基于K线博弈的民航收益管理
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摘要
收益管理的关键在于市场细化、需求预测的精确以及此基础上座位的优化分配。然而,现有的民航收益管理研究及系统在市场细化方面仅将票价分为多个等级,并未达到连续的彻底细化;需求预测更难准确,一方面是季节因素、竞争环境、经济环境等常规因素的制约,另一方面有人们心理因素、随机因素、突发事件等不可预见因素的制约,另外,许多历史数据并未真实反映旅客需求,加上一些航班历史数据的缺失,这一切导致现有研究方案几乎不可能准确预测民航旅客需求;当预测精度缺乏时,必将导致座位存量分配不合理,进一步导致收益管理效益降低。加上目前国际和国内民航机票的定价和销售都缺乏旅客的主动参与,因而都不能称为完全的市场化。目前已经研制的收益管理系统归纳起来都是一个模式,一直没有一个创新的、更为有效的系统出现,在目前大家所共知的销售模式下,其研究和应用已很难取得突破。
为解决以上弊端,研制更为有效的、优于传统收益管理系统的新一代收益管理系统,以增加航班收益,本文以几点创新思维和研究方法开展了研究:1、提出了一种全新的研究思想和机票销售模式,即基于K线研究的博弈销售,用简单的方法解决了诸多复杂问题。该研究思想将证券交易的K线技术引入民航收益管理,将现行的固定票价改为浮动定价,使机票定价涵盖了整个价格区间,而不是区间内的若干点,达到了市场的彻底细化。2、将航空公司单向定价机制改为同时具有航空公司定价与乘客报价的双向定价机制,达到进一步的市场化,乘客的报价使原先无法得到实际需求的问题得以解决。3、将K线趋势图作为博弈和预测平台,以直观反映价格波动和市场变化情况,同时根据历史数据和当前市场变化来校准预测,即便在缺乏历史数据的情况下也可以及时应对当前各种市场因素的扰动,实时吻合市场需求。4、提出了一种仿真算法进行需求预测,研究同时将机票浮动定价与座位分配控制相结合,给出两者实时动态调整的优化方法。5、针对民航收益管理的特点,提出一种具有制导性的整数编码遗传算法以加快收敛速度,以简单的运算,根据需求变化实时、快速调整价格与座位存量分配。6、提出虚拟舱位容量概念,以减少虚假订票的影响。
试验结果显示,所研究的方法能刺激需求,提高航班座位利用率,并使航空公司收益提高10%以上的收益。
Segmenting markets, accurate forecasts and seat allocation are the essential elements of airlines revenue management. However, the available researches and systems of revenue management only do a few of different fare classes about segmenting markets, can't attain a target of successive thoroughly segmenting. The accurate demand forecasting is more difficult, on the one hand, seasonal factors, competitive actions and economic environment are hurdles of it, on the other hand, it is restricted by unpredictable factors about people's psychology factors, random factors and the abrupt event and so on. In addition, most of historical demand data is censored, so, the available research ways can nearly not accurately forecast demand now. Poor demand forecasting lead to inadequate inventory control, further lead to cuts down revenue performance. In addition, now pricing and sale of international and domestic passenger ticket lack the initiative participating of travelers, as a result, it can not be called the complete marketplaceization. The existing revenue management systems are in the same pattern, innovative and more valid system has not arisen always, in the existing sale pattern, the researches and applications of it is hard to meet the breakthrough.
To resolve foregoing faults, to develop more valid revenue management system that is superior to traditional system and lift the flight revenue, a few of innovative thinking and researches were proposed in this dissertation: 1. It suggested a new research idea and a new passenger ticket sale pattern which is gaming sales based on K line chart research, it resolve many complex problems in the way of the simple means. K line chart technique of securities deal is applied to revenue management in this research idea, static pricing has be changed to dynamic pricing, so the passenger ticket price contains the entire price area, the marketplace is segmented Thoroughly. 2. The unidirectional pricing of airline is changed to bi-directional pricing of the airline pricing and passenger's quoted price, to get further marketplaceization, the quoted price of passenger may resolve the actual demand problem that can not to obtain formerly. 3. As means of gaming and forecasting, the K line chart can display visually waving of price and changing of market, moreover, it can calibrate forecasts on the basis of historical data and the market situation, even if lacking historical data, it also may cope with interference of market factors, coincide the real time market demand. 4. A simulating algorithm was proposed to forecast demand in this paper. Models were proposed to integrate the dynamical pricing and inventory control that their optimization methods of real-time correction were given. 5. In view of the civil aviation revenue management feature, a modified integer coding genetic algorithm with guidance was used to speed up the convergence rate, with the simple calculations, which pricing and seat allocation get speedily real-time correction on the basis of demand. 6. The concept of“virtual inventory”was presented, which masks interfere of sham booking.
The test data shows that the method presented in the paper can stimulate demand and increase seat utilization ratio, the flight revenue can be increased over 10%.
为解决以上弊端,研制更为有效的、优于传统收益管理系统的新一代收益管理系统,以增加航班收益,本文以几点创新思维和研究方法开展了研究:1、提出了一种全新的研究思想和机票销售模式,即基于K线研究的博弈销售,用简单的方法解决了诸多复杂问题。该研究思想将证券交易的K线技术引入民航收益管理,将现行的固定票价改为浮动定价,使机票定价涵盖了整个价格区间,而不是区间内的若干点,达到了市场的彻底细化。2、将航空公司单向定价机制改为同时具有航空公司定价与乘客报价的双向定价机制,达到进一步的市场化,乘客的报价使原先无法得到实际需求的问题得以解决。3、将K线趋势图作为博弈和预测平台,以直观反映价格波动和市场变化情况,同时根据历史数据和当前市场变化来校准预测,即便在缺乏历史数据的情况下也可以及时应对当前各种市场因素的扰动,实时吻合市场需求。4、提出了一种仿真算法进行需求预测,研究同时将机票浮动定价与座位分配控制相结合,给出两者实时动态调整的优化方法。5、针对民航收益管理的特点,提出一种具有制导性的整数编码遗传算法以加快收敛速度,以简单的运算,根据需求变化实时、快速调整价格与座位存量分配。6、提出虚拟舱位容量概念,以减少虚假订票的影响。
试验结果显示,所研究的方法能刺激需求,提高航班座位利用率,并使航空公司收益提高10%以上的收益。
Segmenting markets, accurate forecasts and seat allocation are the essential elements of airlines revenue management. However, the available researches and systems of revenue management only do a few of different fare classes about segmenting markets, can't attain a target of successive thoroughly segmenting. The accurate demand forecasting is more difficult, on the one hand, seasonal factors, competitive actions and economic environment are hurdles of it, on the other hand, it is restricted by unpredictable factors about people's psychology factors, random factors and the abrupt event and so on. In addition, most of historical demand data is censored, so, the available research ways can nearly not accurately forecast demand now. Poor demand forecasting lead to inadequate inventory control, further lead to cuts down revenue performance. In addition, now pricing and sale of international and domestic passenger ticket lack the initiative participating of travelers, as a result, it can not be called the complete marketplaceization. The existing revenue management systems are in the same pattern, innovative and more valid system has not arisen always, in the existing sale pattern, the researches and applications of it is hard to meet the breakthrough.
To resolve foregoing faults, to develop more valid revenue management system that is superior to traditional system and lift the flight revenue, a few of innovative thinking and researches were proposed in this dissertation: 1. It suggested a new research idea and a new passenger ticket sale pattern which is gaming sales based on K line chart research, it resolve many complex problems in the way of the simple means. K line chart technique of securities deal is applied to revenue management in this research idea, static pricing has be changed to dynamic pricing, so the passenger ticket price contains the entire price area, the marketplace is segmented Thoroughly. 2. The unidirectional pricing of airline is changed to bi-directional pricing of the airline pricing and passenger's quoted price, to get further marketplaceization, the quoted price of passenger may resolve the actual demand problem that can not to obtain formerly. 3. As means of gaming and forecasting, the K line chart can display visually waving of price and changing of market, moreover, it can calibrate forecasts on the basis of historical data and the market situation, even if lacking historical data, it also may cope with interference of market factors, coincide the real time market demand. 4. A simulating algorithm was proposed to forecast demand in this paper. Models were proposed to integrate the dynamical pricing and inventory control that their optimization methods of real-time correction were given. 5. In view of the civil aviation revenue management feature, a modified integer coding genetic algorithm with guidance was used to speed up the convergence rate, with the simple calculations, which pricing and seat allocation get speedily real-time correction on the basis of demand. 6. The concept of“virtual inventory”was presented, which masks interfere of sham booking.
The test data shows that the method presented in the paper can stimulate demand and increase seat utilization ratio, the flight revenue can be increased over 10%.
引文
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