我国总需求管理效果
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摘要
总需求管理是国家宏观调控必不可少的重要手段,究其原因,在于总需求管理在国家宏观调控首要目标实现中所起的作用。国家宏观调控的首要目标是什么?事实上,从各国经验来看,经济稳定乃是宏观经济政策传统的和主要的目标。经济过热时期资源的过度消耗和紧接着发生的“紧缩期”的资源闲置,都会使长期内所能达到的经济增长和社会福利水平较低,此外还有通货膨胀和失业造成的不平等问题。所以,减少波动、稳定增长成为宏观经济调控的首要目标。自古典宏观经济学以来,关于总体经济波动的纷争从未取得过完全的一致,但争论却始终建立在一定程度共识的基础之上。经济的周期波动,无论是由于经济的、政治的还是社会的原因所致,均被归结为供给和需求两类冲击。古典和新古典学派主张经济的周期波动源于供给面的冲击,政府的宏观调控政策力所不及,无法发挥作用,经济在长期里有一种自动的平衡机制。但是,不管长期内如何,现代生活中,人们已经普遍地认识到,价格刚性至少在短期内存在着,而且确实存在着需求冲击,其可能造成的后果使政府无法袖手旁观,需要采取总需求管理政策加以调控。
因此,从某种意义上说,国家为实现经济稳定的直接宏观调控更多的属于短期行为,其手段多从需求着手,总需求管理自然成为其必不可少的调控手段。反过来说,一国的总需求管理效果如何,关键在于其是否在减少波动、稳定经济增长方面起到作用。本文的目的即在于从实现经济稳定的目标出发,分析我国改革开放以来的总需求管理效果。在借助模型实证分析得出一定理论框架的基础上,对我国进一步的总需求管理政策以及整个宏观经济调控做了一些分析,提出相应的建议。
对我国总需求管理问题的系统研究需要有理论上的指导以及历史状况的总结。本文的第一章首先考察了我国总需求管理的有关研究成果。发现我国学者对总需求管理的研究主要分为以凯恩斯需求理论为主线的总需求管理研究和批判凯恩斯主义的总需求管理研究。在具体研究方法上,以规范性描述为主,实证研究比较匮乏,建立完整的量化模型更是稀少,多是历史数据归纳型单纯罗列数据。这里,笔者还是认同以凯恩斯需求理论为主线的总需求管理研究方式,认为新的需求管理方法实际上是对凯恩斯需求管理理论的一个发展。在分析方法上倾向于规范分析和实证模型建立相结合,既有助于对总需求管理状况的整体把握,又可以对其进行量化、直观的描述。在了解了相关研究成果的基础上,第一章的第二部分对我国总需求管理的沿革与存在的问题做了分析。这里主要是按照我国的“五年一阶段”计划划分进行相关规范描述,根据历年数据得到我国改革开放以来经济增长情况折线图,对比总需求管理政策,考察相关区间的经济稳定情况,进而分析我国总需求管理存在的问题:不到位的市场环境限制了总需求管理政策作用的发挥;转轨时期特殊的经济形势易造成总需求管理的错误决策。第一章的第三部分,在理论总结和形势把握的基础上,简单的阐述了笔者的选题思路、方法和工具。提出了本文的重要分析模型:我国两阶段IS-LM模型。选择IS-LM模型,一是其具有其他相关模型无法替代的成熟与完整性,二是其简单并容易被人理解;选择以1992年为界两阶段划分,⑴出于经济周期的考虑。根据经济增长情况折线图,继发达市场经济国家的经济周期出现平滑化、微波化的趋势后,我国20世纪90年代特别是1992年以来的经济周期也出现了这种趋势和特点,与过去那种起伏剧烈、峰谷落差极大的波动轨迹完全不同;⑵1992年开始我国的总需求出现具有代表性的通胀期。
在考察了我国总需求管理的相关理论和沿革情况以后,本文第二章和第三章完整的利用时间序列数据建立了我国的两阶段IS-LM模型。其中,第二章做的是模型建立的相关准备工作,即模型的设定。由于IS-LM模型模型主要涉及的是产品市场和货币市场的共同均衡,这里笔者分别做了产品市场的相关设定和货币市场的相关设定。产品市场主要涉及的统计指标有:总消费、总投资、商品服务净出口、汇率、价格指数,主要涉及的函数有:消费函数、投资函数、出口函数、进口函数以及汇率函数。货币市场主要涉及的统计指标有:货币供给量、货币需求量、利率,主要涉及的函数有:货币需求函数。准备工作完成以后,第三章即为我国两阶段IS-LM模型的建立。首先是数据的选取,从统计年鉴等资料上获取的数据一般都是名义数量,在建立模型时需要将通过物价指数将它们转换成实际量,这里笔者选用的物价指数为GDP平减指数,简写为D.fi。计算公式为D.fi=GDPi IGDP1978/ IGDPi GDP1978。由于所选数据为时间序列数据,容易出现非平稳性和自相关性,笔者采用广义差分法对数据进行修正,并且在建立回归方程时对方程的协整性进行检验,均是协整的,表明方程有效。最终确立了我国两阶段IS-LM模型:
在成功建立我国两阶段IS-LM模型以后,本文的第四章,针对模型的具体结果,就我国两阶段总需求管理政策的效果进行了相关分析。一是我国总需求管理政策的作用基础是存在的。构成我国IS-LM模型的若干变量中,除了进口和汇率的关系反常、汇率和利率的关系微弱外,其他变量之间的关系基本上是正常的,系数值检验显著,符号方向也比较稳定。我国处在转轨经济时期,体制与产业结构方面都存在一定的特殊性,因此对现阶段我国的宏观经济政策效果抱有过高的期望也是不够现实的,但政策正常作用的基础是存在和具备的。二是我国1992年后总需求管理政策效果较前阶段降低。这一点从推导出的总需求函数中很容易看出。导致财政政策效果降低原因在于:⑴居民边际消费倾向较大程度降低;⑵边际进口倾向较大程度上升。而导致货币政策效果降低主要是政策原因。三是我国财政政策的政策效果高于货币政策。这一点本文是通过相关政策乘数比较来说明的。并且财政政策较货币政策的政策效果大这一结论在我国1996-2002年治理“软着陆”后通货紧缩的过程中曾得以证明。最后,笔者针对通过模型得出的三个有关我国总需求管理效果的结论可能使读者产生的疑问,做了一个简单的分析。
在分析了我国改革开放以来的总需求管理效果之后,本文的第五章,对我国现阶段总需求管理提出了一些政策建议,也是全文的总结章。一是重视宏观经济政策在经济发展中的作用;二是建立宏观经济政策得以发挥作用的经济基础;三是积极推动三大需求均衡增长;四是合理应用货币政策应对通货膨胀;最后是一定程度上,实行需求管理政策与供给管理政策相结合。
本文的主要创新在于:一是用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方式,全面分析了我国改革开放以来的总需求管理效果,效果检验标准即为总需求管理政策对经济波动的熨平能力。二是根据我国1978-2005年的宏观经济数据建立了中国的IS-LM模型,并将1978-2005年以1992年为界划分为两个阶段,建立了两阶段IS-LM模型,得出我国货币与财政政策效果双下降的结论,并对该结论做了相应的分析解释。
The total demand management is the important and indispensable means of the state's macro regulation and control, the reason is that aggregate demand management at the national macro-control to achieve the primary objective of the role played by. State's macro-control is the primary objective of what? In fact, from experience, is the economic stability of macroeconomic policies and the traditional main goal. The period of economic overheating and excessive consumption of resources, then the "crunch period" idle resources will enable to achieve long-term economic growth and lower levels of social welfare, in addition to inflation and unemployment caused by inequality. Therefore, to reduce volatility and stable growth as the primary objective of macroeconomic regulation and control. Since classical macroeconomics, the overall economic fluctuations on the dispute have never been fully achieved consensus, but controversy has always built to a certain extent on the basis of consensus. Periodic fluctuations in the economy, whether due to economic, political or social reasons, are reduced to two categories of supply and demand shocks. Classical and neo-classical school of thought that the economic cycle fluctuations in the supply of stems from the impact of the government's macro-control policies of the time and unable to play a role in the economy in the long term, there is a mechanism for automatically balance. However, regardless of how long, modern life, people have been universally recognized, at least in the short term price rigidity in the memory, and indeed there is a demand shock, its possible consequences so that the government could not stand by and the need for aggregate demand management policies to control.
Therefore, in a sense, to achieve the economic stability of the country's macro-control more directly belonging to short-term behavior, its means more demand from the start, with a total demand management naturally become its essential control means. Conversely, a country's total demand management effectiveness, the key lies in whether the reduced volatility, economic growth and stability play a role. The purpose of this paper is from the realization that the objectives of economic stability, since the reform and opening up of China's total demand management effectiveness. Empirical analysis model in the use of certain theoretical framework drawn on the basis of the total of China's further demand management policies, as well as macro-economic regulation and control as a whole has done some analysis, the corresponding recommendations.
On the issue of China's total demand management system theoretically study the need for guidance and historical conditions in the summary. The first chapter in this paper first inspected the management of China's total demand for the relevant research results. Chinese scholars found on aggregate demand management study was divided into Keynesian demand theory to the main line of aggregate demand management studies and the total critical Keynesian demand management study. In specific research methods to standardize the description of the main comparative lack of empirical studies, the establishment of a complete quantitative model is scarce, and more historical data is summarized simply list data type. Here, the author or agree to the main line Keynesian demand theory of aggregate demand management study, the demand that the new management approach is actually Keynesian demand management theory of a development. In the preferred method of analysis and norms established empirical model of combining both contribute to the management of aggregate demand grasp the overall situation, but also their quantitative, and visual description. In understanding of the relevant research results on the basis of Chapter 1 of the second part of the management of China's total demand Evolution and the problems were analyzed. Here mainly on the basis of China's "five-year phase of" Project description of the associated norms, according to data received over the years since China's reform and opening up, economic growth in the broken line map, as compared with total demand management policies, the inspection interval related to economic stability, then our analysis the aggregate demand management issues: the market environment is not in place limiting the aggregate demand management policy role of the play; Transitional Period special economic situation could easily lead to the wrong aggregate demand management decision-making. First and Evidence, in the theoretical grasp the situation and concluded on the basis of simple exposition on the author's topics ideas, methods and tools. This raised an important analysis model: My two-stage IS-LM model. Choice IS-LM model: First, its correlation with other irreplaceable model of maturity and integrity, and the second is its simple and easily understood; choose to 1992 for the two phases of industry,⑴out of the economic cycle considerations. According to the economic growth of the broken line map, following the developed market economy countries in smoothing the economic cycle, microwave and the trend, China in the 1990s, especially since 1992 in the economic cycle also have such trends and characteristics, and past species dramatic ups and downs, great fluctuations peak and valley divide completely different trajectory;⑵1992 began the total demand of China's representative inflation.
During his inspection tour of China's total demand management theory and the related subsequent evolution of the situation, the paper Chapters II and III integrity of the use of time-series data to establish the country's two-stage IS-LM model. The second chapter do is to model the relevant preparatory work, the model is set. The IS-LM model is the model mainly involve product market and the common currency market balance, here the author were done setting the relevant product market and the money market-related settings. Products in the statistical indicators: total consumption, with a total investment, net exports of goods and services, exchange rates, price index, the main function: Consumption Function, investment function, export function, import function and the exchange rate function. Money market mainly involves statistical indicators are: Money Supply, demand for the currency, interest rates, mainly involving the function is: money demand function. After the completion of the preparatory work, this is the third chapter of a two-stage model of the IS-LM established. The first is the selection of data from the Statistical Yearbook on access to information, such as the data are generally nominal quantity required in the establishment of model adopted Price Index will be converted into the actual measurement them, the author here selected price index for the GDP deflator, the abbreviation for D.fi. Formula for D.fi = GDPi IGDP1978 / IGDPi GDP1978. Because data for the selected time-series data that are easily non-stationary and auto-correlation, the authors used generalized difference method of data that, and in the establishment of the regression equation, the equation of cointegration test, are Cointegration, that equation effective.
China successfully established in two phases after the IS-LM model, the paper's fourth chapter, in view of the specific model findings, the total demand of China's two-stage management policies had the effect of correlation analysis. First, China's total demand management policy role foundation exists. A model of the IS-LM number of variables, in addition to the relationship between imports and the exchange rate anomalies, the relationship between the exchange rate and interest rates weak, the other the relationship between the variables is basically normal, significant test of numerical and symbolic direction is relatively stable. China is still in the period of economic transition, institutional and industrial aspects There is a certain particularity, the present stage of China's macro-economic policies have high expectations effect it is not enough reality, but the policy is the basis of the normal role of existence and have the. Second, China in 1992 after the effects of aggregate demand management policies lowers than the previous stage. This is derived from the aggregate demand function is very easy to see. Effects of fiscal policy led to lower due to:⑴residents greater tendency marginal consumption decreased.⑵greater tendency marginal rise in imports. Which led to lower the effect of monetary policy is mainly policy reasons.⑶China's fiscal policy than the policy effects of monetary policy. This paper is relevant policies adopted to illustrate the multiplier comparison. Fiscal policy and monetary policy than the policy conclusion that the effect of China's 1996-2002 governance in a "soft landing" after the process of deflation has been proven. Finally, the model drawn by the author against the three management effectiveness of China's total demand for the conclusions so that the reader may have doubts, do a simple analysis.
In analyzing China's reform and opening up since the after effects of aggregate demand management, the paper's Chapter V, at the present stage of China's total demand management made a number of policy recommendations, is the full text of the summary chapter. First, attention to the macroeconomic policy in economic development role; Second is to establish the role of macroeconomic policies and the economic base of three main demands is actively promoting balanced growth; four is a reasonable application of the monetary policy response inflation; finally, there is a certain degree, a demand management policies and supply management policies.
The main innovation lies in: First, in normative and empirical analysis of a combination of analysis, a comprehensive analysis of China's reform and opening since the aggregate demand management effectiveness, the test results shall be the aggregate demand management policies on economic fluctuations Screed capacity. Second, according to China's 1978-2005 years of macroeconomic data to establish China's IS-LM model, and 1978-2005, with 1992 the sector is divided into two phases, established a two-stage IS-LM model, reached China monetary and fiscal policy effects double declining conclusions and the conclusions of the analysis done a corresponding explanation.
因此,从某种意义上说,国家为实现经济稳定的直接宏观调控更多的属于短期行为,其手段多从需求着手,总需求管理自然成为其必不可少的调控手段。反过来说,一国的总需求管理效果如何,关键在于其是否在减少波动、稳定经济增长方面起到作用。本文的目的即在于从实现经济稳定的目标出发,分析我国改革开放以来的总需求管理效果。在借助模型实证分析得出一定理论框架的基础上,对我国进一步的总需求管理政策以及整个宏观经济调控做了一些分析,提出相应的建议。
对我国总需求管理问题的系统研究需要有理论上的指导以及历史状况的总结。本文的第一章首先考察了我国总需求管理的有关研究成果。发现我国学者对总需求管理的研究主要分为以凯恩斯需求理论为主线的总需求管理研究和批判凯恩斯主义的总需求管理研究。在具体研究方法上,以规范性描述为主,实证研究比较匮乏,建立完整的量化模型更是稀少,多是历史数据归纳型单纯罗列数据。这里,笔者还是认同以凯恩斯需求理论为主线的总需求管理研究方式,认为新的需求管理方法实际上是对凯恩斯需求管理理论的一个发展。在分析方法上倾向于规范分析和实证模型建立相结合,既有助于对总需求管理状况的整体把握,又可以对其进行量化、直观的描述。在了解了相关研究成果的基础上,第一章的第二部分对我国总需求管理的沿革与存在的问题做了分析。这里主要是按照我国的“五年一阶段”计划划分进行相关规范描述,根据历年数据得到我国改革开放以来经济增长情况折线图,对比总需求管理政策,考察相关区间的经济稳定情况,进而分析我国总需求管理存在的问题:不到位的市场环境限制了总需求管理政策作用的发挥;转轨时期特殊的经济形势易造成总需求管理的错误决策。第一章的第三部分,在理论总结和形势把握的基础上,简单的阐述了笔者的选题思路、方法和工具。提出了本文的重要分析模型:我国两阶段IS-LM模型。选择IS-LM模型,一是其具有其他相关模型无法替代的成熟与完整性,二是其简单并容易被人理解;选择以1992年为界两阶段划分,⑴出于经济周期的考虑。根据经济增长情况折线图,继发达市场经济国家的经济周期出现平滑化、微波化的趋势后,我国20世纪90年代特别是1992年以来的经济周期也出现了这种趋势和特点,与过去那种起伏剧烈、峰谷落差极大的波动轨迹完全不同;⑵1992年开始我国的总需求出现具有代表性的通胀期。
在考察了我国总需求管理的相关理论和沿革情况以后,本文第二章和第三章完整的利用时间序列数据建立了我国的两阶段IS-LM模型。其中,第二章做的是模型建立的相关准备工作,即模型的设定。由于IS-LM模型模型主要涉及的是产品市场和货币市场的共同均衡,这里笔者分别做了产品市场的相关设定和货币市场的相关设定。产品市场主要涉及的统计指标有:总消费、总投资、商品服务净出口、汇率、价格指数,主要涉及的函数有:消费函数、投资函数、出口函数、进口函数以及汇率函数。货币市场主要涉及的统计指标有:货币供给量、货币需求量、利率,主要涉及的函数有:货币需求函数。准备工作完成以后,第三章即为我国两阶段IS-LM模型的建立。首先是数据的选取,从统计年鉴等资料上获取的数据一般都是名义数量,在建立模型时需要将通过物价指数将它们转换成实际量,这里笔者选用的物价指数为GDP平减指数,简写为D.fi。计算公式为D.fi=GDPi IGDP1978/ IGDPi GDP1978。由于所选数据为时间序列数据,容易出现非平稳性和自相关性,笔者采用广义差分法对数据进行修正,并且在建立回归方程时对方程的协整性进行检验,均是协整的,表明方程有效。最终确立了我国两阶段IS-LM模型:
在成功建立我国两阶段IS-LM模型以后,本文的第四章,针对模型的具体结果,就我国两阶段总需求管理政策的效果进行了相关分析。一是我国总需求管理政策的作用基础是存在的。构成我国IS-LM模型的若干变量中,除了进口和汇率的关系反常、汇率和利率的关系微弱外,其他变量之间的关系基本上是正常的,系数值检验显著,符号方向也比较稳定。我国处在转轨经济时期,体制与产业结构方面都存在一定的特殊性,因此对现阶段我国的宏观经济政策效果抱有过高的期望也是不够现实的,但政策正常作用的基础是存在和具备的。二是我国1992年后总需求管理政策效果较前阶段降低。这一点从推导出的总需求函数中很容易看出。导致财政政策效果降低原因在于:⑴居民边际消费倾向较大程度降低;⑵边际进口倾向较大程度上升。而导致货币政策效果降低主要是政策原因。三是我国财政政策的政策效果高于货币政策。这一点本文是通过相关政策乘数比较来说明的。并且财政政策较货币政策的政策效果大这一结论在我国1996-2002年治理“软着陆”后通货紧缩的过程中曾得以证明。最后,笔者针对通过模型得出的三个有关我国总需求管理效果的结论可能使读者产生的疑问,做了一个简单的分析。
在分析了我国改革开放以来的总需求管理效果之后,本文的第五章,对我国现阶段总需求管理提出了一些政策建议,也是全文的总结章。一是重视宏观经济政策在经济发展中的作用;二是建立宏观经济政策得以发挥作用的经济基础;三是积极推动三大需求均衡增长;四是合理应用货币政策应对通货膨胀;最后是一定程度上,实行需求管理政策与供给管理政策相结合。
本文的主要创新在于:一是用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方式,全面分析了我国改革开放以来的总需求管理效果,效果检验标准即为总需求管理政策对经济波动的熨平能力。二是根据我国1978-2005年的宏观经济数据建立了中国的IS-LM模型,并将1978-2005年以1992年为界划分为两个阶段,建立了两阶段IS-LM模型,得出我国货币与财政政策效果双下降的结论,并对该结论做了相应的分析解释。
The total demand management is the important and indispensable means of the state's macro regulation and control, the reason is that aggregate demand management at the national macro-control to achieve the primary objective of the role played by. State's macro-control is the primary objective of what? In fact, from experience, is the economic stability of macroeconomic policies and the traditional main goal. The period of economic overheating and excessive consumption of resources, then the "crunch period" idle resources will enable to achieve long-term economic growth and lower levels of social welfare, in addition to inflation and unemployment caused by inequality. Therefore, to reduce volatility and stable growth as the primary objective of macroeconomic regulation and control. Since classical macroeconomics, the overall economic fluctuations on the dispute have never been fully achieved consensus, but controversy has always built to a certain extent on the basis of consensus. Periodic fluctuations in the economy, whether due to economic, political or social reasons, are reduced to two categories of supply and demand shocks. Classical and neo-classical school of thought that the economic cycle fluctuations in the supply of stems from the impact of the government's macro-control policies of the time and unable to play a role in the economy in the long term, there is a mechanism for automatically balance. However, regardless of how long, modern life, people have been universally recognized, at least in the short term price rigidity in the memory, and indeed there is a demand shock, its possible consequences so that the government could not stand by and the need for aggregate demand management policies to control.
Therefore, in a sense, to achieve the economic stability of the country's macro-control more directly belonging to short-term behavior, its means more demand from the start, with a total demand management naturally become its essential control means. Conversely, a country's total demand management effectiveness, the key lies in whether the reduced volatility, economic growth and stability play a role. The purpose of this paper is from the realization that the objectives of economic stability, since the reform and opening up of China's total demand management effectiveness. Empirical analysis model in the use of certain theoretical framework drawn on the basis of the total of China's further demand management policies, as well as macro-economic regulation and control as a whole has done some analysis, the corresponding recommendations.
On the issue of China's total demand management system theoretically study the need for guidance and historical conditions in the summary. The first chapter in this paper first inspected the management of China's total demand for the relevant research results. Chinese scholars found on aggregate demand management study was divided into Keynesian demand theory to the main line of aggregate demand management studies and the total critical Keynesian demand management study. In specific research methods to standardize the description of the main comparative lack of empirical studies, the establishment of a complete quantitative model is scarce, and more historical data is summarized simply list data type. Here, the author or agree to the main line Keynesian demand theory of aggregate demand management study, the demand that the new management approach is actually Keynesian demand management theory of a development. In the preferred method of analysis and norms established empirical model of combining both contribute to the management of aggregate demand grasp the overall situation, but also their quantitative, and visual description. In understanding of the relevant research results on the basis of Chapter 1 of the second part of the management of China's total demand Evolution and the problems were analyzed. Here mainly on the basis of China's "five-year phase of" Project description of the associated norms, according to data received over the years since China's reform and opening up, economic growth in the broken line map, as compared with total demand management policies, the inspection interval related to economic stability, then our analysis the aggregate demand management issues: the market environment is not in place limiting the aggregate demand management policy role of the play; Transitional Period special economic situation could easily lead to the wrong aggregate demand management decision-making. First and Evidence, in the theoretical grasp the situation and concluded on the basis of simple exposition on the author's topics ideas, methods and tools. This raised an important analysis model: My two-stage IS-LM model. Choice IS-LM model: First, its correlation with other irreplaceable model of maturity and integrity, and the second is its simple and easily understood; choose to 1992 for the two phases of industry,⑴out of the economic cycle considerations. According to the economic growth of the broken line map, following the developed market economy countries in smoothing the economic cycle, microwave and the trend, China in the 1990s, especially since 1992 in the economic cycle also have such trends and characteristics, and past species dramatic ups and downs, great fluctuations peak and valley divide completely different trajectory;⑵1992 began the total demand of China's representative inflation.
During his inspection tour of China's total demand management theory and the related subsequent evolution of the situation, the paper Chapters II and III integrity of the use of time-series data to establish the country's two-stage IS-LM model. The second chapter do is to model the relevant preparatory work, the model is set. The IS-LM model is the model mainly involve product market and the common currency market balance, here the author were done setting the relevant product market and the money market-related settings. Products in the statistical indicators: total consumption, with a total investment, net exports of goods and services, exchange rates, price index, the main function: Consumption Function, investment function, export function, import function and the exchange rate function. Money market mainly involves statistical indicators are: Money Supply, demand for the currency, interest rates, mainly involving the function is: money demand function. After the completion of the preparatory work, this is the third chapter of a two-stage model of the IS-LM established. The first is the selection of data from the Statistical Yearbook on access to information, such as the data are generally nominal quantity required in the establishment of model adopted Price Index will be converted into the actual measurement them, the author here selected price index for the GDP deflator, the abbreviation for D.fi. Formula for D.fi = GDPi IGDP1978 / IGDPi GDP1978. Because data for the selected time-series data that are easily non-stationary and auto-correlation, the authors used generalized difference method of data that, and in the establishment of the regression equation, the equation of cointegration test, are Cointegration, that equation effective.
China successfully established in two phases after the IS-LM model, the paper's fourth chapter, in view of the specific model findings, the total demand of China's two-stage management policies had the effect of correlation analysis. First, China's total demand management policy role foundation exists. A model of the IS-LM number of variables, in addition to the relationship between imports and the exchange rate anomalies, the relationship between the exchange rate and interest rates weak, the other the relationship between the variables is basically normal, significant test of numerical and symbolic direction is relatively stable. China is still in the period of economic transition, institutional and industrial aspects There is a certain particularity, the present stage of China's macro-economic policies have high expectations effect it is not enough reality, but the policy is the basis of the normal role of existence and have the. Second, China in 1992 after the effects of aggregate demand management policies lowers than the previous stage. This is derived from the aggregate demand function is very easy to see. Effects of fiscal policy led to lower due to:⑴residents greater tendency marginal consumption decreased.⑵greater tendency marginal rise in imports. Which led to lower the effect of monetary policy is mainly policy reasons.⑶China's fiscal policy than the policy effects of monetary policy. This paper is relevant policies adopted to illustrate the multiplier comparison. Fiscal policy and monetary policy than the policy conclusion that the effect of China's 1996-2002 governance in a "soft landing" after the process of deflation has been proven. Finally, the model drawn by the author against the three management effectiveness of China's total demand for the conclusions so that the reader may have doubts, do a simple analysis.
In analyzing China's reform and opening up since the after effects of aggregate demand management, the paper's Chapter V, at the present stage of China's total demand management made a number of policy recommendations, is the full text of the summary chapter. First, attention to the macroeconomic policy in economic development role; Second is to establish the role of macroeconomic policies and the economic base of three main demands is actively promoting balanced growth; four is a reasonable application of the monetary policy response inflation; finally, there is a certain degree, a demand management policies and supply management policies.
The main innovation lies in: First, in normative and empirical analysis of a combination of analysis, a comprehensive analysis of China's reform and opening since the aggregate demand management effectiveness, the test results shall be the aggregate demand management policies on economic fluctuations Screed capacity. Second, according to China's 1978-2005 years of macroeconomic data to establish China's IS-LM model, and 1978-2005, with 1992 the sector is divided into two phases, established a two-stage IS-LM model, reached China monetary and fiscal policy effects double declining conclusions and the conclusions of the analysis done a corresponding explanation.
引文
①数据来源:中国统计年鉴2006,中国统计公报2006。
②资料出处:方福前.IS-M模型的新发展.教学与研究:2004年第8期
④李子奈.计量经济学——方法和应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1992,162-167。
⑤唐兴国.计量经济学——理论、方法和模型[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1988,198-200。
⑥庞皓.计量经济学[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2002,5-6。
[1]Keynes J M. The General Theory of Employment , Interest and Money[M].London:Macmillan and CO,1936.
[2]Friedman M. The role of monetary policy[J].American Economic Review,1968.
[3]Lucas R E. Expectations and the neutrality of money[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1972.
[4]Hicks. Mr. Keynes and the“Classic”[J],in Econometrica, 1937.
[5]Rorbert S Pindyck, Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts [M].McGraw-Hill, 1998, 72-86.
[6]维普资讯.斯蒂芬·罗奇:中国经济重在控外需促内需[J].中国经济信息,2006年第18期:32～33.
[7]司春林,王安宇.宏观经济学——中国经济分析[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002.
[8]庞皓.计量经济学[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2002.
[9]樊纲,张晓晶.面向新世纪的中国宏观经济政策[M].北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2000.
[10]李子奈.计量经济学——方法和应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1992,162-167.
[11]唐兴国.计量经济学——理论、方法和模型[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1988,198-200.
[12]钟瑛. 20世纪90年代以来的中国宏观经济政策调整[J].当代中国史研究,2005年第4期:101～107.
[13]庞明川.转轨以来中国宏观调控与经济发展[J].财经问题研究,2006年第2期:11～19.
[14]中国人民大学经济学研究所.中国宏观经济形势与政策:2005-2006年[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006年第1期: 5～10.
[15]刘伟,苏剑.供给管理与我国现阶段的宏观调控[J].经济研究,2007年第2期:4～15.
[16]刘溶沧,马珺.论宏观经济调控的稳定目标及其在中国的实现对策[J].宏观经济研究,2001年第9期:26～31.
[17]陈东琪.经济温和调整阶段的总体判断与宏观调控着力点[J].学术研究,2005年第8期:5～9.
[18]陈端计.中国55年来宏观经济调控的制度变迁分析[J].周口师范学院学报,2004年第4期:58～62.
[19]吴信如.开放经济的IS—LM模型和我国目前宏观经济政策选择[J].华东师范大学学报:哲社版,1999年第6期:63～67,93.
[20]李义平.需求管理与供给管理——宏观经济管理的两种模式及其理论基础[J].中国工业经济,1999年第12期:11～15.
[21]周学.从凯恩斯主义的失误看新需求管理理论[J].经济评论,1998年第2期:15～22.
[22]郑英隆.试析凯恩斯的有效需求理论及其方法论[J].中南财经大学学报,1997年第3期:87～89.
[23]方福前.IS-M模型的新发展[J].教学与研究,2004年第8期:46～52.
[24]梁红,乔虹,宋宇.中国人民银行将一年期存贷款利率分别上调至3.33%和6.84%,并将存款准备金率上调至11.5%[J].China Economics Quarterly中国经济研究季刊, 2 nd Quarter 2007:36.
[25]任太增,IS-LM模型与宏观经济政策选择[J].社会科学辑刊,2000年第4期:77～79.
[26]维普资讯.网民热议扩大内需[J].瞭望新闻周刊,2006年第52期:9.
[27]罗雨泽.我国FDI、经济增长与国内投资结构关系的实证研究—基于协整方法(1979-2004)[J].当代财经,2006年第3期:97～103.
[28]李桂萍.中国1998年以来财政货币政策实施效应的分析[D].内蒙古:内蒙古大学,2004年5月.
[29]国务院发展研究中心课题组.中国宏观经济政策的反思及今后的取向[J].维普资讯:11～21.
[30]中国统计年鉴编辑部.中国统计年鉴2006.国家统计局出版社,2006年9月.
[31]参考网站:人大经济论坛,维普资讯,中国资讯行.
②资料出处:方福前.IS-M模型的新发展.教学与研究:2004年第8期
④李子奈.计量经济学——方法和应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1992,162-167。
⑤唐兴国.计量经济学——理论、方法和模型[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1988,198-200。
⑥庞皓.计量经济学[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2002,5-6。
[1]Keynes J M. The General Theory of Employment , Interest and Money[M].London:Macmillan and CO,1936.
[2]Friedman M. The role of monetary policy[J].American Economic Review,1968.
[3]Lucas R E. Expectations and the neutrality of money[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1972.
[4]Hicks. Mr. Keynes and the“Classic”[J],in Econometrica, 1937.
[5]Rorbert S Pindyck, Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts [M].McGraw-Hill, 1998, 72-86.
[6]维普资讯.斯蒂芬·罗奇:中国经济重在控外需促内需[J].中国经济信息,2006年第18期:32～33.
[7]司春林,王安宇.宏观经济学——中国经济分析[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002.
[8]庞皓.计量经济学[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2002.
[9]樊纲,张晓晶.面向新世纪的中国宏观经济政策[M].北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2000.
[10]李子奈.计量经济学——方法和应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1992,162-167.
[11]唐兴国.计量经济学——理论、方法和模型[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1988,198-200.
[12]钟瑛. 20世纪90年代以来的中国宏观经济政策调整[J].当代中国史研究,2005年第4期:101～107.
[13]庞明川.转轨以来中国宏观调控与经济发展[J].财经问题研究,2006年第2期:11～19.
[14]中国人民大学经济学研究所.中国宏观经济形势与政策:2005-2006年[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006年第1期: 5～10.
[15]刘伟,苏剑.供给管理与我国现阶段的宏观调控[J].经济研究,2007年第2期:4～15.
[16]刘溶沧,马珺.论宏观经济调控的稳定目标及其在中国的实现对策[J].宏观经济研究,2001年第9期:26～31.
[17]陈东琪.经济温和调整阶段的总体判断与宏观调控着力点[J].学术研究,2005年第8期:5～9.
[18]陈端计.中国55年来宏观经济调控的制度变迁分析[J].周口师范学院学报,2004年第4期:58～62.
[19]吴信如.开放经济的IS—LM模型和我国目前宏观经济政策选择[J].华东师范大学学报:哲社版,1999年第6期:63～67,93.
[20]李义平.需求管理与供给管理——宏观经济管理的两种模式及其理论基础[J].中国工业经济,1999年第12期:11～15.
[21]周学.从凯恩斯主义的失误看新需求管理理论[J].经济评论,1998年第2期:15～22.
[22]郑英隆.试析凯恩斯的有效需求理论及其方法论[J].中南财经大学学报,1997年第3期:87～89.
[23]方福前.IS-M模型的新发展[J].教学与研究,2004年第8期:46～52.
[24]梁红,乔虹,宋宇.中国人民银行将一年期存贷款利率分别上调至3.33%和6.84%,并将存款准备金率上调至11.5%[J].China Economics Quarterly中国经济研究季刊, 2 nd Quarter 2007:36.
[25]任太增,IS-LM模型与宏观经济政策选择[J].社会科学辑刊,2000年第4期:77～79.
[26]维普资讯.网民热议扩大内需[J].瞭望新闻周刊,2006年第52期:9.
[27]罗雨泽.我国FDI、经济增长与国内投资结构关系的实证研究—基于协整方法(1979-2004)[J].当代财经,2006年第3期:97～103.
[28]李桂萍.中国1998年以来财政货币政策实施效应的分析[D].内蒙古:内蒙古大学,2004年5月.
[29]国务院发展研究中心课题组.中国宏观经济政策的反思及今后的取向[J].维普资讯:11～21.
[30]中国统计年鉴编辑部.中国统计年鉴2006.国家统计局出版社,2006年9月.
[31]参考网站:人大经济论坛,维普资讯,中国资讯行.