大气扩散模型系统在山区中小城市空气质量预报中的应用
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摘要
开展城市大气污染物浓度的预测预报工作，准确地模拟城市区域排放污染物的扩散，是加强大气污染防治，实现环境综合管理和决策科学化的重要手段，对评价城市环境质量具有重要意义。本论文以云南省个旧市城区为实例，利用个旧市监测站宝华寺、少年宫、建安仓库监测子站监测的实际数据，以及云南省气象局提供的气象信息资料，研究影响个旧市城区的大气扩散的各种气象因素，大气污染物浓度变化与各种气象要素之间的关系。选用ADMS—EIA软件所提供的强大运算功能，多种作图能力和用户界面，选用适合于个旧市城区的大气污染物浓度的预测模式。介绍了大气污染物浓度预测的意义，国内外大气污染物浓度预测预报的研究现状及研究方法。初步探讨了ADMS技术在山区大气污染扩散预测中的应用。本文分析和研究了个旧市大气环境质量现状、污染物浓度地域分布特征与时空分布特征以及发展趋势。根据个旧市社会、经济、自然条件，研究个旧市的污染气象学特征和污染物排放情况，在ADMS技术支持下建立了个旧市大气多源污染扩散模型，利用2005年11月三个监测站点实际监测数据和模拟运算结果对比分析。由此建立的大气污染扩散模拟信息系统实现了大气污染扩散模拟结果的可视化表达。预测值与实测值对比，吻合程度77％达到国家要求的浓度预测的要求(误差＜60％)。
Precise prediction and simulation of air pollutants emission and diffusion in urban area are very important for air pollution control, comprehensive environmental management, scientific decision making and assessment of urban environmental quality. In this paper, urban area of Gejiu city in Yunnan province was taken as an example to research and analyze influences and relationship between fluctuation of air pollutants concentration and weather factors, with the field monitoring data of Baohua temple site, children center site and Jian'an warehouse site in Gejiu city, and weather data from Weather Bureau of Yunnan province. ADMS-EIA system with strong calculating and graphing capacity and many user interfaces was used to choose optimum prediction model of air pollutants concentration for urban area of Gejiu city. There were following three sections in this paper. Firstly, it was a introduction about significance, current domestic and international research of prediction of air pollutants concentration. And also, there was an initial discussion about application of modeling through ADMS system. Secondly, it was research and analysis about current air quality, space-time distribution characteristics of air pollutants and developing trend according to monitoring data of air environmental quality between 1998 and 2003 of Gejiu city. Finally, with the research of meteorology and air pollutants emission, a model of Gejiu city was established for diffusion prediction of multi air pollutants multi-source through ADMS system according to social, economic and natural conditions of Gejiu city. There was comparison and analysis between the field monitoring data of three monitoring sites in November, 2005 and modeling data. And also, visual expression of air pollutants diffusion was realized through the established simulation information system for air pollution diffusion.
Precise prediction and simulation of air pollutants emission and diffusion in urban area are very important for air pollution control, comprehensive environmental management, scientific decision making and assessment of urban environmental quality. In this paper, urban area of Gejiu city in Yunnan province was taken as an example to research and analyze influences and relationship between fluctuation of air pollutants concentration and weather factors, with the field monitoring data of Baohua temple site, children center site and Jian'an warehouse site in Gejiu city, and weather data from Weather Bureau of Yunnan province. ADMS-EIA system with strong calculating and graphing capacity and many user interfaces was used to choose optimum prediction model of air pollutants concentration for urban area of Gejiu city. There were following three sections in this paper. Firstly, it was a introduction about significance, current domestic and international research of prediction of air pollutants concentration. And also, there was an initial discussion about application of modeling through ADMS system. Secondly, it was research and analysis about current air quality, space-time distribution characteristics of air pollutants and developing trend according to monitoring data of air environmental quality between 1998 and 2003 of Gejiu city. Finally, with the research of meteorology and air pollutants emission, a model of Gejiu city was established for diffusion prediction of multi air pollutants multi-source through ADMS system according to social, economic and natural conditions of Gejiu city. There was comparison and analysis between the field monitoring data of three monitoring sites in November, 2005 and modeling data. And also, visual expression of air pollutants diffusion was realized through the established simulation information system for air pollution diffusion.
引文
[1] 牛文胜、孙振海．大气扩散模式的简要回顾．气象科技，2000，No．2：1-3
[2] 姚增权．国外新一代空气质量模式系统(一)．电力环境保护，1994，Vol．10，No3：39-41
[3] 刘烽、吴增茂．城市大气质量模式研究进展．环境科学进展，1999，Vol．7，No．2：22-30
[4] Steven R. Hanna and Joseph C. Chang, Hybrid Plume Dispersion Model Improvement and Testing at three field sites. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 27A,No. 9: 1491-1508
[5] 姚增权．国外新一代空气质量模式系统(二)．电力环境保护，1994，Vol．10，No．4：43-47
[6] Physick W. L. LADM Division of Atmospheric Research Technical Paper, 1994, No.24
[7] Kono H. Etal. Atmospheric Environment, 1990,24B(2): 243-260
[8] 姚增权．国外新一代空气质量模式系统(三)．电力环境保护，1994，Vol．11，No．9：41-43
[9] 网址www.epa.org
[10] 王介民．美国国家环保局现行大气质量模式的特点与应用．高原大气，1998，Vol．1，No．7：33-36
[11] 网址:http://pc510.ev.ncku.edu.tw/models3/models3-02-feature.html
[12] 国家环境保护局．环境影响评价技术导则(HJ／P2.1-2.3-1993)，北京，中国标准出版社，1994．
[13] 陆书玉等．环境影响评价．北京，高等教育出版社，2001．
[14] 国家环境保护局、中国环境科学院，城市大气污染总量控制方法手册．北京．中国环境科学出版社，1991．
[15] 中国科学院大气物理研究所．空气污染数值预报模式系统．北京，气象出版社，1999．
[16] 谷清．我国大气模式计算的若干问题．环境科学研究，2000，Vol．13，No．1：40-43
[20] 刘烽、吴增茂．城市大气质量模式研究进展．环境科学进展，1999ⅡVol．7，No．2：22-30
[21] A. L. Malcolm ,A.3. Manning, Testing the skill of a Lagrangian dispersion model at estimating primary and secondary particulates, Atmospheric Environment,Vo1.35:1677-1685
[22] Hanna S. R. and Paine R. J. Hybrid Plume Dispersion Model (HPDM) Development and Evaluation. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1989, 28: 206-224.
[23] Hanna, S. R. and Chang, J. Hybrid Plume Dispersion Model (HPDM) Improvements and Testing at Three Field Sites. Atmospheric Environment, 1993, 24A(9): 1491-1508.
[24] Carruthers D. J., EdmundsH. A., McHughC. A., et al. ARMS Urban-an Integrated Air Quality Modelling System for Local Government. In: Power, H., Tirabassi, T.,Brebbia, C. A, Air Pollution V: Modeling, Monitoring and Management. Southamption, Boston: Computational Mechanics, 1997: 44-58
[25] 个旧市环保局．个旧市大气环境容量核算技术报告．2004
[26] 云南省县市区地图集．湖南地图出版社．湖南，2004
[27] 剑桥环境研究公司(CERC)．ADMS-环评(ADMS-EIA)大气质量评价系统用户手册．2002．1．
[28] Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants Ltd. ADMS-EIA technical summary. 2002, 2
[29] HUNTJ.C.R. Turbulent diffusion from sources in complex of lows. Ann. Rev. Fluid. Mech. 1985,17:447-485.
[30] Weil, J. C. Updating applied-diffusion models.J. Clim. Appl. Met. 1985,24:1111-1130.
[31] 佟彦超．我国进行空气污染预测预报的方法及其研究中的几个问题，第七届全国环境科学大会论文集，北京，1998．11
[32] X.F.Zhang et al. Data assimilation in transport models. Appl. Math. Modelling, 1997:12-13
[33] 周苏平等．大气污染预测预报研究．重庆环境科学，1995．5：33-3
[34] 朱发庆等．面源长期平均浓度的新算法．中国环境科学，1997．8：340-34
[35] 林肇信等．大气污染控制工程．高等教育出版社，1991
[36] Andrew Riddle, David Carruthers, Alan Sharpe. Comparisons between FLUENT and ADMS for atmospheric dispersion modelling, Atmospheric Environment,2004, voL38: 1029-1038
[37] 印晓峰、蔡旭辉等．稳定近地面层Monin-Obukhov长度的解析解．北京大学学报(自然科学版)，2005．3，voL41，No2．
[38] 羌宁主编．城市空气质量管理与控制．科学出版社，2003．2：75-104
[39] D.J.Carruthers,A.M.Mckeown, D.J.Hall, Validation of ADMS against wind tunnd data of dispersion from chemical warehouse fires, Atmospheric Environment, 1999, voL33:1937-1953
[40] 张勇，赵守军，韦再华．SAS(V8)速成[M]．石家庄河北科学技术出版社，2002．
[2] 姚增权．国外新一代空气质量模式系统(一)．电力环境保护，1994，Vol．10，No3：39-41
[3] 刘烽、吴增茂．城市大气质量模式研究进展．环境科学进展，1999，Vol．7，No．2：22-30
[4] Steven R. Hanna and Joseph C. Chang, Hybrid Plume Dispersion Model Improvement and Testing at three field sites. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 27A,No. 9: 1491-1508
[5] 姚增权．国外新一代空气质量模式系统(二)．电力环境保护，1994，Vol．10，No．4：43-47
[6] Physick W. L. LADM Division of Atmospheric Research Technical Paper, 1994, No.24
[7] Kono H. Etal. Atmospheric Environment, 1990,24B(2): 243-260
[8] 姚增权．国外新一代空气质量模式系统(三)．电力环境保护，1994，Vol．11，No．9：41-43
[9] 网址www.epa.org
[10] 王介民．美国国家环保局现行大气质量模式的特点与应用．高原大气，1998，Vol．1，No．7：33-36
[11] 网址:http://pc510.ev.ncku.edu.tw/models3/models3-02-feature.html
[12] 国家环境保护局．环境影响评价技术导则(HJ／P2.1-2.3-1993)，北京，中国标准出版社，1994．
[13] 陆书玉等．环境影响评价．北京，高等教育出版社，2001．
[14] 国家环境保护局、中国环境科学院，城市大气污染总量控制方法手册．北京．中国环境科学出版社，1991．
[15] 中国科学院大气物理研究所．空气污染数值预报模式系统．北京，气象出版社，1999．
[16] 谷清．我国大气模式计算的若干问题．环境科学研究，2000，Vol．13，No．1：40-43
[20] 刘烽、吴增茂．城市大气质量模式研究进展．环境科学进展，1999ⅡVol．7，No．2：22-30
[21] A. L. Malcolm ,A.3. Manning, Testing the skill of a Lagrangian dispersion model at estimating primary and secondary particulates, Atmospheric Environment,Vo1.35:1677-1685
[22] Hanna S. R. and Paine R. J. Hybrid Plume Dispersion Model (HPDM) Development and Evaluation. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1989, 28: 206-224.
[23] Hanna, S. R. and Chang, J. Hybrid Plume Dispersion Model (HPDM) Improvements and Testing at Three Field Sites. Atmospheric Environment, 1993, 24A(9): 1491-1508.
[24] Carruthers D. J., EdmundsH. A., McHughC. A., et al. ARMS Urban-an Integrated Air Quality Modelling System for Local Government. In: Power, H., Tirabassi, T.,Brebbia, C. A, Air Pollution V: Modeling, Monitoring and Management. Southamption, Boston: Computational Mechanics, 1997: 44-58
[25] 个旧市环保局．个旧市大气环境容量核算技术报告．2004
[26] 云南省县市区地图集．湖南地图出版社．湖南，2004
[27] 剑桥环境研究公司(CERC)．ADMS-环评(ADMS-EIA)大气质量评价系统用户手册．2002．1．
[28] Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants Ltd. ADMS-EIA technical summary. 2002, 2
[29] HUNTJ.C.R. Turbulent diffusion from sources in complex of lows. Ann. Rev. Fluid. Mech. 1985,17:447-485.
[30] Weil, J. C. Updating applied-diffusion models.J. Clim. Appl. Met. 1985,24:1111-1130.
[31] 佟彦超．我国进行空气污染预测预报的方法及其研究中的几个问题，第七届全国环境科学大会论文集，北京，1998．11
[32] X.F.Zhang et al. Data assimilation in transport models. Appl. Math. Modelling, 1997:12-13
[33] 周苏平等．大气污染预测预报研究．重庆环境科学，1995．5：33-3
[34] 朱发庆等．面源长期平均浓度的新算法．中国环境科学，1997．8：340-34
[35] 林肇信等．大气污染控制工程．高等教育出版社，1991
[36] Andrew Riddle, David Carruthers, Alan Sharpe. Comparisons between FLUENT and ADMS for atmospheric dispersion modelling, Atmospheric Environment,2004, voL38: 1029-1038
[37] 印晓峰、蔡旭辉等．稳定近地面层Monin-Obukhov长度的解析解．北京大学学报(自然科学版)，2005．3，voL41，No2．
[38] 羌宁主编．城市空气质量管理与控制．科学出版社，2003．2：75-104
[39] D.J.Carruthers,A.M.Mckeown, D.J.Hall, Validation of ADMS against wind tunnd data of dispersion from chemical warehouse fires, Atmospheric Environment, 1999, voL33:1937-1953
[40] 张勇，赵守军，韦再华．SAS(V8)速成[M]．石家庄河北科学技术出版社，2002．