上研究的基础上，本文提出了以下政策建议：鉴于中国的流动性充裕状况已持续多年，虽然在经济下行时期对稳定经济是十分必要的，但长时期货币刺激政策的负面效应也不能忽视，央行应该适时调整货币政策，将物价稳定放在更加重要的位置；G-7国家的量化货币宽松政策会倒逼央行执行宽松的货币政策以维持人民币汇率基本稳定，强化中国的流动性过剩现象，因此央行必须在货币政策自主性和人民币汇率之间权衡利弊，从推进人民币国际化的角度，更为灵活的汇率形成机制有利于强化人民币国际货币的功能，而且放松对汇率的关注还可以减轻宽松货币政策带来的负面效应；G-7国家货币政策对中国的溢出效应明显，但反观中国货币政策对G-7国家的溢出效应，基本不存在，这从一个侧面反映了人民币的国家影响力微弱，应继续采取措施鼓励人民币国际结算和离岸业务，扩大人民币的影响力；G-7国家货币供应量与中国资产价格之间显著的正相关关系，提醒我们需警惕国外资金对权益类资产的炒作，必须加强对短期资本的监管，防止热钱大规模流进流出造成的负面影响；尽管资产价格通常与产出和投资呈现出密切的联系，中央银行应对资产价格波动的政策选择，还是应该更关注核心的经济变量，纳入资产价格的货币政策规则可能诱发道德风险，严厉的通货膨胀目标是央行货币政策的重点所在。
The huge movement of asset prices is usually accord with the volatility ofeconomy growth, and it also changes while monetary liquidity switches betweenadequate and shortage. The radical movement of asset prices is consistent with thechanges of monetary liquidity, which obviously isn’t a coincidence, there is closerelationship between asset prices and monetary liquidity. The fluctuation of assetprices, which causes macro economy instability in some way for both developed anddeveloping countries, brings great challenge for policy makers, especially for centralbanks. When policy makers decide how to deal with the fluctuation of asset pricesthey are confront with dilemmas: they are afraid of the chosen policy crush economybubble, which may drag the economy into recession, like Japan did in1990s; if let thepolicy unchanged, bubble would grow bigger and bigger until it is unsustained, thenthe economy suffers even more damages, the situation in China houses market is avivid example. If the movements of asset prices aren’t caused by its fundamentals,meanwhile asset prices’ fluctuations have strong influence for the real economy, andthen policy makers must response to the movements of asset prices. But taking assetprices into policy objectives or not, policy makers should be very careful because badpolicies could lead to asset prices more volatile, even the purposes of the policy aregood. Beside, different policy choices have different effects on economy welfare andcost. So it’s an important and emergent problem for policy makers how to cope withthe fluctuations of asset prices.
The theme of this paper is about the relationship between monetary liquidity,asset prices and central bank policy choices. To figure out this question, our researchis going to carry on in following aspects: first of all, we summarize characteristics forthe situation of China’s liquidity in recent years and find out there are much evidenceof excess liquidity, the resources of excess liquidity in China comes from bothdomestic and abroad, such as households have very high saving ratio, commercialbanks’ rapid capital expansion, double surplus accumulation and so on; then we consider the interaction between monetary shocks and asset prices, in this part weinclude monetary supply in G7in total monetary supply, so we could analyze thespillover of monetary between China and G7. It turns out asset prices in China hadupward pressure when there were rapid money growth in G7, a positive correlationbetween G7money growth and Chinese asset prices exists; after that we study on thechallenges central banks faced, which are caused by the fluctuation of asset prices. Inresponse to these challenges, such as price stability, financial stability, and policydilemma, the central bank must choose the implementation of monetary policy rules;Finally, in the real business cycle model, New Keynesian model and the NewKeynesian model with financial accelerator, we consider two different shocks,expectation whose main impact comes in the future, and net worth shocks which isabout the problems that appear to arise between borrowers and lenders after largeasset price movements. It turns out that although asset prices and the economy as awhole can express large movements in response to these shocks. We don’t find astrong case for including asset prices in monetary policy rules.
On the basis of the above studies, this paper proposes the following policyrecommendations: Given the ample liquidity situation in China has been going on foryears, although in times of economic downturn it is necessary to stabilize theeconomy. But the negative effects of the long period of monetary stimulus cannot beignored, the central bank should be timely adjustments to monetary policy, pricestability on a more important position; optimizing the current foreign exchangemanagement system, phasing out compulsory settlement, to encourage theinternationalization of the RMB settlement and offshore business, and expand theinfluence of the Yuan, also need to be alert to the speculation of foreign capital on theequity asset class, and to strengthen its monitoring of short-term capital; Asset pricesare usually closely linked to output and investment, policy options for central banksshould be more concerned about the core economic variables, severe inflationthe goalis still the focus of central bank monetary policy.
本文的主要目的是研究流动性冲击、资产价格波动和央行政策选择之间的相互关系，找到央行应对资产价格波动的最佳策略。为此，本文将上述问题分以下几个层次依次展开：首先对近年来中国流动性状况的特征进行总结和分析，发现中国的流动性过剩现象明显，而造成这种流动性状况的原因主要来自内部和外部两个方面，内部方面的原因有家庭部门的高储蓄率、银行体系的资产扩张和政策扰动，外部方面的原因则是贸易顺差和外商直接投资持续积累导致的双顺差，中国特殊的外汇管理体制强化了双顺差的影响；接着文章分析流动性冲击与资产价格的关系，为更全面细致地考察两者的作用机制，在考虑流动性冲击时不仅包括国内流动性状况的变化还将G-7国家的流动性变化纳入一起进行分析，实证结果显示中国的资产价格不仅与本国的流动性状况成正相关关系，也与G-7国家的流动性状况成正相关关系，而且G-7国家宽松货币政策对引发中国宽松的货币政策有促进作用，即G-7国家的流动性冲击对中国具有很强溢出效应。反观中国流动性冲击对G-7国家的溢出效应，其效果则微乎其微；在验证流动性冲击与资产价格波动的关系之后，本文从物价稳定、金融稳定、目标冲突与政策困境三个方面来分析资产价格波动对央行货币政策构成的挑战，在应对这些挑战时，央行必然需要对所执行的货币政策规则进行选择；最后本文在实际经济周期模型、新凯恩斯模型和带金融加速器的新凯恩斯模型中研究央行选择不同的货币政策组合应对预期冲击和企业净值冲击导致的资产价格波动的表现，通过分析比较不同政策组合的实施效果，发现央行执行强通货膨胀目标下不将资产价格纳入政策规则的做法效果最好。
在以上研究的基础上，本文提出了以下政策建议：鉴于中国的流动性充裕状况已持续多年，虽然在经济下行时期对稳定经济是十分必要的，但长时期货币刺激政策的负面效应也不能忽视，央行应该适时调整货币政策，将物价稳定放在更加重要的位置；G-7国家的量化货币宽松政策会倒逼央行执行宽松的货币政策以维持人民币汇率基本稳定，强化中国的流动性过剩现象，因此央行必须在货币政策自主性和人民币汇率之间权衡利弊，从推进人民币国际化的角度，更为灵活的汇率形成机制有利于强化人民币国际货币的功能，而且放松对汇率的关注还可以减轻宽松货币政策带来的负面效应；G-7国家货币政策对中国的溢出效应明显，但反观中国货币政策对G-7国家的溢出效应，基本不存在，这从一个侧面反映了人民币的国家影响力微弱，应继续采取措施鼓励人民币国际结算和离岸业务，扩大人民币的影响力；G-7国家货币供应量与中国资产价格之间显著的正相关关系，提醒我们需警惕国外资金对权益类资产的炒作，必须加强对短期资本的监管，防止热钱大规模流进流出造成的负面影响；尽管资产价格通常与产出和投资呈现出密切的联系，中央银行应对资产价格波动的政策选择，还是应该更关注核心的经济变量，纳入资产价格的货币政策规则可能诱发道德风险，严厉的通货膨胀目标是央行货币政策的重点所在。
The huge movement of asset prices is usually accord with the volatility ofeconomy growth, and it also changes while monetary liquidity switches betweenadequate and shortage. The radical movement of asset prices is consistent with thechanges of monetary liquidity, which obviously isn’t a coincidence, there is closerelationship between asset prices and monetary liquidity. The fluctuation of assetprices, which causes macro economy instability in some way for both developed anddeveloping countries, brings great challenge for policy makers, especially for centralbanks. When policy makers decide how to deal with the fluctuation of asset pricesthey are confront with dilemmas: they are afraid of the chosen policy crush economybubble, which may drag the economy into recession, like Japan did in1990s; if let thepolicy unchanged, bubble would grow bigger and bigger until it is unsustained, thenthe economy suffers even more damages, the situation in China houses market is avivid example. If the movements of asset prices aren’t caused by its fundamentals,meanwhile asset prices’ fluctuations have strong influence for the real economy, andthen policy makers must response to the movements of asset prices. But taking assetprices into policy objectives or not, policy makers should be very careful because badpolicies could lead to asset prices more volatile, even the purposes of the policy aregood. Beside, different policy choices have different effects on economy welfare andcost. So it’s an important and emergent problem for policy makers how to cope withthe fluctuations of asset prices.
The theme of this paper is about the relationship between monetary liquidity,asset prices and central bank policy choices. To figure out this question, our researchis going to carry on in following aspects: first of all, we summarize characteristics forthe situation of China’s liquidity in recent years and find out there are much evidenceof excess liquidity, the resources of excess liquidity in China comes from bothdomestic and abroad, such as households have very high saving ratio, commercialbanks’ rapid capital expansion, double surplus accumulation and so on; then we consider the interaction between monetary shocks and asset prices, in this part weinclude monetary supply in G7in total monetary supply, so we could analyze thespillover of monetary between China and G7. It turns out asset prices in China hadupward pressure when there were rapid money growth in G7, a positive correlationbetween G7money growth and Chinese asset prices exists; after that we study on thechallenges central banks faced, which are caused by the fluctuation of asset prices. Inresponse to these challenges, such as price stability, financial stability, and policydilemma, the central bank must choose the implementation of monetary policy rules;Finally, in the real business cycle model, New Keynesian model and the NewKeynesian model with financial accelerator, we consider two different shocks,expectation whose main impact comes in the future, and net worth shocks which isabout the problems that appear to arise between borrowers and lenders after largeasset price movements. It turns out that although asset prices and the economy as awhole can express large movements in response to these shocks. We don’t find astrong case for including asset prices in monetary policy rules.
On the basis of the above studies, this paper proposes the following policyrecommendations: Given the ample liquidity situation in China has been going on foryears, although in times of economic downturn it is necessary to stabilize theeconomy. But the negative effects of the long period of monetary stimulus cannot beignored, the central bank should be timely adjustments to monetary policy, pricestability on a more important position; optimizing the current foreign exchangemanagement system, phasing out compulsory settlement, to encourage theinternationalization of the RMB settlement and offshore business, and expand theinfluence of the Yuan, also need to be alert to the speculation of foreign capital on theequity asset class, and to strengthen its monitoring of short-term capital; Asset pricesare usually closely linked to output and investment, policy options for central banksshould be more concerned about the core economic variables, severe inflationthe goalis still the focus of central bank monetary policy.
引文
[1]如社保基金、股票型基金等其股票资产和债券资产的比例都有相应的限制。
[2]五大投行中的三家倒闭，通用汽车被国有化，AIG和美国银行接受政府注资以度过难关。
[3]例如高房价不仅是茶余饭后老百姓的谈资，也成为11年两会的重要议题。
[4]参见http://www.cnstock.com/paper_new/html/2007-02/08/content_51925501.htm。
[5]2007年雷曼兄弟破产之前，全球经济经历了自网络科技泡沫后长达数年的繁荣周期，流动性充裕，证券市场和房地产市场持续火爆，但雷曼破产引发的金融海啸导致全球流动性近乎枯竭，股市和房地产市场暴跌，众多著名金融机构和实体企业纷纷破产或陷入险境，随后虽有世界各国齐心协力救市，但全球经济至今仍在复苏的道路上徘徊。
[6]日本在泡沫经济崩溃后自1991年开始到2000年代初期的长期经济不景气。一般多指此时期，而“失落的十年”也被常常用来告诫政策当局以避免悲剧重演。
[7]参见Mankiw N. G.著，梁小民译，宏观经济学（第四版），PP428-431，北京：中国人民大学出版社。
[8]除资产价格波动通过财富效应、Tobin-Q效应、金融加速器和资产组合效应影响实体经济外，许多文献专注于研究资产价格波动传导到实体经济的机制，如债务-通货通缩、金融脆弱性假设、金融危机理论和金融不稳定性理论（Fisher，1933；Minsky，1986；Mishkin，1999等）
[9]参见萧松华、朱芳的货币银行学（第三版）第四章，PP141-198。
[10]此处的高能货币特指商业银行存放在中央银行里的准备金。
[11]次贷危机后，中国政府强化了对银行放贷行为的管制，银行信贷的配给不仅仅取决于资金的价格，因此信贷总量控制会削弱那些对资金流要求严格的行业的竞争力，而新增信贷总量则衡量了银行贷款的宽紧的重要指标，甚至会影响股市的走向。
[12]例如一些企业或行业急切渴望获得信贷而不能，与此同时银行和投资由于缺乏投资机会或信息不对称，虽然掌握大量闲置资金却放贷无门。
[13]过度储蓄是指居民的储蓄额超过未来一段时间（通常是一年）必要的生活支出。
[14]参见N. Gregory Mankiw著，梁小民译.宏观经济学（第四版）[M]. PP.390-393，北京：中国人民大学出版社。
[15]窗口指导是指中央银行通过劝告和建议来影响商业银行信贷行为的一种温和的、非强制性的货币政策工具，是一种劝谕式监管手段。
[16]参见南方都市报，2008‐11‐26，C3版。
[17]这里将新增信贷划入财政政策主要基于两方面的考虑：一是中国的银行大多为国有控股，政府对银行的放贷行为有很强的影响力；二是新增信贷的很大比例流入了政府的基础设施建设和国有企业的投资。
[18]参见Bernanke和Gertler（1999）论文“Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility”的第二部分。
[19]NMG表示M1的增速，而BMG则表示M2的增速（下同），式（8）中的资产收益率将分别计算房屋销售价格指数和股票价格指数的收益率。
[20]Divisa指数最初被当做一种指数工具用来衡量一组商品价格和数量变化的时间路径，由Francoes Divisia于1926年首次提出。
[21]除股市收益率与加权平均法M1增速负相关外，资产收益率与其它五个货币增速时间序列均正相关。
[22]BM滤波法的详细设计方法见Baxter和King（1995）论文“Measuring business cycles:approximate band-pass filters for economic time series”。
[23]G-7国家扩张货币政策引起国内宽松货币环境的途径还有：央行为维持稳定的人民币美元汇率被迫也进行货币扩张；巨额外贸顺差和外商直接投资造成的外汇占款等。
[24]金融衍生工具导致资产价格波动的例子屡见不鲜，例如东亚金融危机期间，国际资本通过做空东亚货币导致东亚许多国家股市暴跌、资本外流；造成次贷危机的一个重要原因便是过度的资产证券化（Loutskina，2009；王维安、徐滢，2011等）等。
[25]根据Alchian-Klein指数法的计算，上世纪90年代美国股市繁荣时期的生活成本是上涨的，消费行为应该受到抑制，但其间美国家庭的收入也大大提高，消费支出增长很快，这期间的相对生活成本恰恰是下降的。
[26]至于为什么投资者不利用资产价格偏离其基础价值来进行套利，Blanchard和Watson（1982）认识是非理性行为的存在所致。因为这与我们研究的核心问题关系不大，我们不去做更细致地讨论。
[27]假设该期间参数保持稳定，可大大简化模拟的难度，许多文献也采用这种方法。
[28]此处划分弱或强通货膨胀目标的β取值参考Bernanke和Gertler（1999）的BGG模型。
[29]与图5-1和图5-2一样，圆点曲线代表实际经济周期模型时的情形，虚线曲线和实线曲线分别代表新凯恩斯模型和带金融加速器的新凯恩斯模型时的情形。
[30]本世纪初以来，全球经济一直受益于美国引领的全球低利率现象，低利率带来了充裕的流动性，从而使全世界房价暴涨，股市也一直表现出上涨势头。直到2007年次贷危机爆发，全球的流动性状况发生逆转，跨国金融机构大多损失惨重，资本金压力大增，使得其出售在新兴市场持有的资产以补充资本，而资金外流恶化了新兴市场的流动性状况，导致新兴市场的资产价格下跌。例如美国银行在2010年8月宣布为了充实资本，出售131亿股建设银行H股股份，筹得资金约83亿美元。
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[2]五大投行中的三家倒闭，通用汽车被国有化，AIG和美国银行接受政府注资以度过难关。
[3]例如高房价不仅是茶余饭后老百姓的谈资，也成为11年两会的重要议题。
[4]参见http://www.cnstock.com/paper_new/html/2007-02/08/content_51925501.htm。
[5]2007年雷曼兄弟破产之前，全球经济经历了自网络科技泡沫后长达数年的繁荣周期，流动性充裕，证券市场和房地产市场持续火爆，但雷曼破产引发的金融海啸导致全球流动性近乎枯竭，股市和房地产市场暴跌，众多著名金融机构和实体企业纷纷破产或陷入险境，随后虽有世界各国齐心协力救市，但全球经济至今仍在复苏的道路上徘徊。
[6]日本在泡沫经济崩溃后自1991年开始到2000年代初期的长期经济不景气。一般多指此时期，而“失落的十年”也被常常用来告诫政策当局以避免悲剧重演。
[7]参见Mankiw N. G.著，梁小民译，宏观经济学（第四版），PP428-431，北京：中国人民大学出版社。
[8]除资产价格波动通过财富效应、Tobin-Q效应、金融加速器和资产组合效应影响实体经济外，许多文献专注于研究资产价格波动传导到实体经济的机制，如债务-通货通缩、金融脆弱性假设、金融危机理论和金融不稳定性理论（Fisher，1933；Minsky，1986；Mishkin，1999等）
[9]参见萧松华、朱芳的货币银行学（第三版）第四章，PP141-198。
[10]此处的高能货币特指商业银行存放在中央银行里的准备金。
[11]次贷危机后，中国政府强化了对银行放贷行为的管制，银行信贷的配给不仅仅取决于资金的价格，因此信贷总量控制会削弱那些对资金流要求严格的行业的竞争力，而新增信贷总量则衡量了银行贷款的宽紧的重要指标，甚至会影响股市的走向。
[12]例如一些企业或行业急切渴望获得信贷而不能，与此同时银行和投资由于缺乏投资机会或信息不对称，虽然掌握大量闲置资金却放贷无门。
[13]过度储蓄是指居民的储蓄额超过未来一段时间（通常是一年）必要的生活支出。
[14]参见N. Gregory Mankiw著，梁小民译.宏观经济学（第四版）[M]. PP.390-393，北京：中国人民大学出版社。
[15]窗口指导是指中央银行通过劝告和建议来影响商业银行信贷行为的一种温和的、非强制性的货币政策工具，是一种劝谕式监管手段。
[16]参见南方都市报，2008‐11‐26，C3版。
[17]这里将新增信贷划入财政政策主要基于两方面的考虑：一是中国的银行大多为国有控股，政府对银行的放贷行为有很强的影响力；二是新增信贷的很大比例流入了政府的基础设施建设和国有企业的投资。
[18]参见Bernanke和Gertler（1999）论文“Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility”的第二部分。
[19]NMG表示M1的增速，而BMG则表示M2的增速（下同），式（8）中的资产收益率将分别计算房屋销售价格指数和股票价格指数的收益率。
[20]Divisa指数最初被当做一种指数工具用来衡量一组商品价格和数量变化的时间路径，由Francoes Divisia于1926年首次提出。
[21]除股市收益率与加权平均法M1增速负相关外，资产收益率与其它五个货币增速时间序列均正相关。
[22]BM滤波法的详细设计方法见Baxter和King（1995）论文“Measuring business cycles:approximate band-pass filters for economic time series”。
[23]G-7国家扩张货币政策引起国内宽松货币环境的途径还有：央行为维持稳定的人民币美元汇率被迫也进行货币扩张；巨额外贸顺差和外商直接投资造成的外汇占款等。
[24]金融衍生工具导致资产价格波动的例子屡见不鲜，例如东亚金融危机期间，国际资本通过做空东亚货币导致东亚许多国家股市暴跌、资本外流；造成次贷危机的一个重要原因便是过度的资产证券化（Loutskina，2009；王维安、徐滢，2011等）等。
[25]根据Alchian-Klein指数法的计算，上世纪90年代美国股市繁荣时期的生活成本是上涨的，消费行为应该受到抑制，但其间美国家庭的收入也大大提高，消费支出增长很快，这期间的相对生活成本恰恰是下降的。
[26]至于为什么投资者不利用资产价格偏离其基础价值来进行套利，Blanchard和Watson（1982）认识是非理性行为的存在所致。因为这与我们研究的核心问题关系不大，我们不去做更细致地讨论。
[27]假设该期间参数保持稳定，可大大简化模拟的难度，许多文献也采用这种方法。
[28]此处划分弱或强通货膨胀目标的β取值参考Bernanke和Gertler（1999）的BGG模型。
[29]与图5-1和图5-2一样，圆点曲线代表实际经济周期模型时的情形，虚线曲线和实线曲线分别代表新凯恩斯模型和带金融加速器的新凯恩斯模型时的情形。
[30]本世纪初以来，全球经济一直受益于美国引领的全球低利率现象，低利率带来了充裕的流动性，从而使全世界房价暴涨，股市也一直表现出上涨势头。直到2007年次贷危机爆发，全球的流动性状况发生逆转，跨国金融机构大多损失惨重，资本金压力大增，使得其出售在新兴市场持有的资产以补充资本，而资金外流恶化了新兴市场的流动性状况，导致新兴市场的资产价格下跌。例如美国银行在2010年8月宣布为了充实资本，出售131亿股建设银行H股股份，筹得资金约83亿美元。
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