政府引导企业科技投入的模型分析与实证研究
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摘要
人类社会的发展历程表明,科技进步是国家经济增长的主要源泉。随着市场竞争的日益全球化,研究与发展对于促进一国的经济增长,提高国家核心竞争力,培养企业技术创新能力的作用越来越明显。要大力推动科技事业发展,必须首先加大科技投入的力度。政府是全社会R&D投入的主导,企业是R&D投入的主体。在经济快速发展的巨大推动下,知识经济一体化进程向更深层次发展,技术与经济的融合程度不断提高,对政府、企业等R&D投入提出了更为深刻的要求。因此,政府如何引导企业进行R&D活动近年来一直是经济管理领域的研究热点。当前政府R&D投入对企业R&D投入的作用主要集中在以下几个方面:政府R&D投入对企业R&D投入的诱导时滞、政府R&D投入对企业R&D投入的作用机制、政府R&D投入与企业R&D投入的博弈分析等。我国自改革开放以来,政府、企业及其它方面对R&D投入的力度不断加大,R&D投入一直呈现快速增长态势。但是,资金投入总量与发达国家相比仍有较大差距;科技投入体系也不尽完善。党的十七大上提出:加快转变经济发展方式、大力推进经济结构的战略性调整,更加注重提高自主创新能力,建设创新型国家。这就要求在现有基础上进一步提高政府对科技投入的引导、监督作用,为企业R&D投入创造良好的政策环境和激励机制,激发企业进行R&D活动的热情,使其增加R&D投入,提高整个社会的技术创新能力。
本文首先回顾了已有的理论方法,介绍了国内外的R&D投入现状。然后引入了相关性分析、类生产函数模型、GM(1,N)模型、博弈分析、系统动力学方法等,通过定性分析与定量分析的有机结合,主要研究了政府R&D投入对企业R&D投入的时滞分析、效应分析,并根据博弈论的思想探讨政府与企业的研发投向,最后通过构建系统动力学模型,根据预测结果调整现有的发展模式。并根据以上的研究结果,提出相应对策。
本文的创新性成果主要有如下几点:
(1)在政府科技投入对企业科技投入的时滞分析中,引入相关性分析,即通过分析历年政府科技投入与企业科技投入之间的相关系数矩阵,获取两者之间的影响时滞。
(2)在已有的相关研究的基础上进行改进,将类生产函数模型与G(1,N)模型同时引入到政府科技投入对企业科技投入影响的效应分析中,通过定量与定性的结合与两者的对比验证来获取更加可信的研究结论。
(3)基于博弈理论分析了信息对称情况下的最优激励合同与信息不对称情况下的最优激励合同。在假定政府和企业均为特定的风险规避型的效用函数下,推导出了最优风险分担方程,分四种情形对方程求解,得出了最优风险分担合同,并进行了案例计算。
(4)将系统动力学方法引入到政府引导企业科技投入的分析中。在分析了政府与企业科技投入的各个因素后,构建了政府—企业—社会科技投入系统的系统动力学模型,以现有数据为基础,对未来山东省的经济与科技投入进行了仿真模拟。并通过分析模拟结果对现有数据进行调整,构建合的科技投入体系。
The development of human society shows that science and technology progress is the country's main source of economic growth. With the increasing globalization of market competition, research and development plays a more and more significant role in the promotion of a country's economic growth, the advance of the national core competitiveness and enterprise's technological innovation ability. Therefore, R&D inputs must be increased to vigorously promote the development of science and technology. Due to the rapid development of economics, knowledge-based economy toward a deeper integration process is going to develop much more deeply, the degree of integration between technical and economic is enhancing, the input main bodies of research and development like government, enterprise and so on are put forward more profound requests. As a result, how to it has always been a hot topic in the field of economic management that how the government guides the enterprise in R&D activities in recent years. The current effect of the government's R&D investment to the enterprise's R&D investment mainly concentrated in the following areas: induced time-delay、mechanism and game analysis. The government, the enterprise and other aspects have been raising their input intensity since our country reformed and opened up. As a result, R&D investment is increasing. However, compared with the developed countries', there is still a wide gap in total amount of capital investment. And scientific and technological input system is not perfect now. On the Seventeenth Meeting of National People's Congress, some comments were also put forward, such as speeding up the transformation of economic development, vigorously promoting the strategic adjustment of economic structure, paying more attention to improve the capability of independent innovation and building an innovation-oriented country, which require to improve further guidance and supervision of government's investment in science and technology. These measures will create a favorable policy environment and incentive mechanism, stimulate the enterprise's passion on R&D activities, increase R&D input and then improve the whole society's ability of technological innovation.
This paper reviews the existing theoretical approaches and introduces the status of R&D activities at home and abroad at first. Then some methods, such as correlation analysis, quasi-production function model, GM (1, N) model, game analysis and system dynamics and so on, are introduced. The editor mainly makes a study of delay analysis, effect analysis in the government's investment to the enterprise's investment by means of the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and explores the research and development using direction of the government's and the enterprise's R & D investment according to game theory. At last, by build system dynamics model, existing development mode should be adjusted according to the prediction results of system dynamics. And counter measures are put forward in accordance with above research results..
The main innovative results of this paper are as follows:
In time lag analysis of the government's investment in science and technology to the enterprise's investment, correlation analysis is introduced, that is to say, by means of correlation coefficient matrix analysis between ever the government's and the enterprise's investment in science and technology we get time-delay effect between both of them.
We make the improvement based on existing correlative studies, which means that we introduce quasi-production function model and synchronously GM (1, N) model to effect analysis of the effect of the government's investment in science and technology to the enterprise's investment and get more incredible results by the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis and contrast verification of the both.
We analyze optimal incentive contract with symmetry information and with asymmetric information based on game theory. Assumed that the government and the enterprise are given functions of risk aversion, function is educed ,then the equation is solved by four divisions and optimal risk-sharing contract is gotten meanwhile we compute the example.
System dynamics is introduced to the analysis of the government's investment in science and technology to the enterprise's investment. After analyzing every aspect of the government's and the enterprise's investment, we build system dynamics model of government-enterprise-society input system in science and technology and simulate the future Shandong provincial economics and science input. the existing data is adjusted by analyzing simulation results, and build input system in science and technology.
本文首先回顾了已有的理论方法,介绍了国内外的R&D投入现状。然后引入了相关性分析、类生产函数模型、GM(1,N)模型、博弈分析、系统动力学方法等,通过定性分析与定量分析的有机结合,主要研究了政府R&D投入对企业R&D投入的时滞分析、效应分析,并根据博弈论的思想探讨政府与企业的研发投向,最后通过构建系统动力学模型,根据预测结果调整现有的发展模式。并根据以上的研究结果,提出相应对策。
本文的创新性成果主要有如下几点:
(1)在政府科技投入对企业科技投入的时滞分析中,引入相关性分析,即通过分析历年政府科技投入与企业科技投入之间的相关系数矩阵,获取两者之间的影响时滞。
(2)在已有的相关研究的基础上进行改进,将类生产函数模型与G(1,N)模型同时引入到政府科技投入对企业科技投入影响的效应分析中,通过定量与定性的结合与两者的对比验证来获取更加可信的研究结论。
(3)基于博弈理论分析了信息对称情况下的最优激励合同与信息不对称情况下的最优激励合同。在假定政府和企业均为特定的风险规避型的效用函数下,推导出了最优风险分担方程,分四种情形对方程求解,得出了最优风险分担合同,并进行了案例计算。
(4)将系统动力学方法引入到政府引导企业科技投入的分析中。在分析了政府与企业科技投入的各个因素后,构建了政府—企业—社会科技投入系统的系统动力学模型,以现有数据为基础,对未来山东省的经济与科技投入进行了仿真模拟。并通过分析模拟结果对现有数据进行调整,构建合的科技投入体系。
The development of human society shows that science and technology progress is the country's main source of economic growth. With the increasing globalization of market competition, research and development plays a more and more significant role in the promotion of a country's economic growth, the advance of the national core competitiveness and enterprise's technological innovation ability. Therefore, R&D inputs must be increased to vigorously promote the development of science and technology. Due to the rapid development of economics, knowledge-based economy toward a deeper integration process is going to develop much more deeply, the degree of integration between technical and economic is enhancing, the input main bodies of research and development like government, enterprise and so on are put forward more profound requests. As a result, how to it has always been a hot topic in the field of economic management that how the government guides the enterprise in R&D activities in recent years. The current effect of the government's R&D investment to the enterprise's R&D investment mainly concentrated in the following areas: induced time-delay、mechanism and game analysis. The government, the enterprise and other aspects have been raising their input intensity since our country reformed and opened up. As a result, R&D investment is increasing. However, compared with the developed countries', there is still a wide gap in total amount of capital investment. And scientific and technological input system is not perfect now. On the Seventeenth Meeting of National People's Congress, some comments were also put forward, such as speeding up the transformation of economic development, vigorously promoting the strategic adjustment of economic structure, paying more attention to improve the capability of independent innovation and building an innovation-oriented country, which require to improve further guidance and supervision of government's investment in science and technology. These measures will create a favorable policy environment and incentive mechanism, stimulate the enterprise's passion on R&D activities, increase R&D input and then improve the whole society's ability of technological innovation.
This paper reviews the existing theoretical approaches and introduces the status of R&D activities at home and abroad at first. Then some methods, such as correlation analysis, quasi-production function model, GM (1, N) model, game analysis and system dynamics and so on, are introduced. The editor mainly makes a study of delay analysis, effect analysis in the government's investment to the enterprise's investment by means of the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and explores the research and development using direction of the government's and the enterprise's R & D investment according to game theory. At last, by build system dynamics model, existing development mode should be adjusted according to the prediction results of system dynamics. And counter measures are put forward in accordance with above research results..
The main innovative results of this paper are as follows:
In time lag analysis of the government's investment in science and technology to the enterprise's investment, correlation analysis is introduced, that is to say, by means of correlation coefficient matrix analysis between ever the government's and the enterprise's investment in science and technology we get time-delay effect between both of them.
We make the improvement based on existing correlative studies, which means that we introduce quasi-production function model and synchronously GM (1, N) model to effect analysis of the effect of the government's investment in science and technology to the enterprise's investment and get more incredible results by the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis and contrast verification of the both.
We analyze optimal incentive contract with symmetry information and with asymmetric information based on game theory. Assumed that the government and the enterprise are given functions of risk aversion, function is educed ,then the equation is solved by four divisions and optimal risk-sharing contract is gotten meanwhile we compute the example.
System dynamics is introduced to the analysis of the government's investment in science and technology to the enterprise's investment. After analyzing every aspect of the government's and the enterprise's investment, we build system dynamics model of government-enterprise-society input system in science and technology and simulate the future Shandong provincial economics and science input. the existing data is adjusted by analyzing simulation results, and build input system in science and technology.
引文
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