考虑风能接入的多场景电网规划及其风险评估
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摘要
电网规划是电网发展的重要依托,其任务是按照规划期间的电源和负荷增长情况,在已有的电网结构基础上,合理选择扩建线路以符合电力系统安全运行和经济性最佳。针对电力市场环境下,更多的不确定性因素将会带来新的挑战,而且随着风电并网,也会给电网规划带来更多的风险。如何处理电力市场环境下的各种不确定性因素,如何评估电网规划的风险因素,如何更好地评价电网规划结果是当下急需解决的问题。
本文以上述问题作为研究目标,充分总结与吸收前人的研究成果,提出用多场景规划技术处理电力市场环境下的各种不确定性因素,通过对电网的元件可靠性模拟评估电网的风险因素,结合综合经济分析方法得到符合经济性及概率风险性的电网规划方案。
首先,对电网规划的研究内容和现状进行阐述,从电力供需分析、不确定因素模拟、电网规划方法、电网规划求解方法和风能接入的风险研究现状几个方面进行探讨,提出了本文规划中的处理方法。其次,应用蒙特卡罗理论模拟风电出力功率的波动性,并将它的不确定性因素用多场景技术构造出多个场景,运用遗传算法进行灵活电网规划,求解出三类过负荷率下的5种电网规划方案,再将不同的方案应用到不同的场景进行分析。再次,提出电网风险评估理论,应用元件停运模型分析电网概率风险,并用简单的电网算例阐述风险评估理论。最后,本文通过改进的18节点系统算例进行多场景电网规划,然后对待选规划方案进行风险评估,确定其风险概率及风险费用,综合分析得到符合预期目标的最优电网规划方案。
Planning is vital for the development of power system, mainly aims to choose appropriate circuitry expansion so as to achieve the optimization in the safe operation and economical efficiency of the electric power system. As in the electricity market environment, more uncertainty to the grid planning will bring new challenges, and with new energy access into grid, power grid planning will lead to more risk. How to handle a variety of uncertainties in electricity market environment, how to evaluate risk factors for network planning, and how to better evaluate the results of network planning have become current pressing problems.
With the fully study and absorbability of the previous results, this paper takes the issue before as a goal and has proposed multi-scenario planning to deal with uncertainties under electricity market environment. Using the component reliability to simulate assessment of the risk factors in grid, combined with comprehensive economic analysis, at last, economic and reliable grid planning is found.
Firstly, it has described the content and research status of network planning, from several aspects of the power supply and demand analysis, uncertainty modeling, network planning, network programming method and the risk of wind access, and also put approach treatment. Secondly, Monte Carlo simulation is used to the application of wind output power, it takes the wind output power as multiple scenes, which are solved through the genetic algorithm for flexible network planning, then with different scenarios applying to analyze different planning. Thirdly, it has proposed risk assessment theory, which uses components outage model to analysis grid probability risk and a simple example is described. Finally, the changed 18-node system is applied in multi-scenario network planning, the election planning are treatment for risk assessment so as to determine the risk probability and risk costs, at last, the targeted optimal network planning is comprehensively made out.
本文以上述问题作为研究目标,充分总结与吸收前人的研究成果,提出用多场景规划技术处理电力市场环境下的各种不确定性因素,通过对电网的元件可靠性模拟评估电网的风险因素,结合综合经济分析方法得到符合经济性及概率风险性的电网规划方案。
首先,对电网规划的研究内容和现状进行阐述,从电力供需分析、不确定因素模拟、电网规划方法、电网规划求解方法和风能接入的风险研究现状几个方面进行探讨,提出了本文规划中的处理方法。其次,应用蒙特卡罗理论模拟风电出力功率的波动性,并将它的不确定性因素用多场景技术构造出多个场景,运用遗传算法进行灵活电网规划,求解出三类过负荷率下的5种电网规划方案,再将不同的方案应用到不同的场景进行分析。再次,提出电网风险评估理论,应用元件停运模型分析电网概率风险,并用简单的电网算例阐述风险评估理论。最后,本文通过改进的18节点系统算例进行多场景电网规划,然后对待选规划方案进行风险评估,确定其风险概率及风险费用,综合分析得到符合预期目标的最优电网规划方案。
Planning is vital for the development of power system, mainly aims to choose appropriate circuitry expansion so as to achieve the optimization in the safe operation and economical efficiency of the electric power system. As in the electricity market environment, more uncertainty to the grid planning will bring new challenges, and with new energy access into grid, power grid planning will lead to more risk. How to handle a variety of uncertainties in electricity market environment, how to evaluate risk factors for network planning, and how to better evaluate the results of network planning have become current pressing problems.
With the fully study and absorbability of the previous results, this paper takes the issue before as a goal and has proposed multi-scenario planning to deal with uncertainties under electricity market environment. Using the component reliability to simulate assessment of the risk factors in grid, combined with comprehensive economic analysis, at last, economic and reliable grid planning is found.
Firstly, it has described the content and research status of network planning, from several aspects of the power supply and demand analysis, uncertainty modeling, network planning, network programming method and the risk of wind access, and also put approach treatment. Secondly, Monte Carlo simulation is used to the application of wind output power, it takes the wind output power as multiple scenes, which are solved through the genetic algorithm for flexible network planning, then with different scenarios applying to analyze different planning. Thirdly, it has proposed risk assessment theory, which uses components outage model to analysis grid probability risk and a simple example is described. Finally, the changed 18-node system is applied in multi-scenario network planning, the election planning are treatment for risk assessment so as to determine the risk probability and risk costs, at last, the targeted optimal network planning is comprehensively made out.
引文
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