基于改进型机会成本法的交通应急救援资源派遣策略研究
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摘要
“公路突发事件预警与应急处置快速化,应急装备资源配置现代化”是当前公路交通安全领域的热点方向,其中,如何在最短时间内、最低成本条件下将应急救援资源派遣到达突发事件现场,实施救援处置,最大限度减少人财物损失,已经成为国内外交通安全研究的重点内容。本文依托港珠澳大桥三地紧急救援联动项目,开展了交通应急资源派遣策略的研究,具体工作如下：
(1)针对港珠澳大桥超长桥隧结合特点,以模拟突发事件为对象,分别采用匈牙利法、直接成本法、机会成本法进行了救援时效研究；综合分析了3种方法的适用条件；根据路网内突发交通事件对应急资源的稳定性和可靠性需求,从全局最优角度出发,选择机会成本法作为港珠澳大桥的救援资源派遣策略。
(2)针对现有机会成本法中所设定的道路交通状况、救援车速与实际救援过程存在较大差异的问题,综合考虑道路条件、事故类型对救援时间和救援成本的影响,为了体现救援车速对直接成本的影响,引入了削弱救援速度概率μ,提出了一种改进型机会成本法模型；并采用专家打分法建立了各种影响因素对潜在事故概率P和削弱救援速度概率μ的权重评价体系。
(3)针对潜在事故概率、影响救援车辆行驶速度因素权重存在一定的不确定性和难以量化的特征,提出了基于遗传算法和BP神经网络算法的GA-BPNN组合模型,利用遗传算法优化BP神经网络的连接权值和阀值,将测试样本输入BP网络进行计算分析,得到潜在事故概率P及削弱救援车速概率μ的优化数值。
(4)基于MATLAB软件平台开发改进型机会成本算法与GA-BPNN组合模型程序,将优化后的潜在事故概率P及削弱救援车速概率μ代入改进型机会成本法进行时效计算,所得救援资源派遣策略与原模型相比,结果证明改进型机会成本法有效可行,救援时效性更好、救援资源利用率更高。
"Rapidly disposal of expressway incident warning and emergency and achievement of the emergency equipment resources" is currently a hot area of Expressway Traffic Safety directions. How to dispatch the emergency rescue resources to accident sites in the shortest time with lowest cost, implementation of the rescue to minimize property damage has become the main focus of traffic safety at home and abroad. The paper relys on the "HongKong ZhuHai Macao Bridge" emergency linkage project, carried out study of the traffic emergency rescue resources strategy. The specific works are as follows:
(1) Concerned aboat super-long tunnel combination characteristic of "H-Z-M Bridge", through aging analysis for the Hungarian method, Direct cost method and Opportunity Cost Method, comprehensive analysis of the applicable conditions of the3kinds of the rescue resources dispatch method. According to the demand of the unexpected events on the road network, stability and reliability for emergency resources are very important, Based on the global optimum angle, select Opportunity Cost Method as rescue resources dispatch strategy for "H-Z-M Bridge".
(2) Against the problem of there are large differences between the road traffic conditions, rescue speed and the actual rescue process which are set by the Opportunity Cost Method, considering the effect of the road conditions, accident type on rescue time and rescue costs, In order to reflect the impact of the rescue vehicle speed on the direct costs, introduct the probability of weakening rescue speed, proposed a improved Opportunity Cost Method Model, and uses expert scoring method to establish the weight of evaluation system of the probability of various factors to the potential accidents and the probability of weakening rescue speed.
(3) Aiming at the probability of potential accident and the factor of influencing rescue vehicle speed weigh have the characteristics of some uncertainty and difficult to quantify, this paper proposed the combination of GA-BPNN model that based on genetic algorithm and BP neural network algorithm, and used genetic algorithm to optimize weight and threshold of BP neural network connection, then, the test sample were calculated and analyzed at BP neural network, finally, acquired the optimized values that are the probability of potential accidents and the probability of weakening rescue vehicle speed.
(4) Based on Matlab software platform, program of the combined model of improved opportunity cost method and GA-BPNN is developed, and the optimized probability of potential accidents and weaking rescue speed are substituted into the improved Opportunity Cost Method to calculate the aging. The results of camparing the rescue resource dispatch strategy with the original model prove that improved Opportunity Cost Method is effective and feasible, rescue-time-efficiency is better, the availability of rescue resource is higher.
(1)针对港珠澳大桥超长桥隧结合特点,以模拟突发事件为对象,分别采用匈牙利法、直接成本法、机会成本法进行了救援时效研究；综合分析了3种方法的适用条件；根据路网内突发交通事件对应急资源的稳定性和可靠性需求,从全局最优角度出发,选择机会成本法作为港珠澳大桥的救援资源派遣策略。
(2)针对现有机会成本法中所设定的道路交通状况、救援车速与实际救援过程存在较大差异的问题,综合考虑道路条件、事故类型对救援时间和救援成本的影响,为了体现救援车速对直接成本的影响,引入了削弱救援速度概率μ,提出了一种改进型机会成本法模型；并采用专家打分法建立了各种影响因素对潜在事故概率P和削弱救援速度概率μ的权重评价体系。
(3)针对潜在事故概率、影响救援车辆行驶速度因素权重存在一定的不确定性和难以量化的特征,提出了基于遗传算法和BP神经网络算法的GA-BPNN组合模型,利用遗传算法优化BP神经网络的连接权值和阀值,将测试样本输入BP网络进行计算分析,得到潜在事故概率P及削弱救援车速概率μ的优化数值。
(4)基于MATLAB软件平台开发改进型机会成本算法与GA-BPNN组合模型程序,将优化后的潜在事故概率P及削弱救援车速概率μ代入改进型机会成本法进行时效计算,所得救援资源派遣策略与原模型相比,结果证明改进型机会成本法有效可行,救援时效性更好、救援资源利用率更高。
"Rapidly disposal of expressway incident warning and emergency and achievement of the emergency equipment resources" is currently a hot area of Expressway Traffic Safety directions. How to dispatch the emergency rescue resources to accident sites in the shortest time with lowest cost, implementation of the rescue to minimize property damage has become the main focus of traffic safety at home and abroad. The paper relys on the "HongKong ZhuHai Macao Bridge" emergency linkage project, carried out study of the traffic emergency rescue resources strategy. The specific works are as follows:
(1) Concerned aboat super-long tunnel combination characteristic of "H-Z-M Bridge", through aging analysis for the Hungarian method, Direct cost method and Opportunity Cost Method, comprehensive analysis of the applicable conditions of the3kinds of the rescue resources dispatch method. According to the demand of the unexpected events on the road network, stability and reliability for emergency resources are very important, Based on the global optimum angle, select Opportunity Cost Method as rescue resources dispatch strategy for "H-Z-M Bridge".
(2) Against the problem of there are large differences between the road traffic conditions, rescue speed and the actual rescue process which are set by the Opportunity Cost Method, considering the effect of the road conditions, accident type on rescue time and rescue costs, In order to reflect the impact of the rescue vehicle speed on the direct costs, introduct the probability of weakening rescue speed, proposed a improved Opportunity Cost Method Model, and uses expert scoring method to establish the weight of evaluation system of the probability of various factors to the potential accidents and the probability of weakening rescue speed.
(3) Aiming at the probability of potential accident and the factor of influencing rescue vehicle speed weigh have the characteristics of some uncertainty and difficult to quantify, this paper proposed the combination of GA-BPNN model that based on genetic algorithm and BP neural network algorithm, and used genetic algorithm to optimize weight and threshold of BP neural network connection, then, the test sample were calculated and analyzed at BP neural network, finally, acquired the optimized values that are the probability of potential accidents and the probability of weakening rescue vehicle speed.
(4) Based on Matlab software platform, program of the combined model of improved opportunity cost method and GA-BPNN is developed, and the optimized probability of potential accidents and weaking rescue speed are substituted into the improved Opportunity Cost Method to calculate the aging. The results of camparing the rescue resource dispatch strategy with the original model prove that improved Opportunity Cost Method is effective and feasible, rescue-time-efficiency is better, the availability of rescue resource is higher.
引文
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