农业产业结构演变对劳动力吸纳的定量分析
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摘要
产业发展与城镇化之间关联密切,二者协调共进将为劳动力就业提供更大空间。本文通过对安徽省三大产业吸纳劳动力就业能力进行了分析,得出了目前农业仍然是安徽省劳动力吸纳主要渠道的结论。利用了投入产出法对安徽省农业行业内部的产业发展及行业就业进行了初步分析,得出了未来安徽省农业产业化的必要性及具体操作方法,为安徽省产业化与城镇化发展提供了若干意见。本论文分为三大部分：第一部分：安徽省城镇化与产业化发展现状及产业对劳动力吸纳能力；第二部分：安徽省第一产业内部产业发展情况及产业内劳动力就业；第三部分：安徽省加快农业产业化的路径探析。
第一部分主要介绍了产业结构发展趋势及与城镇化的互动关系,介绍了产业化与城镇化的理论演化历程,明晰了安徽省经济发展产业结构是以传统产业为主导的,未来一段时间富余劳动力有扩大之势。分析指出,第二、第三产业吸纳劳动力能力下降,产业发展也急需新的增长点、突破点,目前农业产业化发展面临机遇,要增加对农业的投入力度,促进其工业化发展。
第二部分主要介绍了第一产业内部的产业发展态势,利用投入产出法分析了哪些农业产业更能吸纳劳动力就地就业；哪些产业的产品附加值高,有利于提高产业产值；哪些产业辐射能力更强,能增加产业链的环节,促进更多相关产业的发展开发。
第三部分主要结合皖江城市带来的产业发展机遇和城镇化发展机遇,结合安徽省农业产业化发展现状,宏观分析了安徽省农业产业化的策略。目的是为农业产业化在促进安徽城镇化发展出路上提供理论上的支持。
产业化与城镇化互动关系,产业化拉动劳动力就业问题,国内外学者都已经做了大量的研究,但是安徽省的产业发展现状和面临和问题又其自身特点,产业化发展促进城镇化,但是具体哪些农业产业促进城镇化发展,拉动劳动力就业的实际能力尚处于空白领域。在安徽省经济亟待取得突破,皖江城市带又给产业发展带来契机的形势下,找出适合本省产业与城镇化发展的路径是很有意义的。但是在研究的过程中由于技术、资料方面的限制,再加上宏观把握经济问题的能力有待提高,文章的在研究的深度和广度方面都不够,在以后的学习和研究中要继续完善,使之真正为安徽省农业发展发挥作用。
Industrial development and urbanization are closely related, and the good coordination for each other can provide a wilder space for the employment of the labor force in rural areas. The author of this paper obtains agricultural is still being the main channel of the employment in Anhui province on the bases of the analysis on a capacity of agriculture, industry and the tertiary industry. In addition, the author also makes out the further development of the primary agriculture is of a great necessity and puts forth some proper specific methods to promote the development of it, by using the Input-Output to make a primate analysis of the domestic state and the availability of the employment of the agricultural industry in Anhui province. Simply, the paper can be departed into three parts:
The first part is used to elaborate the quality of circumstances of industrial development and urbanization in Anhui province, and the capacity of the employment to the development of the industry.
The second part is about the domestic quality of circumstances of the agricultural industry, and the internal availability of the employment of the agricultural industry of Anhui province.
The third part is the analyses of how to accelerate the development of the agricultural industrialization in Anhui province.
Specifically, the first part is an introduction of the interactive relationship between the structural development of the industrialization and the urbanization. Besides, the traditional industries are playing the leading role economically in the development of Anhui province, while the surplus labors will be showing a state of continuous growth. In this period, the author try to pointing that the industrial industry and the service industry's capacity of absorbing labors from rural areas has decreased, and the development of the industry needs a great growth and breakthrough. Presently, the agricultural development is facing its opportunities, therefore, it's important to increase the investment in agriculture and promote its industrialization.
The second part is used to elaborate the internal circumstances of the agricultural industry, and specifically which departments of the agriculture are really strongly absorbing the surplus labors from countryside; which departments'products are of high added value; which industry are of stronger radiation, and be more available to rich the produce-chains, and be of greater ability to promote the related industries to be explored.
The third part is mainly explaining the chances that City Belt of Wanjiang brings to the industrialization and the urbanization of Anhui province. Combining with the reality of the development of the agriculture, the author analyses the development of agriculture on macro-level, to provide the theoretical supports for making a breakthrough to promote the urbanization of Anhui province.
The interactive relationship between the industrialization and urbanization, and the issues about absorbing surplus labors through accelerating the development of industry, has been studied by the researchers from both domestic and abroad. However, the development of the industrialization of Anhui province has its own characteristics and problems, and which specific agricultural industries can accelerate the development of the urbanization is still the blank field. As the development of economics of Anhui province is imperative and the setting of Wanjiang City Belt brings an opportunity, search a proper way for the industrialization and the urbanization is meaningful. Because of the lack of capacity when met technical difficulties in the process of study, the paper should be consummate in depth and breadth to play a role in the development of agriculture in Anhui province.
第一部分主要介绍了产业结构发展趋势及与城镇化的互动关系,介绍了产业化与城镇化的理论演化历程,明晰了安徽省经济发展产业结构是以传统产业为主导的,未来一段时间富余劳动力有扩大之势。分析指出,第二、第三产业吸纳劳动力能力下降,产业发展也急需新的增长点、突破点,目前农业产业化发展面临机遇,要增加对农业的投入力度,促进其工业化发展。
第二部分主要介绍了第一产业内部的产业发展态势,利用投入产出法分析了哪些农业产业更能吸纳劳动力就地就业；哪些产业的产品附加值高,有利于提高产业产值；哪些产业辐射能力更强,能增加产业链的环节,促进更多相关产业的发展开发。
第三部分主要结合皖江城市带来的产业发展机遇和城镇化发展机遇,结合安徽省农业产业化发展现状,宏观分析了安徽省农业产业化的策略。目的是为农业产业化在促进安徽城镇化发展出路上提供理论上的支持。
产业化与城镇化互动关系,产业化拉动劳动力就业问题,国内外学者都已经做了大量的研究,但是安徽省的产业发展现状和面临和问题又其自身特点,产业化发展促进城镇化,但是具体哪些农业产业促进城镇化发展,拉动劳动力就业的实际能力尚处于空白领域。在安徽省经济亟待取得突破,皖江城市带又给产业发展带来契机的形势下,找出适合本省产业与城镇化发展的路径是很有意义的。但是在研究的过程中由于技术、资料方面的限制,再加上宏观把握经济问题的能力有待提高,文章的在研究的深度和广度方面都不够,在以后的学习和研究中要继续完善,使之真正为安徽省农业发展发挥作用。
Industrial development and urbanization are closely related, and the good coordination for each other can provide a wilder space for the employment of the labor force in rural areas. The author of this paper obtains agricultural is still being the main channel of the employment in Anhui province on the bases of the analysis on a capacity of agriculture, industry and the tertiary industry. In addition, the author also makes out the further development of the primary agriculture is of a great necessity and puts forth some proper specific methods to promote the development of it, by using the Input-Output to make a primate analysis of the domestic state and the availability of the employment of the agricultural industry in Anhui province. Simply, the paper can be departed into three parts:
The first part is used to elaborate the quality of circumstances of industrial development and urbanization in Anhui province, and the capacity of the employment to the development of the industry.
The second part is about the domestic quality of circumstances of the agricultural industry, and the internal availability of the employment of the agricultural industry of Anhui province.
The third part is the analyses of how to accelerate the development of the agricultural industrialization in Anhui province.
Specifically, the first part is an introduction of the interactive relationship between the structural development of the industrialization and the urbanization. Besides, the traditional industries are playing the leading role economically in the development of Anhui province, while the surplus labors will be showing a state of continuous growth. In this period, the author try to pointing that the industrial industry and the service industry's capacity of absorbing labors from rural areas has decreased, and the development of the industry needs a great growth and breakthrough. Presently, the agricultural development is facing its opportunities, therefore, it's important to increase the investment in agriculture and promote its industrialization.
The second part is used to elaborate the internal circumstances of the agricultural industry, and specifically which departments of the agriculture are really strongly absorbing the surplus labors from countryside; which departments'products are of high added value; which industry are of stronger radiation, and be more available to rich the produce-chains, and be of greater ability to promote the related industries to be explored.
The third part is mainly explaining the chances that City Belt of Wanjiang brings to the industrialization and the urbanization of Anhui province. Combining with the reality of the development of the agriculture, the author analyses the development of agriculture on macro-level, to provide the theoretical supports for making a breakthrough to promote the urbanization of Anhui province.
The interactive relationship between the industrialization and urbanization, and the issues about absorbing surplus labors through accelerating the development of industry, has been studied by the researchers from both domestic and abroad. However, the development of the industrialization of Anhui province has its own characteristics and problems, and which specific agricultural industries can accelerate the development of the urbanization is still the blank field. As the development of economics of Anhui province is imperative and the setting of Wanjiang City Belt brings an opportunity, search a proper way for the industrialization and the urbanization is meaningful. Because of the lack of capacity when met technical difficulties in the process of study, the paper should be consummate in depth and breadth to play a role in the development of agriculture in Anhui province.
引文
1申延平.中国农村社会转型论[C]. 河南大学出版社,2005：97.
1刘畅.农村社会学[C].华中科技大学出版社.2007：156.
1申延平在其《中国农村社会转型论》中对西方主要发达国家的城镇化序幕做了深入研究。
2发展经济学家托达罗对发展中国家的农村劳动力转移提出了自己的观点。
1西蒙.库兹列茨.现代经济增长：事实与思考[J].美国经济评论,1973(6).
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1文章借用了物理学概念耦合来阐明城镇化与产业化的紧密关系。
1肖桂云、张蓉在其《农村社会学》中尤其强调了“就业优先”的观点。
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1刘畅.农村社会学[C].华中科技大学出版社.2007：156.
1申延平在其《中国农村社会转型论》中对西方主要发达国家的城镇化序幕做了深入研究。
2发展经济学家托达罗对发展中国家的农村劳动力转移提出了自己的观点。
1西蒙.库兹列茨.现代经济增长：事实与思考[J].美国经济评论,1973(6).
2沃尔特.威尔科克斯.美国农业[M].北京农业出版社,1979.
3姜爱林.城镇化与工业化互动关系研究[J].财贸研究,2004.
1喻桂华、张春煜.中国的产业结构与就业问题[J].当代经济科学,2004(9).
2宋湛.影响我国非农产业就业的三种效应分析[J].人口与经济.2005(5)
3江晓娟、李辉.服务务业与中国经济[J].经济研究.2004(1).
4陈自芳.经济增长与第三产业瓶颈[J].经济学家.2001(3).
5郁义鸿、黄云峰.服务业对中国经济发展与结构转变贡献的一项实证研究[J].复旦学报,2003(10).
1曾志伟、王铁骊.产业延展·性劳动力转化—我国农业剩余劳动力再就业的近期目标[J].商业研究,2001(1)
1于刃刚.经济学动态.经济学动态杂志编辑部,1996(08).
1李悦.产业经济学[J].中国人民大学出版社,1999(07).
1薛乔.从比较优势理论到新贸易理论—论战略性贸易政策的理论基础[J].吉林大学,2007(05).
2李辉文.现代比较优势理论研究.中国人民大学出版社[C],2006(01).
1陈冬.新型工业化理论与实证分析[J].社会科学文献出版社,2006(1)
1肖桂云、张蓉.农村社会学[C].中国审计出版社、中国社会出版社,2001.
1文章借用了物理学概念耦合来阐明城镇化与产业化的紧密关系。
1肖桂云、张蓉在其《农村社会学》中尤其强调了“就业优先”的观点。
[1]朱启臻.农业社会学"Rural Sociology" [C].社会科学文献出版社,2009.
[2]李仲生.人口经济学[C].清华大学出版社,2006.
[3]申延平.中国农村社会转型论[C].河南大学出版社,2005.
[4]肖桂云、张蓉.农村社会学[C].中国审计出版社、中国社会出版社,2001.
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